Weekend Racing

[Kevloaf]

Taken that on board ISta - EW Trixie - Vic De Touzaine,Shatoavodka,Definitely Red
and a win yankee on My Target,Miss Mirabeau,Second Though,Kasbah at Lingfield. (Most uninspiring bet of all time )

Not going to be watching any racing tomorrow but couldn't resist!

[bitchy]

2.05 Newbury – Betway Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase.


As always with these Veterans’ Chases, a decent field lines up with a competitive look to the race. However, the obvious one that jumps out is the Rebecca Curtis-trained O’Faolains Boy, who looks to be using this as a stepping stone towards the Grand National in April. He was poor on his reappearance, but can be forgiven that as it was his first run for almost a year and he did the same thing last year before winning second time out. This drop into Veterans’ Chase class will certainly be his easiest task in a while and his mark of 143 looks a very much exploitable one given he won very easily at this venue in December 2015 and he was rated 156 after that. Clearly it needs a leap of faith to trust the horse to reproduce the good form he last showed over a year ago, but he’s surely still retained enough ability to go close off this mark, especially with tongue strap and cheekpieces used in combination for the first time.
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Harry Topper has been very lightly raced to say the least over the past three years, but on his best form and what he showed last time out at Exeter, he would also have a chance off a mark of 144. He’d clearly like as much rain to come as possible and there is the possibility that the ground might be a tad quick for him, but this Denman Chase winner looks to be coming back towards the form he showed a few years ago. If the ground’s soft or worse, he should run a decent race.
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Paul Nicholls has two in the race, but they are the top two and both have their worries in this. Rocky Creek was excellent when winning at Sandown park three runs back, but has showed very little the last twice and he’s not one to trust off the same mark. Just A Par has been given a little leniency by the handicapper and if the ground was good, I’d give him a live chance off 146 – however it’s going to be soft-ish and I don’t think he shows his best on that kind of ground. Tom George’s No Duffer and Charlie Mann’s Seventh Sky are in the same boat and it looks as if the ground will be too soft for them as well.
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One who’s been in great form this season is Charlie Longsdon’s Loose Chips, with a win and two further placed finishes at his beloved Sandown Park. His mark’s remained unchanged at 139 and he looks sure to go well once again from the front, especially now his jumping quirks look to have been ironed out somewhat.
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Last year’s winner, Shotavodka, gets in to the race off a mark just 1lb higher than that day and looks to have been slowly coming to the boil again recently. A close third to Benny’s King at Uttoxeter followed by a midfield finish in a Veterans’ Chase at Exeter look like decent prep races for this, but the ground worry is there too with him – his best form came on good to soft last year and he might need it a bit quicker than it will be this year.
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One who used to be with Shotavodka’s trainer, David Pipe, is GOULANES, who now resides at Neil Mulholland’s stable. He returned from more than two years off by being pulled up in the Welsh National, but he showed plenty of spark at times in the first two thirds of the race, making headway into midfield before understandably getting tired. A winner of the Midlands Grand National off a mark of 138, this lightly-raced 11-year-old is now rated 135 and if he retains that level of ability, it’s clearly one that he could take advantage of. He’ll relish softer conditions, should stay no problem and has last weekend’s hero James Best to ride him this week – the jockey will be on a real high still and could make more headlines here. The double figure price reflects the risk I’m taking with a fragile horse, but with conditions in his favour, a nice mark and* hailing from a stable that is brilliant at targeting decent pots, he looks worth a small investment.

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Advice



GOULANES – 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)

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2.40 Newbury – William Hill “High 5” Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.


This is a tricky little contest and perhaps the most interesting of the 12 runners is Nicky Henderson’s Bloody Mary who makes her first start since the Cheltenham Festival. She chased home Limini when finishing third in last season’s inaugural running of the Mares’ Novice Hurdle and she looks an interesting contender starting in handicaps off a mark of 133. She won on heavy ground on her British debut last Spring so the conditions shouldn’t be an issue and it will just be a case of whether she is fit enough to do herself justice here. Presumably this is a prep for a tilt at the Mares’ Hurdle and given her absence, I think she is worth taking on at the head of the market.
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London Prize is also likely to be popular having travelled well into contention before falling at the fourth last at Musselburgh last month. He was well-backed on that occasion for his handicap debut and having run with credit on the flat since then, he looks primed for a big run. The one worry I would have is that he seems to prefer a sounder surface so he could find it hard work in these conditions but he is clearly one of the less exposed in the field.
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Another who attracted support last time was Seamus Mullins’ Chesterfield who was sent off as short as 10/1 for the Lanzarote Hurdle, but the seven-year-old failed to fire, hanging to his left on the home turn. Clearly more was expected from him but he has yet to find his best form in two starts for his current connections. The handicapper has given him a little help by dropping him 3lb and he is another who should have no trouble handling the testing conditions on Saturday.
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However, I like the chances of SUMKINDOFKING who makes his handicap debut here off a mark of 130. The six-year-old won his first two starts under rules in good style but has failed to fire on his last two starts, most recently over 2m4f at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He travelled well before weakening out of things on that occasion and I can understand why connections have decided to drop him back in trip. He still needs to show signs of the ability that he promised earlier in the season but the drop back in trip should suit and I think he has a solid each-way chance.
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One of two at bigger prices who catch the eye is Canton Prince who represents the Tim Vaughan stable. The yard has enjoyed something of a resurgence in recent months and it is interesting that Richard Johnson has been booked to ride the six-year-old on his return to action.
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Gary Moore also thought Loup De Louve good enough to run in a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot a few weeks ago, but the five-year-old only beat two home. His trainer was clear beforehand that the gelding was admired within the yard but also that he would need the run on his first start in nearly a year. It is still early days with him and it would be no surprise to see him take a step forward on his second start for the yard.

