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1.30 Newbury – Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase.
This 2m6f looks a competitive one with a number of contenders coming in here in top form. The weights are headed by Evan Williams’ On Tour who finished last season by finishing eighth behind Ballyalton at the Cheltenham Festival. He didn’t look particularly well handicapped on that occasion but he turned in a fine effort on his return at Aintree earlier this month, chasing home Thomas Brown. He is entitled to improve for that initial outing and with the Williams yard in better form at present, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up once again here.
There aren’t many yards who have had more winners than Colin Tizzard in the last month and he saddles Gentleman John here. The eight-year-old has been on the go through the summer but he has found his best form in recent weeks, winning at Wincanton at the end of October before following up at the same venue a couple of weeks later. He was perhaps a little fortunate that Southfield Theatre came down at the last on the most recent of those runs but has still been raised 6lb by the handicapper. That could make life more difficult for him here and he is passed over as a result.
Gary Moore is always a man whose runners deserve a second look, especially in handicap company and there will be few easier winners at Ascot than Antony who turned his latest race into a precession when winning at the end of last month. That was the six-year-old’s second win in quick succession and he is clearly improving rapidly but it will be interesting to see how he fares with another 8lb on his back. One thing I noticed last time was his tendency to jump left which suggests that Newbury should suit him better and I find it hard to see him finishing out of the frame.
One of the more interesting runners in the field is IN THE ROUGH who has taken a while to get the hang of chasing but got off the mark in good style at Uttoxeter back in September. He was pitched into handicap company at Carlisle next time and travelled well for much of the way under Barry Geraghty but just seemed to be outstayed by his two rivals. That was over 3m2f so it is no surprise that connections have opted to drop him back in trip for this assignment. The Jonjo O’Neill stable is starting to fire out the odd winner and I suspect that this test will suit the unexposed seven-year-old. He also looks likely to run in the colours of Sir Peter O’Sullevan on Saturday, now in the possession of JP McManus and I fancy him to run a big race dropped back in trip.
Another interesting contender is Waldorf Salad who turned in some fine efforts from the front as a novice last term. He found the 4m National Hunt Chase stretching his stamina in March but he finished the season in style, winning off a mark of 131 at Chepstow in April. He races off just 4lb higher here and with Charlie Deutsch likely to make a bold bid from the front, you wouldn’t want to give this strong stayer too much rope back in trip.
Of the remainder, Charlie Longsdon’s Tjongejonge was a ready winner on his return to action at Market Rasen and despite going up 12lb, he could be open to further improvement. Whilst Warriors Tale’s run was too bad to be true last time and he could easily bounce back for the Paul Nicholls stable.
Advice
IN THE ROUGH – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)
1.55 Doncaster – Hennessy Betting at 188BET Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)
An interesting looking Novices’ Handicap Chase in which I’m willing to take a chance on SHANROE SANTOS each-way with just the nine runners. Thought highly enough of by connections to take his chance in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in 2015 his future has always looked to lie over the larger obstacles and he should be capable of winning races off his current handicap mark of 128. His well-being has to be taken on trust having been off the track since pulling up at Ayr 589 days ago, but he achieved a rating of 135 over hurdles so should be competitive here if fit and well. The yard has also been going well from a select number of runners, sending out two winners from eight runners in the past fortnight. This son of Definite Article also won first time out for connections which bodes well, albeit that came at a much lower level. Another positive is that he was a comfortable winner of an Irish Point-to-Point before joining Lucy Wadham for £50,000 so I’m hopeful jumping won’t be too much of an issue and could be over-priced at 25/1.
There are plenty of others who look to hold strong claims, including four last time out chase winners, Veins Chercher being the most appealing of those for the Brian Ellison yard. He turned over the smart hurdler Blue Heron on his UK chasing debut, which looked impressive at the time. However, the runner-up was said to have needed the run after a long lay-off and has subsequently disappointed since, giving the impression he’s not the horse he once was. On that basis I think Ellison’s charge could be have been slightly flattered and will probably require a better performance to take this.
