Newmarket’s Future Champions Festival Day 1 - 7/10/2016

[bitchy]

1.35 Newmarket – The Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)



A fairly trick y opening to proceedings but the unbeaten MRS DANVERS has improved with every start so far and could be up to making it 5/5. She was reported as somewhat of a fairytale story prior to the Weatherbys Super Sprint as she changed hands for just £1,000 back in February and there was a suspicion that she was only a soft-ground performer having got her toe in a pair of easy-ground minor contests earlier in the campaign. The emerging superstar blew that theory out of the water with a dominant victory in the valuable Newbury contest and followed up a month later with another solid display when scoring in the Listed St Hugh’s Stakes. There were a hatful of potential landing spots mooted on the back of that win but the Cornwallis has been her end of season target for some time and if she puts her best foot forward again here, she could be mightily difficult to stop.

The one to give her most to think about could be Clem Fandango who herself was a fairly inexpensive purchase as she passed through the ring for €11,000 as a yearling. Keith Dalgleish’s filly had put in some good performances in big races when third behind Lady Aurelia in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot and filling the same position behind the selection in the Super Sprint before duly landing a big win of her own when hosing up in the Listed Harry Roseberry Stakes at Ayr’s Gold Cup meeting.

For only winning up to Listed level, both fillies escape a penalty and that could be enough to tip the balance in their favour with the other main protagonists having to concede at least 6lb.

Afandem rates the strongest of those with the burden of a penalty courtesy of his easy win in a Chantilly Group 3 last month. Hugo Palmer’s charge has gone from strength to strength since landing a Listed race at Vichy in July, finishing runner-up to Big Time Baby in the Listed Julia Graves Stakes at York (won in a track record time), scoring in the aforementioned Chantilly race and finishing a close-up fourth in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes last time out. He had subsequent Middle Park Stakes winner The Last Lion just a length ahead of him that day but he may prefer a bit more juice in the ground than he’s likely to face here.
Now with a mountain to prove, Yalta drops back to Group 3 level for the first time since breaking the track record in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood (with The Last Lion trailing in his wake back in second). In truth, he was set a tough task in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes on his penultimate start taking on his elders, but he was still quietly fancied and faded well out of proceedings as he trailed in last. He then failed to bounce back in the Flying Childers with a tame effort and really seems a very risky all or nothing proposition with form figures of 1188100.

Top weight Prince of Lir has to concede weight all round thanks to his win in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and looks to have a tough task given what he has shown in recent outings. He has followed an identical route to Yalta on his last couple of starts and while he has performed with much more credit than his re-opposing rival, he still looks to have it all to do.

One of the more intriguing contenders is Visionary who hasn’t been seen since finishing third in a decent novice event at Ascot back at the start of May. Robert Cowell’s charge failed to defy a penalty against lesser exposed opposition but wasn’t disgraced in third with subsequent Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes winner Harry Angel ahead of him in second. The fourth has also gone in since so the form stacks up pretty well but a leap of faith is required stepping into this company for the first time having been off the track for five months.

Recent Naas scorer Courage Under Fire is one of the higher rated individuals in the field even though he only has the sole maiden win to his name. He was second behind stablemate Caravaggio in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and down the field in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York prior to breaking his duck but is unexposed at the minimum trip and that seemed to bring the best out of him last time.

MY Advice

MRS DANVERS – 2pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power)




*
2.05 Newmarket – Visionsport.Com Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3)



This seven furlongs Group 3 has attracted a strong field with plenty of depth in it and one filly who has tried this company on her last two starts is Asidious Alexander. Simon Crisford’s filly won a Listed race at Deauville back in July but has been far from disgraced behind Cavale Doree and Toulifaut on her last two runs. She was perhaps a shade unlucky not to finish closer last time having had to wait for a gap to appear and whilst she would have to be high on any shortlist, she will need a personal best to get her head in front here.

The Rockfel run over course and distance a couple of weeks ago could be form worth following and the race is represented by the third and fourth Miss Infinity and Glitter Girl. The former could well take the field along in the early part of the race and having only been beaten by Spain Burg and Fair Eva last time, she should thereabouts in this lower grade. The latter appeared to be beaten fair and square and although Ryan Moore getting aboard is a positive, it is hard to see her reversing the form.

One filly who has already shown she is up to this level is Grecian Light who has already been placed three times in Group company. Her penultimate effort when second behind Rich Legacy at Doncaster was her best to date as she was just worn down in the closing stages of the mile contest. She has since finished second in Group 3 company at the Curragh in heavy ground and as long as those exertions haven’t taken their toll on her, it would be no surprise to see her play a leading role.

There are a few last-time out winners who step up in grade for the first time, including Pichola Dance who recorded her second victory over this course and distance last time. Despite being relatively unfancied beforehand, she stayed on well in the closing stages to win that nursery, but would need a big step forward to contend here. Andrew Balding has also selected this race as the next port of call for Poet’s Vanity who won by ten lengths the last time we saw her at the beginning of September. She was fourth in a warm maiden on her first start on the July Course but she improved a lot for that experience and has earned a crack at this sort of level. The yard continue to fire in the winners and a repeat of her latest effort would stand her in good stead.

I should also mention Hugo Palmer’s Unforgetable Filly who may have been beaten in a conditions event last time but judged on her seven length Lingfield success, I don’t think we should be giving up on her yet. She had to fight for the lead last time and whilst her rival dropped away, she just got collared in the closing stages by a more patiently ridden filly. She is not guaranteed to get things her own way here but I suspect she is better than what we saw from her last time.

However, the one of most interest to me is the French raider DOUBLE LADY who was narrowly beaten by the smart Toulifaut on her racecourse debut in July. Andre Fabre’s filly had no problem getting off the mark next time when readily accounted for more experienced rival at Maisons-Lafitte. Her brilliant trainer won this race in 2013 with subsequent 1000 Guineas heroine Miss France and he has an excellent strike-rate (6 winners from 14 runners) when sending horses over to Newmarket. On her bare form she probably has a bit to find with some of her rivals here but she is in good hands and I find it hard to see finishing outside of the places.