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Advice



SUMKINDOFKING – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (bet365, William Hill)



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[bitchy]

3.15 Newbury – William Hill “High 5” Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)


In terms of trainers, Paul Nicholls is by far the most successful in recent years having saddled seven of the last ten winners of this race. He has two representatives this year including the top-weight Vibrato Valtat who was last seen chasing home Templehills at Warwick last month. The eight-year-old was no match for his more progressive rival and he is fitted with blinkers for the first time here in a bid to eke out further improvement from him. Stan Sheppard also takes a useful 5lb off his back which should make life a little easier but even taking that allowance into account, he still has to concede at least 4lb to the whole field here.
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Nicholls’ other hope is More Buck’s who made a fine start to his chasing career, winning three of his first five starts over the larger obstacles. He failed to justify favouritism in what was a hot race at Kempton over Christmas and having jumped one of the guards at Cheltenham last time, he fell at a regulation fence soon after. He comes here on something of a recovery mission but his trainer’s record alone means he is worth a second look.
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Dan Skelton is a former protégé of Nicholls and he saddles an upwardly mobile performer in the shape of Oldgrangewood who looked well ahead of the handicapper when winning at Wetherby last time. That was his third success over fences and given the way he won, it was little surprise that he was hit with a 9lb rise in the weights on the back of it. A mark of 143 is likely to make life more difficult but he seems pretty versatile in terms of ground and it is easy to see why he is popular in the market.
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Just behind Oldgrangewood at Wetherby was Dresden who chased the winner all the way to the line, without necessarily looking like reeling him in. He has since run again at Warwick but came up short once again and it might just be that the handicapper has him in his grasp at present.
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Another who looks high enough in the weights is Tom George’s O’Maonlai having been pulled up in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last time. He didn’t jump very well on that occasion and having been out the back early on, it was always going to be difficult for him to get into contention. One thing he does have in his favour is that his two best runs in the last couple of years have come at Newbury, finishing second here in 2015 before winning the same race 12 months later. He clearly likes it here and with the yard amongst the winners, he is hard to rule out despite his big weight.
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Evan Williams is another trainer in form and Tornado In Milan showed he was in the form of his life when winning at Wincanton at the beginning of February. The eleven-year-old made all over hurdles off a mark of 134 to run out a ready winner and he returns to fences off just 2lb higher on Saturday. He is likely to relish the challenge if turns into a slog but he might struggle to go with some of the younger challengers.
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The one who gets the nod is VIC DE TOUZAINE who got off the mark over fences at Leicester last March, staying on strongly in testing conditions to land the spoils. He made his seasonal return to action at Wincanton last month and it was a pleasing run as he chased home the winner Dusky Lark, with the pair pulling well clear of the third. The third-placed horse won the Betbright Chase last weekend so the form has received something of a boost and he should strip fitter for that run. Venetia Williams won this race with Shangani three years ago and has had horses placed in the last two renewals so this is clearly a race she targets. The eight-year-old doesn’t have too much weight on his back and with further improvement possible on just his seventh start over fences, I fancy him to run a big race.

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Advice



VIC DE TOUZAINE – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)



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3.25 Kelso – totescoop6 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)


