The Qatar Goodwood Festival - 26 - 30 July 2016

[racecaller13]

The Qatar Lennox Stakes is the big race on the opening day of the Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 26th July. A group 2 run over 7 furlongs for horses age 3 or older.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 5-4-27

4yo: 2-6-28

5yo: 3-4-21

6yo+: 0-3-16

4 of 5 three-year-old winners ran in English or French 2000 Guineas, exception won the Jersey Stakes and finished 3rd in Prix Jean Prat.

No horses aged older than 5 has ever won this race.



Gender

Fillies & mares (1-0-2) have gained 1 win from their 2 runners.



Weight

There is a 5lb penalty for group 1 winners and 3lb penalty of group 2 winners since 31st October 2015.

Record of horses carrying a group 2 penalty: 107693 (1-0-6)

The last 2 winners to win under a penalty were Iffraaj (2006) who won the Park Stakes the previous year and was 2nd in July Cup on previous start and Nayyir in 2003, who had won previous year’s race and had placed in previous year’s group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest.



Recent Form

8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time (2 exceptions were 3yos unplaced in a 2000 Guineas)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 104 or higher last time

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ in their last 3 starts

9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (exception ran once in 2000 Guineas)

3 of 10 winners had won at Glorious Goodwood (4 exceptions were having first course start and 2 other had finished 2nd in a race at Glorious Goodwood)

8 of 10 winners had won over 7F (1 exception was beaten a short head in a group 1 on only previous try at 7F and other was 2nd in Bunbury Cup)

7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race over 7F

10 of 10 winners had achieved an RPR of 109+ over 7F

8 of 10 winners had won a group race (1 exception won a listed race and other was placed in group 2 & group 3 that season)

6 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race that year (3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in group 1 or 2 that year)

6 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 1 (only 1 winner had previously won a group 1)

4 of 5 winners aged 3 won their maiden as a 2yo at Newmarket or Newbury



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from previous year's race: 803762441 (1-2-9)

Highest placed finisher from Jersey Stakes: 614681132 (3-1-9)

City Plate winner (Birchwood): 31676 (1-1-5)

Pavilion Stakes winner (Gifted Master): 3 (0-1-1)

Chipchase Stakes winner (Markaz): 6 (0-0-1)

King Richard III Stakes winner (Home Of The Brave): 50 (0-0-2)

John O'Gaunt winner (Home Of The Brave): 048 (0-0-3)

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 516

3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in Jersey Stakes, finishing 114

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in French 2000 Guineas, finishing 07

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in previous year's Coventry Stakes, finishing 31

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 97

2 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in previous year's Middle Park Stakes, finishing 92

3 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Diamond Jubilee Sprint, finishing 700

2 of 5 winners aged 4+ ran in Lockinge Stakes, finishing 32

2 of 5 winners aged 4+ had won at a previous Glorious Goodwood (1 Oak Tree & 1 Thoroughbred Stakes) - two others were 2nd in this or 5th in Sussex Stakes



Trainers

The Richard Hannon yard (3-4-15) has been responsible for 3 of the last 8 winners and also 4 more places in past 10 years, including the runner-up in 2012 & 2014.

Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) won this with Tariq in 2006 and Richard Fahey (1-0-4) won it with Garswood in 2013.



Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners led or tracked leader(s)

3 of 10 winners were held up in rear



Price

10 of 10 winners have come from the first 3 in the betting and priced 7/1 or below.

Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of last 10 runnings & show a level stakes profit of 3.13.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 3 and ran in French or English 2000 Guineas and/or won Jersey Stakes or

- Aged 4 or 5 that had won at Glorious Goodwood & finished in first 3 in a group 1

- Finished in first 3 last time or a 3yo unplaced in a group 1

- Posted an RPR of 110+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts

- Previously won at Glorious Goodwood (or having first course start)

- Previously won a class 1 race over 7F & achieved RPR of 109+ over the trip

- Has won a group race (ideally also won a class 1 race in 2016)

- Finished in first 3 in a group 1

- Aged 3 that ran in Greenham and/or 2015 Coventry or Middle Park Stakes

- Aged 4+ that ran in Diamond Jubilee and/or Lockinge Stakes

- Trained by Richard Hannon

- From first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 7/1

[racecaller13]

The Qipco Sussex Stakes is one of two group 1 races that take place during the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Festival, which kicks off on Tuesday 26th July. It’s the highlight of Wednesday’s card and it’s the only race that Frankel won twice during his career. Last year, Solow won the race on the back of taking the Queen Anne, and generally the St James Palace & Queen Anne have proven the key races for finding the winner of this.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age

3yo: 6-4-25

4yo: 1-4-23

5yo: 2-0-8

6yo+: 1-2-7

3yos have held the edge in recent years over their older rivals.

3yo: 6-4-25

4yo+: 4-6-38

Since 1999, 9 of the 11 winners aged 3 had finished in first 2 in St James Palace

Last 5 winners aged 4+ had finished in the first 2 in the Queen Anne.



Gender

Fillies & mares (0-2-2) have gained 1 win and 3 places from just 5 runners since 2004, however Soviet Song accounted for the win and 2 of the places from her 3 runs in the race, with Ghanaati filling the other place. Both Soviet Song and Ghanaati finished in first 4 in both 1000 Guineas & Coronation Stakes as 3yos.



Recent Form

10 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 121 or higher last time

10 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 5 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in past 55 days

9 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (exception was runner-up in Eclipse on previous start)

8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (2 exceptions had finished 2nd in group 1 company)

9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the Royal meeting that season

2 of 10 winners had won over the CD (8 others having first course start)



Other Races

St James Palace Stakes winner (Galileo Gold): 5211121 (4-2-7)

Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Awtaad): 5111 (3-0-4)

2000 Guineas winner (Galileo Gold): 112 (2-1-3)

Bet365 Mile winner (Toormore): 3332 (0-2-4)

Mill Reef Stakes winner (Ribchester): 25 (0-1-2)

French 2000 Guineas winner (The Gurkha): 4 (0-0-1)

Spring Trophy winner (So Beloved): 76 (0-0-2)

6 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in 2000 Guineas, finishing 143142

5 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace, finishing 11121

3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 111

3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 211

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in previous season's Coventry, finishing 11

2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in previous season's Dewhurst, finishing 71

4 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Anne Stakes, finishing 2111

3 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Lockinge, finishing 321

2 of 4 winners aged 4+ ran in the Hong Kong Mile, finishing 53



Trainers

Aidan O’Brien (2-2-15) has won the race 3 times in the past 14 years, all 3 of his winners were 3yos, his 5 older runners have all been beaten, just 1 placing.

