The Qatar Goodwood Festival - 26 - 30 July 2016

[bitchy]

The 'Glorious' Qatar Goodwood Festival DAY 4 OF 5
26/7/2016 ---30/7/2016



2.00 Goodwood – Betfred Glorious Stakes (Group 3)



Won last year by the only Qatari-trained horse to win a Group contest in England, Dubday, this year’s renewal of the Glorious Stakes looks a similarly open affair, with most of the field holding claims of some sort.

Mount Logan loves Goodwood and that can be a big factor in any race here, especially when that horse is 3 from 3 at the track, including a win over C&D in the Listed Tapster Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. He then went on to finish a well-beaten fourth in the Hardwicke Stakes, but the first two home in that race (Dartmouth, Highland Reel) went on to fill two of the first three places in the Group 1 King George at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, so it wasn’t a bad effort. He’s been very consistent over the past year or so and it’s difficult to see the race panning out without this son of New Approach being involved.

Another horse with a perfect Goodwood record (even though it is only 1 win from 1 run) is the Roger Charlton-trained Ayrad, who also comes into the race with a Listed win to his name this season, this time at Sandown where he defeated Spark Plug and GM Hopkins. Now obviously he’ll have to come on plenty for that as there’s some much better rivals in this, but it’s not beyond him to improve another few pounds. The worry with this horse is the trip – he does seem better over a mile and a quarter and even on this sharp track, the distance may well find him out in this better company.

Looking back to Royal Ascot, the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes could give us some clues. Run over this trip, the finish was fought out by Kinema, Elite Army and King’s Fete, with Ralph Beckett’s gelding eventually getting the better of the pair competing here in a controversial Stewards’ Enquiry. King’s Fete stayed on powerfully on the softer surface there and was only denied by the winner squeezing him and forcing Ryan Moore to switch out late on. The King’s Best gelding stayed on well again after that but could only finish third, so he has to go down as a very unlucky loser there. Back up in class for this Group 3 contest, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained five-year-old has plenty of experience of Goodwood, despite being lightly raced for his age, with three runs on the track, but despite running well, he’s never won here and it could be that at this stage of his career, he might just need a more testing track to show his best on as he stays so strongly. Even so, he’s certainly worth considering.

However, the second placed horse from that race, ELITE ARMY is the horse I want to be with here. I’m willing to forgive his poor effort in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’ Stakes at Newmarket last time out as he just didn’t seem to run to form there, even though it was a much better race and if you look at his Royal Ascot second (on softer ground than ideal), he had to carry a huge weight and arguably kicked for home too early, so did extremely well to finish where he did. He gave King’s Fete a pound that day and they race off level weights here, so the combination of that, the quicker ground and this sharper track could well help him to confirm form. The pace angle is interesting here too as Ayrad and Loving Things are the most likely to go off in front and give a good tow to the rest, so that should also help him to settle and all-things considered, if he bounces back from his last run, this lightly-raced five-year-old has certainly got plenty of potential to improve even further.

Speaking of bouncing back, Berkshire did just that when second to the non-runner in this, Scottish, in a Listed race at Newbury and looked like he was much closer to the classy form he showed as a two-year-old. He kept on well on the fast surface that day and visually, you could make a case for this trip to eke out more improvement from the well-regarded son of Mount Nelson. However, he has always been a big horse, a lengthener rather than a quickener whose strengths have been better illustrated on ground with a bit of ease in it, so in addition to him having to step up again on that last effort and having to prove his stamina, this sharp track and fast ground could also conspire against him.
A final one to mention is the only filly in the race, Loving Things, trained by Luca Cumani. She defeated Yarrow in the Listed Pontefract Castle Stakes in mid-June and a good run from that rival in the Lillie Langtry on Thursday would boost her claims here. The switch to prominent tactics and fast ground seemed to make a big difference to the filly and if she does the same again here, she can make use of her 3lb weight allowance to make an impact. However, she will have to have come on once again to hold off the likes of Mount Logan, King’s Fete and Elite Army in the closing stages.

MY Advice

ELITE ARMY – 1.5pts win @ 11/2 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)




2.35 Goodwood – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)


Godolphin should have a big say in things here with a quartet of runners from different trainers going to post. Emotionless is their most fancied representative and he looked a real gem when sluicing up in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last year. He bombed out completely in the Group 1 Dewhurst on his final start and although he had his excuses there, he has had his problems since and never managed to land a telling blow on his belated seasonal bow in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. That was a warm introduction in truth and this should prove a tad easier but I think he remains opposable at present.

Buratino has failed to live up to his billing as a three-year-old and it is a massive surprise that he has been stepped back up to a mile given he looked a distinct non-stayer in the Guineas. He has a similar profile to Cymric who promised great things when a narrow second to Ultra in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Things haven’t gone to plan for John Gosden’s colt since and although his runner-up effort behind Lumiere earlier in the month was an improvement in form, it remains a fair way below the standard required to get involved here.

As one of only three fillies in the field, Promising Run receives a handy 3lb allowance and boasts some fair form in the book having shaped encouragingly when fifth in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. She didn’t really trouble the principals in truth but still didn’t look out of place and this level is a much more realistic one. As a daughter of Hard Spun, she should be suited by the conditions underfoot here and a reproduction of the form shown when she landed the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes last September would see her go very close.

