Cheltenham November Meeting Antepost discussion

[Outlaw]

Paddy giving everyone a ?5 free bet on that race

Cheers for the heads up, gives me chance to cover something and potentially get the stake back should he not go in.

[Diamond Geezer]

Saturday's declarations

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2020-11-14

[Outlaw]

Saturday's declarations

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...ham/2020-11-14

Pleased to see Son of Camas declared, beat the price now the hard part, winning it. Really should be competitive off 133 imo.

[charlie]

Love the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase and think I may have found an 'interesting' angle .

Saint Sonnet doesn’t interest me. I understand the appeal, but I don’t like backing 5-year olds in this race and SS is too inexperienced and short IMO to be on my radar. Mr Fisher is an interesting horse because the ground looks like it’s going to be good – not sure if he’s the type of horse that needs a run and 5/1 is too short for me. Simply The Betts is the most exciting horse in the race IMO and the one that may go on to achieve the most, but I think he wants soft/heavy ground and he’s not getting that Saturday so 9/2 is too short. Al Dancer– never liked the horse, far too prone to jump errors and overhyped. Siruh Du Lac – loves making all round Cheltenham and had every opportunity to do exactly that last year but just faded away - I can’t see how he’ll turn the tables in a deeper race this year. Happy Diva is interesting and 10/1 seems fair. I was slightly concerned she only raced 15 days prior to this but then realised that’s exactly what she did last year, so no issues.

The horse I’ve landed on (for my sins) is Slate House (I'm not actually pissed haha). I have backed him on the nose @ 10/1 which is might not be most people’s cup of tea. Based on what I’m about to write he should probably be bigger before becoming an attractive betting opportunity, but I think the bet here is backing him in play after he’s jumped (or hit) the first 2-3 fences and his price has drifted out.

Bit of an essay, but here we go:

Slate House isn't the most comfortable watch if you've ever backed him - trust me, I know! The Tizzard/Power strategy time and time again is to ride him cold, deliver him late (or not at all as is sometimes the case ). Slate House has a tendency to travel quite lazily out the back in the early stages of a race and he often brushes through a few forcing Robbie to push him along quite early. Last year’s race is a prime example of this, and the in-play market punishes him accordingly by pushing him out in price.

8's/10's might not tickle your fancy but 20's plus in running certainly should, based on last year’s run alone. He made loads of iffy mistakes and didn't really look comfortable for the first 75% of the race. He then crept into contention, turns in looking full of running and I think he would have won before falling, but certainly would have been bang there. IMO you cannot race like that round Cheltenham and be where he was towards the finish without being a good horse, and the Tizzard's, with their overly ambitious comments and entries in races like the King George, clearly think he is a very good horse (appreciate that doesn't mean much coming from them).

Robbie rode Slate House last year like an absolute master - he knows the horses quirks, he doesn't panic when it looks like he should, and he delivers the horse late like a very good horse when it doesn't look like he should be there at all. Whilst Slate Houses' Cheltenham form is scattered at best, he knows how to win round Cheltenham and I think he's a good in play bet, and definitely a good in play back to lay proposition, for those that are in to that kind of thing.

Slate House was 3/6 last season and if standing, would have been 4/6 IMO in this race. I am not convinced Slate House fully see’s out 3m but is right on the cusp, which sort of leaves him in no man’s land at G1 level where he’s simply not good enough. Even though he pulled up in the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase in January, I thought he did well to be involved for as long as he was, and it proves my point re him over 3m. I think intermediate trips will be his bag moving forward. The ground on Saturday will be fine, and I actually think it will suit him. Hopefully good ground means he’ll get a decent pace to aim at and hopefully his stamina can come to the fore and be delivered late.