Richard Hannon yard (2-1-7) has been responsible for 3 of last 13 winners (2003, 2010 & 2013).

John Gosden (1-1-3) gained his first win in this with Kingman in 2014, having gone close with Raven’s Pass, 2nd in 2008.

Peter Chapple-Hyam (0-1-3) and Richard Fahey (0-1-2) trained the 2nd & 3rd last year



Price

The last 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and priced 15/2 or below.

Favourites (7-3-11) have won 7 of last 8 runnings but show a level stakes profit of just 1.00 since 2006.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 3 (or aged 4 to 6 that finished in first 2 in Queen Anne)

- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out & posted an RPR of 121+

- Run 2 to 5 times in 2016

- Run in last 55 days

- Won over a mile

- Has won a group 1

- Finished in the first two at Royal Ascot

- 3yo finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas & first 2 in Irish 2000, St James Palace and/or Greenham

- Aged 4+ finished in first 3 in Lockinge and/or Queen Anne

- Trained by Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden or Richard Hannon

- From first 4 in the betting (15/2 or shorter)

[mayo]

Not a mill

Stars Over The Sea @ 9/1
Notarised @ 7/1
Hay Chewed @ 12/1
Haggle @ 6/1

Yankee

[bitchy]

The 'Glorious' Qatar Goodwood Festival DAY 2 OF 5
26/7/2016 ---30/7/2016



2.00 Goodwood – Matchbook Betting Exchange Goodwood Stakes (Handicap)


There aren’t too many races run over as far as this in Britain so finding a selection has to be done mostly on guesswork, unless of course there are horses in the line-up with proven form.
Nicky Henderson won this in 2015 and he saddles No Heretic here who won the Chester Cup over 2m2f towards the beginning of the season. He often travels strongly but he does usually get home when ridden towards the head of proceedings. However he has been well beaten on his two runs since Chester and Jamie Spencer gets aboard The Cashel Man instead.

David Simcock’s four-year-old hasn’t had a great deal of racing but has won three times including when winning at Newmarket last August. He went up 11lb for that effort but his run at York earlier this season suggested that mark had legs in it. He found the nature of the Northumberland Vase a little tight last time but wasn’t beaten far and this stronger stamina test should play into his hands.

One horse with plenty of stamina is Sir Mark Prescott’s Moscato who rarely runs a bad race and despite finishing seventh, he was only beaten two and a half lengths in last season’s Cesarewitch. Having finished fourth in the Ascot Stakes last month, he also ran a fine race to fill the same position in the Northumberland Plate last time. He shouldn’t be stopping at the business end of the race but the handicapper might just have his measure at this stage.

The nine-year-old Teak won this race two years for Ian Williams so must come into consideration but the nine-year-old will need to bounce back to form, having turned in a couple of below-par efforts on his last couple of runs.

Another from a National Hunt yard who looks of interest is Oceane who looks as though he was ahead of his mark when winning at Ascot a few weeks ago. A smart juvenile hurdler last winter for the yard, he has only gone up 2lb for beating Steve Rogers and the fast ground should be too his liking here. Clearly this extreme trip is something of an unknown but it would be foolish to rule him out.

James Eustace’s Wind Place And Sho must also come into the mix having won over 2m2f at Pontefract when last seen on a racecourse. The four-year-old drew readily clear of his rivals that day to win by six lengths and on the face of it, a 5lb rise doesn’t look too excessive. His biggest obstacle could be the draw having been drawn out wide in stall 20, but he is unexposed over the trip and there could be more to come.

However, the one I like the most is Ralph Beckett’s POYLE THOMAS who was off the track for nearly two years when being beaten a short-head at Newmarket back in May. The winner Desert Encounter has since won again and looks a progressive performer. Poyle Thomas stepped up to two miles in the Northumberland Vase last time and acquitted himself well, travelling well for a long way and in the end he was only beaten a length by the winner. His only previous try over further than 2m saw him finish eleventh in the Cesarewitch but he was only a four-year-old then and I think he is worth another try over this distance here. He travels well and if he stays, then I think he holds a good each-way chance at around 10/1.

MY Advice

POYLE THOMAS – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor)



2.35 Goodwood – BeringIce Gordon Stakes (Group 3)


Despite not looking like the most vintage renewal of the Gordon Stakes, it should still prove to be most competitive and Sir Michael Stoute could well hold all the aces. Ulysses hasn’t been seen since finishing well down the field in the Derby so has a bit to prove still having only landed a Newbury maiden to date. He was well-fancied but may have just been a bit of a hype horse and was well and truly found out at the highest level. This is certainly an easier opportunity but he is yet to race on anything faster than good to soft and his only attempt at 1m4f was hardly inspiring, albeit that it was in the Classic.

Therefore, PLATITUDE is taken as the one to beat on the back of his decent second in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket earlier this month. He is yet to add to his debut maiden win at Doncaster last June but has been pitched into some hot company and was far from disgraced when staying on into second behind the particularly well-handicapped Primitivo in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot on his penultimate start. The drop back a furlong to 1m4f should be in his favour here and the less stiff finish than the July Course can also play to his strengths. Stoute has captured this price five times this millennium with superstars such as Conduit and Harbinger along with Snow Sky who carried the same Khalid Abdullah silks as the selection to victory two years ago.

Aidan O’Brien doesn’t seem to have a particularly strong hand here given he landed last year’s renewal with Saturday’s King George winner Highland Reel but Shogun still rates as an interesting challenger as the pick of Ryan Moore. A brother to last year’s Oaks heroine Qualify, he has been employed as a pacemaker in both the English and Irish version of the Derby, so this looks to be the first time that he will tackle 1m4f as a contender in his own right. Nevertheless, he has been highly tried at this sort of level and will likely come up short once more.


