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Kempton,Wetherby and Limerick 26/12/2016
12.55 Limerick – The Signsplus Hurdle Race.
This looks pretty competitive on paper but one that stands out above the rest is ALLBLAK DES PLACES. Willie Mullins’ charge was a live outsider in the lead up to last season’s Triumph Hurdle on the back of a very good second behind stablemate Footpad in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown but skipped that engagement at the Cheltenham Festival and has not been seen on the track since. His layoff shouldn’t prove too much of an issue though as the Closutton handler usually has his horses in tip-top condition and he showed last year that he goes well fresh when shedding his maiden tag after a similar lengthy break. The form of that race hasn’t particularly been tested yet with the front two pulling well clear of the remainder but we may be afforded some clues when the runner-up Outspoken makes his seasonal reappearance in the 12.15 at Leopardstown. In any case, he has shown his capabilities at Grade 1 level and should have nothing to fear in this field with conditions perfect and the step up in trip likely to suit him down to the ground.
Former stablemate Val de Ferbet is probably the biggest danger but his record over the last couple of seasons is there for all to see. The seven-year-old was a Grade 2 winner over fences as a novice and a Grade 2 runner-up over hurdles back in 2015 but since leaving Willie Mullins, has struggled to get his head in front in six attempts, finishing as the bridesmaid on four separate occasions. It remains to be seen whether the drop back to 2m4f will see him in the best light but at least the easier underfoot conditions will be in his favour here. He will likely run his race and is entitled to finish in the frame but has failed to land a telling blow in similar contests in recent times, finding little when push comes to shove, and is vulnerable to less exposed, improving sorts – especially the pair of four-year-olds with their handy 4lb weight-for-age allowance.
One to keep a close eye on is the second 4yo in the field Runfordave who has been steadily progressive in bumpers and over hurdles since making his debut at the Punchestown Festival back in April. He improved with each start in bumpers, scoring at the third attempt at Down Royal in November despite showing signs of greenness, and has carried that form to over the sticks with a pair of highly respectable efforts. He finished a close-up third in a decent-looking novice event on his hurdles debut with only the useful Moulin A Vent and subsequent Fairyhouse scorer Minella Till Dawn ahead of him and duly obliged at the second time of asking in another strong maiden, accounting for Champion Bumper fourth Castello Sforza in the process. He seems to be progressing nicely and is clearly learning with every visit to the track so certainly has a chance of mixing it with the principals.
Advice
ALLBLAK DES PLACES – 2pts win @ 5/6 (Paddy Power)
*
1.30 Kempton – 32RED.COM Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)
Nicky Henderson could be in for a fruitful boxing day and GOLD PRESENT has very strong claims here. Last season proved to be a write off as he failed to show any form in three starts. However, he bounced back and proved to be a very well-handicapped horse when winning in good style at Doncaster on his chasing debut last month. He did make a couple of early errors but he warmed to the task and jumped well in the second half of the race. That experience will have done him the world of good and I expect more to come on just his ninth start. Before last season it’s worth remembering he won maiden and novice hurdles without breaking sweat, after finishing second to the subsequent Fred Winter winner, Qualando, whom he was giving 10lb to. For me a 7lb rise wouldn’t have stopped him winning at Doncaster, and whilst this is a deeper contest, I expect him to have improved quite a lot and he’s attractively priced at 7/2.
Poker School has been priced up as the main danger to the selection but he will need to improve on his Ascot win to defy a rise in class and an 8lb rise in the weights. His trainer said afterwards that this horse doesn’t have much scope and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t find at least one or two of these too good.
Two Taffs has always been thought of as a chaser by connections and isn’t without hope. He certainly has the size and scope to be a chaser and will no doubt prove to be better than a 138-rated chaser in time. This does look a deep enough race to make his chase debut in though, and he could be one for the second half of the season.
Sizing Tennessee has bumped into two smart Nicky Henderson prospects over fences so far this term (O O Seven & Whisper) and it looks like it could be a similar story here. He has to concede 2lb to Gold Present and he also looks more at home on heavy ground, so unless there is plenty of rain before now and the race, he looks a shade vulnerable for win purposes.
The top-weight is San Benedeto is a consistent sort, and was still going well before departing at Cheltenham last time. He looks sure to run his race again but he holds no secrets from the handicapper off his current mark.