Nevertheless, Sir Michael Stoute looks to hold all the aces here and can take this with Hamdan Al Maktoum’s THIKRIYAAT. The gelding headed to Royal Ascot unbeaten and ran a blinder behins subsequent Sussex Stakes third Ribchester in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes. He still showed signs of inexperience there as he hung across the track but kept sticking his head out and eventually stayed on in eye-catching fashion. The step back up to a mile shouldn’t inconvenience him in the slightest and he rates the one to beat.

His stablemate Forge was only narrowly behind him in the Jersey and ran a good race himself. The soft ground at Ascot may have been against him but he didn’t really see the seven furlongs out there and didn’t put his best foot forward on the only other occasion that he has lined up over a mile. He still has the scope for improvement but I find it difficult to see him reversing form with the selecton on these terms.

MY Advice


THIKRIYAAT – 1pt win @ 3/1 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)




3.10 Goodwood – Betfred Mile (HANDICAP ]


The Betfred Mile is usually quite a rough race but even so it is one of those where the trends hold strong.

The most decisive factor in years gone by was that of the draw. In simple terms, if you were drawn high you couldn’t win as backed up by the fact that 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower. Laa Rayb and Wentworth both overturned that damning stat when winning in 2009 and 2013 respectively but on the whole it has always paid to follow the low numbers.

Another pretty reliable trend is regarding the winners age as 3yos and 4yos have won eight of the last 10 renewals. There was always the odd five and six-year-old thrown in for good measure but as a whole it always paid to concentrate on the age group mentioned. There are no three-year-olds in this year’s line-up so this group is represented by a septet of four-year-old runners.

Recent form has played a big part in deciding the winner of recent renewals and it is no surprise to learn that 7 of the last 10 winners came into the race having finished in the first five places last time. So there is little point looking for a horse that has been running below par but dropped to a handy mark as historically this isn’t the race for them. Of those towards the head of the market Azraff and Third Time Lucky both arrive here on the back of disappointing efforts last time.

There are a couple of other things to consider. 8 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 95 and 106 implying that those at the very top and bottom of the weights tend to struggle. This year, only two horses miss out on this score, the bottom weight Room Key, who rated 93 and the top weight Here Comes When who has an official rating of 108.

The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and it is important to note that seven of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting. Laa Rayb, Boom And Bust and Red Avenger aside, in recent times this has been a race for those towards the head of the market, so it is not a race in which taking a chance on one at a big price has been fruitful.

Shortlist

FRANKLIN D – 5/5

Azraff – 4/5

One Word More – 4/5


Conclusion


When taking all of our trends into account, only horses comes out with a perfect profile and that is FRANKLIN D who currently heads the market for this race. Michael Bell’s four-year-old carries a 3lb penalty for a wide margin success at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago and he looks to be ahead of the handicapper at present. He is drawn in the inside stall of 1 and he also has the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle. He looks to be heading the right way and in terms of the trends at least, he looks the one to beat.

There are a few runners who miss just one of the trends including Azraff whose only blip comes having finished seventh on his most recent racecourse outing. However, it is worth noting that run came over 1m2f and having failed to see out the trip on that occasion, he is of interest back down in trip. He won a valuable handicap over this trip at Newbury earlier in the season before finishing fourth in Royal Hunt Cup and he should be thereabouts at the business end of the race.

The final member on our shortlist is Tim Easterby’s One Word More who has been running into form, finishing third in competitive events at York on his last two starts. His rider dropped her whip last time at a crucial stage and having only been beaten three-quarters of a length, perhaps the result would have been different. He is usually held up which means he will need plenty of luck in running here, but he could run well for his astute stable.

MY Advice

FRANKLIN D – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Paddy Power)

[bitchy]

3.45 Goodwood – Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2)


Perennially a fast and furious affair, this year’s renewal of the King George Stakes looks to be as competitive as ever with well over half of the field having a realistic chance. The three-year-old fillies at the bottom of the weights will likely have their supporters and it’s difficult to knock Marsha on the back of her pair of Listed wins the last twice. She was always bred to be speedy being out of a Marlinka, a Listed winner over five furlongs as a juvenile., and showed that last season when finishing a decent third in a Listed contest at Dundalk as a two-year-old taking on her elders. She showed that she retained all of her ability when second in a valuable 6f Newmarket handicap on her seasonal bow and bar a below-par effort at in the Group 3 Ballyogan Stakes at the Curragh since, she has been in great heart. However, this is the first time that she will step up to this kind of level and in a field of this size, I think she can be taken on.

Easton Angel was only narrowly outpointed by Sir Mark Prescott’s filly at York earlier this month and there likely won’t be a great deal to separate the pair here. Michael Dods’ grey was one of the top two-year-old fillies last season, coming second to Wesley Ward’s powerhouse Acapulco in the Queen Mary Stakes and finishing in the frame in a couple more Group 2s before rounding off her campaign with a disappointing display in the Listed Harry Rosebery Stakes at Ayr. She showed some of her old self on her first two starts this season with a pair of Listed wins at York and Sandown but there doesn’t seem to be a standout reason why she’ll reverse the form of her latest run.

Last year’s winner Muthmir hasn’t been in quite his best form this year for all his third placed finish behind the aforementioned fillies was an improved effort. The quicker the ground, the better for the son of Invincible Spirit and the conditions here seem to be turning in his favour. There is just the suspicion that he may have plateaued somewhat and the fact he is 1lb worse off with Marsha and Easton Angel from their York meeting earlier in the month, doesn’t aid his cause at all.

Kachy finished further back in the field in sixth which was a disappointing return given how well he shaped when second in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. The drop back to 5f seemed to be what he needed but there were no real excuses this time around and it may have simply been the case that he made the most of a lack of pace at the Royal meeting to steal a place.