His stablemate The Major General is a Listed winner over this trip so clearly has some ability but has a bit to find with a couple of these on recent form, notably Qatari Hunter. Jim Bolger’s colt has gone from strength to strength since winning on his handicap debut off a mark of just 74 in early June. Since then, he has reeled off a four-timer and landed a valuable handicap at Leopardstown last time out. He is clearly going the right way and although he steps up to 1m4f for the first time, he looks as though the extra two furlongs should suit him down to the ground. Galway had been mooted as an option for him but his canny handler seems to have found a decent opportunity at Group 3 level here and he could well have the required improvement to figure at the finish.

Steel Of Madrid wasn’t disgraced when fourth behind subsequent Eclipse winner Hawkbill in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot given the ground was very much on the soft side for him. Prior to that, he stayed on well to land the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket and shaped as though he should cope with the step up to 1m4f here. His main issue has been settling early on and if a steady pace is on offer here, he could blow his chance in the early part of the race.

MY Advice

PLATITUDE – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, William Hill, Coral)



3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1)


In a race dominated by three-year-olds over the past 10 years (6 winners) and in a sequel to the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, we see possibly the best three milers from the three-year-old age group, all Guineas winners, face off once again – Galileo Gold won the first renewal of the three-way battle, with The Gurkha in second and Awtaad in third. Hugo Palmer’s colt seemed to enjoy the cut in the ground at Ascot and benefitted from a masterful ride from Frankie Dettori, slipping his rivals while they eyeballed each other coming around the final bend. He is clearly a strong stayer at a mile who is very dangerous if left alone on the lead at any point, especially with the master Dettori on board. Although he’s never been outside of the first three in his career and while I find it difficult to see that record ending here, a price of 15/8 on fast ground that he’s avoided on the whole over the past year, doesn’t make huge appeal.

The Gurkha looked to be the unlucky loser in that contest at Royal Ascot, having to be switched out from a trapped position on the rail before staying on strongly to take second, but not being able to catch the English 2000 Guineas winner. He subsequently was outstayed by the improving Hawkbill up the Sandown Park hill in the Eclipse, but it was certainly not a bad effort and the return to this trip should suit him well. It will also be the first time that he’ll encounter good ground since his five and a half-length romp in the French Guineas. While he clearly handles the softer surface, he looked a very nice animal on the faster surface and if he is positioned a little further forward this time, I think he’s got every chance of reversing the form with Galileo Gold. The worry is that the Eclipse could well have taken a lot out of him, but he’s had a good three weeks to recover from that so should be ready to go for Aidan O’Brien.

The final member of the Guineas winners’ club is the Irish champion, AWTAAD. Trained by Kevin Prendergast, the Cape Cross colt was a stunning winner of the Irish Guineas on ‘yielding’ ground, putting Galileo Gold to the sword by the tune of two and a half lengths. However, he was third at Royal Ascot, not seeming to quicken on the sticky, soft ground, so this quicker ground should be much more suitable for him to put his speed down on, even though Prendergast has said the horse doesn’t want the ground too ‘hard’. The course will undoubtedly water the track to maintain a good/good-to-firm balance so it shouldn’t be too fast for him and if you take the way he beat Galileo Gold in Ireland literally, he has to hold very decent claims here. His price of around 7/1 looks much too big considering the form lines between the three Guineas winners and how short his two rivals are, so he’s certainly some excellent value considering this fast ground could well draw out even more improvement, as it does for many sons and daughters of Cape Cross.

In addition to the Guineas winners, there is one more three-year-old in the race in the form of the Richard Fahey-trained, Godolphin-owned Ribchester. He was excellent in the Jersey Stakes, where he beat a decent-looking field by two and a quarter lengths and he was third behind Galileo Gold in the 2000 Guineas. He wasn’t stopping at Newmarket, so the trip shouldn’t be an issue, but I just wonder whether he’s a better horse with some cut in the ground. Even so, he looks to be Godolphin’s first choice in this, with James Doyle on board, despite the presence of the classy, course-loving Toormore, so he needs plenty of respect.

Speaking of Toormore, he heads the older contingent and brings some superb course form into the equation, winning the Lennox Stakes last year and at this meeting in two of the last three years (2nd in the Lennox Stakes in 2014, winner of the Vintage Stakes in 2013). His defeat of Dutch Connection at Sandown on his reappearance was a nice effort, but apart from a fourth-place finish in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, he’s been a little disappointing, especially last time out in the Summer Mile on fast ground at Ascot. It may be that he needs a bit of cut in the ground at this stage of his career and it’s worth noting that only two five-year-olds have won this in the past ten years.

Lightning Spear beat Toormore home in the Queen Anne on soft ground and that was a huge performance from a horse that enjoys a much sounder surface, so I think we can expect the David Simcock-trained five-year-old to confirm form with that rival here. He’ll have his work cut out giving 8lbs away to the three-year-olds, but out of all the older horses, he’s the most lightly-raced so far in his career and he’s certainly the pick of those older horses battling to trouble the classic generation.

MY Advice

AWTAAD – 1pt win @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)

[bitchy]

3.45 Goodwood – Victoria Racing Club Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)


Probably one of the quickest races of the week and with fast ground forecast, it looks all set for a top-class performance from one of these juveniles.
Mark Johnston looks to hold a strong hand and according to the market, his main hope is The Last Lion who has yet to be out of the first two on his first five starts. He won the Brocklesby at Doncaster at the beginning of the season and got his head back in front last time when winning the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown. It is worth bearing in mind that both of those victories have come on soft ground however and it is possible that he is better with cut in the ground, so I think he is worth taking on.

His stablemate Yalta is dropping back to five furlongs for the first time, having disappointed in the Coventry and the July Stakes on his last two outings. He had looked pretty smart before then, making all here over six on his debut before drawing readily clear of his rivals at Pontefract next time. He showed plenty of speed when winning here earlier in the season so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the drop back in trip but he needs to bounce back.

David Evans’ Rapacity Alexander has a Listed win to her name having won in France last month, making all under a well-judged ride. She was well-fancied to follow up at Deauville in Group 3 company next time but was disappointing so comes here on a bit of a retrieval mission.

It can be dangerous to rule out any runner from the Aidan O’Brien stable but I find it hard to see Sportsmanship getting his head in front here. The War Front colt got off the mark at the third attempt last time beating stablemate Courage Under Fire, but that horse let the form down at Galway last night. This will be his first try over the minimum trip but he will need to take a big step forward on what he has done so far.