It's definitely a deeper race this year than it was last year, and whilst it goes without saying that horses like Simply The Betts and Mister Fisher come into the race far less exposed with upwardly mobile profiles, how often are horses like that winning this race in recent years? This is a race being won by Caid Du Berlais, Annacotty, Splash of Ginge, Baron Alco, Happy Diva - none of them achieved much (barring perhaps Annacotty who incidentally won the Kauto Star Novices Chase at Kempton like Slate House), but they are the tough types with plenty of Cheltenham experience, not necessarily the classier types you look more to with March in mind. I think Slate House has a similar type of profile and he does all his winning pre-Xmas, so this is the time of season to catch him.

Do I think Slate House will ever be good enough to dine at the top table, no, but I think he can find his level in a race like this

10/1 on the nose and a bigg’ish in play bet after the first few have been jumped is my play.

Could blow up in my face , could look like a freaking genius (or he could fall at the last and crush souls ).

[Lobos]

Saturday's declarations

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...ham/2020-11-14

Great to see mare Zarkareva entered. Mare Kettle won it for Henry last year with Aidan Coleman jocked up. Same combo this year. If Fusils beats her giving a stone I'll be amazed. She's a real improver since changing tactics and being held up. Aidan will sit and pounce.

[YoungHustler]

A great weekend of racing to look forward and 2 big handicaps at Cheltenham which I absolutely love trying to work out. Declarations are now out for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the 6 places on offer by Hills, Sky and PP makes it even more enticing to search for bigger price horses although I think it's more of a trap by the bookies as most at the front of the betting will place IMO.

I'm already on Saint Sonnet at 20s but after checking, I only have half what I thought I had on so I want to go in again. I just think SS is a well handicapped horse. Nicholls must think plenty of him to have pitched him in the Marsh on only his second start for him after only joining the yard at the end of January. He will receive 7lbs from Mister Fisher for a 9l beating but I think the long term plan for this race will make him better prepared than he was at the time of the Marsh thus giving him the nod over Mister Fisher IMO.

Simply The Betts did well for me last year. I was going to leave him alone as I felt the 8lb rise after winning The Plate may just mean he is now too high in the handicap but I've now backed him after comments from his trainer and watching his races gain. Originally, I didn't like the fact that a very good yardstick in Happy Diva was so close to him in the Plate and now he is much higher in the weights. However, if he had not hit the last hard, he would have won more comfortably. I also think that he is not a horse that is ever going to win by miles as he just travels within himself but then really really responds to pressure and the jockey's urgings when required. The last thing that swayed me was that Whittington mentioned that he doesn't feel Simply The Betts was at his best at Cheltenham(good enough though!) and reports by people who have visited the yard in saying that the horse looks stronger this year. I think he'll start a strong favourite and the current 5s is a certain each way bet to nothing IMO.

Third bet is on Siruh Du Lac. Maybe more of a bet with the heart than head as he was so good 2 seasons ago and won me plenty including at Cheltenham. I don't think last year's running was his true self as I'm not sure if he got injured or not so I would ignore that run. LTO, he was running a big race in the Plate when falling 2 out. You can't say for sure how much he had left as the pace was quickening at the time and he's just more of a strong galloper with stamina. I'm hoping the nasty fall has not left a mark and that he is still improving as only 7 years old and that a change in yard will have added improvement also.

[FinalFurlong91]

Prolonged period of heavy rain due to hit the track on Saturday morning/early afternoon

As a Mr Fisher backer this tempers my enthusiasm slightly

[Spectre]

Sky Pirate is a great each way double bet with the Masters. He's 20/1 and he'll finish second to whatever wins! Skybet 6 places for this and 11 places for the Masters.

I've done him with DJ, Rahm, Hatton, Cantlay and Kokrak.

[Outlaw]

Sky Pirate is a great each way double bet with the Masters. He's 20/1 and he'll finish second to whatever wins! Skybet 6 places for this and 11 places for the Masters.

I've done him with DJ, Rahm, Hatton, Cantlay and Kokrak.