MY Advice



DOUBLE LADY – 1.5pt win @ 3/1 (bet365, William Hill)



**
2.40 Newmarket – Dubai 100 Challenge Stakes (Group 2)



Aidan O’Brien’s Cougar Mountain is likely to be popular in some quarters having run out a ready winner of the Joel Stakes here on the Rowley Mile a couple of weeks ago. That success was over a mile but the Fastnet Rock colt quickened up smartly in the closing stages and he should have trouble dropping back a furlong in distance. My biggest concern would be that he doesn’t win too often and looking at his form, he looks unlikely to be able to back that up. The runner-up a couple of weeks ago was Gifted Master who tends to race keenly and just didn’t see out the mile on that occasion. The drop back in trip promises to suit him down to the ground and if his old rival fails to reproduce his latest level of performance, I could see him reversing the form.

However this is far from a two horse race and surely more can be expected of Richard Pankhurst who was a disappointing favourite at Doncaster last time. That ground was slightly slower than the ground he won on at Newbury and perhaps it is top of the ground that he needs to be seen at his best. One slight concern I would have about him is that he seems to enjoy flat tracks having won at the likes of Haydock and Ascot so the undulations will pose an extra test for him. He clearly has ability but there are enough question marks to steer clear of him on this occasion.

The older horses are also represented by Jallota who has done his fair share of travelling in recent weeks, winning a Group 3 in France before being narrowly denied in Group 1 company in Italy when last seen. Prior to that he had run well at both York and Goodwood and it is hard to find a reason to knock him. This is his sort of level and he represents last year’s winning stable of Charlie Hills.

However, I have a suspicion that this could go the way of the Classic generation and in terms of recent form, Martyn Meade’s Aclaim must come into the mix. The colt won over six furlongs on the Rowley Mile at the Craven meeting but has stepped up in trip of late and followed his handicap victory over a mile with a first Listed success at Newbury last time. Both of those races seem to be working out well subsequently and he seems to be pretty versatile in terms of ground, having won on everything from soft to good-to-firm. Clearly he needs to take another step forward her but with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, he could outrun his sizeable odds.

The two fillies at the bottom are also interesting and the first one to mention is Lumiere who is hard to assess overall. Her occasional brilliant performances have been between a series of below-par displays, although her latest effort at Doncaster was solid enough. She won the Cheveley Park Stakes here as a two-year-old but although she has won over a mile, I suspect that six furlongs is her optimum trip.
Mick Channon’s Opal Tiara won a handicap at York’s Ebor meeting on her penultimate start and she subsequently went on to record a first Group success, getting the better of Convey at Goodwood. She seems to be improving with every run and although I think she has plenty to find with the highest rated in the field, she can’t be ruled out.

The one who gets the nod though is TASLEET who hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since winning the rearranged Greenham Stakes at Chelmsford in April. He got the better of Knife Edge on that occasion who went on to win the German 2000 Guineas* and his overall form is as good as any of the runners here. Clearly all has not been well with the colt in the interim but the William Haggas yard have been in flying form over the last month or so and I find it hard to believe they would be sending him here undercooked. He has form at the track, having finished a narrow second in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes over course and distance last September and taking his wellbeing on trust, I think he is overpriced at around the 10/1 mark.


MY Advice



TASLEET – 0.75pt e/w @ 11/1 (Paddy Power)

[bitchy]

3.10 Newmarket – Dubai Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)




Over the past ten years, this race has been won by either Aidan O’Brien or a runner in the blue of Godolphin six times and with four of the field of eight being of the same ilk, it’s likely the winner could well come from those four.

Rhododendron looks to be the Ballydoyle number one in the race, the choice of Ryan Moore, despite finishing a length and three quarters behind the re-opposing Hydrangea in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last time out. She only beat that rival by a head in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes the occasion before that as well, so it’s clear that there’s not much between these two Galileo fillies. The step up to a mile should suit both, but on their last runs, it is the less-fancied Hydrangea that looks to be crying out for the longer trip. She’s battled on strongly after setting the pace in both of her last two runs, with no suggestion she was running out of gas and it could well be that Seamie Heffernan has been given the box seat here. Rhododendron did stay on at the same pace at the end of the Moyglare Stud Stakes, suggesting a mile would be no issue, but the way she hung right handed in under pressure in both of her last two races is a worry and at the prices, she doesn’t make as much appeal to me as her stablemate.

Godolphin’s charge is spearheaded by wide-margin maiden winner, Sobetsu, who made an incredible visual impression when hacking up by ten lengths in a C&D maiden three weeks ago. She had clearly learned plenty from her debut third at the July Course behind Spatial, who also goes again here, and looked a nailed-on Group winner for the future. However, this is a huge step-up from maiden company and even though we don’t know how good this daughter of Dubawi could be, she does come with risks attached to her short price. Slightly softer ground seemed to be one of the catalysts to an improved effort and with the Prix Marcel Boussac considered soon after her maiden win and an entry in the Irish 1000 Guineas in the book, it does suggest that fast ground could well be the lesser preferred of the extremes. With a dry forecast before Friday’s racing, we could see some fast, good to firm ground come off time. The time of her maiden win didn’t really reflect the manner of it either – it was slow by over three seconds on ground officially described as ‘Good’ even though she had the run of the race from the front. It’s unlikely that she’ll be allowed to dominate again here, so it could be that her effort needs to be taken with a pinch of salt when relating it to this contest.