Last year’s winning stable must have a good chance of retaining their crown as they saddle Big Time Baby this time around. Tom Dascombe’s colt is two from three so far and his only defeat came in the Norfolk Stakes where his trainer believes he just went too fast early on. He is drawn towards the stands side rail so may be able to get out and force the pace and I think he can run better than his 10/1 price suggests.

However, he may have his work cut out to beat Ed Dunlop’s GLOBAL APPLAUSE who hasn’t done much wrong to date and made it two from three when winning the Listed National Stakes at Sandown in May. He finished fifth in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot last time despite not appearing to enjoy the softer ground and back on a sounder surface, he should be much more effective. He is drawn out towards the middle which might make life slightly more difficult for Frankie Dettori but he looked one of the leading two-year-olds in the early part of the season and I think he can land a first Group success here.


MY Advice

GLOBAL APPLAUSE – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power, SkyBet)



4.20 Goodwood – Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies’ Stakes


This looks to be a most competitive fillies’ maiden and Richard Hannon holds a strong hand with a quartet of runners. He has a couple of very interesting newcomers worth keeping an eye on headed by Sean Levey’s mount Promising. The daughter of Invincible Spirit was an expensive purchase as a yearling and looks to be all speed on paper being out of a 5.5f-6f dirt winner in the US. His other debutant Curry is another well-bred sort being out of Group 3 Brownstown Stakes winner Marvada but she may need more time as her dam did (came into her own as a four-year-old).

Hannon’s best chance could come in the shape of Suffragette City although she has to dispel a below-par effort at Newmarket last time. She is bred to be potentially very classy being a half-sister to the recently retired Illuminate and shaped well amidst greenness to finish third on her Windsor debut. She ran better than the ‘6’ next to her name suggests on her latest start having encountered trouble in running (although her tendency to hang left handed was a contributing factor) and has the scope to land a contest of this nature once she overcomes her inexperience.

That Newmarket contest could have a strong bearing here with two other re-opposing rivals taking their place in the line-up. Grand Myla fared best of the trio when causing a bit of a shock to finish third at 66/1. That was a much better effort than her racecourse bow at Bath but she proved pretty keen throughout and was allowed to dominate from the front which doesn’t look like being the case here.
Bouquet De Flores was a warm favourite having been backed into odds-on but couldn’t justify the strong market support. She is bred to be a decent filly as a half-sister to French Listed winner Inspiriter out of a Listed-winning dam in Floristry but seemed to lose her chance at the start having steadied herself in the stalls. She is entitled to benefit from that experience but this looks like a tough race for one that showed distinct signs of greenness.

Another that was well fancied to make a winning debut was Bithynia and the expensive Breeze-Up filly performed with credit despite only finishing third. That race at Sandown was worked out very well with Grizzel (1st), Naafer (2nd), Night Law (5th and Whiteley (last) all getting their heads in front since the race in May. She looked as though she was possibly done for a bit of speed as she had the run of the race on the rail so the step up to 6f should be ideal for her here and the fact that she still has an entry in the Lowther Stakes certainly catches the eye.

However, marginal preference is for Andrew Balding’s PERFECT ANGEL who looked clued up on her Newbury debut last month and is entitled to build on her ½-length second. The daughter of Dark Angel was out the back early doors but travelled powerfully into the race only to be worn down late on. That could be attributed to the pretty testing underfoot conditions and the faster going here should suit her better as she is out of a Kheleyf mare in The Hermitage (herself a fairly smart juvenile who finished second in the Listed Hilary Needler Trophy).

MY Advice

PERFECT ANGEL – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365)



4.55 Goodwood – EBF Veuve Clicquot Fillies’ Handicap.


A tricky little puzzle to try and solve but it may be prudent to side with the three-year-olds in receipt of a more than handy 10lb allowance.

Rioca looked to be progressing into a black-type filly for Sir Mark Prescott last campaign and was rewarded when a decent second in the Listed Montrose Stakes on her final start. It is a bit of a surprise that she has not yet reappeared this campaign and that would count against her here as she looked to take a few races to get up to speed last term. Nevertheless, if she carries on from where she left off her juvenile season, she will have a big say in matters here.

However, preference is for recent Newmarket scorer SHAAN who looks to be on a steep upward curve at present and can land her third win of the season. The Al Shaqab filly finished a good second in a competitive Kempton maiden at the back end of last season and put that experience to good use when shedding her maiden tag at the next time of asking from two subsequent winners. She was quietly fancied on her handicap debut at Chelmsford and ran respectably in second behind Mise En Rose who landed a valuable pot at the Newmarket July Festival earlier this month. She followed that up with a fine third taking on the boys at Sandown before the step up to 1m2f really seemed to bring the best out of her last time out as she made all for a decisive victory. A 4lb rise for that victory seems more than fair and I don’t think the assessor has found the ceiling of her just yet.

Sagely is an interesting contender given how progressive she was in the early part of the season. The daughter of Frozen Power broke her duck at Wolverhampton back in March and made a mockery of her opening mark of 80 when sluicing up at Ripon a couple of months later. She was turned out quickly under a penalty at York and ran with credit to finish second to the subsequent Listed Lyric Stakes winner Diploma, just showing signs that her recent exertions had taken their toll late on. However, she now has a bit to prove on a career-high mark of 90 and on the back of a particularly disappointing effort at Newcastle last time out (for all that she was stepping up markedly in grade to pattern company).

She is the more fancied of the Ed Dunlop pair in this with top weight Sagaciously also representing La Grange Stables. The four-year-old is a half-sister to Sagely which makes this a bit of a family affair and is another that has questions to answer on the back of a disappointing display last time. She has done most of her racing over longer trips than this but was successful over an extended 1m2f at Doncaster three starts back and arrives here on only a 5lb higher mark. It will prove no easy task to give weight all round here though.

One that has proved a bit of an enigma this season is Intimation who hasn’t really hit the expected heights since hacking up in a Leicester handicap over a year ago. She remains lightly-raced with the promise of more to come given that she is bred in the purple and trained by the master of older fillies and mares Sir Michael Stoute but hasn’t been given any help by the assessor and remains on a career-high mark of 90 despite a couple of average efforts. The suspicion is that she may prove more effective with a bit of cut in the ground as well which makes her a bit of a risky proposition at present.

