Betfair Chase Haydock 2012

[Lester]

Bet365 have Long Run specials

To Win the Betfair Chase & King George is 5/1 & these two with the Gold Cup is 25/1.

[Yeehaa]

Bet365 have Long Run specials

To Win the Betfair Chase & King George is 5/1 & these two with the Gold Cup is 25/1.

Vibes good today ...said connections thought they pinpointed something wrong with the horse last year ?

[mayo]

Long Run, second to Kauto Star in the race last year, will face five rivals in the contest as he aims to make a winning return to action.

Up-and-coming Charlie Hall Chase winner Silviniaco Conti heads the opposition, with Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster and the enigmatic Weird Al also set to line up along with likely outsiders Cannington Brook and Wayward Prince.

However with the going at Haydock already officially soft, Tellwright is expecting further rain in the build-up to the race.

"We're due another half an inch at some point on Thursday, then 3mm or so more on Friday before it turns drier," he told sportinglife.com. "It's already soft and it's hard to see how we won't be left with some 'heavy' in the ground if the rain arrives as forecast - the question is how much."

[Statto]

Richard Dunwoody

Betfair Chase Betting Guide

The Betfair Chase was not around during my riding days, but it’s now established as a great addition to the early season program and has been well supported by some leading names yards since it was first run back in 2005.

Kauto Star had this as a firm target during his career, winning it four times, including last year, while with the likes of Imperial Commander, who won the race in 2010 and last year’s runner-up Long Run, then it’s become an excellent Cheltenham Gold Cup guide.

In fact, it’s the last named horse – Long Run – that this year’s race revolves around as this former Gold Cup winner is set to make his seasonal reappearances.

This really is a big season for Nicky Henderson’s 7 year-old as he looks to get back on track to showing the potential that he promised a few seasons ago. He could not live with an aging Kauto Star in this race 12 months ago, while the same applied in the King George the following month, and although he just got home in the Denman Chase at Newbury after he could then only manage third in the Gold Cup last March.

With all that in mind there’s no denying he’s still very much a force to be reckoned and with Henderson reporting him a lot more forward than most years then he's certainly the one to beat here. However, with the likes of Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs, Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti coming up through the ranks - then things aren’t going to get any easier for Long Run as the season progresses.

For me though, he’s also bit too short in the betting here, while although his connections are giving out good vibes let’s not forget he’s not won first time out now for the past two seasons, after only managing third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup the campaign before last – but that’s not to say he can’t go well in the Gold Cup later in the season. A win here (depending on the style of victory) will probably see his Cheltenham odds cut from the current 8/1, and considering he’s yet to finish out of the money from three runs at Prestbury Park then even at that price he will attract a lot of each-way players.

Those backing him here will say there is nothing in the same calibre as Kauto Star in the race, and being only 7 years-old then there should be more still to come, while those willing to take him on will harp on about his recent record when fresh, the fact the Giant Bolster beat him by 2 lengths in the Gold Cup, but is 4 times the price, and, finally, that 5 of the last 7 winners of this race came here after a recent run.

Moving onto the others it’s a real shame the 2010 Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander will miss the race after being pulled out on Tuesday due to injury and at 11 years-old it remains to be seen if we'll see him again on the track.

Tidal Bay has had a new lease of life since joining the Paul Nicholls yard and was a decent winner of the John Smith’s Hurdle at Wetherby last month – a win that followed up a victory in the Bet365 Gold Cup last season – he is, however, still rated 12lbs inferior to Long Run and at 11 he’s another that’s not getting any younger.

Weird Al, who was forced to miss the Charlie Hall Chase last month, might attract a few wagers if he makes the final line-up. He’s won first time out for the past 4 seasons and was a fair third in this race in 2010, but is another that based on the ratings has 14lbs to find with Long Run.

I’ve mentioned The Giant Bolster and being that he’s only 7 years-old too then he could be in for a big season, while I’m sure if he was housed at one of the more fashionable yards then he would probably be 2-3 points shorter.

That leaves us with Silviniaco Conti, who will be hoping to continue the excellent record Paul Nicholls has in this race. We last saw him winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby in eye-catching fashion and unlike some of the older horses here he’s still on the upgrade, and of those rated below Long Run he’s certainly one that can improve again and bridge that ratings gap.

With 10lbs to find then many will feel that he’s still got a year or two to go, but if Long Run runs a few pounds below his mark and Conti does come on again, especially with a potential fitness edge too, then there might not be too much between them on this occasion and with Ruby an added bonus in the saddle then that will be a further positive as Nicholls looks to win his fifth Betfair Chase.