Outside of the two powerful operations that have dominated the race in recent times, Cheveley Park Stud’s SPATIAL, was three and a half lengths in front of the favourite when winning over seven furlongs at the July Course back in August and the form of her one and a quarter length second behind Wuheida on her racecourse debut couldn’t have been franked any better when the Godolphin filly took the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac last weekend in pretty comfortable style over Aidan O’Brien’s Promise To Be True and John Gosden’s Dabyah. She’s clearly at home on fast ground and this daughter of New Approach was instantly talked of as a Rockfel-level filly by her owners after her maiden win, a facile affair as she quickened clear of two useful fillies, staying on well in the manner of one for whom a mile certainly wouldn’t be a problem – her pedigree backs that up (New Approach – Spacious (Nayef)). She should have improved from that last run and should also improve thanks to the step up in trip, so if Sobetsu bolted up by ten lengths after finishing third to this filly, how good is Sir Michael Stoute’s charge? She’ll likely sit behind the many possible leaders, who should set a decent pace, and be produced to lethal effect in the final furlong – I wonder which filly Ryan Moore would choose to ride if he wasn’t attached to Ballydoyle, as he rode SPATIAL to her maiden win last time out, only having to shake her up to stride clear.

One other filly in the line-up that is interesting and deserves a mention is Group 2 May Hill Stakes winner, Rich Legacy. The Qatar Racing-owned filly battled on strongly to defeat Grecian Light over a mile at Doncaster and already looks as if this trip could well be a minimum for her. However, she’s clearly a classy competitor with a great attitude, so if they go off too fast, she might be the one who finishes the race off best. Even though this could prove a little too sharp in this company, she’s definitely one to keep an eye on for next season and Oaks contention for trainer Ralph Beckett, with plenty of stamina on her Dam’s side of the family.


MY Advice



SPATIAL – 1pt win @ 9/2 (William Hill)




*
3.45 Newmarket – Godolphin Flying Start Old Rowley Cup.



This valuable mile and a half handicap for three-year-olds has again attracted a good standard of competition, with the highest rated horse, Steel Of Madrid, boasting a rating of 107. Richard Hannon’s middle-distance performer also has the services of Ryan Moore for this race, so even though he’ll be giving plenty of weight to his rivals, connections clearly feel he’s got a decent chance. His four and a half-length fifth to Almanzor in a Deauville Group 2 certainly doesn’t look bad form now and he has to have a chance on his similar effort in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. However, he does look a rather one-paced individual and after giving at least 8lb to everything else in the field, he might just find things happening a bit too quickly on a lively surface.

Scarlet Dragon is his closest rival on ratings and with the 5lb claim of jockey Hollie Doyle helping to lighten the load, this in-form three-year-old has to be given the utmost respect. His effort in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury was an excellent one given he was 7lb up from his last win, so it gives you hope that this extra 4lb rise could be within his reach – effectively only up 6lbs from his comfortable win in a competitive York handicap thanks to Doyle’s claim. The son of Sir Percy is versatile ground-wise and tactically and looks to be a very straightforward type, so there aren’t many downsides to him and his chance here. However, there could just be a couple lurking that are on an upward curve and have more in hand of their mark.

From the very much in-form David Menuisier yard, Saunter looks to be the number one choice of the two he has entered (Kaatskill Nap is the other) and judging by the style of his easy win over Huge Future at this venue last time out, he’ll have a very big chance. After beating that 95-rated rival by almost three lengths, eased down, he’s been given a 9lb hike up to 99 in the ratings, but it’s a leap that seems justified on that performance. However, this is by far the most competitive contest he’s been involved in and jumping up two furlongs in trip is a leap into the unknown as well, so he might be best watched.

Danehill Kodiac is Richard Hannon’s second runner in the race and after finishing second behind New Caledonia on his last run, he meets him again here on 4lb better terms, which looks enough to turn the tables on this quicker surface. However, both look held on the form lines by William Knight’s Southdown Lad, who comfortably got the better of New Caledonia at Newbury three weeks ago in receipt of 5lb. Although he only gets the 1lb from that rival this time, the step up to a mile and a half helped Knight’s colt to improve plenty and he could still be on an upward curve at this trip given he was considered good enough to run in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot before picking up an injury. The worry with him is that he prefers a little bit of cut in the ground, but he’s been targeted at this for a while and he could run a big race.

One who doesn’t want an ease in the ground is Jeremy Noseda’s progressive Sixties Groove, last seen finishing just behind the useful Poet’s Word at Goodwood off a mark of 83. That effort was after a 12lb rise dealt to him by the handicapper for a runaway win at Epsom, so he still looked ahead of his mark and a subsequent 7lb extra added on top of that still might not be enough to halt his progress. He has the services of current Champion Jockey Silvestre De Sousa, so he won’t be wanting for assistance from the saddle and he should get his favoured strong pace to run at, so he’s another with claims if the combined 27lb rise in the weights since the start of his 3-y-o campaign hasn’t taken its toll.

Speaking of weights, one who will have to carry next to nothing is Eve Johnson-Houghton’s Fleeting Visit who, despite being 2lb out of the weights, has the assistance of 7lb claimer Sophie Killoran to bring the equation back in the gelding’s favour. He’s effectively 5lb better off than his mark and has been in decent from recently, finishing four lengths behind Mengli Khan on the all-weather and ahead of the likes of Sennockian Star and Banditry when third in a mile and a quarter handicap at Sandown. He’s shaped as if this step up in trip is going to suit and if you’re looking for a lively outsider, you could do worse given he only has to carry 7st 7lbs – 7lbs less than any other horse in the race.

But there’s another who could be even better treated – Hugo Palmer’s BANISH hasn’t been the most straightforward, but his victory on the all-weather at Kempton last time out gave us a glimpse of this horse’s potential. After being held up in the last pair, as is his usual style, he quickened up staggeringly two furlongs from home and stayed on strongly to win despite being very wide on the track and hanging slightly down the straight.

The step up to this trip on fast turf looks to be the perfect next stage for his progression now that blinkers seem to have unlocked more of his undoubted ability and he could finally start to make good on the talent and promise that he’s shown despite being a difficult ride. The excellent Josephine Gordon is booked and her 3lb claim is a real gift for Palmer’s gelding, offsetting half of the 6lb penalty he runs with for that all-weather success. He’s effectively 4lb well-in after her claim as he’s running off a pound lower than his official rating anyway, so even though he’s a risky proposition given his record and ‘last to first’ run-style, the son of Smart Strike might just be the most rapidly improving sort in the field. This jockey/trainer combination teamed up well with Baydar to win another valuable middle distance handicap last month at Newbury and they might just have another one dialled up here.