Capitaine is turned out quickly having run in the Dovecote at Kempton last week, finishing fourth behind Nicky Henderson’s River Wylde. Once again the five-year-old raced freely out in front and just couldn’t cope with the strong finishing efforts of the three who finished in front of him. Perhaps Kempton is not the ideal place for him but his trainer Paul Nicholls has a very good record at Kelso, so he is worth a second look. His overall form probably make him the one to beat here but there are a couple of other interesting runners in the field.
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Most notably Malcolm Jefferson’s MOUNT MEWS who has won two of his three starts over hurdles, his only blip when being collared close home at Wetherby in January. His trainer has made no secret of the fact that he thinks a lot of this six-year-old and he won with plenty in hand at Doncaster last month. He still has plenty of learning to do and the fact that connections were mulling a trip to Cheltenham shows just how highly regarded he is. He receives a useful 3lb from Capitaine here and having won at the course before, I think he is the one they all have to beat.
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However, this is far from a two-horse race as Harry Fry sends Chalonnial up to Kelso having finished third in the Tolworth Hurdle on his most recent outing. He attempted to make all that day under Noel Fehily but still showed signs of inexperience, having a look at the gaps in the rails on a couple of occasions. If he can get rid of those quirks there could be more to come from him and having finished just behind Capitaine at Sandown, he has the potential to reverse the form with Paul Nicholls’ charge.
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George Charlton’s Fairlee Grey won by a wide margin at Ayr last time but was well-beaten by Mount Mews when the pair met in December and it is hard to see him making up that much ground on our selection. The field is completed by Mirsaale who has been highly-tried this term and on his best form, notably behind Moon Racer at Cheltenham, he would be in with a chance. However, his last two runs have been very disappointing and it is hard to see him bouncing back here.

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Advice



MOUNT MEWS – 1pt win @ 9/4 (bet365)


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3.35 Doncaster – BetBright Grimthorpe Handicap Chase.


Only seven runners for the Grimthorpe Chase on Saturday and the weights are headed by last year’s winner The Last Samuri who went on the finish second in Aintree’s Grand National. Kim Bailey’s nine-year-old is 12lb higher this time around but ran with a lot of credit off a mark of 159 last time, finishing a close third in the Becher Chase. He has been raised 2lb on the back of that effort but considering the winner Vieux Lion Rouge has since gone out and won again, defying this mark isn’t totally out of the question. This race is designed to put him spot on for a return to Aintree in the Spring and whilst I expect he will run his race, I think he may find it tough to concede weight all around.
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Brian Ellison’s Definitly Red is likely to be popular having already landed one big prize in the Rowland Meyrick this season. The eight-year-old unseated when fifth in the Peter Marsh Chase last time and whilst in all likelihood he would have been well-beaten by the winner, he was still running a good race from his elevated mark. This slightly quicker ground should be no problem for him but he has had a few tough races already this season and I wonder whether these might have left a mark.
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Yala Enki is no stranger to handicap success over hurdles and fences and his most recent victory came at Haydock in December when he ran away with the Tommy Whittle Chase. He came home some eight lengths clear of his nearest rival on that occasion and probably found the race coming too soon at Wetherby nine days later. The handicapper has dropped him 2lb for that which makes him a little more competitive and his trainer Venetia Williams is always to be respected in staying chases. He does have to prove he can produce his best on this sounder surface but it would be no surprise to see him in the mix.
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Course form can often go a long way at Doncaster and Looking Well boasts some good form, having finished second in the SkyBet Chase on Town Moore in January. Nicky Richards’ eight-year-old chased home Ziga Boy on that occasion and was staying on all the way up the straight, suggesting that the extra two furlongs are likely to suit him. He does have to cope with another 5lb rise for that run but he continues to improve and with little weight on his back, it is hard to see him being out of the mix.
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However, I fancied WAKANDA to run well in the Grand National Trial a couple of weeks ago but following a couple of early jumping errors, he soon dropped away before being pulled up. Clearly something wasn’t right that day but the time before that, he finished ahead of the likes of Blaklion and Yala Enki when chasing home Definitly Red in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. He gets a nice pull in the weights with Definitly Red here and if he can get into a rhythm early on, I think he is the sort of horse who could suit Doncaster. This good to soft ground is probably close to his ideal and although there are only the seven runners, I think he is worth a small each-way bet at around 12/1.
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Advice



WAKANDA – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)


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4.10 Doncaster – Grandnational2017.com Novices’ Hurdle.



Although this doesn’t look the strongest novice hurdle, there are still a few interesting contenders to look at, starting with Kim Bailey’s penalised Thumb Stone Blues. His win on hurdling debut at Sedgefield was impressive, but he didn’t fire next time out under this winners’ penalty at that same track, finishing beaten by eleven lengths by a 128-rated horse of Micky Hammond’s. That’s not strong form and he looks to have work to do to defy this penalty with a few unexposed rivals in the field, even though his trainer won the race last year with a horse in the same ownership.
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On form, the pick is arguably the Warren Greatrex-trained BOAGRIUS, who was an excellent winner of his bumper at Catterick before disappointing a bit on hurdling debut at Ludlow. It was a tough ask over 2m 5f in soft ground and it was made harder when Richard Johnson dropped his whip between the last two, but the five-year-old was still well supported and better was expected. This drop back to 2m 31/2f should suit better and the better ground than he got at Ludlow should also help, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t go very well indeed.
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Be Daring is an eyecatching entry from the Paul Nicholls stable and running in the Hales colours, but looks to have a bit to find with Boagrius to challenge here. He was an OK bumper performer and wasn’t particularly well-backed on his hurdling debut at Warwick, where he was in contention two out before taking a very heavy fall. That could well have left its mark on the horse and it wouldn’t surprise me to see some sticky jumping from the six-year-old initially, but he could be the main threat to the Greatrex horse nonetheless.
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As for the rest, the Stuart Edmunds-trained Tricky Silence might be the most interesting. Although not exactly impressive in the pointing field (P-OF5), this horse did show some promise on his latest start and the owner/trainer combination have had some success with novices this season, so in a weak race, he could run into a place if anything untoward happens to the obvious three.