Betfair Chase Trends

7/7 - Irish (3) or French (4) bred horses
6/7 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) previously
5/7 - Placed in the top three in their last race
5/7 - Raced within the last month
5/7 – Had won a Grade One chase previously
5/7 - Winning distance - 2 lengths or less
5/7 - Officially rated 170 or higher
5/7 – Favourites placed
5/7 - Raced at Haydock previously
3/7 - Raced at Aintree last time out
2/7 - Raced in the Charlie Hall (Wetherby) last time out
2/7 - Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/1
Trainer Paul Nicholls and Kauto Star won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009 & 2011
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2006, 2009 & 2011

[Statto]

Could end up with 4

1 5185-6 Cannington Brook 21 8 11-7 Colin Tizzard29 145 117 157
2 2213- Long Run 253 7 11-7 Nicky Henderson43 Mr S Waley-Cohen 178 169 188
3 1241-1 Silviniaco Conti 21 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls62 168 164 173
4 72142- The Giant Bolster 253 7 11-7 David Bridgwater67 164 169 179
5 P47P-2 Wayward Prince 21 8 11-7 Hilary Parrott 150 128 159
6 13PF- Weird Al 224 9 11-7 Donald McCain55 164 — —

[Hoof]

Long Run is the star of the show at Haydock in the Betfair Chase and with Kauto Star now in retirement, the way may be clear for him to return to the top of the chasing tree.

However, I think Long Run has plenty to prove these days and has a load of talented second season chasers snapping at his heels.

All Long Run's performances last season were consistent and of a decent level but none had the brilliance of his Gold Cup winning season. Can he get back to that level?

Punters will have to guess but one thing I do know is that Haydock is not his ideal track. The sharp bends don't suit his galloping style and I'm sure at some point on Saturday Sam Waley-Cohen will look in trouble.

It's such a shame Imperial Commander hasn't made the field as he would have been primed for this as his Gold Cup and would have been a good bet. Silviniaco Conti is Sky Bet's second favourite and sure to be popular after his impressive performance in the Charlie Hall. I'm not sure how good a renewal that was and this is a horse that still has a bit to prove for me.

I think the race is ripe for an upset but I'm struggling to make a case for any of the bigger priced horses.

[Hoof]

ROBERT WALEY-COHEN on Thursday said he would not know how Betfair Chase favourite Long Run would cope with heavy ground as the six contenders for Saturday's Grade 1 were warned to brace themselves for a possible further easing in the going.

The owner of the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner said Long Run, a best-priced 11-8 for the 3m contest, had encountered testing going when racing in France but nothing that would compare to the surface Haydock could produce if the track gets rain in the volume forecast.

Alhough conditions were soft on Thursday, up to 12mm of rain was forecast and clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright said: "If we get that then the word heavy will feature somewhere in the going description."

Waley-Cohen said: "Long Run had 12 races at Auteuil when the ground was either lourd or tres lourd (heavy or very heavy).

That's not as heavy as Haydock heavy so we truthfully don't know how he will cope, but for lack of alternatives we'll almost certainly run there. I'd be more worried if it dried out and became terribly tacky.

"There are only ten horses declared tomorrow [Friday] for the two chases. They save ground on the bends, I'm told, so I think we've got to take our chance."

Midnight Chase was not declared because of the ground leaving Long Run as one of six horses aimed at the £200,000 contest with Paul Nicholls, winner of four out of six runnings of the race, relying on Charlie Hall Chase winner Silviniaco Conti, a best-priced 9-4 with several firms.

"I've been watching the ground and I know it's going to be soft but we are positive," Nicholls said. "He worked great and is going to run. It will be the same for all of them. Dom Alcos don't mind it as you saw with Al Ferof last week.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

I think the ground should suit long run now

[Moscow]

Will it even be on ?

[Old Vic]

Simon Holt

Long Run's return to action in Saturday's Betfair Chase is bound to have many punters in a quandary: on his Gold Cup-winning form two seasons ago, the horse looks good value at odds against to win this race but, of course, last season's efforts - including when beaten by a gloriously revitalised Kauto Star in this race - were far less convincing.

It is said that Long Run has grown a bit since last term and it could have been the case that two scraps with Kauto Star (here and at Kempton in the King George) during the winter took the edge off him resulting in a below-par performance when only third behind the ill-fated Synchronised and surprise-package The Giant Bolster back at Cheltenham in the spring.