Drumlee Lad won by 17-lengths on his chasing debut and whilst he probably would have won had his nearest pursuer not fallen at the last, a mark of 121 seems pretty high given his hurdles mark is 113. I’dliketheoption is another last time out winner and represents powerful connections but he hasn’t looked the most natural chaser, so I’m willing to take him on.
Cusheen Bridge is a consistent sort and won off 125 at Market Rasen nine days ago, but after seven chase starts I’d suggest he was vulnerable to something less exposed here. On that note both Gold Present and Bigpipenotobacee have to be closely monitored in the betting for the Henderson and George yards respectively. The former lost his way over hurdles in the spring but is well-bred and has to be respected, especially if the market speaks in his favour. Whilst the latter has yet to win a race, he was going well when bought down at the second last in his final start between the flags and is one to watch, but he may be one for another day.
Fionn Mac Cul is the final contender I must touch on for Venetia Williams. He won two of his four starts over hurdles and like many of the yard’s horses, will come into their own over fences. However, I’m going to swerve the son of Oscar here as the stable are yet to hit full gear (six of the seven favourites or joint-favourites the yard have run in the last fortnight have been beaten), and both of his wins have come on heavy ground.
Advice
SHANROE SANTOS – 0.5pt each-way @ 25/1 (Betfair)
2.05 Newbury – bet365 Handicap Hurdle.
With a varied and diverse mix of contenders, this race looks a decent contest with everything from four-year-old handicap debutants to ten-year-old stalwarts in this kind of company.
Gibralfaro sits in the aforementioned category and makes his open handicap debut after finishing 15 lengths behind Sceau Royal at Cheltenham and just beaten by two and a half lengths in a four-year-old handicap at Chepstow to start his season. Both of those races were over two miles and both performances seemed to suggest that this step up in trip to two and a half would suit quite nicely. He’s got plenty of ability and his handler, Alan King, is always adept at placing horses in the right place, but he wilted in the Triumph Hurdle in March and he does have quite a high mark for his introduction to this more experienced company.
Another four-year-old who’s an interesting entrant is Favorito Buck’s for Paul Nicholls. A comprehensive Listed three-year-old hurdle winner on his only start in France, he failed to show his ability when pulled up in a Juvenile Hurdle won by Gibralfaro at Kempton last December and was then well-beaten at Newbury in March in a modest-looking Juvenile Hurdle. The horse will have strengthened up this summer and we could see a totally different animal here, but even though he went off a well-backed favourite for both of those disappointing runs and more was clearly expected, he’s not really a backable proposition until he shows something better, especially off a very harsh looking mark of 137.
At the other end of the scale, Gassin Golf has plenty of experience in this type of race, running more than creditably on more than a few occasions. He finished second in the Imperial Cup of 2014, second in a Punchestown Novice Hurdle won by the high-class Arctic Fire, third in the 2015 Imperial Cup off a mark of 132 and won a valuable Handicap Hurdle here over two miles off the same mark as today, 135. Clearly, Kerry Lee’s charge is a horse that looks set to run his usual game race, but this step up in trip is a worry. His record over more than two miles reads: PU 3 5 3 PU, so he might be best watched until he returns to two miles.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Robinshill is in some excellent form at the moment, winning both of his runs this season in the style of a very well-handicapped horse. His last win, at Huntingdon, can be marked up further considering he was outpaced and then ran on well, despite hanging, to pick up a useful-looking Dan Skelton inmate in the closing stages. The penny is starting to drop with this son of Robin Des Champs and off just 5lb higher than for that win, he has to go down as a big threat. The trip is an unknown but his breeding and run style suggests he should be fine with it, but a bigger concern would be the ground if it stayed on the soft side. Both of his wins came on good ground and there might just be some stouter stayers over this trip on ground with a little juice in it.