MY Advice




BANISH 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365)




*
4.20 Newmarket – The visionsport.com Maiden Fillies’ Stakes.




Somewhat surprisingly, there is a much smaller field lining up than previous years but it still looks a race full of quality and generally throws up a few winners down the line.

Half of the field have form in the book and Vigee Le Brun possibly boasts the strongest credentials on what we have seen so far. She was fairly unfancied on debut at Newbury and looked pretty green throughout but stuck to her guns and stayed on well to finish third behind the exciting Executive Force. With that experience under her belt, and on ground that will likely prove much more suitable, she has a chance to play a role in the finish.

Heavenly Angel was another staying on well over six furlongs last time so should appreciate this step up in trip while Andrew Balding’s Highland Pass, a half-sister to Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park, was set a fairly stiff task in a valuable course and distance conditions event last time and wasn’t disgraced in a close-up third.

However, the unraced quintet make most appeal in this line-up with some eye-catching pedigrees and hefty price tags to live up to.

Hugo Palmer’s Alouja went for 420,000gns as a yearling and is a half-sister to dual German Group 3 winner Magic Artist while Dream of Joy passed through the ring for €290,000 to the ever-expanding China Horse Club. The daughter of Dream Ahead is a half-sister to two-time Canadian Grade 1 winner Wigmore Hall and rates one of the more likely candidates on debut.

Nevertheless, preference is for Godolphin’s FASHION THEORY. The Dubawi filly is out a French Group 3 winner and must have a leading chance with Charlie Appleby’s string in rude health at present. Buoyed by the victory of Wuheida in the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day, the yard boasts a 23% strike-rate with two-year-olds this campaign and a staggering level stakes profit of £37.19.

Astronomy’s Choice could rate as the biggest threat to the selection as the first foal of a very well-bred mare in Astronomy Domine. She was unplaced on her only start for the same connections as her daughter but was knocked down for €280,000 as a yearling and is a half-sister to Group 3 winner Pacifique (whose first foal was sold for €2.6million as a yearling at Arqana last year) and Listed winner Prudenzia (the dam of Irish Oaks winner Chicquita).

For powerful connections, Mittens must be taken seriously although she doesn’t boast as strong a pedigree as some of her rivals. The New Approach filly is out of a minor winner in France who is a full-sister to a multiple French winner and a half-sister to dual American Grade 2 scorer Treat Gently. She looks as though she may be a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver though and will likely be better next year and beyond.


MY ADVICE



FASHION THEORY – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365)




*
4.50 Newmarket – Dubai Business Internships Pride Stakes (Listed Race)




The final race of the day is this 1m2f race for the fillies and although the older fillies have held sway in recent years, I think the Classic generation may hold all the cards in this year’s renewal.

Clive Cox’s Quebee has been one of the most progressive fillies in training this season having won a handicap off a mark of 74 at the end of May. She has since won twice since including a Listed success at Sandown where she got the better of the well-regarded Yorker and she now finds herself on a mark of 102. That latest success was over a mile but she seemed to relish the stiff finish at Sandown and with that in mind, I don’t see her having any trouble stepping up to this trip for the first time. She does carry a 3lb penalty for that Listed success which is likely to make life more difficult for her but she is thriving at present and looks likely to run her race.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Playful Sound is another improver having won for the third time at Chester at the beginning of last month. That was her second victory in handicap company and she got the better of Les Eyre’s Cote D’Azur who has also done his fair share of winning this term. Clearly a handicap victory off a mark of 88 is not good enough form to win this race but her trainer is a master at bringing horses along slowly so it would be no surprise to see her step forward again and play a part here.

One filly who ran in Listed company last time was Luca Cumani’s Materialistic who chased home So Mi Dar in fourth at Yarmouth. I think her lack of experience probably caught her out on that occasion and I don’t think it is too presumptuous to say that So Mi Dar and Arabian Queen are probably a bit better than Listed class. There doesn’t appear to be a standout filly in this line-up and I don’t think we have seen the best of this filly yet. She won her maiden here last October so the track should hold no fears and she should finish a good deal closer than she did last time.

However, the one I like the most is Roger Varian’s DAWN OF HOPE who has so far been restricted to just four runs but this half-sister to Ayrad has always been highly thought of by connections. She got off the mark at the second attempt last year before finishing down the field in the Fillies Mile last October. Her reappearance win at Ascot was an impressive one and the Oaks was mooted as a possible target but clearly all has not been well since then. She saw out the mile really well at Ascot last time so the step up to 1m2f should suit and if she can resume her improvement back from a break, I fancy her to take a leading hand. I think she could be very smart if kept in training next year and this looks a good opportunity for her to gain some black type for the pedigree.

If an older filly is to win, their best chance looks to be Lady Of Camelot who chased home stablemate Journey in the Princess Royal Stakes over 1m4f last time. She finished ahead of some smart fillies on that occasion and although she has yet to race over 1m2f, I don’t see any reason why the drop back in trip should inconvenience her. She has only had the five races to date so there should be more to come from John Gosden’s filly and she could take a leading hand in this tight looking contest.


MY Advice



DAWN OF HOPE – 1pt win @ 15/2 (bet365)

[Istabraq]

Cheers bitchy, excellent work.
You not covering The Abbot lol

Powder dry for me tomorrow but keen to get with Oriental Fox in big race Sat, 3lb lower than mark that saw him finish about half an inch behind Grumetti in last years renewal.

Good luck to all who play tomorrow

[Faugheen_Machine]

^^^^decent draw for Oriental Fox as well, which most of the market leaders don't.

[Istabraq]

Taken the 16s just incase he ends up Pricewise pick and get smashed into 9s

Good hit Mrs Danvers bitchy, hope you climbed in

[Istabraq]

I'm liking the chances of Ennistown too.
The yard have won this a couple of times so know what it takes and the horse is fit from a couple of NH spins, the last of which was when slamming a decent field in a valuable handicap at Cartmel.
I know this is the sort of race you can make a case for the lot but at 25s or thereabouts there will be worse valued horses taking their chance....

