Betfair Chase Haydock 2012

[Old Vic]

15:05 Haydock Weird Al 9/2 from 11/2

With creditable doubts about both Long Run and Silviniaco Conti, the mover in the Betfair Chase has been third favourite, Weird Al. A winner first time up for the past two seasons, Donald McCain's gelding obviously goes well fresh, he handles the ground and perhaps more importantly has been trained specifically for this race. Get your wheelbarrows out.

[Old Vic]

There are a few conditions that Weird Al probably needs in his favour in order to be seen to best effect. He needs a long gap between his races, he probably needs a distance of three miles, but not much more than that, he is probably better on soft ground than he is on good or fast ground, and the balance of his form suggests that he is better in the winter than he is in the spring. All his stars align today then.

Another thing you need to remember about Weird Al, however, is that he breaks blood vessels. He has broken a blood vessel twice in his last five runs. It’s not good. When a horse breaks a blood vessel once, there is always a reasonable chance that he will do so again, and you have to factor that into the equation now every time you are thinking about backing Weird Al.

On the positive side, insofar as there is a positive side, both blood vessel breaks have been in the Gold Cup. Perhaps it was Cheltenham that caused it, the up-hill and down-dale (although he did win at Cheltenham twice in his younger days), perhaps it was the Gold Cup razzamatazz, perhaps it was the Gold Cup pace, perhaps it was the time of year, March, towards the end of the season. It is impossible to know. But he makes his seasonal debut today, and his freshness should minimise the probability of another broken blood vessel. First time out is the time to get him.

Weird Al’s record when he has had a break of four weeks or more since his previous race reads 211111P1PF (both Ps the broken blood vessels, the F in the Grand National); his record when he has been returned to the racecourse less than four weeks after his previous run reads 83. His record on his seasonal debut reads 21111; his record after his seasonal debut reads 118P3PF.

His record when racing over a distance of between two and a half miles and three miles and a furlong reads 1111113; his record when racing over a distance in excess of three miles and a furlong reads 8PPF. His record on ground softer than good to soft reads 21111; his record on good to soft or faster ground reads 18P13PF.

Also, his record between October and February reads 211111813; his record between March and September reads PPF.

Last year, Weird Al won the Charlie Hall Chase on his seasonal debut, then ran a cracker to finish third in the 2011 renewal of today’s race. It is probable that winning the Charlie Hall three weeks earlier wasn’t the ideal preparation for today’s race last year, yet he still got to within two lengths of Long Run, who was eight lengths behind Kauto Star. He is a year older now, he is nine rising 10, but he is relatively lightly-raced for his age, he has run in just 12 races in his life under all codes. There is plenty of mileage left in him, and it is probable that Donald McCain has had this race in mind for him for a while now.

Long Run is the obvious standard-setter, but he is very short at 2.78 this evening, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him drift in the morning. The King George and Gold Cup winner of the 2010/11 season, he won just once from four attempts last term, and he has not progressed as you would have expected a five-year-old King George winner (okay, so the King George was run in January that year, but he should have been five) and a six-year-old Gold Cup winner to have progressed.

Robert Waley-Cohen’s horse needed his seasonal debut last year, just as he had in 2010, and it is probable that he will progress for his run today. Unlike Weird Al, it is unlikely that this race has been his goal. It is more likely that Nicky Henderson is treating it as a stepping-stone to the King George. As well as that, Long Run is developing as a real stayer, Haydock’s inside track is probably tighter than ideal for him, and very soft ground would be a concern. He may win, but it is easy to be against him at the price.

Silviniaco Conti is probably a bigger danger to Weird Al, despite the fact that he is a bigger price than Long Run. He was a high-class novice among what is looking more and more like a vintage crop of novices last year, runner-up in the Feltham Chase, winner of the Mildmay Chase, and he looked really good in beating more experienced rivals in the Charlie Hall Chase on his return this term. He should handle soft ground – he beat Captain Chris in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow on the only occasion on which he has encountered soft ground – and, a six-year-old who has raced just six times over fences, he has plenty of scope for progression. Odds of 3.35 about him are fair.

The Giant Bolster has been well touted all week, but he shouldn’t really want the ground to be too soft, he will probably improve for his seasonal debut and he is probably a better horse at Cheltenham than he is anywhere else. You could see Cannington Brook out-performing odds of 18.5. He was fairly badly hampered when Frisco Depot fell in front of him at the second last fence at Ascot last time, and he should come on for that run. Crucially, he loves Haydock and he revels in soft ground there. However, unless it happened to come up really heavy, it is difficult to see him winning the race.

I have backed Weird Al, and I will probably keep Silviniaco Conti

[Old Vic]

^donn mcclean

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Time for Silviniaco Conti to lay down his Gold Cup marker
By Ruby Walsh
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2012
I have just five rides over the next two days, but this could still be a great weekend. What it really comes down to is whether I can win the Betfair Chase at Haydock today aboard Silviniaco Conti.

There are only six runners, but it has the makings of a cracking contest and is likely to revel whether Silviniaco is going to develop into the natural successor to Kauto Star and Denman.