The two remaining runners, Max Ward and Remiluc, cannot be overlooked lightly having both shown ability over fences so far. The former was a smart hurdler and gave Parlour Games a race in May 2014. He always faced an impossible task taking on Altior last time and this is a more suitable task, but I suspect he will come up short. Meanwhile, the latter ran well on his chasing debut at Newbury but like Max Ward, he’ll probably need some of the big guns to misfire if he’s to win this.
Advice
GOLD PRESENT – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
*
1.50 Wetherby – 188Bet Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.
A strong renewal on paper and it looks a good race for each-way players with 10 runners standing their ground at the declaration stage. A few trends to consider, the first being low weights have historically done well in this race. Since 2000 six of the 11 winners have carried 10st 8lb or less. In the same time frame there have also only been two winning favourites and seven of the 11 winners have returned at 7/1 or bigger, suggesting it may not pay to focus solely on those at the top of the market.
At the time of writing Blaklion and Yala Enki are vying for favouritism at around 7/2. The RSA winner Blaklion tops the weights and this represents a drop in class having run in the Charlie Hall Chase and the Hennessy so far this term. He caught my eye in the latter but didn’t quite see out the trip as well as some. He’s in calmer waters here and I can see him running well but he’s passed over at the prices giving weight away all-round.
Yala Enki made a winning chase debut at Haydock earlier this month and has been hit by a 10lb rise as a result. That puts him on a career high mark which looks within his limits but the quick return to the track has to be a slight concern. As has the forecast better ground, with his best from coming on a soft surface. He would be of interest if there was plenty of rain around but on good to soft or better I’d be happy to take him on.
The market spoke volumes for Definitly Red in the Rehearsal Chase last time out but as has been the case in the past, he was let down by his jumping. He was doing his best work at the finish on that occasion but he could find himself on the back foot again if his jumping lets him down. He’s clearly highly regarded but I’m not willing to take a chance at around 9/2 that his jumping will have vastly improved since Newcastle.
Henri Parry Morgan looked a stayer on the up when second to Native River at Aintree in the spring but he struggled in the Hennessy off his revised handicap mark. He’s 15lb higher than when winning at Uttoxeter and I’d like to see how he fares here off 150 before getting involved. He could well have needed the run last time but he was strong enough in the betting to suggest he was straight enough, but isn’t one to write off just yet.
Next in the betting is Charlie Longsdon’s Our Kaempfer. He’s a horse with lots of potential but is still searching for his first win since March 2015. He ran well last time out at Newbury when proving no match for Clan Des Obeaux; he probably paid for taking that rival on, resulting in him losing second place. He steps back up to 3m which he has shown is within his reach when running well behind Thistlecrack at Aintree, and Mall Dini in the Pertempts Final. He has a nice weight here so I would expect him to run well again, but his ability to find a way of not winning puts me off slightly.
That leads me to the selection and the bottom weight ACTINPIECES. Trainer Pam Sly and jockey Gina Andrews teamed up to with Helpston to finish 2nd in the race in 2011 and they look to have another strong contender here. She has had three runs this term, but you can write off her second start at Market Rasen as she was in season. Before that she took on Ballybolley here and was still in with every chance before a last fence mistake ended their challenge. She has made amends since though, returning to Wetherby to lower the colours of the odds on favourite Zeroshadesofgrey. Having also won a novice hurdle at the track it’s not surprise to see connections return to a venue she likes. Over hurdles she finished a close 2nd off a 1lb lower mark and given she has always been thought of as a chaser I think she has plenty of potential off this mark. This is a step-up in class but she receives weight all round and is versatile ground wise, so at around 14/1 Pam Sly’s five-year-old makes plenty of each-way appeal.
Elsewhere, last year’s winning trainer Warren Greatrex saddles Ballyculla. He also makes some appeal each-way at around 14/1. He won a three-runner novice chase here last season before pulling up in the Scottish National and I doubt we’ve seen the best of him yet. Having said that his jumping wasn’t great in the Eider Chase last season and back in a competitive handicap may just find him out first time up.
Seventh Sky and Wakanda wouldn’t be out of it if bouncing back to their best but I get the impression they may come up short in this field. Wakanda is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but has shown very little since that win, whilst Seventh Sky is still 4lbs above his last winning mark.
