World Cup 2018

[Muswell]

I'll be leaving my Spain outright bet, and it wasn't for a significant amount - but I wouldn't think the extra 1 pt makes up for having no manager?

Although I'm trying to see it in a way that it won't make a huge difference, but it all depends on who is stil lthere to pick the team. They'll still play the same way, and they're really experienced players.

I’m the same it’s a load of experienced players who has mostly won the lot with their clubs it’s not ideal but I think it can be overstated. Look at the troubles Germany have with their players / fans you can make cases against most of the leading sides

[Kevloaf]

Update on my bets:

I've been lured in by a couple of special markets...

Not to win a Group Game
Portugal 8/1I really don't like Portugal. I know Ronaldo is good enough to win a game BUT they won the Euro's in 2016 and this bet would still have landed as they didn't manage any wins... and the team is worse now, in a tougher group.
Russia 8/1 Russia are absoltuely dreadful so 8/1 for them not to win a game was too big for me. I'm surprised they're 4/9 to win the opening game to be honest. Awful run, not played competitvely for 18 months and they can't score goals.
Argentina 14/1 Leap of faith here, and a bit silly as I love Messi and want him to win the World Cup to end any debate about him being the greatest ever (let alone settle the fact he's better than Ronaldo), anwyay, that aside, Argentina were rubbish in qualifying, and have had an interupted prep, with friendlies cancelled. They're top heavy, have Willy Cabellero in goals who is just very poor and one big side always flops....
I've actually had a 1214/1 Patent on this... as any of the 3 make a small profit.

Lukaku Top Group G goal scorer at 11/2 (I think Belgium will steam roller Panama and Tunisia) and I see it as a bit of a match with Kane and thought 11/2 was worth it as England won't score as many against those two in my opinion. The 4-0 friendly win for Belgium over Costa Rica was enough to convince me.

Neymar Top Group E goal scorer at 4/1 - THis was just because I'm not on Neymar overall and it'll be either him or Jesus that are likely so the boosted 4/1 was enough for a stake.

Group B Morocco to qualify at 7/2 - Quite strong on this, I think they have a really good defence and Ziyech is a player I've been aware of for a while. I hope he has a decent tournament and this was before the Spain news broke... I was against Portugal anyway. I still expect Spain to go through so no real change, but Portugal are poor and if Morocco can get through Iran's defence I think they'll have a good shot at picking up a point against Portugal at least...

Top African Nation - Senegal 2.2/1
Can't have Egypt at all - they're 2nd favs in this market and aren't as good as people seem to be making out. Salah factor being well over played AND he's not going to be fit. He might not even play.
I do like Morocco and think they'll get through the group, but Uruguay should dispose of them...
Nigeria aren't getting out of their group for me, they're in a difficult group
Tunisia I don't expect to progress
Senegal I do expect to progress and I don't think they'd fear England that much?

These are the ones I was already on when I postes:
Spain - Outright 6/1 and 11/2 (In shock at the news today, not writing them off but certainly a blow)
Edison Cavani Top Scorer 22/1 - 6 places (Case made on here was too good to ignore)
Germany, Brazil 9 points, Panama & Iran 0 points 80/1

[Kevloaf]

Onto the matches - one banker a day

5/2 for Uruguay, France, Brazil, Belgium

Friday Uruguay vs Eygpt - I don't think Salah will play, if he does, he won't be fit. Even with him Eygpt don't score many and Uruguay have Godon and Giminez at the back and Suarez, Cavani up front... compared to Egypt who have the relegated West Brom centre backs... I fully expect a comfortable win for the South Americans...

Saturday France vs Aussie - Not the biggest fan of France, they've let people down before but they did reach the final in Euro 16 and the team isn't worse than it was then... you can definitely argue it is better with Dembele and Mbappe in there. They've just got too much for these in every position. It'd be a major shock if they don't open their account with a win

On to Sunday Brazil vs Switzerland - The pre-tournament favs have nothing at all to fear from Switzerland, as the Swiss don't have the weapons to cause the Brazillian defence enough of a problem. Shaqiri is likeable and decent but Brazil to win to nil is being tipped up on a few of the podcasts and I can't see anything but a win for Brazil.

