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**mayo** · 8 December 2016, 09:01 PM

Ista you have a great eye for the cross country races. hope there are no nrs. ill do the reverse forecast for an interest.

two yankees - couldnt split William Henry and Gaitway

Bally Longford @ 9/1
Auvergnat @ 4/1
Call To Order @ 9/2
Gaitway @ 5/1
Yankee, 11 bets * �1.00 E/W

Bally Longford @ 9/1
Auvergnat @ 4/1
Call To Order @ 9/2
William Henry @ 6/1
Yankee, 11 bets * �1.00 E/W

**dazzler** · 9 December 2016, 08:23 AM

I'm really struggling with Cheltenham today so will probably follow you in on
Perfect candidate ista, there was a good write up on conor shoemark for a jockey to follow so fingers crossed.I'm off to Bangor today my local track so will have a dabble for Cheltenham from there. Startichect makes chasing debut a few winners have come from his last hurdle race to fences so he could be intresting but sp and hare breath is fav looks a tricky race to crack.
My other selection is another bill 9-2 handicap debut good mention from trainer. Good luck everyone.

**Kevloaf** · 9 December 2016, 01:42 PM

Cracking race there. Bally Longford and Perfect Candidate both had that won at different stages.... very close! I followed you both in each way for a bit of interest.

**mayo** · 9 December 2016, 03:09 PM

Cashed out before my last league- pity Bally L didnt get up the hill

**Faugheen_Machine** · 9 December 2016, 03:19 PM

Unlucky Ista - thought you'd won on first viewing with Perfect Candidate.

**Istabraq** · 9 December 2016, 04:01 PM

Gutted fellas, absolutely gutted, pressed at 20s too so had a big position.
Like you FM I saw 2 replays and thought he'd just got his head down at the right time, this horse is all about jumping, he travelled far worse than others and at the top of the hill 3 or 4 others looked bigger challengers but he jumps, stays and battles, exactly what you need for a National horse.
Though it's the worse case scenario for connections, lose out on a big pot and still go up 5lb.

My other horse was pulled and having made it a 2 horse race I got stuck into Cantlow so claimed some compensation, though had PC held on I would probably have pressed on Cantlow and paid for Christmas !
Hey ho....

**Istabraq** · 9 December 2016, 04:10 PM

Dazzler - hope you enjoyed Bangor, I went there for the first time a few weeks back, quirky to say the least.
Only course with no stand so on a bad day (we were lucky, hot and sunny for Wales this day) not sure how you avoid the elements, and not being able to get near the straight/win line takes some getting used to.
And I never had a winner !!!
Always love a trip to a new track tho....

**Faugheen_Machine** · 9 December 2016, 04:46 PM

Are you chipping away on the exchanges for Perfect Candidate for the Grand National Ista? Someone keeps knocking him back into around 100/1 so I'm guessing it's you.

**Istabraq** · 9 December 2016, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post

Are you chipping away on the exchanges for Perfect Candidate for the Grand National Ista? Someone keeps knocking him back into around 100/1 so I'm guessing it's you.

Maybe......

**Faugheen_Machine** · 9 December 2016, 05:01 PM

You keep beating me to the punch!

**Istabraq** · 9 December 2016, 05:04 PM

Sorry mate, trying to get matched at 120/130 but unlikely there'll be any takers at this stage

**Faugheen_Machine** · 9 December 2016, 05:31 PM

Good luck. I agree that he looks made for Aintree, his jumping is a massive strength.

**bitchy** · 9 December 2016, 06:39 PM

Cheltenham, Doncaster,Saturday 10/12/2016

12.40 Cheltenham – The Ryman Novices’ Steeple Chase.

There aren’t many novice chases at Cheltenham that don’t attract the big names but this particular contest has a particularly illustrious roll of honour including Don’t Push It, Tidal Bay, Reve de Sivola, Oscar Whisky and More Of That all within the last ten years.

Nicky Henderson has won two of the last five renewals and looks to hold all the aces this time round with a third of the six-strong field. Whisper was by far the best of these over hurdles with back-to-back wins in Aintree’s Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle to his name but he looked well below hitting that level in three runs last term. He was far from convincing on his only chase start to date when turned over at long odds-on at Exeter and although conditions are likely to be in his favour, it would take a very brave man to side with him.