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just Starchitect for me tomorrow. Really liked his chances but the draw has tempered my enthusiasm slightly. It's nice to have decent jumps races back.

[Istabraq]

Did you read the Donn piece on the draw FM ?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Haven't seen it Ista. Can you post it?

[Istabraq]

http://www.betdaqtips.com/2016/10/07/donn-mcclean-21/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thanks - A good read. He echo's my thoughts on the draw but I'm struggling to come up with a strong argument for any of the horses drawn low. Unusually for me, I'm going to stick with one horse in a big handicap and hope for the best.

[bitchy]

Newmarket’s Future Champions Festival Day 2 - 8/10/2016




1.45 Newmarket – Visionsport.com EBF Stallions Boadicea Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race)


It looks as if there are a few fillies that are head and shoulders above the rest in terms of form and quality in this Listed contest and they’re conveniently sat right next to each other in the racecard. They’re all part of the three-year-old group that have dominated this race in recent times, with seven wins in the last ten years.

Number 9 in the racecard is William Haggas’ Gravity Flow, who comes into the race looking to complete a five-timer. She’s been steadily progressive since her debut at Kempton in September of 2015, taking some pretty competitive handicap races in her last three runs, including defeating the likes of Battlement and Cersei at Windsor and having the re-opposing Stellarta and Secret Hint well-beaten in behind her in the Lochsong Fillies Handicap at Salisbury. She does meet Stellarta on slightly worse terms here, but a couple of pounds extra in no way suggests that the result will be any different. This race is clearly a step up from anything she’s contested before, but she’s improving all the time, has never finished outside the top two in her six races so far and is well worth her place in this company.

Next up is Kassia, trained by Mick Channon, last seen defeating Stellarta by three quarters of a length at Pontefract while giving her 1lb – the weights favour Channon’s filly here and, again, there shouldn’t be a reversal in the form. This acclamation filly has been running superbly well over the last few months, winning three times and just failing to overhaul the useful Kevin Ryan gelding, Laughton, at Goodwood when attempting to give him a stone in weight over five furlongs. She’s always been very highly regarded by her stable and now her issues with the stalls have been ironed out, she can fulfil her potential, which certainly looks to be as a Black-type filly. Six furlongs looks to be her ideal trip and she’s versatile regarding ground, winning on good-to-frim to soft ground, so she’s definitely going to be there or thereabouts under Graham Lee – it will take a very smart one to beat her on these terms.

Speaking of which, I was very keen on Charlie Appleby’s filly, MISE EN ROSE, for the Listed October Stakes at Ascot over seven furlongs last week. That was until the rain came and, of course, she was declared a non-runner. This doesn’t look to be as strong a race as that contest and with these terms making her 7lbs (at the very least) better off with her rivals than in a handicap, she’s going to be my selection again here back on ground that looks as if it will be very quick. Her form is above anything else in the race by quite some way, including second placed finishes to Spangled and Al Jazi in Group 3 contests over seven furlongs, and it’s been declared as the aim by the trainer for her to win some black type race before the season’s out. Even though this drop back to six furlongs is a leap into the unknown, the daughter of War Front looks plenty speedy enough for it and the application of cheekpieces for the first time could even help her to improve further on her already decent form. William Buick takes the ride and even though the draw in stall 2 isn’t ideal, MISE EN ROSE rates a confident pick to make it two wins in this race in the last two runnings for Appleby and Buick after Mistrusting did the business in 2015.

There is one more who deserves a mention here – the in-form William Haggas yard sends out Symposium, who’s on a four timer after pipping Group 2 & Listed-placed Ornate in a decent race at Ascot last time out. Interestingly, Ryan Moore was just beaten that day and rides this filly here so he was clearly impressed by what he saw. The filly has gone up 6lbs for that victory over a 100-rated rival and that might not be close to her true rating just yet so she can’t be ruled out confidently, even though she might prefer a softer surface.

MY Advice


MISE EN ROSE – 1.5pts win @ 10/3 (Paddy Power)



*
2.20 Newmarket – Dubai Business Internships Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2)



These high-quality nurseries are always devilishly tricky, especially at this time of the year, and this one looks no different, with six of the field already rated above 80. One such contender is the Khalid Abdullah-owned Amabilis, who dead heated with the useful Dubara at Beverley last time out. On that evidence, her mark is about right and she’ll need to have improved to take this, but Ralph Beckett has had a great season yet again with his fillies and it’s certainly not out of the question that she has.

Muthmira broke her maiden tag last time out at Yarmouth in good style on fast ground, making all and dominating all the way to the line. She was denied a clear run at Ascot the run before that and showed clear promise so it was no surprise that she stepped up again. The question is whether a mark of 81 is fair for that one decent performance. Judging by the quality of some of Simon Crisford’s two-year-olds this season, this filly could be another good one, so the booking of Silvestre De Sousa suggests 81 is not insurmountable.

One who has a bit more experience in this type of race is Seduce Me, trained by Karl Burke and last seen finishing a close fourth in a valuable six furlong sales race at this track. The step up to seven furlongs should definitely help to draw out more from this tough-looking type and she’s definitely got a great chance of making the frame at least. It’s possible that she might want a little more cut in the surface than she’s going to get, but the daughter of Dutch Art could be one to stay on when others have cried enough – she was first home in her group on that last day and was just undone by being on the wrong side.
The Godolphin filly Romantic View, who is the top-rated (87) filly in the race, was last seen finishing fifth behind Pichola Dance in a good-looking contest over C&D around two weeks ago. That was her first run since June, so the fact she weakened a little in the final 100 yards can be forgiven somewhat and she should strip fitter again today. The fast ground will suit and even though she’ll have to carry the welter burden, she’s got a leading chance again.

After Glitter Girl’s second place in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, the third and fourth in the six and a half furlong Nursery that she won at Doncaster a month ago look to have great chances on form. Fire Palace, trained by Robert Eddery, looked as if she’d appreciate this step up to seven furlongs when running on well towards the end of that race and after going up just 2lbs in the weights, she should run well again here. The worry is that she doesn’t have the considerable 7lb assistance of claiming jockey Cameron Noble here, so she’s effectively 9lb higher, which could be too much to bear.

