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KALSHNIKOV - Has won 1st time up all 3 seasons of his career. Was last seen winning a novice grade 1 over this CD. This is by far his toughest race of his career. Its his first chase run outside of novice company racing against much more battle hardened high class chasers. He has a definite chance though is much too short in the betting to be of interest. He can make mistakes and in the 15 previous runnings of this race only 2 6yos won and both were Nichols trained (Kauto Star and Frodon last year).
FRODON won this last year from a matk of 158. He has to carry 11-10 and races off 169 this year in a tougher looking race. Only Kauto Star and Monets Garden managed to win this carrying 11-10 but both won off lower ratings, Kauto off 167 and Monets off 159. This shows us just what a huge ask it is for Frodon to win this off 169. He is quite a small horse as well. A great jumper and showed massive improvement last season though this is his toughest test yet and he will need to be one of the alltime greats to pass this test. A superb horse but at 100/30 absolutely not for me.
SAINT CALVADOS has also won 1st time up in all 3 of his seasons but he is only 6 and needs testing ground to show his best and he wont get that here. Probably wont run but will be beat if he does.
MCGROATY has always needed his 1st run back, he races off a lifetime high mark in the highest grade he has ever ran at. All of his wins have come at lower grade yracks such as Kelso, Worcester, Stratford, Uttoxeter, Southwell and Huntingdon. He is surely out of his comfprt zone in this grade from this mark and 1st time up.
BORN SURVIVOR goes well fresh but is racing from a mark 10lb higher than his best win and in the highest grade he has raced at. He was beaten in both previous hurdles races at Aintree and although the trip and flat track does suit him he is surely vulnerable here especially as the yard isnt fully firing at present.
FOREST BIHAN is well handicapped on 149 and he did win at Kelso off 154 a few years ago. Ellison is in top form and he can go well fresh. He looks a 2mile specialist however and his best form has come on testing,undulating tracks in lower grades. If he can run to his best over this distance he definitely has a chance but that is an if and I am against him.
ULTRAGOLD is 11yo now and better over further as such he is much more likely to take his chance in the 3m1f veterans chase on the same card than come here. If he does come here he stands little chance of winning.
FLYING ANGEL won a grade 1 novice over CD but was well beaten in this race last year off 145. He probably needs further now though is potentially well handicapped. Likely to struggle however.
GO LONG looks out of his depth here and lacks experience.
BIG MATRE has won 1st time up in October before, his best performance came when last seen winning pff 140. He has to race off 148 this time which requires a career best though he has a useful claimer booked taking 3lb off. He likes a flat track, the trip and ground are ideal. He carries a nice low weight of just 10-3, trainers in form, jockey is 3/9 on chasers for trainer, horse is a good jumper and he must surely have ahugr chance of winning this race getting so much weight from the principals.
EW - BIGMARTRE 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
Only 2 places available on thr antepost as quite a few of these will not be running. BIG 'Bad' MARTRE most certainly will run and could well go off around 7/2 on the day. Huge chance and outstanding bet.
FRODON won this last year from a matk of 158. He has to carry 11-10 and races off 169 this year in a tougher looking race. Only Kauto Star and Monets Garden managed to win this carrying 11-10 but both won off lower ratings, Kauto off 167 and Monets off 159. This shows us just what a huge ask it is for Frodon to win this off 169. He is quite a small horse as well. A great jumper and showed massive improvement last season though this is his toughest test yet and he will need to be one of the alltime greats to pass this test. A superb horse but at 100/30 absolutely not for me.
SAINT CALVADOS has also won 1st time up in all 3 of his seasons but he is only 6 and needs testing ground to show his best and he wont get that here. Probably wont run but will be beat if he does.
MCGROATY has always needed his 1st run back, he races off a lifetime high mark in the highest grade he has ever ran at. All of his wins have come at lower grade yracks such as Kelso, Worcester, Stratford, Uttoxeter, Southwell and Huntingdon. He is surely out of his comfprt zone in this grade from this mark and 1st time up.
BORN SURVIVOR goes well fresh but is racing from a mark 10lb higher than his best win and in the highest grade he has raced at. He was beaten in both previous hurdles races at Aintree and although the trip and flat track does suit him he is surely vulnerable here especially as the yard isnt fully firing at present.
FOREST BIHAN is well handicapped on 149 and he did win at Kelso off 154 a few years ago. Ellison is in top form and he can go well fresh. He looks a 2mile specialist however and his best form has come on testing,undulating tracks in lower grades. If he can run to his best over this distance he definitely has a chance but that is an if and I am against him.
ULTRAGOLD is 11yo now and better over further as such he is much more likely to take his chance in the 3m1f veterans chase on the same card than come here. If he does come here he stands little chance of winning.
FLYING ANGEL won a grade 1 novice over CD but was well beaten in this race last year off 145. He probably needs further now though is potentially well handicapped. Likely to struggle however.
GO LONG looks out of his depth here and lacks experience.
BIG MATRE has won 1st time up in October before, his best performance came when last seen winning pff 140. He has to race off 148 this time which requires a career best though he has a useful claimer booked taking 3lb off. He likes a flat track, the trip and ground are ideal. He carries a nice low weight of just 10-3, trainers in form, jockey is 3/9 on chasers for trainer, horse is a good jumper and he must surely have ahugr chance of winning this race getting so much weight from the principals.
EW - BIGMARTRE 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
Only 2 places available on thr antepost as quite a few of these will not be running. BIG 'Bad' MARTRE most certainly will run and could well go off around 7/2 on the day. Huge chance and outstanding bet.
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