Henderson’s best chance looks to be with the unexposed DIFFERENT GRAVEY who could not have been more impressive when easily accounting for a select but classy field at Ascot on his chasing debut last month. He was highly progressive over hurdles last campaign, hosing up in a competitive handicap at Ascot before paying the price for trying to live with Thistlecrack at Aintree on his final start. He was very few miles on the clock having only raced seven times under Rules (with five wins to his name) and the way he jumped last time out was hugely impressive. That didn’t come as a major surprise given he won his sole start in points but more confirmed the thinking that he is in the top rank of novice chasers this year. His immaturity has been the only thing holding him back in his career as connections believed he had the ability to be an RSA horse last year but he seems to be heading firmly in the right direction and should take a world of beating.

Baron Alco is the one likely to give the selection most to do although he was flattered by the winning margin last time out with his nearest rival Wishing And Hoping crashing out, albeit when looking under pressure. He was steadily progressive over the sticks last campaign and ran a cracker when only narrowly headed by Rock The Kasbah in a Grade 3 handicap at Ascot last January. He made an encouraging start to life over fences when a close-up third in a competitive heat at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting and looked to benefit from that with a sound round of jumping at Plumpton next time. This is a much sterner test but he has time on his side as an improving five-year-old and should benefit from the step up in trip.

Another to consider is Sizing Tennessee who put in a decent display despite being soundly beaten over course and distance by O O Seven on his chasing debut. The eight-year-old has had his problems but threatened to be a pretty classy bumper horse and hurdler in his time with Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead and clearly has the ability to prove competitive at this sort of level. He certainly looks as though he could make up into a chaser and provided his new handler Colin Tizzard can keep him sound, he can pick up a couple of prozes this year even if this one may prove just a bit too tough.

Of the remainder, San Benedeto looks to have a very tough ask conceding weight all round even if conditions are well and truly in his favour. He made hay in the summer but has been found out in this kind of class since returning in the autumn. Zarib will surely come on for his seasonal debut a month ago but has a bit to find with a few of these on his hurdles form and.

Advice

DIFFERENT GRAVEY – 2pts win @ 8/11 (bet365)

12.55 Doncaster – bet365.com Handicap Chase.

Last year’s winner of this race, Sego Success, is back for another crack and with just 2lb more on his back; he has to be very well respected. Alan King’s stayer made a very satisfactory return to action at Bangor a month ago, finishing stoutly behind the re-opposing Valadom, looking as if he’d come on for the first visit to a racetrack since April. He enjoys a flat track and clearly goes well here so plenty looks in his favour. He would probably appreciate a bit of rain overnight and if the ground does turn soft he’d be in with a huge chance, but the combination of the likely good to soft ground and the welter burden he has to carry could leave him vulnerable to a couple of others with a bit too much pace, even though you’d expect him to be staying on at the end.

Valadom has done well for Richard Hobson and his Bangor win looks decent form in the context of this race, even though he had a fitness edge on most of his rivals there and got his own way in front. The grey didn’t seem to enjoy his first experience of Aintree when pulled up in the Grand Sefton a week ago, so this return to standard fences and this company should help, but I can’t help but think a mark of 141 might be beyond him now.

After a reappearance pipe-opener over hurdles at Cheltenham, No Duffer should be in good shape to show his best here for Tom George. He’ll have no issues with trip or ground (unless there’s a downpour) and looks a solid contender, even though his mark of 139 is his highest ever by 6lbs and he’ll have to improve again to be winning.

Sue Smith has two in the race, firstly Straidnahanna, who was beaten into fourth in this race last year off a 4lb lower mark and hat indicates to me that he might be facing an uphill task to get his hat into the ring at the business end here. He’s won off 129 and 128 in the last two years, so he might need to come down a few pounds more.

Blakemount is her other entrant and this eight-year-old has only had six runs over fences so far, winning once at Carlisle in March and finishing second on his reappearance this season at Sedgefield over an inadequate 2m 3 � furlong trip. He was rated 136 over hurdles and his mark of 134 shouldn’t prove a problem over fences if he can continue his progress over this longer distance – his Grade 2 second behind Urban Hymn over hurdles suggests he’s got more to come over these larger obstacles.

