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12.20 Sandown – Barry Rawlings “What A Year” “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle.
Ten go to post for this novices’ hurdle, but there’s a few that look like deadwood straight away and it’s difficult to make much of a case for anything outside the first 5 in racecard order.
Dashing Oscar carries a penalty for his win at Bangor three weeks ago, which turned out to be a very comfortable win after his stablemate Drumcliff disappointed. Harry Fry’s six-year-old ended up a 13-length winner, but the form of the race doesn’t look very strong and it’s questionable what he achieved, even though it was a nice start to life over hurdles. The penalty may make life a little too difficult for him here, especially amongst some useful and promising rivals.
Also a last-time-out winner, American Gigolo represents Charlie Mann and makes his debut over hurdles having comfortably taken a Wincanton bumper a month ago, defeating a well-fancied Nicholls runner in the process. He’ll enjoy the decent ground that he’ll get here and runs over hurdles rather than try to defy a penalty in a bumper, so doesn’t get hit in the weights. He’ll be relatively unfancied here due to his lesser-known connections and stable, but this relative of Daneking should go well if he takes to obstacles.
Gary Moore targets this meeting year after year and has Crystal Lad to represent him here. His second over C&D behind Khezerabad last month is decent form, especially given he had Alan King’s Azzerti in behind, and you’d think he’d try to put his experience to good use from the front. This ex-pointer will probably need further in time though and may lack the turn of foot to deal with a couple of his rivals here, even though he’s likely to show up very well for a long way.
The two that look as if they’ll have the race between them were both very impressive bumper winners on their last starts and Tom George’s Cruiseaweigh definitely looks like one to keep the right side of. A close second behind the very useful Movewiththetimes on his debut at Wincanton, this five-year-old then stepped up to beat a decent-looking field at Aintree, including Elgin, who went on to boost the form considerably when taking care of Malcolm Jefferson’s useful Dubai Angel in a maiden hurdle at Newcastle last weekend. The five-year-old by Oscar has a lovely pedigree, being out of an Anshan mare from a family of some smart staying chasers, but it does also indicate that he might just need further than this – his trainer, George, spoke of how he’d be looking for a ‘galloping track’ for his hurdle debut over two miles, so despite looking a very useful prospect indeed, he might be tapped for toe by the remaining runner.
Nicky Henderson always does well in decent novice hurdles at this time of year, but his record in this race is staggering. He has trained the winner in each and every of the last seven renewals of this race, so his entry, BARDD, has to be treated with the utmost respect. Caracci Apache, Vaniteux, Tetlami, Master Of The Hall and Clay Hollister all won this race on their hurdling debuts and this four-year-old son of Dylan Thomas could well be the next in line. He has shown significant greenness on his first two runs in bumpers, firstly in finishing second to Laval Noir at Huntingdon when looking as if he was in front too long, and then when winning here at Sandown Park. He defeated Warren Greatrex’s well-backed Potters Approach that day despite being carried left over a furlong out in a slowly-run race and running green when hitting the front, but what was striking was the way he stretched clear when Jeremiah McGrath got him organised. If the penny is dropping and he finds obstacles concentrate him better, he could keep improving at a rate of knots. Among a few types that will ideally want a bit further, I think he’ll track the leaders for most of the race before unleashing his potent turn of foot late on to devastating effect.
Advice
BARDD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
12.30 Aintree – Betfred Watch Sky Sports In Our Shops Handicap Chase.
The switch to fences on good ground resulted in a transformation in form for Dan Skelton’s OLDGRANGEWOOD, and he looks to hold strong claims to make it two from two in his new discipline. During his hurdling career the Skelton’s were always open that this horse was always a chaser for the future, and that they’d look after him over hurdles. That resulted in him running off a mark of 120 at Kempton last time and he duly obliged with any amount in hand. Also, after winning on him at Ayr last season Harry Skelton said ‘he hated the (soft) ground’ and his most recent win was the first time he’d encountered officially good ground since his Irish Point-to-Point win, so he is clearly more at home on a sounder surface. The forecast ground on the Mildmay course at Aintree this weekend is good, good to soft in places, so conditions should be perfect for the son of Central Park. The five-year-old did show a tendency to jump left-handed so it’s no surprise connections have opted to send this horse the other way round, another positive for his chances here. However, there are some question marks, mainly the 10lb higher mark he has to contend with in a better race, but visually he was very impressive at Kempton and he looked as if an extra 10lb wouldn’t have made any difference. The second concern is that this is only his second start over fences (under Rules) and his chasing debut came in a small field, but as touched on before, he is a Point-to-Point winner and is very much a chaser on looks. Overall I think he is the most intriguing horse in the line-up and he’s completely unexposed, so it would be a huge disappointment if he wasn’t bang there fighting out the finish.