Island Vision was just three quarters of a length behind Fire Palace that day and with an effective 9lb swing back in her favour here, you’d expect that form to be turned on its head. Despite being the second string contender for Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum judging by the colours assigned (red cap), Jim Crowley isn’t exactly a second-string booking for the saddle and I think she’s got a superb chance in a race where those towards the bottom of the handicap usually do well. Rated 78, she certainly looked a better filly than that last time when fourth off the same mark after being carried left before staying on and if David Simcock has kept her improving again, she has to have a superb chance.

However, there is another in the race that could be even further ahead of her mark and it’s the Mick Channon-trained HARMONISE. She was a close second behind Pichola Dance, who ran in the Oh So Sharp Stakes on Friday and was admittedly well-beaten, but the form of that run (ahead of Blushing Rose, Clef, Romantic View and Arwa amongst others) looks pretty strong. She’s only gone up 2lb for that effort, which seems very lenient and off a mark of 72, she could be primed to strike over a trip that suits. She’s only 2lb worse off with the Godolphin filly here for about a length, so even though they’re entitled to be closer, Channon’s filly could still have the edge if she’s continued her improvement. Of course it’s never easy for a maiden to win a race as competitive as this, but she’s never been outside the first three in her races, behind smart horses like Isomer and this mark could be very lenient. Luke Morris is a good booking and this filly could put up a great showing off a low weight and at a decent price.


MY Advice


HARMONISE – 0.75pts e/w @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)



*
2.55 Newmarket – Dubai 100 Autumn Stakes*(Group 3)


There aren’t many maidens with better form than The Anvil who was a close second behind Best Of Days in the Royal Lodge Stakes over course and distance last time. Aidan O’Brien’s colt has also been placed on his two remaining starts but a repeat of his latest run would surely give him an obvious chance here. We saw on Friday how strong the Ballydoyle string of juveniles is when sending home the first two in the Fillies Mile. We know he handles the track and in this slightly weaker contest than the one he ran in a couple of weeks ago, he looks a must for the shortlist.

David Evans’ Sea Fox finished just behind The Anvil in third last time and could have been overlooked here on this occasion. He has had plenty of racing but he is likely to be ridden in the same way by Adam Kirby and I think 20/1 doesn’t accurately reflect his chances.

Simon Crisford’s Rodaini is the only member of the field with an unbeaten record and he stretched that sequence to four when holding on to win the Listed Flying Scotsman at Doncaster. He has been brought along steadily by his trainer and seems to be reaping the rewards. The form of that race has been boosted with the third having won a Group 3 since and he looks to have a leading chance on his first start in Group company.

However, I think the one they all have to beat is LOCKHEED who has always been held in high regard by his connections and has yet to disappoint them in four starts. He may have been a shade disappointing when beaten in the Acomb at York but the runner-up has won in better company since so he may just have bumped into a couple. His latest run behind Churchill in the National Stakes at the Curragh was a career best and the way he stayed on suggested this mile trip should suit. There are a couple of unexposed runners in the field who could be good but I would be surprised if they improved past him.

The most interesting of the maiden winners is probably Sir Michael Stoute’s Zainhom who got off the mark at the second attempt at York in September. The son of Street Cry travelled powerfully through the race before picking up smartly in the closing stages and he looks to have earned a crack at this sort of race. Sir Michael Stoute’s juveniles tend to improve with experience and I would expect him to step forward again here.#

Roger Varian’s Solomon’s Bay also got his head in front at the second time of asking at Yarmouth last month, beating a couple of smart colts. He didn’t finish too far behind Lockheed on debut at Ascot and at around 16/1, he could have an each-way chance if he builds on his latest success.


MY Advice


LOCKHEED – 1pt win @ 7/2 (bet365, William Hill

[bitchy]

3.30 Newmarket – The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)


The Dewhurst is perennially one of the strongest juvenile races of the season and this year’s renewal looks to be a mouth-watering affair.

Seven Heavens is bidding for a fairytale victory with the illustrious 2010 winner Frankel his superb first-season sire. John Gosden’s charge was a warm order on debut at Ascot in July and lived up to the hype as he accounted for the subsequently very smart Lockheed in decent fashion. In truth though, we haven’t really learned a great deal more about him since then as although he extended his unbeaten record with a facile victory in a valuable conditions event at Goodwood at the back end of August, he only had one other rival who has been well beaten since. He is a scopey animal who is sure to come on for that run though and is likely to play his hand in the finish.

It is a slight surprise that there are only two unbeaten colts in the field given the strength of the line-up with South Seas the only other to have an unblemished record. Qatar Racing’s chestnut has done nothing but impress since sluicing up in a Windsor maiden on his debut in June, defying a penalty with ease in a Haydock novice event a month later and hammering his rivals in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown latest. You can’t knock what he has achieved so far as he couldn’t really do any more but all of his wins have come with a bit of juice in the ground and he is unproven on the likely good to firm going he will encounter here. If he goes close here, he must be rated a top contender for the Racing Post Trophy in a fortnight for the same connections that bagged the Doncaster Group 1 back in 2014 with Elm Park.

With that in mind, preference is for CHURCHILL to make it three wins in the last four years for Aidan O’Brien. The Galileo colt has only been beaten once in his career, over an inadequate six furlongs on debut, and has gone from strength-to-strength since then with his latest demolition of a quality field in the Group 1 National Stakes (the same race won by last year’s top two-year-old Air Force Blue), a particular highlight. He has been touted as a Guineas horse since winning the Chesham at Royal Ascot back in June and has done little to dispel that theory. With Lancaster Bomber likely to set the race up nicely for him, he could prove very difficult to beat.

