Yorks Ebor Meeting Day 4 - 20/8/2016

[bitchy]

1.45 York – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap)


In yet another competitive middle-distance handicap, the three-year-olds look to have an advantage given they’re receiving an 8lb weight allowance, but when you look at the past nine runnings of the race, no three-year-old has taken advantage of that allowance yet. Scarlet Dragon, and the Mark Johnston-trained pair of Ode To Evening and Montsarrat all fall into this category – the former was just behind Stargazer at Goodwood and has been raised 2lbs as a result, Ode To Evening has been running very well recently, but looked held off a mark of 102 at Haydock last time out and could have done his winning for now and Montsarrat is a conundrum that looks like he’ll win a decent race like this soon if connections can figure out the right trip for him, but whose inexperience could cost him here. Unfortunately Stargazer was declared a non-runner on Friday morning as he was the one three-year-old that stood out to me and could have bucked that trend.

From the older contingent, Awake My Soul appeals as the type to run well here after coming slowly down the weights in the past 12 months. He’s now running from a mark of 96, which he’s run well off the last twice – a close fourth and third at York and Newmarket – and he seems to be coming to form now. The switch of stable from David O’Meara to Tom Tate is an interesting move and he could well run a big race at a track he’s always gone well at. He’s 25/1 at the time of writing and, even though he hasn’t won for the best part of two years, could be a decent each-way bet as he’ll handle any ground and has plenty of experience of this kind of contest.

Four-year-olds have won this race six times in the last nine years and it is from this age group that I think there’s some decent value and big contenders to be found. Frankie Dettori’s services have been enlisted by Ed Dunlop for his gelding Dark Red, who went on a streak of three straight wins to start this season before finishing fourth in a competitive contest at Epsom back in June. The Dark Angel gelding has had a break since to freshen him up, so he could be spot on for this. He’ll enjoy a bit of cut in the ground, so will have no issues if the heavens open but after going up 20lbs from the start of the season, it could be that with a mark of 95, the handicapper finally has him where he wants him.

Another who’s had a very good season so far is the Tim Easterby-trained Snoano, who’s versatile in terms of ground and certainly stays this extended mile and a quarter very well. He won his only start here at York over a mile and a half, so clearly enjoys the track, and a strongly-run race over slightly shorter should be spot on for this son of Nayef. He was a good sixth at Goodwood, about three lengths in front of Erik The Red, and off the same terms, should be able to confirm the form unless the nine runs he’s already had this season begin to catch up with him, however he’s another that might well be in the grip of the handicapper.

Luca Cumani’s stable has finally found some form this season and his well-bred Fallen For A Star looks to have a chance here if he can once again settle well under Jamie Spencer. He’s had problems with being too keen in his races and a hood seems to have helped, as well as a change of tactics to make sure he gets all the cover possible from a held-up position, so he’s finally beginning to realise some of the potential in his excellent pedigree. Being by Sea The Stars, this trip should be perfect for him, but the main worry is the ground – he’s never raced on anything softer than good to firm on turf and even though he’s run well on the all-weather, there’s no way of knowing whether a rain-softened surface will be ok for him. A mark of 91 is reasonable, though and he could enjoy this big field and likely fast pace, so don’t count him out, even if the rain comes.

One who won’t mind either fast or slow ground is Ralph Beckett’s MASTER OF IRONY, who’s won over a mile and a quarter on good to firm and over a mile on soft. His win at Windsor off a mark of 84 was an extremely good performance, blowing away Croquembouche and Passover, who hasn’t finished anywhere worse than third in his next four runs after that. He’s up to a mark of 91 now and while the rise of 7lbs might seem harsh, I don’t think it contributed to his disappointing showing at Sandown Park last time out. He’s a horse that needs to be switched off and after that last race, Oisin Murphy reported that he’s been temperamental and sulked the whole way round, so I think a line can be put through that run. The son of Makfi has plenty of ability and will enjoy the nature of this big field and this track – a long bend before a long straight, keeping him interested early on before allowing him to creep into the race. He was sixth in a handicap over a mile at this meeting last year behind My Dream Boat, now a Group 1 winner, and looked as if this extra two furlongs should suit. He’s been off for around two months, so should be well prepared and tuned-up for a race that could well have been targeted by connections and I think he’ll run well at quite a big price.