Advice
ACTINPIECES – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Betway)
12.55 Limerick – The Signsplus Hurdle Race.
This looks pretty competitive on paper but one that stands out above the rest is ALLBLAK DES PLACES. Willie Mullins’ charge was a live outsider in the lead up to last season’s Triumph Hurdle on the back of a very good second behind stablemate Footpad in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown but skipped that engagement at the Cheltenham Festival and has not been seen on the track since. His layoff shouldn’t prove too much of an issue though as the Closutton handler usually has his horses in tip-top condition and he showed last year that he goes well fresh when shedding his maiden tag after a similar lengthy break. The form of that race hasn’t particularly been tested yet with the front two pulling well clear of the remainder but we may be afforded some clues when the runner-up Outspoken makes his seasonal reappearance in the 12.15 at Leopardstown. In any case, he has shown his capabilities at Grade 1 level and should have nothing to fear in this field with conditions perfect and the step up in trip likely to suit him down to the ground.
Former stablemate Val de Ferbet is probably the biggest danger but his record over the last couple of seasons is there for all to see. The seven-year-old was a Grade 2 winner over fences as a novice and a Grade 2 runner-up over hurdles back in 2015 but since leaving Willie Mullins, has struggled to get his head in front in six attempts, finishing as the bridesmaid on four separate occasions. It remains to be seen whether the drop back to 2m4f will see him in the best light but at least the easier underfoot conditions will be in his favour here. He will likely run his race and is entitled to finish in the frame but has failed to land a telling blow in similar contests in recent times, finding little when push comes to shove, and is vulnerable to less exposed, improving sorts – especially the pair of four-year-olds with their handy 4lb weight-for-age allowance.
One to keep a close eye on is the second 4yo in the field Runfordave who has been steadily progressive in bumpers and over hurdles since making his debut at the Punchestown Festival back in April. He improved with each start in bumpers, scoring at the third attempt at Down Royal in November despite showing signs of greenness, and has carried that form to over the sticks with a pair of highly respectable efforts. He finished a close-up third in a decent-looking novice event on his hurdles debut with only the useful Moulin A Vent and subsequent Fairyhouse scorer Minella Till Dawn ahead of him and duly obliged at the second time of asking in another strong maiden, accounting for Champion Bumper fourth Castello Sforza in the process. He seems to be progressing nicely and is clearly learning with every visit to the track so certainly has a chance of mixing it with the principals.
Advice
ALLBLAK DES PLACES – 2pts win @ 5/6 (Paddy Power)
*
1.30 Kempton – 32RED.COM Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)
Nicky Henderson could be in for a fruitful boxing day and GOLD PRESENT has very strong claims here. Last season proved to be a write off as he failed to show any form in three starts. However, he bounced back and proved to be a very well-handicapped horse when winning in good style at Doncaster on his chasing debut last month. He did make a couple of early errors but he warmed to the task and jumped well in the second half of the race. That experience will have done him the world of good and I expect more to come on just his ninth start. Before last season it’s worth remembering he won maiden and novice hurdles without breaking sweat, after finishing second to the subsequent Fred Winter winner, Qualando, whom he was giving 10lb to. For me a 7lb rise wouldn’t have stopped him winning at Doncaster, and whilst this is a deeper contest, I expect him to have improved quite a lot and he’s attractively priced at 7/2.
Poker School has been priced up as the main danger to the selection but he will need to improve on his Ascot win to defy a rise in class and an 8lb rise in the weights. His trainer said afterwards that this horse doesn’t have much scope and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t find at least one or two of these too good.
Two Taffs has always been thought of as a chaser by connections and isn’t without hope. He certainly has the size and scope to be a chaser and will no doubt prove to be better than a 138-rated chaser in time. This does look a deep enough race to make his chase debut in though, and he could be one for the second half of the season.
Sizing Tennessee has bumped into two smart Nicky Henderson prospects over fences so far this term (O O Seven & Whisper) and it looks like it could be a similar story here. He has to concede 2lb to Gold Present and he also looks more at home on heavy ground, so unless there is plenty of rain before now and the race, he looks a shade vulnerable for win purposes.
The top-weight is San Benedeto is a consistent sort, and was still going well before departing at Cheltenham last time. He looks sure to run his race again but he holds no secrets from the handicapper off his current mark.