MY Advice

SHAAN – 1pt win @ 7/2 (SkyBet, BetVictor)



5.25 Goodwood – NatWest Stakes (Handicap)


Currently, the market for this 20-runner contest is centred on the William Haggas-trained Afjaan, a progressive four-year-old who hasn’t been out of the first two in his four starts on the racecourse. Draw and ground should prove no issue for him and the Henrythenavigator gelding should certainly be up there challenging at the very least come the finish. The form of his close second at Lingfield last-time-out to Red Box was franked superbly as the winner of that race went on to win the Listed Valiant Stakes at Ascot (albeit as a result of a stewards’ enquiry) and Taurean Star, who finished third, ran well behind Mustashry in a very hot handicap at the same venue. There really aren’t many negatives, but the price does count as one – 7/2 in a 20-runner handicap is always short and especially on this track, where 20 runners can cause chaos, especially if he misses the break a little from stall 1. Frankie Dettori will have to be at his best to make sure the horse won’t get trapped in.

Pastoral Player won this contest last year and comes into this year’s renewal on a 5lb higher mark, but with decent claims of repeating the feat once again. The nine-year-old has suddenly hit form again in the past couple of months, winning over C&D and then finishing a close second on soft ground in a conditions event at Doncaster, a length and three quarters in front of the re-opposing Jack’s Revenge. That form alone probably wouldn’t be good enough to win this, especially with an 8lb swing in the weights, so you might expect the placings there to be reversed. Jack’s Revenge may not have won since July 2012, but he’s posted good efforts in defeat in many of his races over that period – he’s now down to his lowest mark since that win and is in good form, so a return to the winners’ enclosure may not actually be far away.

Winner of a C&D handicap in early June on similar ground to that he’ll encounter here, Mick Channon’s Arnold Lane holds fair claims of making an impact here on his best form. However, he will have to bounce back in a big way from his last few runs after that win, the best effort of those three races being a modest seven-length second in a claiming race at Epsom. However, his style of leading should keep him out of trouble and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is a positive so he can’t be written off at a double-figure price.

Another at a fairly big price who has some decent form in the book is David O’Meara’s Rex Imperator, who enjoys this faster ground and is a solid horse at this level. The Royal Applause gelding has won over six furlongs and despite never having won over seven; his turn of foot will be useful at a tight track such as Goodwood. A mark of 90 is by no means unworkable, as he showed when third to Brazos in a competitive heat at Doncaster last time out and he could go very well under Daniel Tudhope if the draw (12) or the trip doesn’t inconvenience him.

However, there is another at double figure odds that really catches my eye and that’s Dean Ivory’s three-year-old TWIN SAILS. After three disappointing runs at the start of this season in some very good company, the drop down to a handicap in this class combined with the application of first-time blinkers helped him to put in an excellent performance in an apprentice handicap at York where he gave away plenty of weight but was just short-headed by Dawaa, who went on to run very well in a Classy fillies’ handicap at Newmarket on her next run, finishing just half a length away from the smart Spangled. That handicap at York has worked out very well indeed over the past few weeks – the third placed Quick N Quirky and the fifth placed Company Asset went on to run very well behind Hawatif in a decent fillies’ handicap at Newmarket, while the fourth placed Ice Age won next time out at Windsor. A mark of 95 is 10lbs lower than where Twin Sails started the season and there must be plenty of juice in it judging by his good two-year-old form. Obviously there is the chance that the blinkers won’t work as well second time out, but he just looked as if he’d rediscovered the spark that helped him to finish just three quarters of a length behind Galileo Gold in last year’s Vintage Stakes and if he can put his best foot forward under Dane O’Neill, 14/1 is a very generous price.

MY Advice

TWIN SAILS – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Sky Bet)

[Istabraq]

Not a mill

Stars Over The Sea @ 9/1
Notarised @ 7/1
Hay Chewed @ 12/1
Haggle @ 6/1

Yankee

Hit the bar a few times there mayo, hopefully you were e/w with the yankee....

[Old Vic]

Keep em coming Bitchy.

[Istabraq]

After a very average day today, salvaged only by a decent bet on AOBs horse after mine was pulled out, I have some making up to do but only one horse interests me tomorrow, 2.00 Moscato.

Bitchy is right that his selection could easily stay this trip but that has to be taken on trust, my selection is guaranteed to get the trip and that is worth plenty for me.
Ran very well at Ascot getting close to Jennys Jewel, from that race Qewy almost got up today and Totalize won a good heat when sent back over timber a couple of weeks ago, Moscato wasn't stopping that day and has wins to his name on quick ground and crucially has run well here before.
8/1 is probably a fair price and I can't see many staying on past him.....

[mayo]

Bitchy

A hit the bar day for me yesterday but still trying.

[Istabraq]

Moscato no good for me today but the next installment of stayers races comes tomorrow and I like Curbyourenthusiasm.
Ran really well at York behind Clever Cookie and looks like the step up to 2m will suit well, 13/2 each way for me.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Curbyourenthusiasm for me too. I'm on a losing streak of almost 30 selections so badly in need of a winner.

[mayo]

Ill follow you in.

[bitchy]

The 'Glorious' Qatar Goodwood Festival DAY 3 OF 5

26/7/2016 ---30/7/2016




2.00 Goodwood – Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap)


As these kind of contests always are at ‘Glorious Goodwood’, this mile and a quarter handicap for three-year-olds is a fiercely competitive affair, with plenty of very sharp looking types taking their chance.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Stargazer heads the market at the time of writing and is likely to go off favourite and it’s easy to see why. He’s progressed steadily through his four runs so far and the form of his maiden victory last-time-out at Sandown Park is decent, with the likes of Lovell, Harrison and Gershwin all in behind. He’s gone up 9lbs for that win and even though that’s a substantial hike dished out by a handicapper trying to take no chances, it’s perfectly possible that this Canford Cliffs colt will have progressed enough to overcome his new mark. Ryan Moore takes the ride, which is another boost, but there are a couple of concerns. The draw in 16 is far from ideal, Moore will have to be at his best to make sure the horse gets a decent position, and he’s never raced on any ground faster than good yet, so it’s a question to be answered.