MY Advice


MASTER OF IRONY – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (SkyBet)



2.15 York – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)


Godolphin have enjoyed a great deal of success in the Strensall Stakes in recent years having won five of the last nine renewals and that fine run looks set to continue here with SCOTTISH the one to beat. The son of Teofilo showed a high level of form last season when finishing runner-up in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot and the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood before ending his campaign with a deserved victory in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr. Since being purchased by Godolphin and switched to Charlie Appleby over the winter, the now four-year-old has carried on where he left off and looked a real force when cruising to victory in the Listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury last month. His last run in the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes was a tad disappointing but he was merely outstayed over an extended 1m2f by Royal Artillery (who is a beast about double his size) and drops back down to 1m1f here which looks like it should be perfect for him. He still holds entries in both the Irish Champion Stakes and Champion Stakes which suggests that connections feel that he is capable of a step up and this could be the ideal stepping stone on route.

His closest rival could come in the shape of the sole three-year-old in the field, Diploma, who gets weight all round. Sir Michael Stoute’s filly has been highly progressive this campaign and was an impressive winner of the Listed Lyric Stakes over an extended 1m2f last time. That form has been franked with the runner-up Fireglow scoring at Listed level subsequently and she remains on a steep upward curve. Although she is clearly going the right way, a drop in trip wouldn’t look as though it would particularly suit her but she does get in here on favourable terms and is a leading contender.

David O’Meara has landed the last two renewals of this contest and is represented here by 2014 winner Custom Cut. The seven-year-old has finished in the frame on four of his five starts this campaign and although he remains fairly consistent at this sort of level, he tends to come up short and may prefer a bit of cut in the ground nowadays. He was well fancied when fourth in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes last Thursday though and arrives here with a shout.

Countermeasure rates an interesting participant having ran a stormer to finish fourth in the Eclipse despite acting as a pacemaker for Time Test. He again filled the same role in the Group 2 York Stakes and wasn’t beaten all that far so could prove to be a different proposition now being ridden with his best interests at heart. It would be difficult to follow him with much confidence though as a nine-race maiden who finished second off a mark of 79 in a Class 3 handicap at Kempton back in June.

The highest rated horse in the field is Yorker representing William Haggas, who bagged the Strensall five years ago with Green Destiny. The seven-year-old gelding is a three-time Grade 1 winner in his native South Africa but makes his debut in Britain here having not been seen on a racecourse since June 2014. It remains to be seen how his form translates and indeed how much ability he retains and a watching brief can only be advised with all things taken into account.

Both Tullius and Air Pilot have the unenviable task of conceding weight all round following their Group 3 victories earlier in the campaign and the quick ground on offer here will likely put paid to their chances.


MY Advice


SCOTTISH – 1.5pts win @ 9/2 (Boylesports)

[bitchy]

2.50 York – Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap)


Seen as the ‘3yos Ebor’ the Melrose proves just as competitive and in some cases more of a puzzle with many of the field stepping up to 1m6f for the very first time. Indeed, Injam is the only runner in the 13-strong field to have won over the distance before and that came in a three-runner soft-ground maiden at Haydock.

The best way of approaching the unknown is to look for an improver who has shown their best work at the finish over 1m4f and SHRAAOH fits particularly nicely into that category. The son of Sea The Stars has been quietly progressive since making his debut at Newmarket’s Craven meeting in April and bar a below-par effort in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot (well fancied but found the soft ground to be against him), he has continued on an upward curve. He put in a very nice performance when only going down by a short head behind Dal Harraild in a hot 1m4f handicap at Glorious Goodwood, finishing with a strong late burst that really caught the eye. He has only gone up 2lb for that run which seems very fair and the extra two furlongs on offer here should prove ideal.

