Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle Newbury Fri Nov 27th

[Outlaw]

Paisley Park 7/2 on the exchange, I find that staggering. Forgive one run with a legitimate excuse, if he flops then two runs fair do I'll forget him but has to be backed at the price if he is indeed A1 again.

edit 5.3 3rd Fav!

[charlie]

Paisley Park 7/2 on the exchange, I find that staggering. Forgive one run with a legitimate excuse, if he flops then two runs fair do I'll forget him but has to be backed at the price if he is indeed A1 again.

edit 5.3 3rd Fav!

Really? Staggering? I can understand being a bit surprised at 7/2, but is it really staggering given his last run AND the calibre of horses he's taking on today?

Sure, most wont be good enough to lace his boots if on a going day, and it is still a big if IMO, and there may even be one or two in that field that emerge as the new force in the division.

It really is an if you love PP and think he'll win pile in price though, although he is now back into 2nd fav @ 4.6 on the machine.

[Outlaw]

Really? Staggering? I can understand being a bit surprised at 7/2, but is it really staggering given his last run AND the calibre of horses he's taking on today?

Sure, most wont be good enough to lace his boots if on a going day, and it is still a big if IMO, and there may even be one or two in that field that emerge as the new force in the division.

It really is an if you love PP and think he'll win pile in price though, although he is now back into 2nd fav @ 4.6 on the machine.

Prior to chelt he racked up the ratings to warrant being tagged as "banker". Lots of these have ability to prove at this level. I honestly think anything other than being Fav is a surprise on all we know so 4/1 yes I consider that staggering regardless of result.

[nortonscoin200]

Lisnagar Oscar is 18-1 with Skybet who go 1/5 odds first 4.

For an each way bet that's about 7-4 to come fourth with the chance of a win thrown in.

Be a bit surprised if he doesn't make the first four.

[ComplyOrDie]

Had a small go on Summerville Boy 9/1, to go with my 20/1 on Honest Vic.

I think there are enough doubts at the odds to be against them.

McFabulous has never tried 3m, although there is absolutely no reason why he shouldn't get the trip, it is now a price thing with him.

Paisley Park is coming back from a heart issue, as far as I'm aware these issues can re-occur, so I'd want to see him out after that before backing him, which I'll get to see today, though would be against him for it also.

Thyme Hill hasn't been out this season, so race fitness is an obvious question mark. Hobbs' horses have been hit and miss so I wouldn't want to guess how far forward he is in a race like this at 4/1.

Lisnagar Oscar didn't show an awful lot before winning the Stayers last season, and I wonder if that will be the case again this time around. I'd probably look to back him for the Stayers if he hit 33/1+ and just hope he flops today really.

I can't have any of the three outsiders on what they've shown to date.

So I'm left with the potential improver (a bit like McFabulous to a degree), in Honest Vic at 20/1 which I thought was plenty fair enough, and a race fit Summerville Boy at 9/1, and although the latter has been beat twice over 3m, that was on the stiffest of tracks, Cheltenham. I think he'll be much better suited by Newbury today.

[Istabraq]

This is such a good race you can make a case for most of the field.
Aux Petit Soins is probably up against it and no doubt looking for a rate drop, One Night in Milan looks like he'll be outclassed and although you can see Vision des Flos running a race with Tizzards running better now this is his first hurdle outing for over a year, the rest for me all have a live chance.
I've backed Sam Spinner here but above all I'm looking for Thyme Hill to run well and keep alive a mountain of March vouchers...

[Istabraq]

I may well be jumping to conclusions but for Sam Spinner to return to timber after such a lacklustre outing over fences last time, I think he may now look to target the Stayers Hurdle, a race he went close in two years ago.
Plenty of 66/1 about but 50s the best I can get, so had a point ew...

[charlie]

Well done TH backers. Bit frustrated with fucking VDF there lighting HV up but perhaps he's just not good enough. Very good winner. McFab probably doesn't stay and PP looked to me like he needed the run.