Three-year-olds haven’t the best of records in this race but Moviesta showed that they can get their head in front when landing this three years ago and I think they are entitled to have a great chance with their weight-for-age allowance. Washington DC is an interesting contender given that he is dropping back to the minimum trip for the first time since taking the Windsor Castle Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot. Aidan O’Brien’s charge was only a couple of lengths behind champion two-year-old Air Force Blue in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and although overshadowed by his more illustrious stablemate, still enjoyed a most successful juvenile season. He won a Listed contest over seven furlongs at Dundalk to open his campaign but showed arguably his best form when just one place behind Kachy at Royal Ascot (on ground that was a lot softer than ideal). Somewhat surprisingly, he was rather unfancied in the July Cup but ran a blinder in fifth and enters much calmer waters here, so must be feared.

However, preference is for the remaining three-year-old colt in the field AJAYA. William Haggas’ charge needs to bounce back from a disappointing display in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes last time but he really came into his own at this time last year and, if this three-year-old campaign follows suit, he could be well overpriced. When capturing the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York last August (from Ribchester who has since landed the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot as well as finishing third in the 2000 Guineas and in the Sussex Stakes earlier this week) he confirmed himself as one of the top juveniles in the country and ran a good race in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on his final start, finishing fourth having tried to live with superstar Shalaa. That understandably took a bit out of him and the only time we have seen him since was at Haydock in May. Haggas could have pitched him into an easier contest to get him back into the groove but I think it speaks volumes that he has targeted this race and if recapturing the form he showed last season, he could cause a bit of a shock.

Of the older brigade, Cotai Glory is entitled to run a big race having found the step up to six furlongs too much in the July Cup last time. Prior to that, he had only found Profitable too strong in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and evidently has a lot of speed. He ran well here last year, only weakening out of it late on into fifth and looks a stronger proposition now he is a year older. Goken has a similar profile having finished one place behind Charlie Hills’ speedster at the Royal meeting but that was a standout effort this campaign and he was well down the field in last year’s renewal.

One that is perhaps of more interest is Godolphin’s Jungle Cat who has thrived since dropping down to the minimum trip this campaign. He finished second by the narrowest of margins in a Meydan Group 3 before running a blinder to finish a close-up fourth in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint back there three weeks later. Charlie Appleby’s colt seemed to bring that form back home when second to subsequent King’s Stand winner Profitable in the Palace House Stakes. His fourth behind his re-opposing rival at Ascot was a pretty smart effort and he can be forgiven his July Cup run having stepped up in trip. He seems to go under the radar a bit but is certainly not one to discount lightly.

MY Advice

AJAYA – 1pt e/w @ 28/1 (Bet365)



4.20 Goodwood – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Nursery (Handicap)


Our second nursery of the week looks another tricky contest and much like the race on Thursday, Mark Johnston has the top two in the weights starting with Mailshot who got back to winning ways at Kempton last time. Prior to that he had been disappointing on his previous couple of runs in conditions events and on the face of it, his mark of 89 looks stiff enough for what he has achieved.

His stablemate Rusumaat looks a little more progressive having won two of his last three starts in impressive fashion. The latest of those victories saw justify favouritism at Catterick last month, winning with four and a half lengths to spare, despite conceding at least 7lb to all of his rivals. Apart from his debut, his only disappointing effort saw him run down the field in the Coventry which can be excused and he looks the pick of the Johnston runners.

Sheikh Hamdan also has Naafer running in his colours and the filly got off the mark at the third time of asking at York a few weeks ago. She hadn’t been beaten far in either of her first two starts and being closely related to the smart Ertijaal, there should be more to come from her as the season goes on. Paul Hanagan prefers the claims of Rusumaat but Martin Harley is an able deputy and she is interesting on her handicap bow.

Godolphin are doubly represented by two colts who both hold entries in the Gimcrack Stakes at York next month. Final Reckoning has looked progressive on his first three starts, finishing fourth behind the smart Mokarris on his debut at Haydock. He bumped into another smart performer next time at York but won in good style at Yarmouth when last seen. He seems to be getting the hang of racing and he looks open to further progress.

However, I slightly prefer the claims of his stablemate TOP SCORE who wasn’t beaten far by the talented Global Applause on his debut in May and accounted for Montataire with some ease at Ripon next time. That was a big step forward on his debut run and having raced in the centre group at Royal Ascot, he wasn’t beaten far when finishing ninth in the Windsor Castle. He should appreciate the return to six furlongs and the quicker ground should also suit the Hard Spun colt. He does sit towards the head of the weights on 9st 5lb but he has some good form to his name already and he looks a leading contender.

Of the rest, there are a few outsiders who are worth a mention including Diable D’Or who wasn’t beaten far in the Weatherbys Super Sprint a couple of weeks ago. He showed a lot of pace that day before being collared late on and if he can get loose on the lead here, he could take some pegging back.

Ed Dunlop’s Zamjar has also reportedly always been held in high regard by the stable but he has just taken a little while to learn his job. He got off the mark at the fourth attempt at Epsom last time and he should be able to build on that effort, now in handicap company.

Richard Fahey is always a man worth considering in handicaps and he teams up with Jamie Spencer here with Scofflaw. The Foxwedge colt was a surprise winner on his debut at Chester in May but failed to live up to expectations when bumping into a smart Mark Johnston colt at Pontefract next time. It is still early days with him and the pair have a good strike-rate when teaming up.