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Advice



BOAGRIUS – 2pts win @ 5/4 (bet365)


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5.00 Newbury – Moore of Devizes Ltd Supporting Greatwood Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.


Once again, Newbury looks to have put on a very strong bumper race to finish the card and the weights are headed by the penalised winner of a Wincanton bumper a month ago, Sam Brown. The five-year-old Anthony Honeyball-trained gelding stayed on manfully in tough conditions to justify his well-backed status on his racecourse debut. This does look a severe step up in class for him though and under a penalty, he looks worth swerving.
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Nicky Henderson often runs good ones at this track and he has Chef Des Obeaux entered up here for his UK debut. He looked a slightly one-paced individual on his two runs in France, so while the ground won’t be a concern, whether this son of Saddler Maker has the pace to make a winning debut is. Still, with Sean Bowen on board and hailing from his top stable, he’ll have to be closely watched, especially if the market speaks majorly in his favour.
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TALKISCHEAP ran well on his debut for Alan King behind Cirano De Sivola, another good Warren Greatrex-trained bumper winner at Wawrick, and will surely be there or thereabouts given how strong a race that looked. This triple point winner looked like the winner for much of the race, but didn’t see it out as well as his more experienced rival and will have come on plenty for that. I can’t see him being out of the first three home here and this £55,000 purchase should begin to start to pay back his purchase price sooner rather than later.
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Another who was second on their rules debut was Sgroppino, trained by Philip Hobbs. Although he hasn’t been seen since that Newton Abbot bumper in October, he looks one to keep an eye on with the bumper including Misterton, The Caller, Scotchtown, Ballymnountain Bay and Bistouri D’Honore – all useful horses. Although there’s nothing fancy in the pedigree and relatives of this one, he stuck on nicely after being held up near the rear of the contest and should have come on plenty for that. The concern would be that he’s missed the winter due to a ground preference and things could be too soft for him here.
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Arguably, the best form in the race comes courtesy of Richard Hobson’s Dame Rose, who was a good fifth in a bumper won by Monty’s Award at Worcester, before being an impressive winner at Doncaster in a Mares’ bumper. She faces her male counterparts again here and has to step up again, but it would be silly to ignore the fact she’s looked a very decent performer so far just because her win came against her own sex. However, this soft ground asks her a question she hasn’t been asked before and the fact she’s been campaigned away from soft winter ground could be an indication that she won’t particularly appreciate it.
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Advice


TALKISCHEAP – 1pt win @ 9/2 (bet365

[Istabraq]

Great to see you back bitchy, hope all is well....

[bitchy]

yea I'm good thanks Ista ,, good to be back

[Istabraq]

There's a few pieces of the jigsaw still missing, hope you can make us see sense...

Starting with the Supreme !

[mayo]

Bitchy

it is the most wonderful time of the year ...

[Morning Glory]

Welcome back bitchy.

Following you in on Wakanda - pity there arent 8 in it. Have stuck shotofvodka and mark walsh's 3 rides at navan in a L31.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I can see the sense with Wakanda but I'd be worried about his course record, 0 from 4, quite like
Sego Success, have it in an ew double with Shotavodka

[Old Vic]

Great recovery from Jody McGarvey there. Will have some nice rides next week.

It does take time for penny to drop with some of Mullins jumpers ..

[Kevloaf]

Great recovery from Jody McGarvey there. Will have some nice rides next week.

It does take time for penny to drop with some of Mullins jumpers ..

That was exciting! I Wonder if they'll revert to hurdles with Identity Thief.

[MrMcGoldrick]

That was exciting! I Wonder if they'll revert to hurdles with Identity Thief.

only looking like a handicapper over fences so nothing to lose by switching back

[Old Vic]

Like the owners who cant be bothered entering horses at Sandown I am not fully engaged bit will probably back Pipes for an interest.

Note to self: This is a lazy bet. Discipline needed.

[bitchy]

wheres my post gone for this weekends races

[mayo]

Mark Walsh ...31 rides and 28 days since his last winner. He has two rides at Gowran today and 4 at Naas tomorrow.