Galway Festival

[Istabraq]

Any interest over there fellas ?
I saw Jim Culloty managed to find a winner there in the last tonight.

The Plate is on Wednesday, Road to Riches fav but on this bouncing ground I can't see why Ballycasey is 25/1, unless he's not an intended runner ?
The all important NRNB is key for me before I invest.

Statto - any strong trends ?
bitchy - any in depth preview ?

[Morning Glory]

I'll be having a bet in the plate and the hurdle.

Culotty is going a lot better these times. Also seems to have made his peace with Davy Russell.

[racecaller13]

The Guinness Galway Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth day of the Galway Festival, Thursday 28th July. A Grade A Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles, it is always highly competitive and in recent years it has paid to look for a less exposed type that had won recently over hurdles.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-3-12

5yo: 1-7-41

6yo: 6-9-58

7yo: 3-4-45

8yo: 0-4-28

9yo: 0-1-6

10yo+: 0-2-9

9 of last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 7-12-103

Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 3-18-96

Horses carrying 10-6+ have won 7 of the last 10 runnings despite only representing slightly over half of the total runners.

Top Weight: 6P0028707600 (0-1-12)

Horses carrying a penalty (1-2-8) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 8 runners.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 131 or higher: 6-15-113

Horses rated 120 to 130: 5-12-78

Horses rated 119 or less: 0-3-12

The shape of the ratings for this race has changed in recent years, with higher rated horses contesting the race, so the figures over past 10 years have less relevance.

Over past 6 years:

Horses rated 135 or higher: 5-12-71

Horses rated 134 or lower: 1-6-48

Horses officially rated 135+ have won 5 of last 6 and filled 17 of 24 places in last 6 runnings.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts (1 exception had placed in County Hurdle on only hurdles start in previous 12 months and other had won last 2 flat starts)

6 of 10 winners had their previous start on the flat

6 of 10 winners won last time out (2 flat, 4 over hurdles)

10 of 10 winners posted their career high hurdles RPR on one of last 3 starts

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 126+ on last hurdles start (9 of last 10 posted RPR of 133+ in one or both of last 2 runs)

10 of 10 winners had had 6 to 15 previous hurdle starts

8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (2 exceptions ran in 10 or 11)

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over hurdles

7 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 11K+ (1 exception had placed in handicap hurdles worth over £45+ on last 2 hurdles starts)



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Quick Jack): 029F (0-1-4)

Killarney Grand Live Music Venue Handicap Hurdle winner (Time For Mabel): 34 (0-2-2)

Ladbrokes Ireland H“cap H“dle winner (Ancient Sands): 03045 (0-2-5)

Kilashee Handicap Hurdle winner (Temp Mac): 300 (0-1-3)

Bellewstown Golf Course Hurdle winner (Bamako Moriviere): 5 (0-0-1)

County Hurdle winner (Superb Story): 80 (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in County Hurdle, finishing 03

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Deacy Gilligan Novice Hurdle, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in a 2m Cork novice hurdle the previous October



Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners led or tracked leaders

3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division

1 of 10 winners were held up in rear



Trainers

Tony Martin (2-3-11) has won the past 2 runnings with Thomas Edison & Quick Jack, both of whom had run in the County Hurdle earlier that year.

John Kiely (1-0-2) won this in 2008 with Indian Pace.

Gordon Elliot (0-6-15) has seen 6 of his 15 runners make the places, including the runner-up in 2012, 2013 & 2014 and also the 3rd in 2011 & 2010.

Willie Mullins (0-5-19) has gained 5 places (including 3rd & 4th in 2013 and 2nd in 2015) from his 19 runners since 2006.

Eddie O’Grady (0-2-7) has saddled a couple of placed finishers in past 10 runnings.

Shark Hanlon (0-1-2), Eddie Harty (0-1-4), Thomas Mullins (0-1-6), Jessica Harrington (0-1-6) and Dermot Weld (0-1-11) have each managed 1 placed finisher since 2006.