The final one to mention is the maiden Aventinus who represents the Hugo Palmer stable. He ran behind Broken Stones at York on debut and was narrowly denied by the smallest of margins at Kempton next time. He was keen that day and at Ayr most recently when disappointing over seven furlongs last time and the drop back to six furlongs should help him to control those tendencies. He has been well-supported on more than one occasion so far and he could improve for the step into handicaps.

MY Advice

TOP SCORE – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (SkyBet)



4.55 Goodwood – L’Ormarins Queens Plate Stakes (Registered as The Oak Tree Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares)


A pretty competitive race all being told but ALWAYS SMILE has the best form in the book and rates as the one to beat. The Godolphin filly was unbeaten until only narrowly denied by Osaila in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot last year as she hung across the track and lost out by a nose. The daughter of Cape Cross came back with a vengeance after nearly a year off when scoring on her seasonal debut in the Listed Hambleton Stakes at York before finishing close-up thirds in both the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes and Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. That run at Newmarket was likely a career-beat as the winner Alice Springs broke the course record and she battled on all the way to the line as she lost out by only a nose to stablemate Very Special in her bid to finish second. She does drop back in trip to seven furlongs for the first time here but that shouldn’t pose her too much of a problem and she could well be in a different league to her rivals here.

Fellow Godolphin contender Mise En Rose arrives here in good form following a fine run at Newmarket’s July Festival and she remains a filly on the up. The three-year-old found was clearly unsuited by the soft ground at Royal Ascot on her penultimate start and showed some fairly useful form on the all-weather at Chelmsford prior to that this season. This is a big step up in class for her but it looked a very hot handicap that she landed earlier in the month and she is entitled to take her place in this company.

Opal Tiara looked to be a top filly in the making when finishing second to Easton Angel in last year’s Hilary Needler Trophy but things didn’t really pan out for her after that. However, she showed her best form for some time when hosing up in the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle last month and the drop to seven furlongs on quick ground seemed to bring the best out of her. She will enjoy similar conditions here but has found this level a bit too competitive previously and would need to improve to have a say. Nevertheless, that Carlisle form has received a boost with Red Box (2nd) being awarded the Listed Valiant Stakes at Ascot last week and she could well still have a bit in the locker.

The one to lose out in the Valiant Stakes was first past the post Namroodah who turns up here having been disqualified by the stewards. The daughter of Sea The Stars did seem to impede Irish Rookie on the inside rail but was still showing willingness to keep on at the finish and showed a good attitude despite the interference. She was a winner over seven fuelongs last month so the drop back in trip here could play to her strengths and she clearly is in fine fettle at present.

One in danger of going the wrong way is Besharah who landed the Group 2 Lowther Stakes last year and was beaten less than a length by Lumiere when third in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She has been campaigned from 6f-1m this season with her best run coming when fourth in the French 1,000 Guineas. Connections don’t seem to know what her best trip is and have put her in here for another crack at seven furlongs having been outpaced over six at York last time. She doesn’t seem to be the same force as last year but is a talented filly still and has a part to play.


MY Advice


ALWAYS SMILE – 1pt win @ 2/1 (Bet365, BetVictor)




5.25 Goodwood – Betfred Mobile Stakes (Handicap)


Yet another difficult-to-solve, competitive handicap over a middle distance trip this week and this one often produces a Group-class performer in the making. Heading the weights is Sir Michael Stoute’s POET’S WORD, who put in a disappointing effort at Epsom last time out after looking an extremely promising prospect beforehand. There were plenty of excuses that day though – the track, ground and messy trip could all have contributed to that showing. It speaks volumes that we label that effort as ‘disappointing’ even though he finished fourth of 15 that day and he’ll have learned plenty on his first venture into big-field handicap company. The combination of quicker ground here and being able to race off just a 1lb higher mark should result in a much better effort and I’m convinced that this is a horse with the ability to rate much higher than the mark of 88 he currently sits on. His half-sister Malabar also won each time she visited Goodwood, both Group 3’s, so it’s possible that the course could also suit the Poet’s Voice colt. Tashaar won the race off top weight last year and there’s only been two winners that have carried under nine stone in the past 10 years so heading the handicap isn’t an issue for me – he’s been given time after Epsom and it all points to a bold show here.

However, there are quite a few in-form, progressive sorts that will rate big dangers to the selection, including Al Shaqab’s Al Neksh, trained by William Haggas. His handicap win at Chester looks a decent bit of form and he overcame keenness and having to close down a leader who had led at a steady gallop, so he could well be a good bit better than his mark of 87. These same connections won the race last year with Tashaar off a mark of 90 and this horse, whilst maybe not being at that kind of level, Al Neksh is certainly progressive and tactically versatile, so is certainly in with a good shout here.

A most impressive seven length winner last time out at Epsom, Sixties Groove, is another progressive middle distance colt who’s in with a shout here if continuing his improvement. The 12lb hike in the weights for that win could be an issue up in class though and he might be one to swerve for the time being while he proves that kind of mark is something he can overcome.

There are two others that look to have good chances if proving themselves on just their fourth ever start, starting with Cheveley Park’s Indulged, who was just over four lengths behind Poet’s Word on her racecourse debut at Nottingham. She didn’t enjoy the soft ground at Windsor last time and this return to a quicker surface should suit her much better. I think she’ll run well here and could be the each-way play in the race, especially given this slight step up in trip should suit on pedigree.