I think we can safely dismiss the chances of Cannington Brook and Silviniaco slammed Wayward Prince to the tune of 11 lengths at Wetherby, so it is difficult to make a case for that horse.

But the other four all have a life. The one you’d least fancy of the quartet has to be Weird Al. Mind you, he made a fine start to last season when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, but his form did tail off after that.

Silviniaco Conti is a horse I really like and am particularly looking forward to riding again. He jumped and travelled great when winning easily at Wetherby and it was the ideal start to his campaign.

Paul Nicholls and I thought long and hard as to whether he should come here, or wait for the King George at Kempton.

My thinking is that essentially you need a two and a half mile hors e for the King George. It is no coincidence the likes of Florida Pearl, One Man and Edredon Bleu have won the King George, but not a Gold Cup.

Our worry was that Silviniaco just wouldn’t have the tactical speed for the King George, whereas the Betfair and Gold Cup place far more emphasis on stamina.

Take the Feltham at Kempton last season when Silviniaco was taken out of his comfort zone and beaten by Grands Crus. No, this is definitely the right race for him.

I believe Long Run now has a bit to prove. He had the world at his feet when winning the Gold Cup as a six-year-old, but to my eyes was never the same horse last season.

I mean, Kauto Star was able to beat him twice and chances are Long Run, at his best, wouldn’t have allowed that to happen, at least not on both occasions.

The Giant Bolster progressed and progressed last season, but it was still hard enough to fancy him in the Gold Cup.

But, at 50-1, he ran the race of his life to finish second to Synchronised and had Long Run behind in third. This will tell us whether that was a flash in the pan or not.

Bottom line is that I love my horse, can’t wait to throw my leg over him and am expecting him to deliver.

[Navanman]

Jump racing began searching in earnest yesterday for the next Gold Cup winner as well as a new sponsor for the Grand National – two not entirely unrelated events given that last season's Gold Cup winner Synchronised was fatally injured while running loose in the National.

There will be plenty who left Haydock in the gloom last night in the belief that the first part of that quest had been answered by Paul Nicholls after his Silviniaco Conti had made all to win the Betfair Chase by two and a half lengths from Long Run. The winner is now 6/1 second favourite for Cheltenham in March with Ladbrokes who make Sir Des Champs, another Ruby Walsh mount, the 5/1 favourite.

Walsh was masterful on Silviniaco Conti in giving Nicholls a fifth Betfair Chase to go with the four won by Kauto Star. With no one else keen to go on he controlled the race from the start. Nicholls has always regarded the rapidly improving six-year-old as a stayer but it was at the back of Walsh's mind that he had won an Ascot Hurdle over two and a half miles and he reckoned if he turned it into a sprint nothing would beat him.

That is pretty much what happened. Long Run did not help himself pulling for a mile and a half but he jumped much better when the tempo quickened and Silviniaco Conti, though never looking like he would get beat, could never quite shake off the tenacious 2011 Gold Cup winner.

It was a good return for Sam Waley-Cohen's mount. He is now 3/1 favourite for the King George and it would be a brave man to write him off winning another Gold Cup. The Giant Bolster, runner-up in last season's Gold Cup, ran a very good race in third until tiring at the last.

Nicholls was understandably delighted with Silviniaco Conti. "Kauto won this aged six and the Gold Cup aged seven," he said. "Although we've avoided Cheltenham so far I'd have no worries about that and because he's very, very good fresh I wouldn't mind if he went straight there without another run." He added: "We tried to make him a Champion Hurdler which he wasn't but like Al Ferof he's improved this year. Ruby knows him well and there's no better judge of the pace from the front but in a race like the Gold Cup he'd better in behind with a stronger pace."

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Phil Smiths take on it

The first Grade 1 chase of the 2012/13 season was a relatively straightforward race to assess in terms of performance but a difficult one to decide what rating Long Run should receive, writes Phil Smith. Silviniaco Conti went in on 168 and Long Run on 178 but that performance from Long Run was all the way back in February.

Both Weird Al and The Giant Bolster went into the race on 164 and there was a short head between them. As they were 18 lengths clear of Cannington Brook on 145, it was reasonable to believe that they had performed to either 163 using a literal pounds per length back to the last horse who was on 145 or 164 if I decided Cannington Brook could have performed to 146 which he has in the past. Either way it was irrelevant to him as I was not going to raise his rating for finishing last.

It brought Long Run out at 167/8 which was pretty good for a first run of the season. Last year Weird Al got to within two lengths of Long Run in this race so it was encouraging to see him more than double his superiority. I believe Silviniaco Conti won comfortably so called the winning margin 4lb and have moved his rating to 172. The biggest problem was what to do with Long Run’s rating. As I had him running to 163 in the Gold Cup and under 170 here, I decided to drop him to 172 - the same as the winner. If neither run between now and the Gold Cup there will be as many people supporting one as the other and I will have them the same rating.

In the unlikely event of them running in a handicap against each other they would carry the same weight and I think it would be difficult for the public to decide which was more likely to win.