Ladbrokes Trophy (aka Hennessy Gold Cup)

[Istabraq]

FM - do you want to create a 2018 thread so we get individual threads for each renewal ?

[Garrison Savannah]

Can see Whisper placing, but think he's a horse in this type of race that will always find at least one better than him.

About the only thing I got right when it came to the main race of the day. Although, I'd love to know where SFP would have finished had he not come down. Same happened to me with On Tour when going well. Cracking day all round mind, and a few horses to put in the tracker too.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Hills are paying 7 places

[Istabraq]

Sadly no FM, I got stung a few weeks ago on a decent AP bet so I'll wait until Saturday when I know he goes...

[Faugheen_Machine]

I forgot your beast had form with A Genie in a Bottle BOF, and having run so well in the Kerry National that was a nice boost for AGIAB....

A sea of blue for AGIAB today. Is that your bet filtering through Ista?

[Istabraq]

I forgot your beast had form with A Genie in a Bottle BOF, and having run so well in the Kerry National that was a nice boost for AGIAB....

[archie]

If he avoids mishaps I don't think you can kick Singlefarmpayment out of a place.

[Bayoffreedom]

Does no-one give A Genie in a Bottle a squeak here ?
Was never going to stay 4m at Chelt for one so young and inexperienced but ran well to 3 out, this trip far more his liking, can see him going very well....

Could not agree more. I may not be the most objective one here as, having been beaten 2.75 lengths at levels, him running well would make Bay of Freedom look very well handicapped.He beat Mala Beach (won Troytown on Sunday) by 2.5 lengths off levels in October. Admittedly, Mala Beach was having his first outing for over 500 days and may not have been fully wound up but the same could be said of A Genie in Abottle who hadn't run for 168 days and has needed his first outing historically. In any event, the difference between a 168 day break and 500 days is much less pronounced these days given a decent trainer.
He also ran a decent race behind Disko at Punchestown on ground not dissimilar to Saturday's likely ground; beaten 5.5l off levels by a 164 rated horse.

[Istabraq]

Does no-one give A Genie in a Bottle a squeak here ?
Was never going to stay 4m at Chelt for one so young and inexperienced but ran well to 3 out, this trip far more his liking, can see him going very well....

[Kevloaf]

Sara Bradstock not too worried about American is she

[SAMCRO]

Total Recall 12s and Vyta Du Roc 33s are my plays!

[Faugheen_Machine]

They are forecasting no rain at Newbury before Saturday.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Thanks for that BOF, fingers crossed for a big run. Will actually be at a wedding so will try not to find out the result and watch a replay at some point.

[Bayoffreedom]

Anyone have any thoughts on how much American's chances could be affected if it is a dry week?

It's Good to Soft, Soft in places right now and, at this time of year even with a dry week, it may only dry up to Good to Soft all around. Even so, that would be the quickest ground he has run on since his novice hurdle win at Ascot. His ability to jump out of soft ground and gallop was a differentiator at Warwick and Uttoxeter; he may lose some of that advantage on quicker ground and may struggle to hold his position. It's a concern but he has looked very impressive and hopefully the extra couple of furlongs will allow him to get into the right rhythm even on faster than ideal going.
I would have similar concerns about Total Recall; his best performances have been on soft and heavy ground. Of the ones at the head of the market, the likely going will most suit SingleFarmPayment and Whisper.

It will be interesting to see the remaining entries tomorrow.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Anyone have any thoughts on how much American's chances could be affected if it is a dry week?