The obvious danger is Cernunnos for the in-form Tom George stable. He’s slipping down the weights and becoming well-handicapped. He shaped like he was coming back to form at Wincanton last time out, however, that came over an extended 3m2f at Wincanton and the drop in trip looks a strange one to me. He’s also only won one of his 11 starts in Britain, despite consistently being strong in the market. He certainly has the ability to pop up at some stage but he doesn’t represent a viable betting proposition at present.
The Fresh Prince is another contender for the 2015 Grand National winning connections and he could easily put his seasonal debut well and truly behind him. The yard are in much better form than they were in the earlier weeks of the season – 9 of the 12 runners in the past fortnight have finished in the first three – and this son of Robin Des Pres cannot be overlooked easily. Like the selection he is an Irish Point-to-Point winner whose future was always going to lie over fences and a rating of 118 could easily underestimate him. However, my main concern with him is the ground as his Point and Hurdle wins both came on soft ground.
Other than the three I’ve touched on I find it hard to recommend any of the others runners. Baileys Concerto is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but recent performances suggest he may need the handicapper to relent a little further before the 10-year-old can be competitive in a race of this nature. Whilst in contrast Formidableopponent, Ballycoe, Cusheen Bridge and Somchine have all being running well recently but now look in the hands of the handicapper as a result.
Advice
OLDGRANGEWOOD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, BetVictor)
1.00 Aintree – Betfred “Happy 50th John Mckenna” Novices´ Hurdle.
This 2m1f contest often throws up a nice horse with Ballybolley and Agrapart having taken the last two renewals and although we don’t have much to go on, this year’s race also looks to have its fair share of quality.
There are two members of the field who already have a victory over hurdles to their name, the first of which is Good Tradition, who has his first start for the Donald McCain yard. Formerly trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld, the five-year-old quickened up smartly to win a maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan in August, after which he was purchased for £13,000 at the sales. His victory came at the fourth attempt over obstacles so he might be open to less improvement than some of his rivals, although Harry Stock takes a useful 7lb off his back.
The only other winner in the race is CHARLEMAR who made a promising start to life over hurdles when winning at Chepstow at the beginning of last month. Harry Whittington has made big strides in a short space of time with a license and this French bumper winner was bought to replace Arzal, who had performed so well for the yard before getting injured last year. He jumped well on the whole on his first start over hurdles especially the last couple when they were really racing and he should have a good chance of defying a penalty. The form of his race has worked out pretty well with the third Criq Rock going close next time and I think his experience could make all the difference here.
However, there are a number of other interesting candidates, most notably Minotaur who has his first start for Jonjo O’Neill on Saturday. The four-year-old had a fine campaign on the flat this term winning four times including a comfortable four length success in a Listed contest on his final start in September. He fetched a whopping 340,000 euros when he went through the sale ring in October and clearly big things are expected of him in this new discipline. I expect he will attract market support and could well go off favourite but with that in mind I would prefer to be on the one with experience and hence I have chosen Charlemar.
Ian Williams’ yard is in fine form at present and he saddles Banditry who shaped with some promise when fifth behind the smart Thomas Campbell at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He won his last two starts on the flat in October but was given plenty to do on his hurdling debut a couple of weeks ago and he made good late headway under Tom Scudamore. He should be a lot wiser for that outing and it would be no surprise to see him take a big step forward here.
The final one to mention is Dan Skelton’s Atlantic Storm who was unfancied on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon and having been ridden patiently, he weakened late on to finish sixth. He is a half-brother to the smart Tagrita and I’m sure better is expected of him going forward so despite his below-par showing last time, we should learn more about him here.