Sabre Squadron is the other unexposed candidate in the race and he’s hugely interesting when you consider he’s never run over further than an extended mile before. He finally showed he was getting the hang of things when winning at Leicester and this longer trip could well bring out lots of improvement as long as the Lope De Vega gelding stays the distance. There’s stamina in the family, so there’s hope for this trip, and you can be sure that Jamie Spencer will give his mount every chance to get it – he’ll most likely be held up and it’ll be a case of boom or bust, a risky investment.

MY Advice


POET’S WORD – 1.5pts win @ 9/2 (Bet365, William Hill)

[mato66]

welldone bitchy great tipping tbf..i just carnt post like that..im more direct, welldone again mate.

[bitchy]

The 'Glorious' Qatar Goodwood Festival DAY 5 OF 5

30/7/2016




2.00 Goodwood – The Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Stakes (Handicap)


With winners priced in between 7/1 and 28/1 in the last ten years, this race is clearly a bit of a pinstickers’ special and you’re going to need a bit of luck to win. Firstly, we’ll have to be ruthless with some solid trends so that we can cut the 28-strong field down to a more manageable shortlist. No winner of the race in the last ten years has carried less than 9-0, so that’s the bottom eight ruled out, just 20 to go.

All of the last ten winners had shown their well-being in the season and had been placed on at least one of their last four starts, which takes another six out and leaves us with 14, so we need another few eliminators. All of the last ten winners had nine or more runs in a handicap under their belts, so this is one of those messy, big-field affairs where experience can count for a lot – three more fall by the wayside here, including Ryan Moore’s mount, Projection and Jamie Spencer’s ride, Shamshon.

Also, all of the last ten winners had been placed at least four times in handicaps previously, so we lose two of Richard Fahey’s contenders, Ballymore Castle and Grandad’s World, as well as Misterioso. No winner in the last ten years has won this after winning last time out, so that’s Soie D’Leau off the list and, finally, every one of the last ten winners had also experienced the unique test that is Goodwood at least once before, scratching Nuno Tristan and Mukaynis.

So we’re down to the final five now and, interestingly, Paul Midgley trains two of them. Gamesome has been rated as high as 100 once upon a time, and came close to taking advantage of his lower mark of 93 when finishing second on his last two runs, however, combining the fact he’s gone back up to 97 again now and his overall record of just one win in 16 races, he will most likely come up a bit short once again.

Related is Midgley’s other contender and after a period in the doldrums, a third placed finish on his last run in the competitive Sky Bet Dash Stakes at York could well signal a return to form. He’s well-handicapped on last year’s form, where he was a four-length ninth to Magical Memory in the Stewards’ Cup off a mark of 97. He’s rated 90 now and must hold good claims here given his prominent running style and decent draw in 7; however, he does seem to lack the finishing speed to close out his races and could again see a couple fly past in the final furlong, even though he should run a good race.

George Baker’s Muir Lodge has been progressive over the last 12 months, going from a mark of 84 to his current perch of 93 and while he ran ok off the highest mark of his career at Windsor, he was disappointing next time at Newmarket over seven furlongs. Reverting to this shorter trip should help but even though he’s run at Goodwood three times previously, I’m not sure he enjoys the track and combined with this career-high mark, I’ll pass him over here.

Hoof It has been a hugely consistent, creditable performer in many of the top six furlong handicaps around the country for a long time now – he has a Stewards’ Cup win to his name in 2011. His last run behind the current favourite for the Stewards’ Cup, Orion’s Bow, was a very decent effort behind a very progressive rival and off just 1lb higher here, he has to have decent claims for a Trainer/Jockey partnership in Michael Easterby and Nathan Evans who have already won plenty this season, including the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh with the same owners’ Hoofalong. He was 12th in this race last season off the same mark though, so even though he’s in better form going into this race than last year, he’ll have to run a belter under a big weight (aided by Evans’ 5lb claim) to get involved.

The horse that’s left sat at the top of my list was in fact one place behind the earlier mentioned Related at York in the Sky Bet Dash Stakes, but receives the good end of a 3lb swing in the weights from that run and could reverse the form with that rival. It is of course David Barron’s FAST TRACK that I’m talking about and this son of Rail Link has now been dropped to 90, his lowest mark since his last win, all the way back in July 2014, where he beat the classy Eastern Impact off 87 at the July Course, no mean feat given that horse loves the track. Obviously it is a concern that the horse hasn’t won since then, but he has finished second three times since then in good handicaps, so he’s come close plenty of times. Last year, the gelding finished sixth in this race off a mark of 96, just three lengths behind Golden Steps, so off 7lbs lower and after the run at York showing he’s in good form once again (just 3 lengths behind the in-form Kimberella), he’s surely got a huge chance of being involved at a decent price. Five-year-olds also have the best record of any age group in the last ten renewals of the race, with three victories, so he fits the profile of a winner of this race well – from stall 19, I’m expecting a big run.


MY Advice


FAST TRACK 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)




2.35 Goodwood – The Qatar Handicap Stakes


Another tricky handicap over a mile and a half and yet another Goodwood race that Mark Johnston has an excellent record in – has won it three times in the last ten years – he has another four contenders here in the shape of Jaameh, Regal Monarch, Beaverbrook and Soldier In Action. Of the four, Jaameh and Regal Monarch may well need the ground much softer than they’re likely to get here, so it could be bet to focus on the other two despite these two’s low weights. Soldier in Action was a good winner last time out off a mark of 90, beating Snoano by a length and a quarter over this trip on good ground, so we know he stays and enjoys the ground. His prominent style of racing should stand him in good stead here as long as a berth of stall 14 doesn’t inconvenience him and he certainly has claims with Adam Kirby in the saddle.

