Kerry National 2016

[mayo]

The Aintree and Irish Grand National winners finished third and first in this last year so a race worth watching in its own right and with an eye to future..


LISTOWEL Wednesday, 14th September 2016


(4:10) 258E Guinness Kerry National H'cap S'chase (Grade A) €103,250.00 ( 3m - 4yo+ )[MAX 18] FIRST FORFEIT: 08-SEP-16


NHFrm
4-121 1 Alelchi Inois (FR)(161) (WPMullins) - 11,10
1-241 2 Devils Bride(159) (WPMullins) - ........ 11,08
11252 3 Clarcam (FR)(156) (GElliott) - ............ 11,05
u6f31 4 Ballycasey(155) (WPMullins) - . ......... 11,04
31251 5 Lord Scoundrel(155) (GElliott) - . ...... 11,04
0-005 6 Three Kingdoms(147) (DKWeld) - .... 10,10
p-410 7 Rogue Angel(144) (MFMorris) - . ....... 10,07
35f05 8 First Lieutenant(143) (MFMorris) - . .. 10,06
1-522 9 Noble Emperor(143) (AJMartin) - . .... 10,06
-05p5 10 Thunder And Roses(143)(MFMorris) - . .............. 10,06
-3211 11 Sandymount Duke(139)(MrsJHarrington) - . ..... 10,02
33-56 12 Shadow Catcher (GB)(138) (GElliott) 10,01
114u2 13 Tiger Roll(138) (GElliott) - . ................ 10,01
-19-1 14 Cara's Oscar(136) (CAMurphy) - . ...... 9,13
4f-up 15 Gas Line Boy(135) (IWilliams (inGB)) - ........................... 9,12
p-710 16 Stellar Notion(135) (Hde Bromhead) .. 9,12
p1-21 17 Elegant Statesman(133) (HdeBromhead) - . ............... 9,10
034b4 18 Folsom Blue(133) (MFMorris) - .......... 9,10
-4831 19 Realt Mor(133) (GElliott) - ................... 9,10
70002 20 Killer Crow(132) (GElliott) - . ............... 9,09
-0fp5 21 Mad Brian(132) (MrsGCallaghan) - . ... 9,09
-0291 22 Black Benny(131) (JPBroderick) - . .... 9,08
61423 23 Aranhill Chief(130) (SJMahon) - . ....... 9,07
155-4 24 Shesaportrait(130) (PNeville) - . ......... 9,07
22836 25 Your Busy(127) (JANash) - . ............... 9,04
-6246 26 Phil's Magic(125) (Ms.SHughes) - . .... 9,02
-4612 27 Rightville Boy(124) (PNeville) - . ........ 9,01
40461 28 Wrath Of Titans(124) (GElliott) - . ....... 9,01
14-25 29 Aurora Bell(123) (TCooper) - . ............ 9,00
79226 30 Sir Abbot(123) (RTyner) - ................... 9,00
51112 31 King's Wharf(122) (WPMullins) - . ...... 8,13
23412 32 Kylecrue(122) (JPRyan) - ................... 8,13
f3-14 33 As De Pique(120) (GCromwell) - ........ 8,11
u1311 34 Heist(119) (PGriffin) - . ......................... 8,10
f2-11 35 Old Castletown(119) (TMWalsh) - . .... 8,10
2f4/- 36 Thomond(116) (NMeade) - ................. 8,07

[Istabraq]

Yep. good race, I wonder how many Giggs in there !
Fitness must be taken on trust for many of these, one that I'd be interested in is Folsom Blue, ran a cracker in the Irish National and was going well when brought down in Scottish National two weeks later, will pop up in a big race one day and may be that day is this one.....

[mayo]

Yep. good race, I wonder how many Giggs in there !
Fitness must be taken on trust for many of these, one that I'd be interested in is Folsom Blue, ran a cracker in the Irish National and was going well when brought down in Scottish National two weeks later, will pop up in a big race one day and may be that day is this one.....

Has a cracking weight. Sandymount Duke the one that caught my eye.

[mayo]

Cooper jocked up on Folsom Blue gets on on 10 1.

[Kevloaf]

1/3 of the field for Giggi - First Lieutenant to come 2nd is my fancy. Folsom Blue I can't see out of the frame either (bold shout ). Wouldn't back Balleycasey over this trip, fell off the cliff with him years ago. Think Lord Scoundrel has had his big win already and won't win again for a while. Don't think Tom Scu is good enough to get Gas Line Boy in to the winners enclosure on a track he doesn't know (more thought than proof). Clarclam and Killer Crow need shorter to win...

[Old Vic]

Small bet on she's a portrait- fifth last year and same rating - hoping might stay a better better on year down the line.keep an eye on reserves if they get in.

[Istabraq]

Keep missing price on Folsom Blue and horse keeps getting shorter.....

[Kevloaf]

Skybet are 5 places.

[mayo]

The actual bottom Weight wins again

[Istabraq]

I didn't check trends on race (still haven't) but it seems weight is key and fitness too, the first two had been out recently no idea about the 3rd/4th....

[mayo]

Ben Aiken nailed it

http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/ntf-2016-kerry-national-analysis-the-dosage-trends-assault/

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 11)

KILLER CROW – 11/11

ARANHILL CHIEF – 11/11

WRATH OF TITANS – 11/11

RIGHTVILLE BOY – 10/11

SHADOW CATCHER – 10/11



Conclusion/Selection(s)

KILLER CROW (G Elliott) – This 7yo is still unexposed over 3 miles over fences. He’s been tried over the Irish National trip of 3m5f twice and although going well for a long time both times he did ultimately finish running on empty. This bare 3m on a flat track, however, should be well within range and there is no reason he shouldn’t last home. Heavy ground suits him (form of 112), he has strong June-Sept form (1022), 3 of his 4 wins have come left-handed and he’s at home on flat tracks (31120). The excellent Jack Kennedy gets the leg-up and he’ll be able to coax him home and strike late.

WRATH OF TITANS (G Elliott) – This one has been fairly highly tried in his chase career to date and although he’s not won since chase debut there have been flashes of promise, specifically when running in the G1 Novice at Leopardstown over Xmas. He ended up well beaten that day but he was bang there until 2 out and the runs plenty better than the bare form suggests. He’s still unexposed in this type of race, comes here off a confidence boosting win over hurdles and rates as an interesting outsider on an eye-catching mark.

RIGHTVILLE BOY (P Neville) – Ran a fine race behind Ballycassey two starts back and will be right at home on the ground here (3 of his 4 wins have come when Heavy in the description). He handles large fields well (3128162003 in 12-18 runner fields) and is worth a flyer at lofty odds.


pity I didnt see it before the race