Battle Born is an intriguing contender – off the track for 772 days, he was an exciting novice when last seen, hacking up on his hurdling debut at Uttoxeter with the likes of Champagne At Tara 12 lengths in arrears. That horse is rated 135 over hurdles now, so if Charlie Longsdon’s charge retains all of his ability after such a long time off, his mark of 126 here will be woefully inadequate. However, it’s much more likely that this will serve as a fact-finding mission for Longsdon and I doubt that the horse will be subject to any harsh treatment in the closing stages if (and when) he gets tired, so while he might be best watched here, keeping him in the notebook for the future could well pay off handsomely if he’s anywhere near the animal he was two years ago.
Another who could be nicely handicapped is the Philip Hobbs-trained Onefitzall, who ran on promisingly at the end of a two and a half mile handicap hurdle at Carlisle behind the smart Definitly Red. His jumping could do with some brushing up and he’ll probably relish three miles and a fence later on in his career, but a mark of 133 certainly looks a workable one for the time being. The Indian Danehill gelding has plenty more progress to come and shouldn’t be ruled out, but there’s another with plenty of ability and improvement to come that I can’t overlook.
Dan Skelton’s BORN SURVIVOR was well-fancied in the market for last week’s Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock before he was taken out at declarations. Although it seemed the logical race for this embryonic chaser to go for, it now seems a good move after the race was run in some extremely energy-sapping conditions and could have made the horse leave his season there. This is an easier task, despite having to carry 11st 11lb from a mark of 141, and with the track, trip and ground looking as if they’ll be perfect for him; he’s a rock-solid contender. His seasonal reappearance behind a handicap blot in Massini’s Trap was more than satisfactory and given the way that Skelton’s runners have been coming on plenty for a run this year, a 2lb higher mark should be no problem at all. The King’s Theatre gelding is hugely well thought of, especially when it comes to going chasing next season, so in a weaker race than his last run at Aintree, he should be very hard to beat.
Advice
BORN SURVIVOR – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
This 2m6f looks a competitive one with a number of contenders coming in here in top form. The weights are headed by Evan Williams’ On Tour who finished last season by finishing eighth behind Ballyalton at the Cheltenham Festival. He didn’t look particularly well handicapped on that occasion but he turned in a fine effort on his return at Aintree earlier this month, chasing home Thomas Brown. He is entitled to improve for that initial outing and with the Williams yard in better form at present, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up once again here.
There aren’t many yards who have had more winners than Colin Tizzard in the last month and he saddles Gentleman John here. The eight-year-old has been on the go through the summer but he has found his best form in recent weeks, winning at Wincanton at the end of October before following up at the same venue a couple of weeks later. He was perhaps a little fortunate that Southfield Theatre came down at the last on the most recent of those runs but has still been raised 6lb by the handicapper. That could make life more difficult for him here and he is passed over as a result.
Gary Moore is always a man whose runners deserve a second look, especially in handicap company and there will be few easier winners at Ascot than Antony who turned his latest race into a precession when winning at the end of last month. That was the six-year-old’s second win in quick succession and he is clearly improving rapidly but it will be interesting to see how he fares with another 8lb on his back. One thing I noticed last time was his tendency to jump left which suggests that Newbury should suit him better and I find it hard to see him finishing out of the frame.
One of the more interesting runners in the field is IN THE ROUGH who has taken a while to get the hang of chasing but got off the mark in good style at Uttoxeter back in September. He was pitched into handicap company at Carlisle next time and travelled well for much of the way under Barry Geraghty but just seemed to be outstayed by his two rivals. That was over 3m2f so it is no surprise that connections have opted to drop him back in trip for this assignment. The Jonjo O’Neill stable is starting to fire out the odd winner and I suspect that this test will suit the unexposed seven-year-old. He also looks likely to run in the colours of Sir Peter O’Sullevan on Saturday, now in the possession of JP McManus and I fancy him to run a big race dropped back in trip.