One who will certainly enjoy the fast ground and will have no issues with the draw is Roger Charlton’s Group 2 Great Voltigeur entry, High Shields. That entry alone reflects how highly regarded this Shamardal colt is and the booking of Frankie Dettori is further evidence that a big run is expected here. After winning his maiden over C&D in excellent style, he was a two-length fourth to Manjaam in an Ascot handicap over a mile and a half, which seemed a little too much for him on just the fifth run of his career. This drop back to a mile and a quarter should suit, and if he can set the fractions, as he did when winning his maiden here, he’ll be a huge threat to all. He does, though, seem a slow burner of a horse, who’s been improving slowly and will be better as he gets older, so this could be a little too much for him again after he was (a little harshly) raised a pound in the handicap for his last effort.

Another highly-regarded horse (held a Derby entry at one stage) is William Haggas’ Dwight D, who’s been quite ambitiously campaigned as a three-year-old, being well-beaten in both the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown Park and the Group 3 Chester Vase, before bouncing back nicely to finish a never-nearer third in a competitive Newmarket handicap that included a few of these re-opposing rivals. That was his handicap debut, his first run after being gelded and his first run in cheekpieces, so clearly all of those measures helped him to bounce back and after being raised just a pound for that, he’s certainly entitled to run another good race here. The Duke Of Marmalade gelding is now 5lb better off with the winner of that race Ode To Evening, so the 2 and a half lengths between the pair could well disappear. Dwight D was also the only horse to have raced from off the pace (missed the break) to get into contention, so that effort can be marked up even further – a mark of 85 could be very lenient and I can’t see him being out of the frame unless traffic problems ruin his race.

Mark Johnston has won this race four times in the past ten years and he’s got four entered in this year’s renewal – Ode To Evening, who may struggle to confirm the form with Dwight D given the swing in the weights, Champagne City, who I’m not sure stays this trip that well, Abareeq, who is engaged at Sandown on Wednesday evening and Montsarrat, who may well be the one to focus on despite being a double-figure price at the time of writing. Firstly, the negatives: he’s drawn 17 and has gone up 7lb for his last run (third behind Ventura Storm in a Listed race at Hamilton). However, he has a prominent style of racing and is usually quick from the gates, which should help to overcome the bad draw and taking that Listed form literally, he was only three and a half lengths behind the now 103 rated Ventura Storm on ground that would have been softer than ideal, so a mark of 95 may not be beyond him at all back on a quicker surface. His jockey, Franny Norton, also rides Goodwood particularly well, sporting a strike rate of 15% over the last 5 years and a level stakes profit of over £46, so you know the assistance from the saddle will be good as well. When Johnston’s got this many in a middle-distance handicap here at Goodwood, you should always make sure you have at least one of them on side and MONTSARRAT could represent excellent value at around 18/1, so he’s my selection in what looks a hugely open contest.

There is also a hugely unexposed one to note, even though this race has tended to favour those three-year-olds with a bit more experience, and that’s You’re Hired who represents Amanda Perrett, another trainer who does well at this track. This son of Dalakhani has performed very well in his first three starts, winning over seven furlongs on his third attempt and finishing just a length and a quarter behind the classy Midterm in a maiden at Newbury last year. Everything he’s shown so far has suggested that this step up in trip will suit and coupled with his sire being a multiple Group 1 winning (French Derby, Arc etc) middle distance horse and his dam being the same dam of the impressive 620,000gns Frankel colt, Seven Heavens, you’d think there would be plenty more to come from him. A mark of 80 really could be a blot if the colt can overcome any inexperience and he also holds claims if getting the breaks from stall 14.

MY Advice

MONTSARRAT – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet Victor, William Hill)


2.35 Goodwood – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2)


It isn’t very often that you get the first two home in the July Stakes turning up here and neither are favourite but this is the position we find ourselves in here as BLUE POINT is well-fancied to make it three from three. Charlie Appleby’s colt overcame greenness to beat a more experienced rival on his debut but he took a big step forward when winning at Doncaster last time. He was always handy under James McDonald but he cruised clear of his rivals on the bridle and he was pushed out in the closing stages to win by eleven lengths at the line. It was arguably the most impressive performance from a two-year-old this season and the strong record of favourites in the race only further enhances his claims. Clearly this is a big step up in grade but looked a smart prospect last time and he could just improve past these.
The July Stakes winner has followed up in the last two renewals of this race and Richard Hannon will be hoping that Mehmas can give the yard a sixth winner in the last ten years. The Acclamation colt has done well this season, winning three of his five starts, with his only defeats coming over an inadequate five furlongs at Sandown and his fine second in the Coventry Stakes. He isn’t the biggest and I wonder whether the 3lb penalty might just prevent him from showing his absolute best on this occasion. He still rates the main danger to the favourite however.

Intelligence Cross was a running-on second in the July Stakes for all that he never looked as though he would get to the winner. That may have largely been down to his slow start, which meant that he was still last with two furlongs to go under Ryan Moore. He has now had three runs so connections will be hoping that he is sharper from the stalls and there doesn’t look to be much between him and Mehmas on their Newmarket form.

The big disappointment at Newmarket was John Gosden’s Ardad who had run out an impressive winner of the Windsor Castle on just his second start. He was trying six furlongs for the first time and weakened tamely in the closing stages and he looks to have something to prove over this trip.

The field is completed by Charlie Hills’ Waqaas who got off the mark at the third attempt at Doncaster last month, although he did bump into the smart Dream of Dreams on his second start. He has an entry in the Gimcrack later in the season and this run will tell connections more about his prospects on stepping into Group company.

MY Advice

BLUE POINT – 1.5pts win @ 10/11 (SkyBet)


3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2)


This looks to be an ultra-competitive renewal and Big Orange could well have his hands full in a bid to emulate the likes of Further Flight and Double Trigger in landing back-to-back renewals. The strapping five-year-old comes into this year’s race following a similar path having landed the Group 2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes on his latest start. Apart from bombing out in the Lonsdale Cup following his Goodwood win, he has been pretty consistent since, running a blinder when fifth in the Melbourne Cup and just being denied by Vazirabad in the Dubai Gold Cup back in March. As the highest rated horse in the field, he rates the one to beat and there may just be a couple of unexposed stayers in this line-up that could serve it up to him.