However, Smith isn’t the only one with two in the race – Alan King also runs two and may have a serious contender in his other runner. ZIGA BOY has visited Doncaster twice in his career and won both times, including in the Listed Sky Bet Chase from a mark of 133. Just a seven-year-old, it’s reasonable to expect that he’s improved from that and so a mark of 137 should in no way be a barrier to a good run. Ground that is on the soft side of good is perfect for him and despite unseating after being badly hampered early on in the Becher last time out, he jumps well. His reappearance behind Valadom and Sego Success was promising in that he ran up with the pace throughout and only weakened late on, so you would expect him to have come on a lot for that run and back on this track that he clearly loves, he has to hold some decent each-way claims in a winnable race.

Advice

ZIGA BOY – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

1.15 Cheltenham – Raymond Mould Handicap Chase.

This 2m handicap chase looks a competitive enough field with a number of reliable yardsticks in the field.

The weights are headed by Nicky Henderson’s Vaniteux who proved himself a high-class novice chaser last term, winning the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster in January before unseating when looking booked for second in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival. He returned to action at Ascot a few weeks ago and despite attracting strong market support, he was a little disappointing, finishing third behind the resurgent Sire De Grugy. His jumping wasn’t too fluent in places which cost him valuable ground but that was his first run back so perhaps he just needed to get that out of his system. I suspect he will be much better with that run under his belt but he looks to have a tough task facing him to defy top weight here.

Just behind him at Ascot was Cold March who was having his first run since finishing last of five in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton. He took a little while to warm to his job but he was making ground when finding himself short of room on the turn for home and that must have cost him a place or two. He ran all the way to the line to just miss out on fourth spot and having been dropped 1lb by the handicapper on the back of that, he has to come into the reckoning.

Course and distance form can often prove valuable, especially at Cheltenham and with that in mind, we have to acknowledge Savello who won the Grand Annual here in 2014. This year’s renewal was his last try in handicap company and he ran well to finish fourth Solar Impulse. He managed to get back to winning ways the following month at Kelso before running in France on his final start of the campaign. He was unsurprisingly struggling from a long way out in the Shloer Chase last time but the drop into handicap company should help and on his best form, he is weighted to run a big race.

Paul Henderson’s Un Beau Roman managed to get his head in front on the Old Course last month and having been raised 5lb on the back of that effort, he bids to follow up that success here. He showed a fine attitude to wear down the Irish challenger Pairofbrowneyes but whether he can repeat that effort is less clear. In handicapping terms, his new mark shouldn’t be beyond him as he won off 1lb lower in January but this looks a much more competitive affair.

There are few yards going better than Colin Tizzard at present and he saddles SIZING PLATINUM here who may just have found the 2m4f trip stretching his stamina in the BetVictor Gold Cup last time. He looked to be running a nice race until the third last before weakening and this shorter test should be right up his street. It is worth remembering that he was nine lengths clear of the third when chasing home the runaway winner Fox Norton in October and he runs here off just 1lb higher. He looks to have plenty going in his favour and I fancy him to run a big race down in trip.

Of the remainder, Neil Mulholland’s Baltimore Rock makes plenty of appeal having won on his chasing debut at Doncaster last December. He hasn’t won since but he was running quite well when falling two out in the Arkle and he was just outclassed in the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Punchestown in April. He returns on a mark of 144 and having only had the four runs over fences, there could be more to come from this lightly-raced seven-year-old. His absence is the only reason he is passed over as the selection but it would be no surprise to see him run a big race on his return.

The final one to mention is Tom George’s Parsnip Pete who was just run out of it at Newbury by Ultragold a couple of weeks ago. The ten-year-old continues to run consistently well without getting his head in front but he has only been raised 1lb for his latest run. He should run his usual solid race but I suspect there may be a couple of better handicapped horses in the race.