Beaverbrook is a whole different kettle of fish. He’s been campaigned very oddly recently, running over a mile at Haydock in May and then taking part in the two-mile Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot – both had the same result: being beaten ten and a half lengths down the field. While neither run would encourage you to back him, the fact that he’s now trying this intermediate trip for the first time, back on better ground is intriguing. Don’t forget, this was a horse that was just four lengths behind subsequent Eclipse winner Hawkbill three runs ago in a Listed race over a mile and a quarter. On pedigree, this son of Cape Cross and a Kingmambo mare could well find this trip right up his street and if he does, a mark of 93 could be lenient given how useful a two-year-old he was (4th in the Coventry Stakes) so he has to be given very close attention with the superb James McDonald in the saddle.

Another trainer who has won three of the last ten renewals of this is Sir Michael Stoute and he’s double-handed here with two sons of Sea The Stars, running off the same mark of 91, one that could underestimate both. SHRAAOH is a highly-regarded Al Shaqab-owned colt who absolutely hacked up in a maiden over a mile and a quarter at Newcastle before disappointing over this trip on soft ground at Royal Ascot. That effort, even considering he had a nightmare trip and was hampered multiple times, looked too bad to be true that day and it could have been that he needs the ground fast, something he’ll get here. He was a never-nearer third in what seems to be one of the best three-year-old handicaps of the year so far at Nottingham back in May, closing on Poet’s Word and Muntahaa and beating Indulged and Makzeem home, all very useful types. I have no doubt he’s got plenty more to come and the good ground will help him to put in a much better effort here under Frankie Dettori.

Stablemate Shabbah has been in excellent form, winning three races and finishing second in his four runs this season, going up 27lbs in the handicap as a result. He couldn’t quite get the better of Manjaam last time at Ascot and it could be that his improvement is starting to level out. He’ll most likely go well again here, but whether he’s as well handicapped as some others in the race is questionable. He beat Dal Harraild by a neck that day and William Haggas’ runner was very unlucky not to have won – he’s a progressive handicapper who loves this trip on fast ground and a subsequent 3lb rise shouldn’t stop him from performing well. He’s well drawn in 2, but if he’s held up as usual, he may just find it too tough a task to make up ground off his big weight.

Speaking of big weights, Move Up is Godolphin’s hope in the race and, rated 100, he has to carry the welter burden of 9-7. However, his victory over the useful Gershwin over a mile and a quarter at Ascot last time out was a very good effort and this step up to a mile and a half could well draw plenty more improvement out of him. Top weights have won this race before, but giving so much weight to a lot of progressive horses is a serious ask even for a horse rated as highly as 100 and while I think he’ll run well, there could be a couple better weighted to strike.

The other horse that needs a mention is Ralph Beckett’s Gold Faith, who won very easily at Newmarket last time out on his first attempt at this trip on quick ground and the resulting 6lb rise may not be enough to stop the Dark Angel gelding performing well, even up in class.


MY Advice


SHRAAOH 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power)




3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)



Really and truly, it’s difficult to see this becoming more than just a procession and MINDING shouldn’t have any problem at all in extending her tally of Group 1 wins to six. She would have been a hot favourite without the fact that the field has cut up markedly and the only real opposition could come in the shape of John Gosden’s Swiss Range in a bid to extend her handler’s record in this race to four wins in five years having landed three in a row from 2012-14. She was well beaten in the French Oaks and although that can often turn out to be a muddling race, the form of her Listed Pretty Polly win prior to that falls well short of that required to trouble he selection.

French raider Jemayel probably boasts the strongest form in the book of the challenging quartet having scored at Group 1 level in the Prix Saint-Alary at Deuville in May. She finished narrowly behind Swiss Range last time out having never had the run of the race but would likely need to improve a great deal here to figure.

Beautiful Romance looks to have a near impossible job on her hands giving 10lbs to the red-hot favourite for all that she has proven herself at Group 1 level before when a good third in the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes behind Simple Verse.

Queen’s Trust completes the field for red-hot jockey James McDonald but the way in which she was going on at the finish in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot suggested she needed further than the 1m4f on offer there so the step back to 1m2f doesn’t look to be particularly in her favour.


MY Advice


SWISS RANGE (W/O Minding) – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Totesport, Betfred)

[bitchy]

3.45 Goodwood – Qatar Stewards´ Cup.


The 6yo Hawkeyethenoo scooped the honours back in 2012, becoming only the second six-year-old winner in the last decade. The group with the most success are the 4yo or 5yos who have won seven of the past ten renewals. In fact it is the 4yos that have the stronger record outpointing the 5yos by 5-2. I won’t go to the trouble of listing them all as I am sure you can work that out for yourself but it has to be a concern for the likes of Kimberella, Blaine and Ninjago.

As with the Betfred Mile on Friday those running from the top or the bottom of the handicap don’t fair that well. To be precise, horses officially rated between 95 and 104 have won all of the last 10 renewals. There is perfectly good reason behind that. Horses towards the top of the weights are often fully exposed and therefore find it tough to improve again in such a competitive contest whilst those towards the bottom of the weights usually aren’t quite up to this level. The lowest rated horse in this year’s field is 97 but there are three horses who miss out at the head of the field, Baccarat, Ridge Ranger (both 109) and G Force (108).

