Weekend Racing

[Kevloaf]

Oh My God, CAptain Mowbray .....! That ride has just given Jack Kennedy a run for his money! That was incredible!!!!!!!!!!

[Kevloaf]

Bring back Bryan Cooper Fox Norton, pathetic.

[Hurricane fly]

There must have been an ungodly amount of money for Dumhach Thra in the bumper from 22:1 into 5s

[Hurricane fly]

Panic over Hollowgraphic sweeps up fairly easily

[Bayoffreedom]

On the basis that the week between Christmas and New Year is like a long weekend, please allow me to provide an update on this thread. The entries/weights are out for the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown on December 27th. Bay of Freedom is entered and is an intended runner. He is 2nd on RP Topspeed ratings and joint 7th on RPR. The forfeit stage is 19/12 so a few will drop out then and some more at the overnight declarations; but there will likely be a maximum field of 30. Paddy Power has kicked off with prices and Bay of Freedom is 25/1; other bookmakers may go longer odds and he could be worth a speculative e/w bet at big odds; I would expect him to be nearer to 12/1 -14/1 on the day. Feel free to ignore this but I did want to give you an early 'heads up' in case you were interested.

[Kevloaf]

On the basis that the week between Christmas and New Year is like a long weekend, please allow me to provide an update on this thread. The entries/weights are out for the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown on December 27th. Bay of Freedom is entered and is an intended runner. He is 2nd on RP Topspeed ratings and joint 7th on RPR. The forfeit stage is 19/12 so a few will drop out then and some more at the overnight declarations; but there will likely be a maximum field of 30. Paddy Power has kicked off with prices and Bay of Freedom is 25/1; other bookmakers may go longer odds and he could be worth a speculative e/w bet at big odds; I would expect him to be nearer to 12/1 -14/1 on the day. Feel free to ignore this but I did want to give you an early 'heads up' in case you were interested.

Thanks BoF. Much appreciated... looking forward to a Christmas blog ...

[Kevloaf]

I've followed Andy Holding on Clan Des Obeaux for the weekend.

His latest performance was a proper coming-of-age moment as he had every opportunity to shirk the issue all the way down the long home straight at Haydock last time out, but finding plenty for pressure having travelled best throughout, he eventually broke the heart of the granite-tough Vintage Clouds and that has to go down as a pivotal moment in his career. Moreover, the likes of the well-regarded pair, Born Survivor and Cyruis Darius were punch-drunk in behind and if you add on top of that, the fact that the five-year-old also covered the final circuit of the Lancashire venue three seconds quicker than Bristol De Mai, who couldn’t have been any more impressive in landing the Betfair Chase an hour later, it just puts into context the kind of levels the Nicholls runner performed to that day.

Prior to that tremendous effort on the numbers, he’d also given Whisper plenty to think about in a driving finish off level weights at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance and given what his conqueror went on to achieve in the Ladbroke Handicap (formerly the Hennessy)

The bold bits are enough for me - sea of blue on oddschecker but hard to be too bullish about any of the first 5 behind Ginge last time being great bets to reverse the form with any degree of authority IMO

Sometimes better to look for a complete different formline.

[Istabraq]

On the basis that the week between Christmas and New Year is like a long weekend, please allow me to provide an update on this thread. The entries/weights are out for the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown on December 27th. Bay of Freedom is entered and is an intended runner. He is 2nd on RP Topspeed ratings and joint 7th on RPR. The forfeit stage is 19/12 so a few will drop out then and some more at the overnight declarations; but there will likely be a maximum field of 30. Paddy Power has kicked off with prices and Bay of Freedom is 25/1; other bookmakers may go longer odds and he could be worth a speculative e/w bet at big odds; I would expect him to be nearer to 12/1 -14/1 on the day. Feel free to ignore this but I did want to give you an early 'heads up' in case you were interested.

Good man BOF.
I'll swerve the AP prices but will take an interest on the day, good luck !

[Kevloaf]

Thought I'd mentioned this on here, but must have been elsewhere.... I thought 7/2 for Melon was stupid do had 3 pts on - inevitabbely be a non runner now

I see CDO is now best price 9/2 from above so hopefully I get a run for both....

Anyone got anything for Cheltenham tomorrow?

I'm tempted to back Tiger Roll at 10/1 tomorrow...





AND, as an additional caveat..... if Melon is odds against on the day I think I'll include him in every bet I have!

I don't think the fact he is 'wrong' at the weights is enough.... he is a CLEAR 3rd fav at around 10/1 for the CH. MTOY is available at 66/1 and TNO isn't even quoted because he wouldn't be anywhere near good enough!!!

[Bayoffreedom]

T

Anyone got anything for Cheltenham tomorrow?

I'm tempted to back Tiger Roll at 10/1 tomorrow...

I think Mysteree has an outstanding chance in the Grade3. His record first time out is excellent and it will be a slog tomorrow so the distance should be fine

I would love to see Tiger Roll take to the X-Country course but am always reluctant to back them first time. Josie's Orders seems really short to me considering he meets Mtada Supreme on 15 pounds worse terms than when beaten by a nose last time out; it seems his price is more based on historical performance than current. I keep coming back to Cantlow and I promised myself I would never back the horse; that looks like another broken promise!

I thought Anteros ran a really nice race against Thomas Campbell last time. The four pounds rise isn't ideal but he was the only one to make a race of it against a high class horse. He likes the course, wil go on the ground and will hopefully pounce late

[BigChaang]

Lucky 15 for saturday at cheltenham ., - 1. Starchitect - 1-55
2. Count meribel - 2-30
3. Melon - 3-05
4. brillare momento - 3-40
May the force be with you if your betting saturday !

[Faugheen_Machine]

Melon is my only bet today. He has to be winning this to justify his position in the champion hurdle betting.

[Kevloaf]

Melon is my only bet today. He has to be winning this to justify his position in the champion hurdle betting.

Completely agree. I took 7/2 early in the week and will have again today.

If he doesn't win today he'll be back out to 25/1 for the CH

[Garrison Savannah]

Don't understand the love for Melon here. He needs to improve therefore he will??

[Kevloaf]

Don't understand the love for Melon here. He needs to improve therefore he will??

Pays to back younger improving horses than ones on the decline?

Working backwards from the CH I just don't understand how the 14/1 3rd fav can not be expecting to beat a 66/1 and horse that isn't quoted.

On those two points alone I think it is worth backing GS

I'd sooner back MTOY than TNO today