Advice
CHARLEMAR – 1pt win @ 3/1(bet365, BetVictor)
Ten go to post for this novices’ hurdle, but there’s a few that look like deadwood straight away and it’s difficult to make much of a case for anything outside the first 5 in racecard order.
Dashing Oscar carries a penalty for his win at Bangor three weeks ago, which turned out to be a very comfortable win after his stablemate Drumcliff disappointed. Harry Fry’s six-year-old ended up a 13-length winner, but the form of the race doesn’t look very strong and it’s questionable what he achieved, even though it was a nice start to life over hurdles. The penalty may make life a little too difficult for him here, especially amongst some useful and promising rivals.
Also a last-time-out winner, American Gigolo represents Charlie Mann and makes his debut over hurdles having comfortably taken a Wincanton bumper a month ago, defeating a well-fancied Nicholls runner in the process. He’ll enjoy the decent ground that he’ll get here and runs over hurdles rather than try to defy a penalty in a bumper, so doesn’t get hit in the weights. He’ll be relatively unfancied here due to his lesser-known connections and stable, but this relative of Daneking should go well if he takes to obstacles.
Gary Moore targets this meeting year after year and has Crystal Lad to represent him here. His second over C&D behind Khezerabad last month is decent form, especially given he had Alan King’s Azzerti in behind, and you’d think he’d try to put his experience to good use from the front. This ex-pointer will probably need further in time though and may lack the turn of foot to deal with a couple of his rivals here, even though he’s likely to show up very well for a long way.
The two that look as if they’ll have the race between them were both very impressive bumper winners on their last starts and Tom George’s Cruiseaweigh definitely looks like one to keep the right side of. A close second behind the very useful Movewiththetimes on his debut at Wincanton, this five-year-old then stepped up to beat a decent-looking field at Aintree, including Elgin, who went on to boost the form considerably when taking care of Malcolm Jefferson’s useful Dubai Angel in a maiden hurdle at Newcastle last weekend. The five-year-old by Oscar has a lovely pedigree, being out of an Anshan mare from a family of some smart staying chasers, but it does also indicate that he might just need further than this – his trainer, George, spoke of how he’d be looking for a ‘galloping track’ for his hurdle debut over two miles, so despite looking a very useful prospect indeed, he might be tapped for toe by the remaining runner.
Nicky Henderson always does well in decent novice hurdles at this time of year, but his record in this race is staggering. He has trained the winner in each and every of the last seven renewals of this race, so his entry, BARDD, has to be treated with the utmost respect. Caracci Apache, Vaniteux, Tetlami, Master Of The Hall and Clay Hollister all won this race on their hurdling debuts and this four-year-old son of Dylan Thomas could well be the next in line. He has shown significant greenness on his first two runs in bumpers, firstly in finishing second to Laval Noir at Huntingdon when looking as if he was in front too long, and then when winning here at Sandown Park. He defeated Warren Greatrex’s well-backed Potters Approach that day despite being carried left over a furlong out in a slowly-run race and running green when hitting the front, but what was striking was the way he stretched clear when Jeremiah McGrath got him organised. If the penny is dropping and he finds obstacles concentrate him better, he could keep improving at a rate of knots. Among a few types that will ideally want a bit further, I think he’ll track the leaders for most of the race before unleashing his potent turn of foot late on to devastating effect.
Advice
BARDD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
12.30 Aintree – Betfred Watch Sky Sports In Our Shops Handicap Chase.
The switch to fences on good ground resulted in a transformation in form for Dan Skelton’s OLDGRANGEWOOD, and he looks to hold strong claims to make it two from two in his new discipline. During his hurdling career the Skelton’s were always open that this horse was always a chaser for the future, and that they’d look after him over hurdles. That resulted in him running off a mark of 120 at Kempton last time and he duly obliged with any amount in hand. Also, after winning on him at Ayr last season Harry Skelton said ‘he hated the (soft) ground’ and his most recent win was the first time he’d encountered officially good ground since his Irish Point-to-Point win, so he is clearly more at home on a sounder surface. The forecast ground on the Mildmay course at Aintree this weekend is good, good to soft in places, so conditions should be perfect for the son of Central Park. The five-year-old did show a tendency to jump left-handed so it’s no surprise connections have opted to send this horse the other way round, another positive for his chances here. However, there are some question marks, mainly the 10lb higher mark he has to contend with in a better race, but visually he was very impressive at Kempton and he looked as if an extra 10lb wouldn’t have made any difference. The second concern is that this is only his second start over fences (under Rules) and his chasing debut came in a small field, but as touched on before, he is a Point-to-Point winner and is very much a chaser on looks. Overall I think he is the most intriguing horse in the line-up and he’s completely unexposed, so it would be a huge disappointment if he wasn’t bang there fighting out the finish.