His biggest challenge could come from the Ballydoyle duo in the line-up, headed by Seamie Heffernan’s mount Kellstorm. The Galileo colt is a brother to this year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner Order of St George so the step up to 1m6f promises to suit. He has already shown a decent level of form and refreshed from a break (not seen since early May), he could be revved up and ready to go. The ground is a bit of an unknown as the quickest he has raced on is good but his illustrious older brother has proven to be a versatile sort and he could well follow suit.

His stablemate Unicorn has the burden of conceding weight all round and will have no easy task with this being his first run of the season. He was a runaway winner of a Leopardstown maiden a year ago before disappointing in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes and hasn’t been seen since. He is embarking on a massive step up in trip having only ran up to a mile but as a brother to connections’ St Leger runner-up Bondi Beach, he could well thrive over this sort of trip. He does look to be the stable second string on jockey bookings though.

Regal Monarch has had a completely different path having only made his debut last November and has already graced the track seven times this campaign. He hasn’t finished out of the first three this year and now finds himself on a 28lb higher mark than when second in a Class 5 Doncaster handicap back in April. He has been purchased by Highclere to continue his racing in Australia so Mark Johnston is clearly trying to strike while the iron is still hot having landed a Pontefract handicap with the Notnowcato gelding on Sunday. He has a 6lb penalty to contend with but is clearly thriving at present and sluiced up over 1m5f at Newmarket three starts back so has to enter consideration.


MY Advice


SHRAAOH – 1.5pts win @ 7/2 (SkyBet, BetVictor)




3.25 York – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)

This looks a vintage renewal of the Gimcrack with Blue Point likely to be the favourite, having come a close second to Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last time. He lost nothing in defeat that day but it felt like something of an anti-climax compared the eleven length demolition of his rivals at Doncaster the time before. He just wasn’t streetwise enough on that occasion to get the job done but Mehmas is not here and he looks justified in his position at the head of the market.

However, there are a number of very smart performers in the field including William Haggas’ Mubtasim who has won his first two starts in good fashion and he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. He beat a pretty good marker in Town Charter at Haydock earlier this month and his trainer has taken this race twice in the last six years.

Aidan O’Brien’s Intelligence Cross must also come into the mix having finished second to Mehmas in the July Stakes at Newmarket. He was a shade disappointing on the face of it at Goodwood last time but he may have played his cards a little early there and ridden with more restraint, I think he will be shown in a better light.

However, I the one I like most is MOKARRIS who couldn’t have been more impressive when winning the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury last time. Simon Crisford’s colt was well-backed through the day and having travelled smoothly throughout under Paul Hanagan, he quickened up clear under hands and heels to win by two and three-quarter lengths. The form of that race has been franked with the fifth home Miss Infinity winning a Listed race next time and he looks a colt on the up. His only disappointing effort saw him well-beaten in the Coventry on slow ground and although there is rain forecast, I don’t think it will be enough to blunt his turn of foot. This is clearly another step up on what he has done so far but he looks entitled to take his chance and I’m expecting a big run.

Of the rest, one who could be overpriced is Kevin Ryan’s Dream Of Dreams who has always been held in high-regard by the stable. He was well-backed in the Railway Stakes at the Curragh last time but he missed the break and having been ridden to get to the front, he just didn’t have anything left inside the final furlong. He is capable of better than that with the yard having already caused one upset this week, I think 12/1 is a very big price.