The two remaining runners, Max Ward and Remiluc, cannot be overlooked lightly having both shown ability over fences so far. The former was a smart hurdler and gave Parlour Games a race in May 2014. He always faced an impossible task taking on Altior last time and this is a more suitable task, but I suspect he will come up short. Meanwhile, the latter ran well on his chasing debut at Newbury but like Max Ward, he’ll probably need some of the big guns to misfire if he’s to win this.
Advice
GOLD PRESENT – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
*
1.50 Wetherby – 188Bet Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.
A strong renewal on paper and it looks a good race for each-way players with 10 runners standing their ground at the declaration stage. A few trends to consider, the first being low weights have historically done well in this race. Since 2000 six of the 11 winners have carried 10st 8lb or less. In the same time frame there have also only been two winning favourites and seven of the 11 winners have returned at 7/1 or bigger, suggesting it may not pay to focus solely on those at the top of the market.
At the time of writing Blaklion and Yala Enki are vying for favouritism at around 7/2. The RSA winner Blaklion tops the weights and this represents a drop in class having run in the Charlie Hall Chase and the Hennessy so far this term. He caught my eye in the latter but didn’t quite see out the trip as well as some. He’s in calmer waters here and I can see him running well but he’s passed over at the prices giving weight away all-round.
Yala Enki made a winning chase debut at Haydock earlier this month and has been hit by a 10lb rise as a result. That puts him on a career high mark which looks within his limits but the quick return to the track has to be a slight concern. As has the forecast better ground, with his best from coming on a soft surface. He would be of interest if there was plenty of rain around but on good to soft or better I’d be happy to take him on.
The market spoke volumes for Definitly Red in the Rehearsal Chase last time out but as has been the case in the past, he was let down by his jumping. He was doing his best work at the finish on that occasion but he could find himself on the back foot again if his jumping lets him down. He’s clearly highly regarded but I’m not willing to take a chance at around 9/2 that his jumping will have vastly improved since Newcastle.
Henri Parry Morgan looked a stayer on the up when second to Native River at Aintree in the spring but he struggled in the Hennessy off his revised handicap mark. He’s 15lb higher than when winning at Uttoxeter and I’d like to see how he fares here off 150 before getting involved. He could well have needed the run last time but he was strong enough in the betting to suggest he was straight enough, but isn’t one to write off just yet.
Next in the betting is Charlie Longsdon’s Our Kaempfer. He’s a horse with lots of potential but is still searching for his first win since March 2015. He ran well last time out at Newbury when proving no match for Clan Des Obeaux; he probably paid for taking that rival on, resulting in him losing second place. He steps back up to 3m which he has shown is within his reach when running well behind Thistlecrack at Aintree, and Mall Dini in the Pertempts Final. He has a nice weight here so I would expect him to run well again, but his ability to find a way of not winning puts me off slightly.
That leads me to the selection and the bottom weight ACTINPIECES. Trainer Pam Sly and jockey Gina Andrews teamed up to with Helpston to finish 2nd in the race in 2011 and they look to have another strong contender here. She has had three runs this term, but you can write off her second start at Market Rasen as she was in season. Before that she took on Ballybolley here and was still in with every chance before a last fence mistake ended their challenge. She has made amends since though, returning to Wetherby to lower the colours of the odds on favourite Zeroshadesofgrey. Having also won a novice hurdle at the track it’s not surprise to see connections return to a venue she likes. Over hurdles she finished a close 2nd off a 1lb lower mark and given she has always been thought of as a chaser I think she has plenty of potential off this mark. This is a step-up in class but she receives weight all round and is versatile ground wise, so at around 14/1 Pam Sly’s five-year-old makes plenty of each-way appeal.
Elsewhere, last year’s winning trainer Warren Greatrex saddles Ballyculla. He also makes some appeal each-way at around 14/1. He won a three-runner novice chase here last season before pulling up in the Scottish National and I doubt we’ve seen the best of him yet. Having said that his jumping wasn’t great in the Eider Chase last season and back in a competitive handicap may just find him out first time up.
Seventh Sky and Wakanda wouldn’t be out of it if bouncing back to their best but I get the impression they may come up short in this field. Wakanda is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but has shown very little since that win, whilst Seventh Sky is still 4lbs above his last winning mark.
Advice
ACTINPIECES – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Betway)
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