However, concerns still surround his jumping from time to time while regular rider Sam Waley Cohen has ridden in only four races so far this season.

So it's hard to say which Long Run is going to turn up at Haydock and, given that doubt, I will take The Giant Bolster to confirm the Gold Cup placings and prove his effort that day was no fluke.

Overall, David Bridgwater's chaser had an inconsistent campaign in 2011/12 getting rid of Tom Scudamore at the first fence in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, looking reluctant to line up before the Hennessy but then going on to win at Cheltenham before his must improved effort behind Synchronised.

What's interesting - but maybe not surprising - about this horse is that he seems to be improving as his trainer gets better at training!

By his own admission, Bridgwater is pushing his horses harder at home than he used to and, consequently, he has been sending out winners on a far more regular basis; this season he is operating at one winner for every four runners.

So there is every chance that The Giant Bolster will never have been better prepared than he is now.

According to the market, second favourite Silviniaco Conti is regarded as the horse most likely to topple Long Run but I am not so sure.

While clearly smart, Paul Nicholls' charge had little to beat in the Charlie Hall Chase on his reappearance and this strikes me as by far his toughest task to date. We will know more about him after this race.

On the best of his form, Weird Al would also have chances. But, after a good third behind Kauto Star and Long Run in this race last year, he then became disappointing and broke a blood vessel in the Gold Cup, and was then well beaten when coming to grief in the Grand National.

While reported in good shape, Weird Al has something to prove on this occasion.

[Old Vic]

Owner Robert Waley-Cohen is unfazed by the prospect of testing conditions for Long Run's seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Chase on Saturday.

The Nicky Henderson-trained seven-year-old has his first start since finishing third in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March, but the ground at Haydock is likely to be demanding.

"The ground is what we've anticipated all week and I think we just have to press on and hope they all handle it," said Waley-Cohen.

"It's going to be fresh ground on Saturday and it's going to be the same for us all.

"It would be nice if they had a little bit of rain on Friday night, just to freshen things up a bit and stop it being too sticky."

Waley-Cohen believes Long Run is in better shape than he was for his Haydock comeback 12 months ago, when he finished second to Kauto Star.

He said: "I think Long Run is a bit more forward than he was going into the race last year and he is certainly more mature, physically and mentally.

"He is a Gold Cup winner and perhaps last season was a little disappointing, but there are a number of factors which contributed to that.

"He was a six-year-old and still growing and he came up against Kauto Star at his brilliant best in this race

"He's running against good horses on Saturday and they don't just give Grade Ones away, but we're very much looking forward to it."

Long Run will again be partnered by the owner's son, Sam Waley-Cohen, who said: "There are some great horses in the race.

"Seeing the young horses coming through like Silviniaco Conti is also one of the great bits of racing - the old established stars being taken on by the young pretenders and seeing who's got what it takes.

"Competition at the top level is about heart and about mind.

"That transcends talent sometimes, and what we'll see on Saturday is the horses that have the heart and mind are the ones that also want to show they've got the talent."

The amateur rider admits Haydock is not the ideal track, adding: "It's not, but at the same time you are short of options and it's as good a place as any to go.

"It's a course he can run well on and if you look back to last season you'd say he got beat by Kauto Star, the greatest horse of all time, but he beat the third, fourth and fifth in the betting for the Gold Cup.

"OK, it's not his best course, but it's not a bad course.

"I think everyone's really pleased with him. He's matured both physically and mentally and we go there full of hope and with one eye fully on the competition."

The up-and-coming Silviniaco Conti has big shoes to fill following Kauto Star's retirement as he is seemingly Paul Nicholls' chief Gold Cup contender.

Nicholls told Betfair: "The one thing about him is he jumps really, really well and he stays well, which is just what you need to go to a Gold Cup.

"Whether we'll talk about going to the Gold Cup this season he'll tell us, but the next logical step is the Betfair Chase.

"It's a race we've won four times with Kauto and he's come out of Wetherby really, really well.

"I think Haydock will suit him well.

"The only thing I wouldn't want is the ground to get too, too testing, but he's a nice horse for the future."

The Giant Bolster was one place ahead of Long Run in last season's Gold Cup, but trainer David Bridgwater is not confident of confirming the form.

Bridgwater said: "He's in good order. I hope he'll go through the ground as well as the others.

"We obviously finished ahead of Long Run in the Gold Cup, but this is a different track and a different stage of the season, obviously.

"If we can finish within 10 lengths of him on Saturday, I'll be very happy.