Advice

SIZING PLATINUM – 2pts win @ 9/2 (bet365)

**bitchy** · 9 December 2016, 06:39 PM

1.30 Doncaster – Bet365 Handicap Hurdle.

This 2m handicap hurdle may have only attracted ten runners but there is plenty to consider including James Ewart’s Aristo Du Plessis who continues to fall down the weights on the back of another below-par effort at Haydock last time. He won a string of races last term but has struggled so far this term although it is possible the heavy ground and the step up in trip were not in his favour last time. A return to two miles and good ground should be more suitable and having been cut some slack by the handicapper, if he bounces back to form he would have a leading chance.

Paul Nicholls has a pretty good strike-rate when sending runners up to Doncaster and he saddles All Set To Go here who needs to bounce back from a disappointing run at Huntingdon just over a month ago. Having run a good race behind Wishfull Dreaming at Chepstow on his return, he didn’t jump very well at Huntingdon and I suspect that he is probably a bit high in the weights at present. It wasn’t that long ago that he finished second to Gwafa in the Swinton but he needs a repeat of that effort to figure here.

Alan King also saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Ardamir who was a winner over course and distance in February. His only other run over hurdles saw him pulled up in the Fred Winter next time but returning on a mark of 125, he could be open to further improvement this term. He shouldn’t lack for fitness having been campaigned on the flat through the summer and if the ground stays good, he would be of interest back over hurdles.

Another course and distance winner is Favorite Girl who was narrowly denied a winning return to hurdles at Ascot a few weeks ago. That was a fine effort from the eight-year-old who attempted to make all but just got collared in the closing stages by a progressive rival. She is effectively up 5lb here with Jack Sherwood only claiming 3lb now but she is in fine form at present and she shouldn’t be too far away.

However, the one they may all have to beat is HAWK HIGH who has run some fine races in the last couple of seasons but he has been cut some slack by the handicapper which could give him a leading chance in this contest. He is now just 3lb higher than his last winning mark and he didn’t run a bad race when ninth in the County Hurdle in March. This will be a lot less competitive than that race and his jockey Brian Hughes couldn’t be in better form at present. The key to this six-year-old is good ground which he looks likely to get on Saturday and with him also dropping down in class, I fancy him to take advantage of his reduced handicap mark.

Advice

HAWK HIGH – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)

1.50 Cheltenham – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Grade 3)

With six of the last ten winners of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup having been aged six or seven, it seems that this is the best age group to follow when searching for the winner. They have just over half of the field this time around including the likes of Kylemore Lough, Quite By Chance, Aso and Thomas Brown.

Given the competitive nature of this race, it is little surprise that it is best to side with horses arriving here in good form. In fact, nine of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their most recent start. Of this year’s field eight failed to make the frame last time leaving Bouvreuil and Aso with something to prove, despite their popularity in the betting market.

Race fitness is also something that has served previous winners well in recent years with only two of the last ten winners having not had at least two runs during the season. There are nine of this year’s line-up who fail to make the mark here, including most of those towards the head of the betting.

Given the undulating nature of the racecourse at Cheltenham, it seems sensible to think that some horses may not be suited by it. Therefore previous Cheltenham form can prove useful as shown by the pattern that eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their previous visits to Prestbury Park. Perhaps surprisingly only six of this year’s field can boast such credentials, those six being Village Vic, Buywise, Module, King’s Odyssey, Bouvreuil and Solar Impulse.

If we narrow the focus on Cheltenham further, we can see that half of the winners in the last decade of this race had taken part in the BetVictor Gold Cup over course and distance. There are five such participants in this year’s renewal, Village Vic (2nd), Buywise (3rd), Aso (4th), Bouvreuil (5th) and Frodon (10th) who will all be hoping to continue this trend with another set of bold displays here.

In terms of weight, 10st 7lb appears to be the benchmark as seven of the last ten winners had carried at least that weight to victory. This eliminates the bottom horse on the racecard, Nicky Henderson’s Full Shift.

The final trend worth a mention is that surrounding the betting and it is not a good sign for favourite backers as this race has been something of a graveyard for market leaders. Only one of the last ten winners was sent off favourite and although the market is still open to change, it is not ideal for the current favourite Bouvreuil .