Another interesting contender is Waldorf Salad who turned in some fine efforts from the front as a novice last term. He found the 4m National Hunt Chase stretching his stamina in March but he finished the season in style, winning off a mark of 131 at Chepstow in April. He races off just 4lb higher here and with Charlie Deutsch likely to make a bold bid from the front, you wouldn’t want to give this strong stayer too much rope back in trip.
Of the remainder, Charlie Longsdon’s Tjongejonge was a ready winner on his return to action at Market Rasen and despite going up 12lb, he could be open to further improvement. Whilst Warriors Tale’s run was too bad to be true last time and he could easily bounce back for the Paul Nicholls stable.
Advice
IN THE ROUGH – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)
1.55 Doncaster – Hennessy Betting at 188BET Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)
An interesting looking Novices’ Handicap Chase in which I’m willing to take a chance on SHANROE SANTOS each-way with just the nine runners. Thought highly enough of by connections to take his chance in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in 2015 his future has always looked to lie over the larger obstacles and he should be capable of winning races off his current handicap mark of 128. His well-being has to be taken on trust having been off the track since pulling up at Ayr 589 days ago, but he achieved a rating of 135 over hurdles so should be competitive here if fit and well. The yard has also been going well from a select number of runners, sending out two winners from eight runners in the past fortnight. This son of Definite Article also won first time out for connections which bodes well, albeit that came at a much lower level. Another positive is that he was a comfortable winner of an Irish Point-to-Point before joining Lucy Wadham for £50,000 so I’m hopeful jumping won’t be too much of an issue and could be over-priced at 25/1.
There are plenty of others who look to hold strong claims, including four last time out chase winners, Veins Chercher being the most appealing of those for the Brian Ellison yard. He turned over the smart hurdler Blue Heron on his UK chasing debut, which looked impressive at the time. However, the runner-up was said to have needed the run after a long lay-off and has subsequently disappointed since, giving the impression he’s not the horse he once was. On that basis I think Ellison’s charge could be have been slightly flattered and will probably require a better performance to take this.
Drumlee Lad won by 17-lengths on his chasing debut and whilst he probably would have won had his nearest pursuer not fallen at the last, a mark of 121 seems pretty high given his hurdles mark is 113. I’dliketheoption is another last time out winner and represents powerful connections but he hasn’t looked the most natural chaser, so I’m willing to take him on.
Cusheen Bridge is a consistent sort and won off 125 at Market Rasen nine days ago, but after seven chase starts I’d suggest he was vulnerable to something less exposed here. On that note both Gold Present and Bigpipenotobacee have to be closely monitored in the betting for the Henderson and George yards respectively. The former lost his way over hurdles in the spring but is well-bred and has to be respected, especially if the market speaks in his favour. Whilst the latter has yet to win a race, he was going well when bought down at the second last in his final start between the flags and is one to watch, but he may be one for another day.
Fionn Mac Cul is the final contender I must touch on for Venetia Williams. He won two of his four starts over hurdles and like many of the yard’s horses, will come into their own over fences. However, I’m going to swerve the son of Oscar here as the stable are yet to hit full gear (six of the seven favourites or joint-favourites the yard have run in the last fortnight have been beaten), and both of his wins have come on heavy ground.
Advice
SHANROE SANTOS – 0.5pt each-way @ 25/1 (Betfair)
2.05 Newbury – bet365 Handicap Hurdle.
With a varied and diverse mix of contenders, this race looks a decent contest with everything from four-year-old handicap debutants to ten-year-old stalwarts in this kind of company.
Gibralfaro sits in the aforementioned category and makes his open handicap debut after finishing 15 lengths behind Sceau Royal at Cheltenham and just beaten by two and a half lengths in a four-year-old handicap at Chepstow to start his season. Both of those races were over two miles and both performances seemed to suggest that this step up in trip to two and a half would suit quite nicely. He’s got plenty of ability and his handler, Alan King, is always adept at placing horses in the right place, but he wilted in the Triumph Hurdle in March and he does have quite a high mark for his introduction to this more experienced company.
