Races of interest

[bitchy]

3.00 Haydock Park -19/11/2016

Betfair Chase (Grade 1) (3m24yds)

Saturday sees the first leg of the £1 Million bonus series for any horse that can win the Betfair Chase at Haydock , King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.

Last year Cue Card won the first two races and then cane down in the Gold Cup. He will be lining up again this year although has a bit to prove after a below par effort at Wetherby a couple of weeks ago.

Coneygree is also an intended runner after being off for a while with an injury. He famously won the Gold Cup while still being a novice in 2015 and will be keen to put himself back in the picture. Regular pilot Nico De Boinville is out injured so a new jockey is being sought. Richard Johnson is favourite but may be required to ride Menorah.

Latest Odds: Skybet

13/8 Cue Card

11/4 Coneygree

9/1 Irish Cavalier

10/1 Silviniano Conti

12/1 Seeyouatmidnight

14/1 Outlander, Gods Own

16/1 Blaklion

20/1 Menorah

25/1 Bar

[bitchy]

BETFAIR CHASE TRENDS 2016 - thanks to racecaller for the use of these trends


The Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 19th November. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last 4 runnings between them and are both entered again this year.


Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 2-1-3

7yo: 2-4-15

8yo: 1-3-22

9yo: 3-3-17

10yo: 1-1-5

11yo+: 1-0-4

Ages of the winners has been fairly well spread out.

Horses aged 6 have gained 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runners, all 3 were French bred.

4 of 5 winners aged 9+ had finished 1st or 2nd in a previous Betfair Chase, exception was Snoopy Loopy who benefitted from a final fence fall from Kauto Star.


Breeding

French Bred: 6-8-27

Irish Bred: 2-4-22

British Bred: 2-0-17

Record of French breds aged 6 or 7: 3-5-11

Record of French breds aged 8 or older: 3-2-15 (3 wins came from previous winners, Silviniaco Conti & Kauto Star)


Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had 0 or 1 run that season

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 167+ on last completed start

8 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 19 times over fences (2 exceptions were Kauto Star winning it for 3rd & 4th time)

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 chase

8 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (one exception 3rd in a grade 1 hurdle)

5 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (3 exceptions having first course run and 2 others were placed on one previous runs here)


Other Races

Previous year's winner (Cue Card): 61U342 (1-2-6)

King George winner (Cue Card): 1U12412 (3-2-7)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): 764312 (1-1-6)

Ascot Chase winner (Silvianaco Conti): U1 (1-0-2)

Bet365 Oaksey Chase winner (Menorah): 2 (0-1-1)

7 of 10 winners ran in previous season's King George, finishing 1153515

5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 1U234

5 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 11134

4 of 10 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase last time, finishing 3151

3 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Bowl Chase, finishing U12

3 of 10 winners ran in Old Roan Chase, finishing 123

2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing P4


Trainers

Paul Nicholls (6-2-11) saddled Kauto Star to win it 4 times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 & 2014.

Colin Tizzard (2-0-4) trained Cue Card to win this in 2013 & 2015.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) has saddled Imperial Commander to finish 1st & 2nd.

David Pipe (0-3-6) has trained the 2nd in 2008 & 2012 and 3rd in 2009 & 2014.

Philip Hobbs (0-1-2) saddled Menorah to finish 2nd in 2014 and Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-5) saddled runner-up in 2007.


Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter

The slightly fortuitous Snoopy Loopy and Cue Card (2013) have been the only 2 winners to come from outside the top 3 in the betting.

The favourite (4-3-10) have won 4 of the 10 runnings, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £2.52.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- French bred 6yos do particularly well

- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start

- Posted an RPR of 167+ last time

- Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)

- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase

- Won over 3 miles or further

- Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time

- Finished in first 5 in 2015 Betfair Chase and/or King George

- Finished in first 4 in 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup

- Priced 9/1 or shorter

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard

[Faugheen_Machine]

Surprised Blacklion has been taken out. I assume it is all systems go for the Hennessey now.

[Istabraq]

Some great pointers there bitchy.

I agree FM, Blacklion was the value for me, Silvi now ?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Conti or seeyouatmidnight are the two I'm interested in. Could be very soft come race day.

[Istabraq]

I'm not sure why Gods Own is considered a 3m horse and certainly not on soft ground, that one has to come out

[MrMcGoldrick]

I'm not sure why Gods Own is considered a 3m horse and certainly not on soft ground, that one has to come out

Can't argue with that Isty, what do you reckon to Coneygree, stable appear to think he's not far off his best, could well need the run, plus obviously has much bigger target, but just thinking whether he would need to be more than 85% to feature prominently here

[Istabraq]

Just commented on the Gold Cup thread but I don't see Coneygree winning on Sat, if he does it will be a tremendous training feat.
I think Cue Card is the most likely winner and his price reflects this, was backed as if defeat was out of the question on reappearance but disappointed, I think older horses just need more time to get ready so he is probably now better placed to win than he was at Wetherby.
Silvi the e/w value if we get 8...

[Vanilla]

I hope Coneygree puts up a good show.

It will be good for the sport.

Sometimes it's not about backing winners.

[jono]

I think Cue Card has everything in his favour in this race for sure. I'm just counting on the Bradstocks in having Coneygree back to the level he was after the Gold Cup and his Sandown run. The pressure is on Cue Card a lot more than Coneygree. A defeat for Cue Card in this really raises question marks about him for the remainder of the season.

Silviniaco Conti looks a good each way price for me. Think this may be the horses Gold Cup and his best chance of another grade 1 win so he'll be absolutely spot on for this.

[Istabraq]

As suspected, those pullouts today mean we have just the 7....

[Faugheen_Machine]

It looks a difficult puzzle to solve. A lot will depend on how the ground is riding before I place a bet. I'm still keen to take on the front two in the market.

I'm going to Haydock on Saturday, hope the rain eases off slightly.

[Istabraq]

Enjoy FM, cracking card always well supported.
I wouldn't put it past Menorah to run a decent race if ground doesn't soften further...

[Istabraq]

Menorah taken out, Dickie on Coneygree...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Any other fancies at the weekend Ista? I really, really like Vaniteux at Ascot, think he's much better than his mark