Closely related to official ratings is the weight each horse is asked to carry and as six of the last ten winners carried between 8st 11lb and 9st 7lb, this looks to be the desired bracket. The top three as they appear on the racecard also fall short on this score, so they look to be up against it.

Recent form also plays an important role in finding the winner as a horse that achieved a top four finish on their most recent start has taken six of the last ten renewals. This suggests that horses have to be at their optimum to run well here and it is not a race in which you should be hoping for horses to have a miraculous return to form. It clearly isn’t the be all and end all but it is something to bear in mind.

Also worth factoring into your calculations is the draw. If my memory serves it was the far rail that usually won but times seem to be shifting as 6 of the last 10 winners came from a pretty central draw (stalls 10-20). Because of the design of the course there are very few races in which the runners come down the centre of the course and it may well be that after 4 days of racing this provides the freshest strip of ground?

The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and given the competitive nature of the race you are always going to get the odd shock. The Stewards’ Cup has had its fair share – Guinea Hunter at 33/1 and Conquest at 40/1 – but overall it has still paid to concentrate on those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the first five in the betting. This race is notorious for the runners flip-flopping in the betting in the lead up to the race but as it stands at the time of writing Dancing Star and Orion’s Bow are vying for favouritism at around 6/1. Whilst Toofi, Kimberella and Growl are also proving popular in the market.


Shortlist

ORION’S BOW – 6/6

Growl – 5/6

Toofi – 4/6

Dancing Star – 4/6


Conclusion


David Nicholls has won this race a number of times over the years and he looks to have the standout performer in this year’s field as he saddles ORION’S BOW. The five-year-old won off a mark of 69 in May but has soared up the handicap since then, winning four times since, most recently at Hamilton a couple of weeks ago. That was arguably his most impressive success to date and running here under a 6lb penalty it is hard to dismiss his claims given his progressive profile.

Growl is another who makes the shortlist having missed only one of our trends and that is due to his draw in stall 26. Other than that, the four-year-old looks to have a strong chance, having won two of his last three starts on the racecourse. He was a close fourth in the Bunbury Cup over seven furlongs last time and it is always worth noting when Richard Fahey books Ryan Moore in these big races.
Last year’s runner-up Toofi also looks to have plenty going in his favour having also finished fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup last September. He wasn’t beaten far in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last time and if he can overcome his draw in stall 23, he should be in the shake-up.

The final member of the shortlist is Dancing Star who was the last one to make it into the field of 28 runners. She is a three-year-old and won the same race at Newmarket last time that Magical Memory did before winning this race last year. Her trainer is no stranger to winning big prizes here at Goodwood and under a 6lb penalty, she looks to be one of the leading contenders.


MY Advice


ORION’S BOW – 1.5pts win @ 6/1 (William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power)




4.20 Goodwood – Qatar Ebf Stallions Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings)


We have an interesting maiden to follow the Stewards’ Cup and one who is likely to be popular in the market is Lockheed who caught the eye of many when finishing second to Seven Heavens at Ascot earlier this month. He was ridden patiently by Pat Cosgrave but really got into top gear in the closing stages and gave the favourite a bit of a fright on that occasion. He cost 450,000 guineas as a yearling and with entries in the National Stakes and Champagne Stakes, clearly plenty is thought of him. However, he is likely to be short and it looks another strong contest so it might be worth looking elsewhere for a selection.

Richard Fahey’s Abiento is unlikely to be too far away having built on a promising debut at Carlisle when second to the well-regarded South Seas at Haydock last time. That was definitely a step forward and although he is drawn wide here, his experience should stand him in good stead.

Another runner with a couple of runs under his belt is Manolito De Madrid who finished second to Tap Tap Boom when last seen at the end of last month. That colt acquitted himself well in handicap company here earlier in the week and although he needs to find further improvement to get off the mark here, the yard’s 2yos tend to improve with racing.

The same can be said for runners from the Michael Bell stable so it must have been pleasing for them to see Ray’s The Money run so well at Ascot on his debut. He attracted support in the market beforehand and probably just had too much to do in the end, having been green early on. Jamie Spencer takes over from William Carson and another big run is likely to be expected.

However, the one I like the look of is BLACK TRILBY who may have only finished seventh on his first start at Leicester, but he raced keenly early on and he paid for that exuberance inside the final furlong. He still wasn’t beaten that far and the winner in particular is highly thought of by connections. The Clive Cox team are in good form at present and they notched another big 2yo winner in France last weekend. He has an entry in the Champagne Stakes later in the season and he could offer a bit of each-way value against those at the head of the market.

Of the newcomers, Richard Hannon’s Ghayyar is perhaps the most interesting, running in the Al Shaqab colours. The Power colt cost 160,000 guineas as a yearling and is a half-brother to a Listed winner in Mahaatheer. The yard have won this race three times in the last ten years and will be hoping for a strong performance by their debutant.

Hugo Palmer’s Colibri is also worth a mention being by Champion Australia sire Redoute’s Choice and he too holds an entry in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September. The yard’s 2yos tend to improve for their first run but they aren’t averse to having first time out winners so it will be interesting to see how he fares.



MY Advice


BLACK TRILBY – 0.75pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)




4.55 Goodwood – The Qatar Stakes (Handicap)


This seven furlong handicap for three-year-olds looks to have plenty of classy individuals entered, but as we’ve seen in the past and throughout this week, the draw is important, especially over this distance.
Hornsby has some decent form in the book, including a good third to Von Blucher in a strong mile handicap at Newmarket, but he’s drawn in the car park in 15 and would probably prefer a surface with a little bit of cut in it, especially back at seven furlongs. So while I think he’s a decent horse, this might not be the right race to back him in.

