Champions Day October 19th

[Quevega]

Never really understood this sort of Calculation. A winner is a winner in my book. All about the stake.

One of the stupidest things I've heard you say !
I'll let you off with "a winner is a winner" as that's pretty much fact. Your book must be full of facts like that.
But the rest of your comments are alarming.

No One can ever be certain of a winner. Fact.
But you can have a pretty good idea (with sufficient knowledge) if you're getting better odds than the real chances of the horse winning.

Betting premium priced horse's in the long run will end in tears. You cannot possibly win long term because you're simply paying over the odds each time.

And if when you're referring to stake, you're suggesting that you put more money on underpriced horses then that's even worse.

[Lobos]

One of the stupidest things I've heard you say !
I'll let you off with "a winner is a winner" as that's pretty much fact. Your book must be full of facts like that.
But the rest of your comments are alarming.

No One can ever be certain of a winner. Fact.
But you can have a pretty good idea (with sufficient knowledge) if you're getting better odds than the real chances of the horse winning.

Betting premium priced horse's in the long run will end in tears. You cannot possibly win long term because you're simply paying over the odds each time.

And if when you're referring to stake, you're suggesting that you put more money on underpriced horses then that's even worse.

I hear what you say and agree to a point but my feeling is if you study a race and come up with one that you feel is the winner, whilst the price may put you off you shouldn't then go looking for another horse in the same race at a bigger price. Probably best to leave that race alone altogether.

[Quevega]

I hear what you say and agree to a point but my feeling is if you study a race and come up with one that you feel is the winner, whilst the price may put you off you shouldn't then go looking for another horse in the same race at a bigger price. Probably best to leave that race alone altogether.

Kind of understand that.
But it's rare to look at any race and only see one potential winner. If you do, then the price wouldn't matter as much, and if it did then you're right to leave it alone.
But in 99.9% of horse races there is more than one potential winner. So it has to be about price.
Pretty sure that's what FM was referring too.

[Kevloaf]

ONE MASTER 25/1 Champion Sprint
CAPE BYRON 12/1 Champion Sprint


ROYAL LINE 33/1 Long Distance Cup

MAGNA GRECIA 12/1 QEII Stakes
KING OF CHANGE 20/1 QEII Stakes

FOX TAL 28/1 Champion Stakes.


Finally, I love CLON COULIS for the Balmoral Handicap,

That opening post, before racing starts today... looks absolutely superb.

It's actually stopping me wanting to back anything as they're all now half the price or shorter bar Fox Tal!

Win lose or draw, very well done HF. Very impressive.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kind of understand that.
But it's rare to look at any race and only see one potential winner. If you do, then the price wouldn't matter as much, and if it did then you're right to leave it alone.
But in 99.9% of horse races there is more than one potential winner. So it has to be about price.
Pretty sure that's what FM was referring too.

Exactly Q. Every horse has a price that I would back it at. Amadeo Modgiliani certainly isn't a bet for me at 7/2 but he would be at 8/1.

Today is he helping me get very fair prices on other horses.

Clon Coulis 9/1 ew 6 places. Also a much smaller bet on Circus Couture 66/1 ew 6 places.

[Kevloaf]

Never really understood this sort of Calculation. A winner is a winner in my book. All about the stake.

How come?

I hear what you say and agree to a point but my feeling is if you study a race and come up with one that you feel is the winner, whilst the price may put you off you shouldn't then go looking for another horse in the same race at a bigger price. Probably best to leave that race alone altogether.

What is your threshold for thinking you have the winner?

What degree of certainty do you have?

Would how confident you are of finding the winner alter the stake?



Comments like a "winner is a winner" and "you can't eat value" are not how people who make money punting would advise you to go about it... doesn't mean they are right, but it is likely.




Do you find you strongly fancy horses that are shorter prices? I just can't get excited about anything at even anymore.... I'd rarely stake more than 10 pts (if ever) ... so max win is 20 pts return (10 pts profit).... and I can assure you I get more out of a 10/1 winner with 1 pt on that 10 pts at even.... and when you've had more points at 16/1 / 20/1 25/1 it makes even money shots that you feel are winners, much less appealing.


Not having a go... obviously

[Istabraq]

My darts landed:

1.35 The Tin Man 11/1 ew
2.10 Mekong 3 and 4 places
2.45 Star Catcher 7/4 win and Antionio de Vega 8/1 ew
3.20 Benbatl 6/1 ew and The Revenant 4/1 ew
4.00 Coronet 7/2 ew
4.40 Kick On 12/1 ew and Clon Coulis 7/1 ew

Good luck all

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

LIBRISSA BREEZE ew 20/1

Will take the world of beating here .

[darlojim]

LIBRISSA BREEZE ew 20/1

Will take the world of beating here .

i cant decide whether this is a troll account or not anymore

[The King Pimm]

Great shout for Mitchemswagger today Quevega, I had him at 33’s e/w so happy with 3rd cheers

[The King Pimm]

I had also backed Liberissa Breeze, based on previous form in the hope he could rediscover it but alas he didn’t

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ll be there Saturday. Backed these so far:

Sprint - One Master @ 8/1 E/W
Sprint - Advertise @ 19/4
Fillies & Mares - Star Catcher @ 2/1
Fillies & Mares - Delphinia @ 18/1 E/W
QE2 - The Revenant @ 9/2 E/W
QE2 - Benbatl @ 13/2 E/W
QE2 - Veracious @ 40/1 E/W
Champions Stakes - Addeybb @ 4/1 E/W
Champions Stakes - Magical @ 9/5


Delphinia each way is the bet of the day for me

A good day.

[Middle_Of_March]

Well played Hampton with King Of Change. Great price

[BigChaang]

A good day.

A good day indeed M.O.M , veracious a nice price ! . well done Hampton fox too .,.
I had King of change in one of my multi's .... saved the day.