Belardo arrived here in 2014 on the back of a poor showing in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes but the Doncaster event is well represented this time round with the 1-2 both lining up. Rivet came out narrowly on top on that occasion and he still looks to be a colt on a steep upward curve. He was a tad green on debut at Ascot but still performed with credit when second and built on that in no uncertain terms when hosing up in the Convivial Maiden at York’s Ebor Festival. That always tends to be a strong affair and this year was no different with the second, third, fourth and fifth all franking the form by scoring subsequently. He was easy to back prior to the Champagne Stakes but travelled strongly throughout and proved too strong at the finish for his five rivals. He shouldn’t be underestimated today.

Godolphin’s Thunder Snow put up a valiant effort to try and hold off William Haggas’ charge at Doncaster and only succumbed late on to go down by a head. The conditions here should be perfect for him with his only below-par effort coming on soft ground in the Coventry (and even that was a decent display being drawn on the wrong side and racing alone down the middle of the track). He has had to play second fiddle a couple of times in Group 2s though and looks to be the second string as he steps up to Group 1 company for the first time but he could well outrun his price.

The first string for the ‘Boys in Blue’ is the aptly-named Blue Point who is yet to finish outside of the first two in five starts to date. The Shamardal colt came to the attention of the racing world with a blistering 11-length win in a Doncaster novice event in July and immediately had the top two-year-old races on his radar. He went down narrowly to Mehmas in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, when many thought he should have won getting 3lb from the winner, but bounced back in fine style with a dominant display in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York in August. Although he was again a beaten short-priced favourite, he performed with credit going down by less than a length to The Last Lion in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes and still rates one of the top juveniles around. However, connections had mooted that that would be it for his season, so it is a slight concern that this may be an afterthought and he hasn’t shaped as though crying out for the step up to seven furlongs either.


MY Advice


CHURCHILL – 2pts win @ 8/11 (bet365 & William Hill)



*
4.10 Newmarket – The Betfred Cesarewitch.



The age factor has been muddied somewhat with the last two renewals going to seven-year-olds but the average age of the winner over the last ten years is six and the historic age groups still look the way to go. With victories for Heros Fatal, Sergeant Cecil, Leg Spinner and Aaim To Prosper, six-year-olds have fared fairly well in recent years.

The record of four-year-olds has been boosted with the victories of Detroit City, Never Can Tell and Scatter Dice in recent times, taking their total to ten winners since 1974. There are a couple of four-year-olds towards the head of the market this time around including Sea of Heaven, The Cashel Man and Sweet Selection, so that record could be yet improved further.

Going back in the annals of time, three-year-olds had an ok strike-rate, with eight wins between 1975 and 1998, but it has been a different story in more recent years with Darley Sun the only winner and only one other managing to finish in the frame. We only have one member of the Classic generation, the likely favourite St Michel, going to post this year and he looks a risky proposition from an age perspective.
It isn’t a surprise that in a marathon contest such as this, lightweights have prospered with 16 of the last 21 winners carting 9st or less to victory. Three of the five to upset the applecart have been in the last ten years so it would be folly to rule them out entirely just on this trend alone.

The weight factor goes hand in hand with the official ratings and it would seem that the best bracket ofr the Cesarewitch would be those rated from 97 to 98. Horses falling into this category have won eight of the last 11 renewals which isn’t a great sign for some of the more fancies runners in the line-up including Oriental Fox (103) and Golden Spear (86).

The Cesarewitch rarely raises any alarms when it comes to the trends and the fact that National Hunt trainers have a good record shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Jumps trainers have been responsible for five of the last 10 winners, with Philip Hobbs leading the charge courtesy of wins with Detroit City and Big Easy. Hobbs is without a runner this year but there are still some top jumps yards represented by the likes of last year’s winner Grumeti, Starchitect and Modem.

Scatter Dice is the only winner not to have tasted victory over 2m+ before lining up which suggest that proven stamina is a must in the Cesarewitch. The 2m 2f trip really sorts the men from the boys and with the rise in the dip coming around a furlong out, you don’t want to be siding with a doubtful stayer.

Grumeti bucked the trend last year but historically a top-4 finish last time out is a significant advantage with eight of the last 11 winners backing that up. The likes of Oriental Fox, Sweet Selection and Sea of Heaven *look to have something to find here whereas supporters of Life Less Ordinary, Leah Freya and Starchitect can be buoyed with their charges arriving here on the back of a win last time.

You would think that the draw would prove elementary in a 2m 2f race but in keeping with similar races of this nature, the Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate, a high draw looks to be a significant disadvantage. In the last decade, only two winners have been drawn higher than 20 so the draw is definitely not to ignored.

There have been only two winning favourites in the past ten years (Detroit City & Darley Sun) with Vintage Crop also justifying favouritism in fine style back in 1992. It isn’t a shock that the fate of the favourite has been indifferent in a 30-odd runner handicap and the percentage call is to look elsewhere.

Take into account that there have been a pair of 66/1 winners and a 50/1 shot in the last decade, and it shows that even if you fancy a rank outsider, they could still hold a realistic chance.


Shortlist


THE CASHEL MAN 7/8

First Mohican 7/8

Modem 7/8


Conclusion


Of the four that matched with all but one of the trends, THE CASHEL MAN appeals most. He only falls short due to not being trained by a national hunt handler and arrives here 3lb well-in as he’s due to go up to a mark of 92 thanks to his solid second in the Cesarewitch Trial three weeks ago. The four-year-old represents an age group with a good recent record and looks to have a plum draw in 8. He has proven steadily progressive throughout his career although has been without a win this season, albeit in some pretty hot handicaps, and has looked like he has been coming to the boil with decent in-frame efforts in his last two starts.

A pair of outsiders complete the shortlist with First Mohican appealing most of the duo. He just sneaks into the category with Hollie Doyle’s 5lb taking his weight down to 9st exactly and represents last year’s winning trainer Alan King.

Modem is the final one of the quartet to just narrowly miss out on a full set of the trends. Jessica Harrington’s charge remains on a career-high mark on the level, despite being found out in big field handicaps the last twice, although did perform with great credit when not beaten far in fourth in the Galway Hurdle back in July. He looks a relative outsider on paper but as we all know in the Cesarewitch, that doesn’t rule him out!