MY Advice


MOKARRIS – 1pt win @ 9/2 (SkyBet)

Dream Of Dreams – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)



4.00 York – Betfred Ebor (HANDICAP)


This race has proved a real graveyard for older contenders with only three horses older than five being able to land the Ebor since the legendary Sea Pigeon scored as a nine-year-old in 1979. All three have done so in the last eleven years but even so, this is a particularly strong negative statistic. There are several runners in today’s field aged six or above including the likes of Ivan Grozny, Quick Jack and Elidor.

Usually in races such as this, being drawn on the rail is an advantage but that hasn’t proved the case in the Betfred Ebor. Runners drawn low have been at an overwhelming disadvantage in recent years with only three of the last ten winners scoring from stall 14 or lower. With victory in the Betfred Ebor being held in such high esteem, those jockeys drawn low have shown a tendency to break far too quickly from the stalls in order to take advantage of their draw, but only end up setting a furious early pace in order to maintain their position. These early exertions clearly take their toll and play right into the hands of those drawn wide.

The weights in the Betfred Ebor are fairly well compressed these days, making this trend fairly a minor one, but it must be noted that only four of the last 25 winners successfully shouldered more than 9st 3lbs. In such a competitive handicap where stamina is at an absolute premium, every pound matters, and the chances of the seven in the field who are carrying the desired weight must be increased.
The 2011 25/1 winner Moyenne Corniche went against a well-established trend, notably that he had finished outside of the first four on his most recent start. This is a stat that has accounted for seven of the last ten winners, so it does not look a race in which it is best to pin your hopes on a horse returning to form here.

We can take this trend one step further when you consider that 8 of the last 10 winners had achieved a top two finish on either or both of their two latest starts.

Whichever way you look at it, favourites do not fare well in the Betfred Ebor – there have only been two winning favourites since 1998, and there have been four winners in the last decade priced no shorter than 20/1. Therefore the best advice, other than to oppose the favourite, is to back your selection regardless of the starting price.


Shortlist

HEARTBREAK CITY – 5/7

Top Tug – 5/7

Antiquarium – 4/7

Conclusion


In an ultra-competitive renewal of the race, all of our runners miss at least two of the trends but the one who gets the narrow vote is HEARTBREAK CITY. Tony Martin’s six-year-old won on his penultimate start on the flat but following a flop in the Chester Cup, he has since won twice over hurdles with a bit to spare. The handicapper has taken no chances with his mark by putting him up a lot but Adam McNamara takes a useful 5lb off his back. His trainer is adept at getting horses primed for these big days and it would be no surprise to see him go close.

Top Tug narrowly misses out on the top spot having finished a close third over 1m4f here in July. This will be his first go at a trip further than 1m4f but he seems to like it here so it is easy to see why connections were tempted. He is drawn on the inside in stall 2 so should be able to get a good position and may be able to outrun his sizeable odds.

The final member of the shortlist is the Northumberland Plate winner Antiquarium who relished the step up in trip at Newcastle. He has plenty of weight on his back as he carries 9st 8lb but he hasn’t had too much racing so there may be more improvement to come. He ran well to finish fifth over course and distance in the Melrose last year and he should be in the shake-up.

MY Advice


HEARTBREAK CITY – 0.5pt e/w @ 11/1 (bet365)

[bitchy]

4.35 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race)


Some intriguing two-year-olds take their place in this Listed contest, none more so that Mark Johnston’s twice-raced Sutter County, who looks all speed and should be well-suited to the sharp five furlong trip here at York. However, a huge note of caution with this horse – if the rain materialises and the ground is good to soft or worse, I think he’ll be declared a non-runner. He wasn’t in love with the ground when he defeated the useful Dream Of Dreams at Newmarket last time out, just lasting home after bursting clear with a furlong to go, and I doubt connections will subject him to that again, especially in this stronger race. If the ground is quick, though, he’ll have a great chance of making it three from three in his career.

