Cheltenham November Meeting Antepost discussion

[YoungHustler]

A great weekend of racing to look forward and 2 big handicaps at Cheltenham which I absolutely love trying to work out. Declarations are now out for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the 6 places on offer by Hills, Sky and PP makes it even more enticing to search for bigger price horses although I think it's more of a trap by the bookies as most at the front of the betting will place IMO.

I'm already on Saint Sonnet at 20s but after checking, I only have half what I thought I had on so I want to go in again. I just think SS is a well handicapped horse. Nicholls must think plenty of him to have pitched him in the Marsh on only his second start for him after only joining the yard at the end of January. He will receive 7lbs from Mister Fisher for a 9l beating but I think the long term plan for this race will make him better prepared than he was at the time of the Marsh thus giving him the nod over Mister Fisher IMO.

Simply The Betts did well for me last year. I was going to leave him alone as I felt the 8lb rise after winning The Plate may just mean he is now too high in the handicap but I've now backed him after comments from his trainer and watching his races gain. Originally, I didn't like the fact that a very good yardstick in Happy Diva was so close to him in the Plate and now he is much higher in the weights. However, if he had not hit the last hard, he would have won more comfortably. I also think that he is not a horse that is ever going to win by miles as he just travels within himself but then really really responds to pressure and the jockey's urgings when required. The last thing that swayed me was that Whittington mentioned that he doesn't feel Simply The Betts was at his best at Cheltenham(good enough though!) and reports by people who have visited the yard in saying that the horse looks stronger this year. I think he'll start a strong favourite and the current 5s is a certain each way bet to nothing IMO.

Third bet is on Siruh Du Lac. Maybe more of a bet with the heart than head as he was so good 2 seasons ago and won me plenty including at Cheltenham. I don't think last year's running was his true self as I'm not sure if he got injured or not so I would ignore that run. LTO, he was running a big race in the Plate when falling 2 out. You can't say for sure how much he had left as the pace was quickening at the time and he's just more of a strong galloper with stamina. I'm hoping the nasty fall has not left a mark and that he is still improving as only 7 years old and that a change in yard will have added improvement also.

Topped up on Saint Sonnet in a Farouk D'Alene double. Andy Holding(oddschecker podcast) seems quite sweet on Mister Fisher but I'm happy with SS due to the weight difference and better prep for this race compared to their running in the Marsh. Would not put anyone off Mister Fisher though as the case for him against Simply The Betts is quite compelling in that the time and sectionals of the Marsh were much better than the Plate. Both were run on the same day. I wouldn't be put off by the potential soft ground either as he ran well in the Marsh on soft.

A bigger price horse who I was looking at when he was 20s this morning was The Russian Doyen but I was put off by Tizzard's form. Also, you've got to ask yourself do these outsider's really stand a chance of winning? If not, you're hoping they're going to place when, IMO, the likes of SS, MF, Simply, Siruh and Happy Diva are very likely to place.

[opatcho]

Goodwood - hate putting up the fav but trainer focussing on winning big one this season
Proschema
Unexposed, down in the weight, ran well on first run, trainer and jockey combo a big plus

[FinalFurlong91]

Taken 7/1 with 365

Well the money is down on mossy fen

Iv done my bit in getting the price now for the hard bit haha

[Eggs]

....free ?5 with PP on the 1.50 today, I’ve backed Eamon an Cnoic so many times it feels like I own it’s back leg.

[Eggs]

Goodwood - hate putting up the fav but trainer focussing on winning big one this season
Proschema
Unexposed, down in the weight, ran well on first run, trainer and jockey combo a big plus

....Hills have a 320-1 (with boost) RaB for Proschema to win Greatwood and County Hurdle.

[fjadmin]

Racecard and a few zoom previews https://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-november-meeting/

[opatcho]

....Hills have a 320-1 (with boost) RaB for Proschema to win Greatwood and County Hurdle.

Goneeee! 150/1 now.

[charlie]

Chucking it down here in Cheltenham and today is supposed to be the nice day of the three!

[Bonjers]

Some jumping performance from Magic Saint there - foot perfect.

[Might_Bite]

Bryan C jocked up claiming 5lbs that’ll do lads

Gwarn the Saint

[Old Vic]

Anything to beat the top 2 in the X Country ? Hardly top of eithers plans this season

Boilover. Good ride that.

[FinalFurlong91]

Hopefully potters corner runs in the cross country at the December meeting

Ran well today on his first go on ground that wouldn't suit

Get him back on some soft ground with that under his belt and he'll have a good chance

[nortonscoin200]

The Paddy Power tomorrow is a tricky one to work out with so many fancied horses at the top of the handicap - and many of them having their first run of the season.

Add to that the weather forecast - Cheltenham is expected to get almost half an inch of rain before racing tomorrow.

I love Happy Diva to bits and reckon she'll finish in the first six but I can't quite see her winning off this mark - although she does have the advantage of a decent prep run and loves Cheltenham.

But 14-1 doesn't quite do it for me. I'll almost certainly regret it.

So I've gone way left-field and stuck 1pt each way on Domaine De Lisle at 55-1 with PP boost.

He also had a prep run 3 weeks ago over hurdles at Cheltenham. It wasn't great and I didn't even dare watch a re-run because I knew it would put me off backing him!!!

But he has done most of his winning on soft ground which is very likely tomorrow.

His trainer Sean Curran has had 2 winners this week.

And if you look back to last season when DDL ran up a hat-trick of chase wins over a similar distance (on soft, soft, heavy) he is clearly no mug when conditions suit.

The last of those victories was in the 47k Bet365 Chase at Ascot in January when DDL had Happy Diva (giving 6lbs) 9 lengths back in 4th and Kildisart (giving 13lbs) tailed off in sixth.

That was off a 6lbs lower mark but DDL is only a seven-year-old so you would hope there is improvement to come. The fact that he had a prep over hurdles shows the stable have obviously made this race an early season target.

DDL seems to be a hold-up merchant who stays on well over this trip - it's just a question of whether it's in his own time or to mount a challenge!!! But Sean Bowen's in the saddle and if he's in with a chance at the last there are few young jockeys around who can get more out of a horse in a finish in my view.

And if he finishes 6th I'll be a very happy bunny and better off than if I'd had an each way bet on the Diva and she winds up second.

*I'm probably going to feel pretty stupid reading this back at 2.30pm tomorrow.

[Saxon Warrior]

The forecast for rain at Chelters looks plentiful from Saturday morning through racing, and a dose more on Sunday morning too.

If it turns soft or worse, it’s possible that the trainer could pull Rouge Vif out, as he has stated that the horse has a preference for decent ground.

[Outlaw]

The forecast for rain at Chelters looks plentiful from Saturday morning through racing, and a dose more on Sunday morning too.

If it turns soft or worse, it’s possible that the trainer could pull Rouge Vif out, as he has stated that the horse has a preference for decent ground.

Edwardstone in the greatwood might be in the same position.