The obvious danger is Cernunnos for the in-form Tom George stable. He’s slipping down the weights and becoming well-handicapped. He shaped like he was coming back to form at Wincanton last time out, however, that came over an extended 3m2f at Wincanton and the drop in trip looks a strange one to me. He’s also only won one of his 11 starts in Britain, despite consistently being strong in the market. He certainly has the ability to pop up at some stage but he doesn’t represent a viable betting proposition at present.
The Fresh Prince is another contender for the 2015 Grand National winning connections and he could easily put his seasonal debut well and truly behind him. The yard are in much better form than they were in the earlier weeks of the season – 9 of the 12 runners in the past fortnight have finished in the first three – and this son of Robin Des Pres cannot be overlooked easily. Like the selection he is an Irish Point-to-Point winner whose future was always going to lie over fences and a rating of 118 could easily underestimate him. However, my main concern with him is the ground as his Point and Hurdle wins both came on soft ground.
Other than the three I’ve touched on I find it hard to recommend any of the others runners. Baileys Concerto is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but recent performances suggest he may need the handicapper to relent a little further before the 10-year-old can be competitive in a race of this nature. Whilst in contrast Formidableopponent, Ballycoe, Cusheen Bridge and Somchine have all being running well recently but now look in the hands of the handicapper as a result.
Advice
OLDGRANGEWOOD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, BetVictor)
1.00 Aintree – Betfred “Happy 50th John Mckenna” Novices´ Hurdle.
This 2m1f contest often throws up a nice horse with Ballybolley and Agrapart having taken the last two renewals and although we don’t have much to go on, this year’s race also looks to have its fair share of quality.
There are two members of the field who already have a victory over hurdles to their name, the first of which is Good Tradition, who has his first start for the Donald McCain yard. Formerly trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld, the five-year-old quickened up smartly to win a maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan in August, after which he was purchased for £13,000 at the sales. His victory came at the fourth attempt over obstacles so he might be open to less improvement than some of his rivals, although Harry Stock takes a useful 7lb off his back.
The only other winner in the race is CHARLEMAR who made a promising start to life over hurdles when winning at Chepstow at the beginning of last month. Harry Whittington has made big strides in a short space of time with a license and this French bumper winner was bought to replace Arzal, who had performed so well for the yard before getting injured last year. He jumped well on the whole on his first start over hurdles especially the last couple when they were really racing and he should have a good chance of defying a penalty. The form of his race has worked out pretty well with the third Criq Rock going close next time and I think his experience could make all the difference here.
However, there are a number of other interesting candidates, most notably Minotaur who has his first start for Jonjo O’Neill on Saturday. The four-year-old had a fine campaign on the flat this term winning four times including a comfortable four length success in a Listed contest on his final start in September. He fetched a whopping 340,000 euros when he went through the sale ring in October and clearly big things are expected of him in this new discipline. I expect he will attract market support and could well go off favourite but with that in mind I would prefer to be on the one with experience and hence I have chosen Charlemar.
Ian Williams’ yard is in fine form at present and he saddles Banditry who shaped with some promise when fifth behind the smart Thomas Campbell at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He won his last two starts on the flat in October but was given plenty to do on his hurdling debut a couple of weeks ago and he made good late headway under Tom Scudamore. He should be a lot wiser for that outing and it would be no surprise to see him take a big step forward here.
The final one to mention is Dan Skelton’s Atlantic Storm who was unfancied on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon and having been ridden patiently, he weakened late on to finish sixth. He is a half-brother to the smart Tagrita and I’m sure better is expected of him going forward so despite his below-par showing last time, we should learn more about him here.
Advice
CHARLEMAR – 1pt win @ 3/1(bet365, BetVictor)
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