Final Reckoning joins him in currently sitting at the top of the market after winning a good quality Nursery Handicap at Goodwood last time out. Rusumaat, the second that day, boosted the form when finishing second here earlier this week, so this is clearly a horse with lots of ability and speed. This drop back to the minimum five furlongs shouldn’t be a problem, especially given he’s fine with cut in the ground (won already on good to soft) and his previous run at the track over six furlongs suggested he might benefit from going back to five. He’s got a live chance in an open race.

Carrying a 3lb penalty for winning a Listed race last time out, Hugo Palmer’s Afandem holds strong claims of making it two Listed contests on the bounce. He deals with ease in the ground fine and looks as if the drop to five furlongs is ideal for his keen-going style of racing. The Listed race he won in France may not have been the strongest affair but he did it well and added to his close third to Yalta in a Novice race at Goodwood while trying to give that smart rival 6lbs and an easy defeat of Rusumaat on his racecourse debut, he’s got some very good form in the book already. However, there hasn’t been a penalised winner of this in the past nine runnings and his tendency to fail to settle is a big worry.

Frankie Dettori won the race on My Propeller back in 2011 and this year he rides the Tom Dascombe-trained BIG TIME BABY, who has shown plenty of speed and ability in his four starts to date, but is another that looks as if he needs to learn to settle a bit better to fulfil his potential. He’s been keen in both of his attempts at Group level in his short career so far, leading for much of the race before weakening into seventh and fifth respectively in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Molecomb Stakes at the Qatar Goodwood Festival, but if he can keep his enthusiasm under wraps here, he could have a great chance. Soft ground didn’t seem to be the excuse for his weakening at Ascot, he travelled really well through the majority of the race, so any rain shouldn’t be too much of a problem and at around 8/1, he could be much too big a price.


MY Advice


BIG TIME BABY – 1pt win @ 10/1 (bet365)



5.05 York – Betfred Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)


The curtain comes down on the Ebor meeting with this five furlongs sprint for the apprentice jockeys and most of the young stars in the weighing room are taking part.

Adam McNamara has enjoyed a fine first season in England and he gets aboard Celebration who was a close fourth at Goodwood last time. He was only collared close home last time so the 3lb off his back should help and the cheekpieces which were left off last time are back on.

David O’Meara’s Lathom is another who experiments with the headgear as he wears a visor for the first time on Saturday. The gelding won the Weatherbys Super Sprint last year and has shown signs of promise this season but just hasn’t been quite finishing his races off, so it isn’t a great surprise that the visor is reached for in a bid to find further improvement.

Kevin Ryan saddles Laughton who has been in fine form of late, winning two of his last four starts, including a valuable race at Goodwood a few weeks ago. He has only been put up 4lb for that effort and he must be high on any shortlist. His jockey Kevin Stott spent most of last season in Newmarket but is now back with Kevin Ryan and he is one of the most experienced jockeys in this field. He is likely to be in the shake-up if continuing his fine run of form.

However Tim Easterby looks to have a strong hand here with three runners in East Street Revue, Midnight Malibu and Excessable. The latter two make most appeal and Midnight Malibu comes here on the back of consecutive victories at Chester and Ascot. He actually finished ahead of Laughton at Chester in June and although Laughton gets a pull in the weights, there doesn’t look to be much between them.

The one I like most of those is EXCESSABLE who has always been well thought of by connections but he has proved a bit disappointing since his 2yo days. It has taken him a while to come down the handicap but he managed to get his head in front off a mark of 78 last time and having gone up just 4lb I think he can do a bit of winning yet. Nathan Evans has been booked to ride and he has already shown himself to be a very good rider when winning on Hoof It at Goodwood and also an astute tactician. His 3lb claim negates most of the rise from the handicapper and having tasted success last time, I fancy he will go close to going in again here.


MY Advice


EXCESSABLE – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (Coral)

[Faugheen_Machine]

Antiquarium and Oriental Fox in the Ebor for me. Master Blue eyes and shrooah my only other bets.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Great work Bitchy - 3 nice priced winners so far.