Shortlist

BUYWISE –6/7

Village Vic – 5/7

Quite By Chance – 5/7

Conclusion

With all of our horses missing at least one of the seven trends, the standout performer is BUYWISE whose only negative is that at the age of nine, he falls foul of the age trend. Other than that he looks to have plenty going in his favour, having run a fine race when third in the BetVictor Gold Cup last month. That was the third time he had finished close up in that race but he just seems to get too far back before running on. Connections will no doubt be hoping that the fitting of a visor for the first-time helps him to travel more fluently. If that is the case then he looks to have a lot going for him and he rates a strong chance.

Just missing out on the top spot is last year’s winner Village Vic who carried a big weight when being collared close home by Taquin Du Seuil in the BetVictor Gold Cup. That came off a mark of 155 and although he finds himself 3lb higher here he has to be considered given his excellent record at the course. He too misses the age trend given he is now nine and with last month’s race having been his first run of the season, he falls short in the two runs department. Having said that he clearly goes well fresh and it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up twelve months on from last year’s victory.

The final member of the shortlist is Quite By Chance who landed a big pot at the end of October for the in-form Colin Tizzard yard. The seven-year-old doesn’t have any form of note around Cheltenham to date but he turned in a career best when chasing home Sire De Grugy a couple of weeks ago and he deserves a crack at something like this. He has won over as far as 3m in the past so the step up in trip shouldn’t hold any fears for him and with the yard continuing to fire in the winners, he makes some appeal at a slightly bigger price.

Advice

BUYWISE – 0.5pt e/w @ 11/1 (bet365, BetVictor)

2.25 Cheltenham – The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race (Registered as The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2)

Perennially a cracking event, the Bristol has a roll of honour including Albert Bartlett winner Unowhatimeanharry, RSA winner Blaklion and Gold Cup winner Coneygree in the last five years. It remains to be seen whether anything of that class is lining up in this year’s renewal but it still looks a most intriguing contest to try and decipher.

Ami Desbois was pitched into some fairly hot company last term and ultimately struggled at this kind of level. He has returned looking like a different horse though and produced a particularly pleasing performance when striking in a Haydock handicap on his latest outing. He is probably more suited to the handicapping sphere at present and looks to have a tough job on his hands back in novice company.

Previous Cheltenham experience has been a good pointer in recent times and especially those heading here on the back of decent efforts in the Grade 2 Hyde Novices’ Hurdle at the Open Meeting. That particular contest is doubly represented this time round by the second and third who look pretty well matched on the form of their two previous runs. Wholestone narrowly holds the edge having defeated West Approach both times and the five-year-old should certainly appreciate the step back up in trip here. He has progressed well since returning in the autumn and boasts the strongest from in the book. As has been proven on their last couple of run-ins though, Tizzard’s charge won’t be far behind but he may just need to pull out a bit extra than he has shown so far and was only a well beaten third in this twelve months ago.

With the field looking so closely matched, those receiving weight gain a bit of an advantage and with that in mind, the selection is NO HASSLE HOFF. The four-year-old escapes a penalty for his win in a Class 5 maiden hurdle at Hereford last month in which he came home with tons in hand. The line-up looked a fairly decent one for a race of its type but he proved to be a class apart as he powered into the lead three out and cruised clear in facile fashion. In truth, he was a winner without a penalty having tipped up at the last when leading by a country mile at Fontwell on his Rules debut but he was still fairly easy to back at Hereford before proving the market badly wrong. This is by far the biggest test he’s faced so far but he looks to be a proper horse and has a great chance if coping with a slightly drier surface than he’s used to.

Fellow penalty escapee Impulsive Star could prove the biggest threat on the back of his win in a Fontwell maiden hurdle. The Irish point winner was snapped up by Robert Waley-Cohen on the back of a good staying effort in a bumper for Caroline O’Brien and duly obliged on his first run on these shores for Neil Mulholland in similar fashion. The step up to three miles will suit him down to the ground and although a step up is required, his attitude so far has hinted that he could well be up to this sort of level.

Anchor Man is the least exposed runner in the field having had just one start in points before making a winning debut for Paul Nicholls at Exeter a month ago. Granted, the form of that run seems to be nothing special but it was the manner in which he put the race two out that was rather impressive and he must come into consideration for all this looks a tough little race.

Advice

NO HASSLE HOFF – 1pt win @ 9/2 (bet365)

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