Another four-year-old who’s an interesting entrant is Favorito Buck’s for Paul Nicholls. A comprehensive Listed three-year-old hurdle winner on his only start in France, he failed to show his ability when pulled up in a Juvenile Hurdle won by Gibralfaro at Kempton last December and was then well-beaten at Newbury in March in a modest-looking Juvenile Hurdle. The horse will have strengthened up this summer and we could see a totally different animal here, but even though he went off a well-backed favourite for both of those disappointing runs and more was clearly expected, he’s not really a backable proposition until he shows something better, especially off a very harsh looking mark of 137.
At the other end of the scale, Gassin Golf has plenty of experience in this type of race, running more than creditably on more than a few occasions. He finished second in the Imperial Cup of 2014, second in a Punchestown Novice Hurdle won by the high-class Arctic Fire, third in the 2015 Imperial Cup off a mark of 132 and won a valuable Handicap Hurdle here over two miles off the same mark as today, 135. Clearly, Kerry Lee’s charge is a horse that looks set to run his usual game race, but this step up in trip is a worry. His record over more than two miles reads: PU 3 5 3 PU, so he might be best watched until he returns to two miles.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Robinshill is in some excellent form at the moment, winning both of his runs this season in the style of a very well-handicapped horse. His last win, at Huntingdon, can be marked up further considering he was outpaced and then ran on well, despite hanging, to pick up a useful-looking Dan Skelton inmate in the closing stages. The penny is starting to drop with this son of Robin Des Champs and off just 5lb higher than for that win, he has to go down as a big threat. The trip is an unknown but his breeding and run style suggests he should be fine with it, but a bigger concern would be the ground if it stayed on the soft side. Both of his wins came on good ground and there might just be some stouter stayers over this trip on ground with a little juice in it.
Battle Born is an intriguing contender – off the track for 772 days, he was an exciting novice when last seen, hacking up on his hurdling debut at Uttoxeter with the likes of Champagne At Tara 12 lengths in arrears. That horse is rated 135 over hurdles now, so if Charlie Longsdon’s charge retains all of his ability after such a long time off, his mark of 126 here will be woefully inadequate. However, it’s much more likely that this will serve as a fact-finding mission for Longsdon and I doubt that the horse will be subject to any harsh treatment in the closing stages if (and when) he gets tired, so while he might be best watched here, keeping him in the notebook for the future could well pay off handsomely if he’s anywhere near the animal he was two years ago.
Another who could be nicely handicapped is the Philip Hobbs-trained Onefitzall, who ran on promisingly at the end of a two and a half mile handicap hurdle at Carlisle behind the smart Definitly Red. His jumping could do with some brushing up and he’ll probably relish three miles and a fence later on in his career, but a mark of 133 certainly looks a workable one for the time being. The Indian Danehill gelding has plenty more progress to come and shouldn’t be ruled out, but there’s another with plenty of ability and improvement to come that I can’t overlook.
Dan Skelton’s BORN SURVIVOR was well-fancied in the market for last week’s Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock before he was taken out at declarations. Although it seemed the logical race for this embryonic chaser to go for, it now seems a good move after the race was run in some extremely energy-sapping conditions and could have made the horse leave his season there. This is an easier task, despite having to carry 11st 11lb from a mark of 141, and with the track, trip and ground looking as if they’ll be perfect for him; he’s a rock-solid contender. His seasonal reappearance behind a handicap blot in Massini’s Trap was more than satisfactory and given the way that Skelton’s runners have been coming on plenty for a run this year, a 2lb higher mark should be no problem at all. The King’s Theatre gelding is hugely well thought of, especially when it comes to going chasing next season, so in a weaker race than his last run at Aintree, he should be very hard to beat.
Advice
BORN SURVIVOR – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
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