The Rasen Sat 16 July

[Istabraq]

Market Rasen's big Summer meeting is coming up this Saturday with a few decent horses on show, Channel 4 cover two races, the 2m Listed handicap hurdle and the 2m 5f handicap chase also a Listed event.

The hurdle race looks to revolve around the very progressive Gwafa who rounded off last season winning the Swinton, Paul Webbers 5yo could be a top class performer if continuing to progress.
He must defy a 6lb rise for his Haydock win but that seems fair given the competitive nature of the race, a winner on quick ground on the level too, if fit and fully wound up this one has to take alot of beating.
He will have to concede weight to all and that includes the Nicholls 4yo Moabit who has been hacking up in weak fields this Summer and Dan Skeltons Red Tornado.

The chase is headed by Ballynagour who, if showing up, will love the ground but I remember this horse from his early days when he was blighted by blood vessel problems and needed plenty of rest between his races, I don't know if the Pipe team have resolved those issues but the fact the horse ran in France just 3 weeks ago would concern me.
Skelton runs Long House Hall in this who found just Diamond King too good in the Coral Cup, equally talented over birch though less exposed having had just three chase runs, he could easily improve.

Good to have some quality jump action back.....

[mayo]

Jumps

Looks to be a decent enough turnout. Ill be punting. Midlands National on Friday at Kilbeggan too .

Galway not too far away.

[racecaller13]

The Betfred Summer Plate, which takes place at Market Rasen on Saturday 16th July, is a listed handicap chase, run over 2M 6½F. Peter Bowen has done well in the race recently, winning 4 of the last 12. The 888Sport Handicap Chase, which is run over the same CD in September of previous year, often provides clues to this.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-2

6yo: 1-3-18

7yo: 4-6-36

8yo: 1-8-33

9yo: 2-4-31

10yo: 2-2-18

11yo+: 0-2-11

The ages of winners has been fairly evenly spread out. All 10 winners were aged 6 to 10.



Breeding

Irish bred: 8-16-86

French bred: 2-6-30

GB bred: 0-2-26

USA bred: 0-1-5

Other: 0-0-2

10 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred.

3 of the 4 French bred winners since 2000 came from the Pipe stable.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 0-7-26

Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 4-6-41

Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 5-5-49

Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 1-7-33

Top Weights: 22PP543P0279 (0-5-12)

Last 10 winners carried between 10-6 and 11-5.

Since 2003, horses carrying a penalty (1-2-4) have gained a win and 2 places from 4 runners.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 138 or higher: 1-6-37

Horses rated 127 to 137: 9-16-98

Horses rated 126 or lower: 0-3-14

9 of 10 winners (last 7) were officially rated 127 to 135



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start

6 of 10 winners won last time out

8 of 10 winners ran at Stratford, Worcester or Ffos Las last time

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed chase starts

8 of 10 winners had won a chase since 1st April (2 exceptions placed in class 2 handicap chase on only start since 1st April)

8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 11 chases (2 exceptions had run in 18 or 19)

9 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases (exception had run in 13)

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 3F or further

8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (2 exceptions had won a class 4 but placed in listed handicap chase or hurdle)

0 of 10 winners had won a NH race in Great Britain worth more than £13,000



Other Races

Highest placed finisher from Prelude H'cap Chase here in Sept: 18581318 (3-1-8)

Don Noble Handicap Chase winner (Cut The Corner): 8PP (0-0-3)

Lisa Oldham Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Easy Street): 8 (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in Racing FX Prelude Handicap Chase, finishing 632

2 of 10 winners won a class 3 Ffos Las handicap chase last time

The last 3 novice winners won a Worcester or Stratford novice chase last time



Racing Tactics

2 of 10 winners made all

4 of 10 winners tracked leaders

4 of 10 winners were held up



Trainers

Peter Bowen (3-4-23) has won 3 back to back runnings between 2006 & 2008.

Jonjo O’Neill (2-3-16) won this in 2009 and also saddled the first 2 home in 2014.

David Pipe (1-2-9) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 9 runners since 2006. His father also had a strong record in the race (won it in 2002 & 2005).

Richard Newland (1-0-5) won this in 2013.

Paul Nicholls (0-3-9) & Alan King (0-2-8) have both saddled multiple placed finishers since 2006.



Price

No strong trends on the prices.

Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 of the last 10, showing a £1 level stakes profit of £2.50.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- French bred aged 6 or Irish bred aged 7 to 10

- Carrying between 10-6 and 11-5

- Horses carrying a penalty do well

- Officially rated 127 to 135

- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)

- Ran at Worcester, Stratford or Ffos Las on previous start

- Posted an RPR of 130+ in 1 or both of last 2 chase starts

- Has won over fences since 1st April 2016

- Has run 5 to 14 times over fences

- Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)

- Won over 2M 3F+

- Won a class 2 or 3 chase (but no higher)

- Previously finished in first 6 in Prelude H’cap Chase

- Trained by Peter Bowen, Jonjo O’Neill or David Pipe

[bitchy]

2:15 Market Rasen - Gwafa - @ 5/1

The Summer Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen. We haven't seen GWAFA since he won the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock in May but he still looks well-treated off a 7lb higher mark. The good ground and the sharp track will also allow him to make use of his Flat speed.I think he has the potential to win graded races over hurdles and this looks a perfect opportunity to continue his progression through the ranks. It's also worth mentioning that his half-brother, Australia Day, won this race back in 2010.

[Istabraq]

2:15 Market Rasen - Gwafa - @ 5/1

Don't fancy the 11/2 bitchy ?
Good to see you back buddy

Todays darts:

The Rasen
1.45 Milrow - nicked some 10/11 earlier, looks a decent recruit
2.15 Gwafa - 11/2 e/w
2.45 Long House Hall 6/1 e/w
3.55 Totalize 9/1 e/w, this one flies under the radar but is a decent horse, not far behind Jennies Jewel in the R Ascot marathon handicap and has some very good hurdling form to his name, I'm shocked this one can be backed at 10/1 (for those who haven't been red carded by Paddy Power !)

Curragh
5.45 Seventh Heaven 25/1 e/w, just looking for value

Newmarket
3.15 Dutch Uncle 18/1 e/w
3.50 Taqaareed 3/1 e/w

Newbury
2.30 Sing Your Song 100/30 e/w
3.00 Scottish 7/4 win, this is a cracking opportunity for this horse, expected a shade of odds on, 7/4 great price
3.35 The Tin Man 4/1 e/w bring probably the best form of any into this, the insurance e/w price is a bonus
4.10 Mrs Danvers 8/1 e/w, trends pick only

Good luck all !

[Faugheen_Machine]

Only just seen this thread.

I'm guessing Ista is celebrating hard tonight. What a list of winners. Very well played sir!!!!!

[Istabraq]

Only just seen this thread.

I'm guessing Ista is celebrating hard tonight. What a list of winners. Very well played sir!!!!!

Cheers FM, had worse Saturdays......

[Old Vic]

Ista you are something else

Welcome back Bitchy.

[bitchy]

Thanks Old Vic ,, its good to be back roll on the new season