Curbyourenthusiasm has bypassed engagements in some of the top staying races since finishing a narrow second in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup back in May. The ground went against him after that and he remains one to keep a watchful eye on stepping up to two miles for the first time. The way in which he finished off his race at York suggested that this trip shouldn’t be an issue and he is a player.

However, preference is for his stablemate SHEIKHZAYEDROAD who stepped up markedly in trip and created a fine impression when staying on (despite hanging markedly late on) to finish third in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. The seven-year-old has been a consistent performer for connections for some time and is a Grade 1 winner having landed the Northern Dancer Turf Stakes over 1m4f at Woodbine back in 2014. He was in the midst of running a big race in this last year until hanging right and losing all chance which is a slight concern as he may prove to be better going left handed but given his proven form at the highest level, he looks to be well overpriced.

Last year’s runner-up Quest For More was only narrowly denied on that occasion and has put in some respectable efforts since. He did seem to be in the form of his life this time last year though and although a couple of placed efforts in a pair of 1m6f Listed races at York is fair form in the book, it is possibly a little short of what is required to go one better this time round. The step back up to 2m and fast underfoot conditions will be in his favour though.

Pallasator is another grand old stager who turns out in the top staying races year on year and finished fourth in last year’s Goodwood Cup. His main issue is his temperament and he often threatens to lose his race on the way to the start by sweating up and proving more than a handful. Nevertheless, that doesn’t seem to affect him in a negative way as much as one would think and, on his day, he can prove to be a top competitor. He was given a bit of a stinker by Oisin Murphy in the Coral Marathon last time and was still only beaten just over a length into fourth so is clearly not one to rule out.

On paper, Sword Fighter looks to be thrown in receiving 17lb from the rest of the field. However, three-year-olds have a pretty terrible record in this despite the excessive weight-for-age allowance and you have to go back to 1990 to Lucky Moon for the last horse aged three to be triumphant. The Ballydoyle colt was a shock 33/1 winner of the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot but proved that no fluke when following up in the Group 2 Curragh Cup just over a week later. He has never raced on anything as quick as the ground he will face here but connections seem to think he will handle it well so the only nagging doubt is the fact that he has shown his best form when given an uncontested lead. It seems unlikely that he will be allowed everything his own way up front in a race as competitive as this.

MY Advice

SHEIKHZAYEDROAD – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Coral, Paddy Power)

[bitchy]

3.45 Goodwood – Markel Insurance Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3)


A small field and a somewhat disappointing line-up for this stayers’ Group 3 for fillies and mares, with only two Listed wins appearing as the best form on offer.

One of those Listed wins came just two weeks ago and it was the new recruit to the Ralph Beckett stable, Pamona who bounced back to form in the Silver Cup Stakes at York over this trip. Even though she was receiving 5lbs from the field, she showed her old spark again as she cruised through the race and stayed on well in the final furlong to beat Barsanti and Quest For More by two and four lengths respectively. The switch from Luca Cumani’s yard seems to have revitalised her and if she can build on her last run and rediscover the form that saw her finish third in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes last season, she’ll have a superb chance in a race that seems to lack real quality. Trainer Beckett also won the race last year with Simple Verse and while Pamona wouldn’t be in her class, she does have a considerably weaker field to overcome, but the market has already found her, being as short as 2/1 in places.

Mill Springs is the other Listed winner in the race, by virtue of her two and a quarter length success over stablemate Secateur in the Noel Murless stakes at Ascot over this one and three quarter mile trip. The John Gosden-trained filly ran well over two and a half miles in the Ascot Stakes last time out, finishing third on softer ground than would be ideal. She clearly stays well, but this 1m 6f looks to be a step back in trip that she won’t find an issue with and she should go well under Frankie Dettori.

Sir Michael Stoute won the race back in 2007 with Hi Calypso and he’s represented in this year’s renewal by YARROW, a fast-ground loving daughter of Sea The Stars. She looked a very promising filly before she was pulled up with an issue in the Queen’s Vase last year and things went off the rails a little in her two runs after that, but a close second in the Listed Castle Stakes over a mile and a half at Pontefract could well indicate that she’s getting back to her old self. She was never-nearer than at the line in that race, so this step up to a mile and six furlongs could well draw out more improvement. The filly is from a very nice family and Stoute has taken his time with her, nursing her back to form and today, with the assistance of Ryan Moore, in a weak looking contest for the grade on her preferred quick surface, could be a great chance to register that first pattern success.

Twitch ran a good race under a clever ride from James McDonald last time out at Newmarket in what seemed like a competitive handicap, but they finished well strung out at the end and the form looks a little suspect. However, she handled the ground and the undulations of that track well, putting her in good stead for this test and if she can dictate up front again in this small field, she could be the one to catch at the two furlong pole. However, Hugo Palmer’s filly has only been tried at this far and it wasn’t a roaring success as she weakened entering the final furlong at York, so it’s a genuine concern.

John Gosden saddles two in the race and even though jockey bookings suggest otherwise, California must have a chance in what could become a muddling affair. She won a 1m4f Ascot handicap well on her last run under this pilot and looks ready for this step back up in company and trip. She’s another who will enjoy the ground, so she can’t be confidently ruled out, even though she’ll have to improve once again.


MY Advice


YARROW – 1pt win @ 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power)



4.20 Goodwood – Dove 100 Colours EBF British Stallion Studs Maiden Fillies’ Stakes


Some pretty decent form on show here with four runners-up and a third last time out in the line-up. AMABILIS sets a high standard and could be the one to beat on the back of her fine runners-up effort in a hot-looking maiden at the Newmarket July Festival earlier this month. The Juddmonte filly is a half-sister to a three-time winning sprinter out of a Listed-placed dam who herself was a half-sister to Group 1 winner Mutual Trust so she is certainly bred in the purple. She shaped most encouragingly on debut and battled all the way to the line without quite getting to Dabyah. Her race awareness was particularly pleasing given her lack of experience and the way she stayed on up the stiff July Course finish suggested that the step up to 7f here should suit her down to the ground.

