Bet 365 (Whitbread) Chase - early thoughts

[Istabraq]

The NH season draws to a close next weekend and I have to say I like what the BHA have done in allowing the NH a proper finale with an excellent dedicated card and not the mixed card that existed until a couple of years ago.
This year there is extra interest with the fight for the trainers championship going right to the wire.

The big race itself is not a strong trends race with horses aged 7-11 and carrying 10.00 to 11.12 including a couple from out the handicap all being successful in recent years, Bounce Back won as a 6yo in 2002 but he was the first since 1958.
The strongest trend is that all recent winners ran in either March or April though I'd be inclined to avoid horses who participated in the Grand National given there's just 14 days between the races.
As you'd imagine classier horses come to the fore so we're looking at horses who have won a class 1 or class 2 race and who have proven stamina.

Two I like, Paint The Clouds and Sausalito Sunrise.

Paint the Clouds was a warm order for this last year but over watering by course staff meant there were parts of the ground ran soft and Warren Greatrex's mount won't go a yard on soft ground, this one can't have ground quick enough.
A fast finishing third behind On The Fringe in Cheltenham Foxhunter proved his wellbeing, however, the early forecast has some beautiful Spring weather all week until Friday when there could be some heavy rain.
Paint The Clouds is very ground dependent so I won't be parting with a penny until I know what ground he gets.

Philip Hobbs Sausalito Sunrise is a classy gelding, winning big handicap pots at Cheltenham and Ascot this season beating some useful horses.

There's no guarantee either of these will make the race but their price is sure to contract should they be declared, I'm prepared to take a flyer before the 5 day decs on the Hobbs charge.

There is also a mouthwatering Celebration chase that could see Sprinter Sacre, Un de Sceaux, Special Tiara, Dodging Bullets and Gods Own taking each other on.

There's plenty of class in the shoulder races too making this a fitting season finale

[Morning Glory]

Southfield Theatre ? Stable cat would win at the minute.

[loveracing]

Did something take it out of Measureofmydreams at the fest or can we forgive his blunders in the SN?

I think the Cheltenham's NH 4m has some serious form behind it. It has already shown with Native River and Vicente.

I would also add Henri Parry Morgan into the mix.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've backed two so far. Southfield Theatre 16/1 and Theatre Guide 20/1. Been trying to find a quote from Tizzard as to whether this race is the plan for TG but can't find anything. He looked to be running a big race at Cheltenham when coming down and won't mind the extreme distance imo

[Istabraq]

What I find interesting is Mullins strategy for Sandown, he's entered the likes of Vatour, Vroum Vroum Mag and Un de Sceaux, no guarantee any of them will run but from a racing perspective is his new found focus on the British trainers championship going to slightly devalue the Punchestown festival which starts 3 days after Sandown ?
There are two elements for me, the connections of the horses who were probably thinking their horses were either done for the season or ready to challenge for a G1 prize at Irelands main festival, then there's the Irish public who will have been looking forward to seeing the best their country has to offer.

[Istabraq]

Ziga Boy is appearing on my radar....

[Morning Glory]

Ziga Boy is appearing on my radar....

Nice weight. King form better after a tricky spell? Thought his horses peaked in January

Hadrians Approach thoughts ?

[Istabraq]

I was worried about the King form too but he nicked a couple of winners in recent days, although weights go up you have to like his getting 20lb+ from top ones...

[MrMcGoldrick]

Not sure where to stick this, had word about a horse in the 7.05 at Taunton called Frozen over, don't know a thing about it but thought I'd mention it for interest sake

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not sure where to stick this, had word about a horse in the 7.05 at Taunton called Frozen over, don't know a thing about it but thought I'd mention it for interest sake

Thanks MrM. I'll have a look.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Thanks MrM. I'll have a look.

Hope u didn't have anything on FM, not sure where he got that, must have been someone trying to stitch him up, in fairness he mentioned one yesterday that I ignored and it finished 2nd at 10's, backed in from 16's, will watch a few to see if they're worth mentioning in future, hard enough to make money without throwing it away

[Istabraq]

Just done some work on the Select hurdle and it doesn't look to have a great deal of depth to it.
Vroum Vroum Mag is odds on, I know connections rate Limini much higher than VVM that's not to say that VVM isn't good but I can't help thinking Sandown is a massive afterthought for Mullins and his army and I'm not convinced his horses are guaranteed to be spot on.
This one takes up too much of the market for me.

This day last year Brother Ted spoiled the AP McCoy farewell beating his final mount, Box Office, scoring impressively in a handicap off 135, he was raised to 144 for a Pertemps qualifier at Kempton and beat none other than Silviniaco Conti comfortably, a further rise of 11lb was enough to stop him in a G2 at Ascot against Rock on Ruby but he still got to within 3l.
Only beaten 4l in the Coral Cup staying on well he now finds himself off a mark of 150 which would put him right in the mix for this race so I'm struggling to see why he is priced at around 40/1.
That just looks too big for me and I've had a small interest, will go in again after the decs

[Morning Glory]

Decs today for the Whitbread ? I am going to have a cut at Hadrians Approach if he is still there. 2lbs less than when winning here two years ago. Lightly campaigned this time with national in mind and while jumping still a concern 25s reflects that.


A bored bet

Hadrian's Approach @ 20/1
Brother Tedd @ 40/1
Sire De Grugy @ 16/1
Trixie, 4 bets ew

[Istabraq]

I thoughts were tomorrow FM, only the celebration chase gets a 48 hour dec, or so I thought

[loveracing]

Just done some work on the Select hurdle and it doesn't look to have a great deal of depth to it.
Vroum Vroum Mag is odds on, I know connections rate Limini much higher than VVM that's not to say that VVM isn't good but I can't help thinking Sandown is a massive afterthought for Mullins and his army and I'm not convinced his horses are guaranteed to be spot on.
This one takes up too much of the market for me.

This day last year Brother Ted spoiled the AP McCoy farewell beating his final mount, Box Office, scoring impressively in a handicap off 135, he was raised to 144 for a Pertemps qualifier at Kempton and beat none other than Silviniaco Conti comfortably, a further rise of 11lb was enough to stop him in a G2 at Ascot against Rock on Ruby but he still got to within 3l.
Only beaten 4l in the Coral Cup staying on well he now finds himself off a mark of 150 which would put him right in the mix for this race so I'm struggling to see why he is priced at around 40/1.
That just looks too big for me and I've had a small interest, will go in again after the decs

Good spot there Ista. He is clearly in form and his previous form wasn't great around Chelts anyway, so last months race was good a cracker for his standard. He's now weighted better off with a couple of potentials rivals here. 40/1 is way over priced!