MY Advice


THE CASHEL MAN – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (Boylesports & bet365)


*
4.45 Newmarket – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race)


The furthest distance that 2yos run over in Britain is 1m2f and this Listed contest can often produce a nice stayer for next season.

Mark Johnston has saddled two winners in the last decade and is doubly represented in this year’s renewal by Bear Valley and Permian. The former looked to be improving at a rapid rate when winning a competitive Goodwood nursery in taking fashion back in July. He hasn’t really gone on from that in Group 3 company on his last two starts and needs the step up in trip and drop to Listed class to revive his fortunes. His stablemate has already won over an extended mile at Windsor and should have no trouble seeing out the extra two furlongs here. Having said that, his form isn’t as strong as Bear Valley and I slightly prefer him of the two.

The Godolphin team also have a pretty good record in the race and pin their hopes on Fly At Dawn who has won three of his four career starts to date. His only defeat saw him finish behind Sir Dancealot who was far from disgraced in Group 3 company a couple of weeks ago. Charlie Appleby’s colt had no problem seeing out the mile in a nursery on the Rowley Mile a couple of weeks ago and he looks worth a try over this trip. He will need to step forward again to figure here but that isn’t out of the question.

Roger Varian’s Defoe should have no trouble stepping up in trip having been staying on over a mile when second at Epsom a couple of weeks ago. The son of Dalakhani isn’t exactly flashy and on the bare form he has plenty on his plate here. However, his connections have a number of nice horses in their care and it would be no surprise if this 1m2f trip brings about further improvement from him.

There are a couple of maidens who take the step into Listed company including Genetics who got off the mark at the second time of asking at Newbury last time. His pedigree suggests that middle distance races are likely to be his forte and his rider was very keen on him after riding him last time. Hugo Palmer’s Star Archer may have taken three goes to get off the mark but bumped into two smart rivals on his first two starts and won with plenty in hand at Haydock last time. There were no signs of him stopping over a mile on that occasion and it may be that this trip unlocks further potential in the colt.

Like any race in Britain, any runner from the Aidan O’Brien stable is worth a second look and he brings Wings Of Eagles over for this race. The Pour Moi colt seemed to appreciate the step up in trip when winning over 8.5f at Killarney in August. It is hard to know what he achieved in terms of form on that occasion but he certainly shaped like a stayer despite being very green. He should be able to step forward with that experience under his belt and it is hard to see him being given the number of suitable candidates at the yard’s disposal.

However, I think that John Gosden may hold the key to this race and whilst Cunco had a lofty reputation in the early part of the season, his last few performances have dented that to a degree. He seemed to be outstayed in soft ground at Haydock last time which is a bit of a concern stepping up in trip especially as he has been keen in the past. With that in mind I am going to side with CORONET who won with more in hand than the half-length winning margin suggested at Leicester. The filly quickened up smartly to gain a good lead but just had a look around in the closing stages and was pushed out to win. She should have learnt plenty from that run and with her half-brothers Midas Touch and Streetcar To Stars having stayed well, this trip should be fine for her. A filly took this race last year and they look to have a leading chance of taking the prize this time around.


MY Advice


CORONET – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Paddy Power)




**
5.20 Newmarket – Godolphin Stud And Stable Staff Awards Darley Stakes (Group 3)



Our final race of the day is over the Cambridgeshire trip of 1m1f so the best place to start is with the runner-up from that race Carry On Deryck who found only Spark Plug too good on the day. The four-year-old is probably bound for Meydan this winter as he won there last year but he ran well with a big weight on his back a couple of weeks ago and with an official mark of 109, he looks worth a crack at Group company. As discussed he has form at the track and if he can repeat his Cambridgeshire run then he shouldn’t be too far away.

Another four-year-old stepping out on handicap company is Muffri’ha who had plenty in hand on her rivals when winning here last weekend. She found it hard going in Listed company two starts ago but her jockey believes that she likes to make the running and the switch of tactics seemed to do the trick last week. That success under top weight needs marking up a bit and if she handles this extra furlong, then she could prove tough to pass.

David O’Meara’s Custom Cut isn’t likely to be too far away from the pace and on the pick of his form, he would have a leading chance in this race. His last win was a Group 2 last September but he has acquitted himself well in Group company since then, including when second to Awtaad at Leopardstown last month. His latest effort in the Joel Stakes was a disappointing one but this looks an easier assignment and if he bounces back to form, he would probably be the one to beat.

However, there are a few three-year-olds in the field and perhaps the most interesting of these is Group 1 winner Johannes Vermeer who hasn’t been seen since winning the Criterium International at Saint Cloud last November. He was thought by many to be one of the leading Derby hopes for Ballydoyle but clearly he has had his problems and he will need to be close to full fitness to win here. He doesn’t carry a penalty for that Group 1 success but the fitting of a tongue tie for the first time raises some alarm bells and on the balance of things, I think he is worth taking on.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Abdon also shouldn’t be too far away and he probably just got bogged down in the soft ground at Ayr when we last saw him. I know he won on soft at Newbury but that was over a mile and I think the 1m2f on soft ground just stretched his stamina on this occasion. He should appreciate the return to a faster surface and the intermediate trip could prove perfect for him. Having said that, he will need to find a good deal of improvement on what he has done so far to win at this level.#

Instead, I am going to side with ANCIENT HISTORY who has been brought along slowly by his trainer Andre Fabre and has now won two of his last three starts. His latest win at Maissons-Lafitte saw him win with a bit in hand, despite only winning by a neck at the line. That was over 1m2f but he never settled and you get the impression that when he does learn to settle, he will improve a lot. The way that races are run over here in contrast to France should suit him better and hopefully stop him being so exuberant in the early part of the race. As with the filly yesterday any runner that Fabre sends over needs respecting and with just the eight runners here, at 7/1 he looks a solid each-way bet.



MY Advice



ANCIENT HISTORY – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, Paddy Powe

[Istabraq]

Good arguments as always bitchy, best of luck.

I've thrown so many darts today I would be too ashamed to list them !

Good luck all

[Istabraq]

Nice double bitchy....