"I think there's our horse, Long Run and Weird Al who haven't run for a day or two, and you would think they are all going to improve.

"We'll get this race out of the way before we make any plans for the rest of the season, but obviously there are races like the King George and what have you to look at.

"We're really excited about running him.

"It's just brilliant to be part of races like this."

[postmanpat]

Strange logic at work here . Female brain innit

The ground at Haydock will be testing though for the Betfair Chase for which six horses have been declared. Nicky Henderson once again looks set to have a successful weekend, but as ever he is up against a strong challenge from champion trainer Paul Nicholls.

His Long Run is a worthy favourite for this Grade 1 but it's a fascinating contest. He was second to Kauto Star in this last year, but his season was a bit disappointing on the whole. This track doesn't suit him ideally either and I'm not sure I'd want to take a very short price about him.

Silviniaco Conti takes his next step up the ladder after winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and he has come out of that race well. The worry is the ground though, as I'm not sure he's want it too testing.

Long Run was third in the Gold Cup back in March but The Giant Bolster was one place in front of him in second. He doesn't seem to have got as much credit as he deserves.

Weird Al goes well after a break and I think he could be the one to have a pound or two on. He is quirky, but ran well to be third in this last year and has bypassed this season's Charlie Hall so comes here a fresh horse.

On ratings this should go to Long Run, but on this ground and on a track that doesn't suit him ideally I'm going to take a chance on Weird Al for Donald McCain.

[Statto]

^ Who is that from Pat ?

More stats

Winners have been aged between six and 11 with two nine year olds successful.
Winners have been priced between 10-11 and 33-1; four favourites have won with three returned odds-on.
Five winners finished in the first three on their preceding start.
Six winners had won or been placed in a Grade One Chase.
Four winners had won the Gold Cup.
Four winners had contested the race before.
Four winners had had a prep run.

Summary

A race in its relative infancy with the figures skewed somewhat by Kauto Star's four victories in the contest. Grade One form is essential and could have had a clean sweep across the years if Kauto Star and his jockey had kept the partnership intact in 2009.

Cannington Brook and Weird Al fall down on that score but there's little to separate the remaining quartet on the statistics.

Kauto Star won the race for the first time as a six year old and Paul Nicholls will be hoping to repeat the feat with Silviniaco Conti but perhaps Long Run can become the fifth favourite to oblige.

He came up short last year when only the second six year old to have run in the race in its seven year history but doesn't have to take on Kauto Star this time around although this will be the heaviest ground that he'll have encountered since arriving in Britain.

[Statto]

7 Previous runnings
7/7 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (4) bred horse
6/7 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
5/7 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
5/7 – Officially rating of 170 or higher
5/7 – Favourites placed
5/7 – Won a Grade One chase previously
5/7 – Placed in the top three in their last race
5/7 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
5/7 – Raced at Haydock previously
3/7 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/7 – Won their latest race
2/7 – Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
The average winning price in the last 7 runnings is 9/1
The Paul Nicholls yard and Kauto Star took the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009 & 2011
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009 & 2011

[mayo]

Morning

The Champ has views ( and will JP be getting the cheque book out)

Tony McCoy: Long Run is facing a defining race at Haydock, but the course is no longer up to scratch
This time last year I don’t think Synchronised was on anyone’s Gold Cup radar, let alone our own. In fact on this day a year ago he finished third to Dynaste in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock before going on to win the Lexus and the Gold Cup.
That form will come under scrutiny for the first time when The Giant Bolster and Long Run, whom we beat into second and third at Cheltenham in March, take each other on in the Betfair Chase on Saturday.

The modern Haydock, however, is very different to the one I started riding at, which was a real galloping course with the biggest fences outside of Aintree.

Now it is a tight round the inside and over portable fences. As far as I am concerned it is not worthy of its status as grade-one jump track and it is very far removed from the test set by Cheltenham.

I am not sure we that saw the best of Long Run last year and at Haydock much hinges upon the 2011 Gold Cup winner. If he is back to his best he wins – and if he is not it becomes an open contest and one has to ask whether we will ever see the real Long Run again.

Silviniaco Conti is a progressive second-season chaser, but he will find this tougher than Wetherby, there are doubts about The Giant Bolster in the ground and we know that Weird Al goes fresh.

Cannington Brook will love the conditions but from what I have seen of him at home I would still give Long Run the benefit of the doubt.

Synchronised would have loved this ground, but he would not have like the track.

At the moment we have no replacement for him, in fact we do not really have any established chasers, but is a long time between now and March, as he proved last year.