She may not have it all her own way and Irish raider Rhododendron may be the one to give her most to think about. She is from a typically classy Coolmore family being out of the triple Group 1 winner Halfway To Heaven. She shaped with promise, despite being soundly beaten in the end, on her debut at the Curragh last month and the fact she holds entries in a pair of Group 2s in the Lowther Stakes and Debutante Stakes suggests that connections must think her capable of a great deal more.

Manama is another worthy of consideration having also finished runner-up in a tasty-looking Newmarket maiden earlier this month. She was beaten two lengths and possibly didn’t shape as though she could be destined for great things but is another with an entry in the Debutante Stakes and cannot be discounted given Charlie Appleby’s phenomenal 37% strike-rate with juveniles so far this term.
The sextet of newcomers in the field don’t appeal greatly on pedigree but it may be worth keeping an eye on the betting for any significant moves for the likes of Berengaria and Silver Link.

MY Advice

AMABILIS – 1pt win @ 13/8 (SkyBet)



4.55 Goodwood – Telegraph Nursery Stakes (Handicap)
Nurseries can be notoriously tricky and with a number of big price winners in the recent past, it might be worth casting our net a little further than normal in search of a winner.

Mark Johnston often has a good week at this meeting and he saddles three horses at the top of the weights in this contest. The top weight is Montataire who has won his last three starts including a nursery off a mark of 82 at Newmarket last week. He saw out the seven furlongs well on that occasion and is hard to rule out under a 6lb penalty.

His stablemate Teofonic is another who comes here carrying a penalty, with the filly having won on her handicap debut at Catterick last week. She forged clear in the closing stages under Franny Norton to win with plenty in hand despite carrying top weight and it is hard to see her not being in the shake-up in the hands of Franny Norton.

The last of the trio is Bear Valley who got off the mark at the third attempt at Epsom a couple of weeks ago, making all to win well at the line. Silvestre De Sousa mentioned last time that the colt was very coltish beforehand so he had surprised them and with that in mind there should be more to come from him.

Charlie Hills’ Hurricane Rush finished runner-up to Mark Johnston’s colt on that occasion but just didn’t handle the undulations of the track as well as the winner. That would cause some concern about him running here but followers of my 2yo service will be aware that we backed him to win on his second start. He gets a 5lb pull with the winner for that latest run and whilst I think he will run well, I would prefer him on a more conventional track.

The Hannon yard has also picked up this prize a few times in recent years and their main hope looks to be Geneva Convention who improved from a promising debut at Salisbury to win well at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. The faster ground seemed to really play to the colt’s strengths and his jockey spoke fondly of him after that run. He doesn’t look to have been too harshly treated with a mark of 80 and can go close under Kieran O’Neill.

Ed Dunlop’s Global Revival didn’t show much on his first three starts, but having been gelded ahead of his latest run, he got off the mark in taking fashion under Silvestre De Sousa. He was slowly away from the stalls but ran on strongly in the closing stages to pick up the leader and win going away at the line. This will be a tougher assignment than the one he faced that day but the gelding operation seems to have been the making of him so it would be no surprise to see him go well.

However, the one who catches the eye is DEVLISH GUEST who attracted market support on his first two starts and I don’t think we have seen the best of this 180,000 guineas yearling just yet. Mick Channon won this race last year and has had a host of placed horses in recent years so clearly targets this contest. The Dark Angel colt was sent off the 5/4 favourite on his debut but was too green to do himself justice and once again performed below expectation next time. He was only seventh on his last run but having been held up, he made good late headway under his young rider to be beaten just over five lengths at the line. The form has been boosted with the runner-up winning in France at the weekend and the winner acquitted himself well at Ascot on Saturday as well. He sits towards the bottom of the weights and from a good draw in stall 8 I think he can step forward on what he has done so far.


MY Advice


DEVLISH GUEST – 0.75pt e/w @ 14/1 (SkyBet)



5.30 Goodwood – Tatler Stakes (Handicap)


We have a five furlongs sprint to close the card Ron Harris’ Just Glamorous must be high on any shortlist having won his last three starts, including at York last Friday. The gelding was well-backed beforehand and having led for much of the way, he just managed to hold on in the closing stages. He runs here off a career-high mark of 94 but he is likely to be quickly away from the stalls and it will be a case of whether anything is quick enough to peg him back.

Another arriving in good form is Mick Channon’s Kassia who has won her last two starts at Bath, most recently when drawing clear of her rivals on quick ground a couple of weeks ago. That was her third win in her last four starts and she is clearly thriving on her racing at present. She has only gone up 6lb for that latest win and connections believe that she can go on improving, so that rise may not be unsurmountable.

Charlie Hills’ A Momentofmadness may have misfired at Newmarket last time but I think the colt is worth forgiving that effort as he was always too keen over six furlongs. Prior to that he had looked a sprinter on the up, winning three times most recently at Salisbury in June. He should appreciate the drop back in trip and with James McDonald continuing to ride as well as anyone, he can’t be ruled out at around the 16/1 mark.

Laughton, trained by Kevin Ryan continues to creep up the weights despite having finished second on his last two starts and he will need to break better than he did at Chester if he is to get his head in front here. He did good late work under Shane Gray but the winner had too much in hand at that stage and he could only get within three-quarters of a length at the line. He is only 1lb higher for that effort here and if things drop right then he shouldn’t be too far away.

The same can also be said for Richard Fahey’s Paddy Power who has run well from his current mark in the past and he showed signs of a return to form when fourth at Newmarket last weekend. He might have finished closer to the winner had he got a clear run and whilst he is not the most frequent of winners, Jamie Spencer has been booked, which suggests a big run is expected.
However, the one I like the look of is EXCEED THE LIMIT who has only had two runs in Britain since leaving the care of H-A Pantall. He shaped with promise on his first start at Sandown before being thrown into a conditions event at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago. Despite being wrong at the weights with a number of his rivals, he ran well to finish fifth, beaten just over two lengths by the winner Monsieur Joe. He is now dropped back into handicap company and I’m sure Robert Cowell believes he can land a nice prize with this colt. The quicker ground should be fine for him and with the in-form Adam Kirby booked to ride, I fancy him to run well.


MY Advice

EXCEED THE LIMIT – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (SkyBet)

[Istabraq]

Goodwood far leas glorious that I remember lol
Roll on October.....