Sky pirate must trade odds on every race, such a bridle merchant the bugger, caught plenty out including myself twice

[Outlaw]

Had looked at the last race before decs and wasn't drawn in by too much. I do like the form lines of Leroy but when on the flat he struggled on undulating tracks so i'm happy to watch him for now. Obvious to see why Bees is fav given string of 1s and trainer does well on these quieter Cheltenham days, the yards other runner at 14/1 has drawn me in thou(Art Approval)he's been ridden with off the pace both times in this country and clearly will stay further in time. He was a tad unlucky lto when at this track when clattering the faller 2 out and thou wouldn't have won ran on up to the line still despite that. Given he has a bit of course experience,will relish a bigger field(hopefully true pace) and will be staying on well near the end under a patient Paddy,14/1 enough for me to get involved.

[Faugheen_Machine]

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Third bet is on Siruh Du Lac. Maybe more of a bet with the heart than head as he was so good 2 seasons ago and won me plenty including at Cheltenham. I don't think last year's running was his true self as I'm not sure if he got injured or not so I would ignore that run. LTO, he was running a big race in the Plate when falling 2 out. You can't say for sure how much he had left as the pace was quickening at the time and he's just more of a strong galloper with stamina. I'm hoping the nasty fall has not left a mark and that he is still improving as only 7 years old and that a change in yard will have added improvement also.

I was mad keen on SDL last season when he was pulled up but Lizzie Kelly got into a pace battle and he was completely knackered by the top of the hill.

He was bang in contention when he fell in the Plate and, if was was going to be beaten, I'd be sure it wouldn't have been by far.

He's good fresh, the move to Pipe might bring some improvement, Tom Scu is an upgrade and the wind op may have helped too.

There are negatives; all wins have been on the New Course and he bombed in this last season but I'm choosing to ignore them.

Got a little at 20s but Skybet are going 6 places and he'll do for me for a decent top up.

[isitmarchyet]

Can't quite settle on anything for the PP Gold Cup. Have Saint Sonnet at a decent price but feel there's some EW value in there somewhere. Couple of cliff horses for me in Spiritofthegames and Aso, but think I'll leave them this time. Happy Diva probably the most appealing...

[Outlaw]

Can't quite settle on anything for the PP Gold Cup. Have Saint Sonnet at a decent price but feel there's some EW value in there somewhere. Couple of cliff horses for me in Spiritofthegames and Aso, but think I'll leave them this time. Happy Diva probably the most appealing...

In the exact same position, SS had ended up ridiculously short on potential hype really. I still don't see much to get stuck into & I usually love a e/w roll up into the greatwood. Looks a watching brief for me with a bonus If SS does oblige.

[The King Pimm]

I had originally fancied Mister Fisher for the Bet Victor Gold Cup but the ground looks to go against him and Henderson has a dreadful record in this race. Saint Sonnet is too short for what he’s achieved so I’m backing 3 but on the day as I got stung for not qualifying for BOG last year after putting my bets on too early. I’m going for an ‘S’ theme and backing Slate House, Simply The Betts and Siruh du Lac. All 3 horse have Cheltenham experience but the stats are against Slate House but Siruh Du Lac and Simply The Betts do match a number of key race trends in that they are 7 years old, don’t have a mark above 150, have course form. These will be my 3 choices, I may bet them on the nose though unless they drift out

[opatcho]

With you guys here, I'm torn and mainly because I'm on Saint Sonnet with a AP bet so difficult right now to really put my name on something with confidence

This rain aswell could be a headache

I really want someone that ran already this season, unless they have proven form going well fresh I really dont want to back it - which means the top 3-4 should be scratched but I have a feeling that approach will haunt me

Surprisingly, I'm liking Coole Cody who could be hiding under his handicap mark

The more I look at Slate House the more I want to back him, and it annoying me! He's one of those horses, I back him he loses, I lay him he wins. FFS. Colin's yard appears to be needing a run so I really cant be having him - the remote will be going in the direction of the Tele if Slate House powers through the field to lead over the last