Noel Meade (0-0-10) won this in 2005 with More Rainbows but his 10 runners since have all been unplaced.

British based trainers (1-1-20) have gained 1 win & 1 place from their 20 runners.



Price

8 of last 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter while the other 2 were priced 20/1.

Favourites (2-5-10) have won twice in past 10 years giving a zero level stakes return.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 or 7

- Carrying 10-6+

- Officially rated 135 to 147

- Won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts

- Posted a career high RPR of 133+ in one or all of last 3 hurdles starts

- Won or placed on last hurdles start (posting an RPR of 125+)

- Run in past 40 days

- Had prep run on flat last time (or finished in first 3 over hurdles)

- Previously run in 7 to 15 hurdles races (winning 1 to 4)

- Has run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)

- Finished in first 2 in Deacy Gilligan Novice Hurdle and/or Grimes Hurdle

- Contested the 2016 County Hurdle

- Ran well in a Curragh handicap on the flat in 2015

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Tony Martin or Gordon Elliot

[racecaller13]

TheTote.com Galway Plate is the highlight of the 7-day Galway Festival which kicks off on Monday 25th July. This Grade A Handicap Chase, which takes place on Wednesday 27th July, is run over 2M 6F and it is always a thoroughly competitive contest that never fails to excite. In recent years, the key race that has provided clues for this has been the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase at the Punchestown Festival.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-1

5yo: 0-0-2

6yo: 1-1-15

7yo: 6-12-51

8yo: 1-7-59

9yo: 1-5-46

10yo: 1-2-30

11yo+: 0-3-12

6 of 10 winners were aged 7

The one 6yo winner was a French-bred trained by Paul Nicholls.

There have only been 2 winners aged 10 in the last 20 years: Life Of A Lord (1996), who was winning the race for a second consecutive year and had won the Whitbread Gold Cup on previous start and Bob Lingo (2012) who had won a handicap chase at Fairyhouse Grand National meeting and placed in another at the Punchestown Festival on last 2 chase starts.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 0-5-43

Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 10-25-173

The last 10 winners carried less than 11 stone. The last winner to carry 11-0+ was Galway specialist Ansar)

Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in the past 15 years). However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.

Top Weight: 2740U45P00F0 (0-3-12)

Horses carrying a penalty: 0-0-8 have failed to make the places from 13 runners since 2000.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 144 or higher: 1-6-46

Horses rated 133 to 143: 6-16-93

Horses rated 132 or lower: 3-8-77

In the past 6 years horses rated 132 to 142 have won 5 of 6 and filled 20 of 24 places. Again trends on official ratings seem to be affected by ground with higher rated sorts doing better on faster ground.



Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners won 1 of their last 2 chase starts

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 132+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts (6 of last 8 posted RRP of 140+ on last completed chase start)

9 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (exception had not run over fences that year)

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 16 chases (7 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (exception ran in 8)

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exception had won 2)

8 of 10 winners were second season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chasers)

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Shanahan's Turn): 200 (0-1-3)

Florida Pearl Novice Chase winner (Shantou Flyer): 01 (1-0-2)

McSweeney Arms Hotel Killarney H“cap Chase winner (Cantlow): 32 (0-2-2)

Suir Valley Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): 0 (0-0-1) Clon 3 apr 2m4f

Paddy Powers Paddys Number A Millions EBF Novice Chase winner (Lord Scoundrel): 7 (0-0-1)

Munster National winner (Sadler's Risk): 65 (0-0-2) Lim 9 Oct

Guinness Harp Novice Chase winner (Sizing Platinum): F6 (0-0-2) Gal 31 Jul

Bet In-Play With Ladbrokes App Chase winner (Alelchi Inois): P0U (0-0-3)

Three.ie H'cap Chase winner (Bright New Dawn): 000 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners (4 of last 5) ran in the Aon Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 2P2F

2 of 10 winners ran in the Gunness Handicap Chase, finishing U3

2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing FP

2 of 10 winners ran in previous Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing P3

2 of 10 winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase, finishing P4

2 of 10 winners ran in Betdaq 50Euro in Free Bets Beginners Chase, finishing 61

6 of 10 winners (last 6) ran in a chase over 2M 4F-5F at that year's Punchestown Festival, finishing U23P2F



Trainers

Willie Mullins (1-5-21) trained Blazing Tempo to win the race in 2011 and also saddled a placed finisher in 2010, 2012, 2014 & 2015.