Monday... Belgium vs Panama - A complete mis-match. Belgium have a good record against weaker sides, I feel like they'll do to Panama what they did to Costa Rica yesterday, and put 4 past them. I think 1 would be ebough to win the game, so I am hoping my bet is still live as I gfet home from work on Monday to watch the second half of this game

[SeanRock]

Anyone with a Spain ticket I wouldn’t be be worried about Lopetegui’s dismissal. He has a terrible record at club level with Porto. Spent over £100 and finished 3rd with no trophies. Sacrificial lamb to the slaughter at Madrid imo.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Good couple of posts Kev, couldn't disagree with any of that and might follow you in on a couple of those. Who is the patent with and the Lukaku bet? I actually have small stake trebles and a 4-fold on these four African teams to qualify Nigeria, Senegal, Morocco and Egypt, which you have limited my enthusiasm for... haha!

[charlie]

Thursday & Friday

Russia v Saudi Arabia under 2.5 4/7
Morocco v Iran 5/4
Portugal v Spain 21/20
Egypt v Uruguay BTTS No 1/2

£10 returns £108

Saturday

France v Australia under 2.5 EVS
Argentina v Iceland under 2.5 8/11
Peru v Denmark BTTS EVS
Croatia v Nigeria 7/10

£10 returns £117

[charlie]

Sunday & Monday

Costa Rica v Serbia 10/11
Germany v Mexico over 2.5 10/11
Brazil v Switzerland BTTS NO 8/13
Sweden v South Korea 21/20
Belgium v Panama over 2.5 8/11

£10 returns £208

Tuesday & Wednesday

Columbia v Japan 4/6
Poland v Senegal over 2.5 13/10
Russia v Egypt under 2.5 4/7
Portugal v Morocco BTTS YES 6/5
Uruguay v Saudi Arabia over 2.5 4/5
Iran v Spain over 2.5 goals 17/20

£10 returns £441

[charlie]

Banker Acca

Morocco v Iran 5/4
Portugal v Spain 21/20
Croatia v Nigeria 7/10
Costa Rica v Serbia 10/11
Sweden v South Korea 21/20
Columbia v Japan 4/6

£10 returns £511

Banker Acca predicting the inevitable draw that will screw me over

Morocco v Iran 5/4
Portugal v Spain 21/20
Croatia v Nigeria 7/10
Costa Rica v Serbia 10/11
Sweden v South Korea DRAW 21/10
Columbia v Japan 4/6

£10 returns £773

[Kevloaf]

Good couple of posts Kev, couldn't disagree with any of that and might follow you in on a couple of those. Who is the patent with and the Lukaku bet? I actually have small stake trebles and a 4-fold on these four African teams to qualify Nigeria, Senegal, Morocco and Egypt, which you have limited my enthusiasm for... haha!

Patent was with 365... although Russia have just won very easily which isn't a great start haha.

To be fair, people a lot smarter than me are tipping the African teams to do well, so I wouldn't worry

[Kevloaf]

Good luck with your bets charlie.

I'm well up for the World Cup now

US Open just started too, Royal Ascot next week.

What a time to be alive!

[charlie]

Good luck with your bets charlie.

I'm well up for the World Cup now

US Open just started too, Royal Ascot next week.

What a time to be alive!

Cheers Kev, you too. I was just saying the same to a mate. It's an absolute feast of sport all over the shop and I cannot wait

[ryanh97]

I have a group straight forecast acca im quietly confident on.

Uruguay/Russia
France/Denmark
Argentina/Croatia
Brazil/Denmark

2.5pt free bet pays 100pts

[Istabraq]

I've cashed out for a 7% loss and can back them at bigger prices as you suggest but unsure if I should. This can only have a negative impact, especially as the manager appears to have been really popular with the players.

I’m not sure what impact this will have, Spaniards are proud and passionate people (certainly more loyal to their country than the endless list of pampered English players who retire from international football and happily play for years after at club level, strangely for £250k-500k a week), I can see this won’t have helped their preparation but ultimately they have 23 world class players who all want to play and succeed as a unit, there is a danger the market overeacts to this....

[Faugheen_Machine]

I’m not sure what impact this will have, Spaniards are proud and passionate people (certainly more loyal to their country than the endless list of pampered English players who retire from international football and happily play for years after at club level, strangely for £250k-500k a week), I can see this won’t have helped their preparation but ultimately they have 23 world class players who all want to play and succeed as a unit, there is a danger the market overeacts to this....

You've talked me back into it Ista. Backed them at 13/2 so no damage done.

Portugal are a poor side so Spain despatch them tonight.

[archie]

What odds that Godin dumps Salah on his shoulder inside 5 minutes today?!