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I JUST KNOW makes zero appeal, trainer is 0/20 last 2 weeks and its been 203 days since Sue Smith last had a winner. She is 0/14 with chasers here.
Carries top weight and has fell in its last 2 chases and was last of 10 over hurdles last time. Still 12lb above best winning mark and that was over 6f further. No hope whstsoever.
ARTHURS GIFT has twice ran on heavy being pulled up and unplaced. Closely matched with LOOKSNOWTLIKEBRIAN but the latter is unbeaten over fences on heavy from 2 runs. He can make mistakes but should beat ARTHURS GIFT under these conditions.
Neither will be involved in the finish.
CALIPPSO COTTAGE is only 2lb above his best winning mark though that came in a class 3 novice chase and this is much tougher. Track doesnt suit and was beaten over 60 lengths on previous chase run here. He was also unplaced and well beat in both career runs in class 2. Trainer not in best of form and wont be involved in the finish.
GRACEFUL LEGEND. All wins have come over shorter and on either good or gd/sft, although won off just 2lb lower she had a 5lb claimer on that time so effectively is 7lb higher here. Trainer 0/7 with chasers here last 5 years and the mare is confidently ruled out.
CLASSIC BEN may need this run, he does have good form in thr book and won a class 2 handicap as a novice against experienced handicappers. Last 2 wins came at rh tracks and probably slightly better that way. He is also unproven on heavy ground and can make mistakes, Bangor fences are quite tough and today wont be his day. He is also the youngest aged 6 and no horse younger than 7 has ever won this.
COMMODORE is a progressive handicapper trained by Venetia Williams. He has a Ladbrokes trophy entry and would assumingly need to win today if he was to get into that race with any kind of chance. He is a front runner and this track favours prominent racers. He is open to any ammount of improvement after just 4 chase starts and is potentially a high class horse. Venetia has won 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race including with the high class YALA ENKI last year.
Many positives and may end up being too good.
However is 13lb higher than for his best win class 3 last time, but he was ridden by a useful 7lb claimer that time so is effectively 20lb higher up in grade to class 2 on his first run of the season. Handles heavy ground though has been beaten in all 5 runs on it though 4 of those runs were hurdles and he is a chaser. The other one was in france when just starting out.
Could hack up but may be vulnerable to one horse here.
'KING' KAYF ADVENTURE is usually held up which are tactics that dont suit this track. He has won 2 of his 10 chases. 5 defeats under Richard Johnson and 3 chase defeats under Nolan but on the 2 occasions Tom O'Brien rode he won comfortably and was ridden prominently.
Expect Tom to ride prominently once again and track Commodore and a big performance can be expected here. I expect these 2 to have the race between them a fair way from home and pull away from the field.
KAYF ADVENTURE is son of KAYF TARA who knocks up heavy ground lovers for fun. KAYF ADVENTURE has won 3 times and been 2nd from 5 runs on heavy and excels on the ground.
Although held by CLASSIC BEN at Sandown on gd/sft he wasnt being ridden to win there where as he will be here. He is unproven over 3m but should relish it here. He is only 3lb above his best winning mark and has a big chance on this ground.
Hobbs is in good form and this is the only runner he sends to Bangor on wednesday. Hobbs has a 24% all time strike rate with chasers here. 8yos have won 3 of the 6 runnings of the race and he looks certain to be top 2 and may well win.
He won 1st time out last season.
Big chance 9/1 a great price in what looks a 2 horse race. Even though he fell last time he is normally a very good jumper.
Classic Ben worked with Now McCginty and he was 2nd to Santini who is one of the gold cup favourites.
a) Santini was abysmal when Now was 2nd to him
b) I could work for Microsoft but it wouldnt make me bill gates. Completely irrrlevant he worked with the awful Now Mcginty.
Incredible how powerful the media is in causing mug gambles like this.
'KING' KAYF ADVENTURE was 1st and 2nd in class 2 company but that was as a novice taking on experienced high class handicappers.
He will probably be capable of winning at least a grade 3 on heavy ground this season and looks thrown in today. Has the class and experience already but plenty more to come as a 2nd season chaser and he is one hell of a dangerous horse today on the absolute bog at bangor with any ammount of improvement to come over this kind of trip.
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