Noel Meade (1-3-15) won this in 2014 with Road To Riches.

Henry De Bromhead (1-1-6) trained the 1st & 3rd in 2015.

Dermot Weld (0-4-9) trained Ansar to win back to back runnings in 2004 & 2005. Since then, 4 of his 9 runners were placed.

Gordon Elliot (0-0-7) & Mouse Morris (0-0-5) have collectively seen their 12 runners all finish unplaced.

British-based trainers (1-1-20) have seen only 2 of their 20 runners make the frame in the past 10 years. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990.



Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners race prominently

4 of 10 winners were held up in midfield



Price

Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ SP’s varying quite a lot year on year, as in past 8 years there have been 3 winning favourites and 5 winners going off at odds of between 14/1 & 22/1.

Favourites (3-2-11) have won 3 of last 8 & show a level stakes profit of 3.25 over past 10 years.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- 7yos do well

- Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up good to firm)

- Officially rated 132 to 142

- Won their last start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)

- Posted an RPR of 140+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts

- Contested a class 1 chase in 2016

- Second season chasers have a strong record

- Previously run in no more than 16 chases (ideally run in fewer than 10)

- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

- Ideally previously won a listed or graded chase

- Won over 2M 4F+

- Previously won at Galway Festival (or having first run at the Festival)

- Ran in a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 5F at the 2016 Punchestown Festival

- Finished in first 3 in Guinness or EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase

- Trained by Dermot Weld, Willie Mullins, Henry De Bromhead or Noel Meade

[Istabraq]

Perfect, thanks racecaller

[mayo]

retirement fund

Billy's Hope @ 10/1
Air Command @ 20/1
Magen's Moon @ 10/1
Princess Aloof @ 33/1
Beau Satchel @ 7/1
Runmhar @ 20/1
Heinz, 57 bets

[mayo]

Only a matter of time until Mullins or Elliott win the hurdle.

Elliott has them lined up just outside the cut so will wait for decs.

Paddy Power taking no chances with Ballycasey in the Plate - 12s !

[mato66]

hello all ive been reading the site for a while and especially around the festival so ive decided to join in i wont be a prolific poster but i hope to be a help not a hindrenceanyway hello..
ive backed one today
5.15 oathkeeper @9/4 this fella has won over further but does have a bit of toe so back to 2m is not a worry won easy lto and this is a lot tougher but im hopeful he,ll go close..best of luck to all who havea bet today

[mayo]

Ballycasey punted across the board.

Bits of money for its a gimme. small ew bet on him and home farm for me.

Heart not in it today.

[Old Vic]

hello all ive been reading the site for a while and especially around the festival so ive decided to join in i wont be a prolific poster but i hope to be a help not a hindrenceanyway hello..
ive backed one today
5.15 oathkeeper @9/4 this fella has won over further but does have a bit of toe so back to 2m is not a worry won easy lto and this is a lot tougher but im hopeful he,ll go close..best of luck to all who havea bet today

Welcome Mato66.

Not sure how Ruby won that race.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Welcome aboard Mato.

[mato66]

Welcome Mato66.

Not sure how Ruby won that race.

neither am i? thanks for the welcome..

[bitchy]

Hello Matto ,good to see you on board , mate

[Istabraq]

Always good to get more views/posters, look forward to reading your thoughts mato

[Istabraq]

I am with Ballycasey at 14s, not quite the 25s I thought I'd get but as soon as Ruby chose the horse his price was only ever going one way.
If the rain stays away he'll go very well I think.....