Also suffering from a bad draw is Richard Hannon’s George William, who’s been very progressive this season, winning twice and being placed twice, but he’s been raised 4lbs for his last second to Rostova and in combination with the high draw and how he’ll have to expend a fair amount of energy to get to his favoured prominent position, he might be another to swerve on this occasion.

The three that it might pay to concentrate on are drawn 2, 3 and 4, starting with Godolphin’s second runner, VENTUROUS, who will break from 4. He’s exclusively raced over six furlongs after his racecourse debut over seven and judging by the way he’s been caught for pace over the shorter trip on a few occasion over his past five runs, this step up to seven furlongs could be the ideal next step in this Raven’s Pass colt’s career. Trainer Charlie Appleby has always thought he’s not short of speed, but this step up to seven furlongs on a tight track, coupled with a 2lb drop in his mark to 95 and the assistance of the in-form James McDonald, could result in a decent performance and I think he’s got a big chance.

Estidraak represents the Sir Michael Stoute yard and must bounce back from a disappointing showing at Newmarket in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes. He was way too keen on the lead that day and paid for it in the final couple of furlongs, even though Paul Hanagan wasn’t hard on him at all once his chance had gone. It was a disappointing effort after the style of his maiden win at Kempton, where he hacked up by seven lengths, looking a very classy performer. That run at Newmarket was also his first run on turf and he still has to prove he likes the surface, along with having to prove he’s up to this level so soon in his career. I have no doubt we’ll see a better effort from the colt from stall 2 this time around, but whether he’s up to taking a competitive handicap like this is another question entirely.

The last of the three well-drawn horses is Mark Johnston’s Hawatif, who more than confirmed her wellbeing last time out at Doncaster where she beat Company Asset and Quick N Quirky in a fillies’ handicap. She races off a mark only 4lb higher now and if sticking with the prominent tactics that have seen her go so well over the past month, she could have another decent effort in her locker. The concern is that the race she won just a week or so ago wasn’t very strong and she’ll certainly have to step up once again to be involved here.

Mamillius broke his duck on the third attempt for trainer George Baker and looked a useful colt when doing so at Salisbury. He won easily that day, and could be anything on his handicap debut. However, the second horse in that race, Marbooh, has struggled in two handicaps off a mark of 80 so this mark of 88 might be high enough for now, even though he should enjoy both trip and ground here.



MY Advice:


VENTUROUS – 1pt win @ 6/1 (SkyBet)




6.00 Goodwood – Qatar Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)


These types of races can prove a bit of a minefield and it often pays to side with an apprentice you know can do the job. Eddie Greatrex is one such man having landed the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day last year and his mount MR QUICKSILVER must have a big shout. The gallant grey had been most consistent last campaign without quite getting his head in front until finally shedding his maiden tag at Lingfield in December at the tenth time of asking. The son of Dansili has since left Andrew Balding and can be forgiven his debut run after nearly six months off on ground softer than ideal and over a trip shorter than he is used to. He bounced back to his usual self over a mile at Ascot last time when second in a competitive-looking heat and given he was doing all his best work at the finish having hit a flat spot, the extra furlong here should play right into his hands. A 4lb rise looks fair on that evidence and a big run is expected.

His stablemate Bold Prediction has a somewhat contrasting profile having been on the go almost constantly since August last year. He hit a purple patch on the all-weather around the turn of the year and carried on his good work transferred to turf last time out when second to the re-opposing Heisman at Yarmouth. The fact that he hasn’t won on turf for over three years is rather disconcerting but Walker has employed the services of crack apprentice Adam McNamara and he is a player.

His Yarmouth vanquisher Heisman showed signs that he was coming back to the boil last time out on only his second start for George Baker and could well come on a great deal for that win. The first-time cheekpieces seemed to keep him focussed when winning at the Norfolk track and re-applied here he has to be considered off only a 2lb higher mark.

Van Huysen is one of only two last time out winners in the field having scored at Sandown on Wednesday. If he turns out again quickly, he gets in here with a 6lb penalty which may overestimate him given the nature of his one and a half length win. He also has a bit to find with the selection on their Ascot running.

Completing the last time out winning trio is Eurystheus who could well be a big player on the evidence of his Chester success earlier this month. He has only been hit with a 4lb rise for that which looks particularly lenient given the ready nature of the win but all of his best recent form has come with pronounced ease in the ground and although the rain may have dampened things slightly, it’s difficult to see conditions worsening a great deal which may just scupper his chance.


MY Advice


MR QUICKSILVER – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Sky Bet)

[Faugheen_Machine]

My biggest bet of the flat season to date is Toofi in the Stewards Cup. Took the 12/1, 5 places. I've been waiting for this horse for a while. Slightly concerned about the draw but this looks to have been it's target for a while having finished 2nd last year and his change of stables is a massive plus for me.

[bitchy]

I like Toofi myself ,so I will have a go

[Istabraq]

I might have to have a few quid on Toofi given forum confidence

In what looks an impossible card today I plumped for:

2.00 Gamesome and Projection
2.35 Gold Faith and Mister Blue Eyes
3.45 Kimbrella and Go Far

All e/w

Over at Galway in the 3.15 Totalize is in the form of his life and 11/1 looks a decent price

All e/w

Good luck all

[Faugheen_Machine]

Added Gamesome in the 2:00

[mayo]

Bitchy - great write ups this week

great to have yiu back with jumpers not too far away now.