Betway Lincoln handicap

[dazzler]

I think probably most of us suffering from festival blues and the last thing of interest would be a flat handicap But I do mix both codes and prefer NH season. I like the look of lord of the land for David O,meara, the trainer reminds me of Nicholls a bit in finding the right profile horse for big handicaps, obviously the draw can ruin any chance from the start. The market has found him at 10-1 he could well go in for some aintree tokens.
There,s a decent blog on this selection that's worth a look. Bitchy may be able to help us out on this one.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/tips/horse-racing/20160321-lord-can-reign-supreme-over-lincoln-rivals?dcmp=twt37

[Old Vic]

Dazzler

I know Ista and others would like to see a bit more life around here over the summer months.

If I cant add much it is because my flat knowledge is just a degree above zero...would be more than happy to hand board admin over to someone else for the summer months

[Istabraq]

If I cant add much it is because my flat knowledge is just a degree above zero...

Bar a short break there's usually some Summer NH action, you can't beat a class 6 bumper at Bangor in July !

[Istabraq]

I think probably most of us suffering from festival blues and the last thing of interest would be a flat handicap But I do mix both codes and prefer NH season. I like the look of lord of the land for David O,meara, the trainer reminds me of Nicholls a bit in finding the right profile horse for big handicaps, obviously the draw can ruin any chance from the start. The market has found him at 10-1 he could well go in for some aintree tokens.
There,s a decent blog on this selection that's worth a look. Bitchy may be able to help us out on this one.


https://m.oddschecker.com/t/tips/hor...als?dcmp=twt37

Dazzler - feel free to put thoughts up on any race, I need all the help I can get from May to September !

[mayo]

I also fall into the would like to but dont feel qualified to comment group. I can however cut and paste

[dazzler]

Lord of the land price starting to come in now, a little bit of 10's left, it will be intresting to see what R. Fahey runs he won it last year he has some nice runners again at bigger prices Gabriel's kaka could go well at a bigger price.

[Istabraq]

Seems to be a fair amount of blue across the board for a number of these but I guess that confirmation of 5 day decs.
Storm Rock seems to be one of the bigger prices who has been backed....

[MrMcGoldrick]

The Lincoln is a hard race to call ante post, there are usually half a dozen Gamble's half of which see their chance disappear by finding themselves in the wrong half of the draw

[Montelado]

What do you guys think of Ocean Tempest in this. Don't what the draw bias is or if a middle draw is a bad one

[Istabraq]

What do you guys think of Ocean Tempest in this. Don't what the draw bias is or if a middle draw is a bad one

I'll take any help offered for this.
Doesn't the middle/high draw give an advantage ?

[racecaller13]

The Betway Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 2nd April, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 3-7-57

5yo: 3-8-59

6yo: 4-7-51

7yo: 0-3-29

8yo+: 0-5-20

4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 77% of the runners.

There has only been one winner aged older than 6 in the past 20 years.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 4-12-65

Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 5-14-107

Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-4-44

9 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4.

Horses running with a penalty (1-2-12) have a fair record with 3 of 12 making the frame, and 1 winning.

Top weight: 0027604700 (0-2-10)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 99 or higher: 3-11-68

Horses rated 90 to 98: 7-18-136

Horses rated 89 or lower: 0-1-12

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 104.



Recent/Past Form

5 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 2 turf starts

8 of 10 winners (last 5) had had 15 or more career starts

9 of 10 winners previously gained 3 to 6 career wins

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicaps

9 of 10 winners won over 1M+ (exception was 2nd in previous year's Lincoln)

7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the year (2 of 3 exceptions had been racing in Dubai)

8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+

9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3 (exception won a listed race)



Other Races

SIS Handicap winner (Storm Rock): 41 (1-1-2)

Bunbury Cup winer (Rene Mathis): 81 (1-0-2)

Discovernewmarket.co.uk Handicap winner (Miss Van Gogh): 40 (0-1-2)

Record of first 5 from Discovernewmarket.co.uk H'cap to run in this (since 2000): 001014301540020320 (3-6-18)

3 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 700

2 of 10 winners ran in Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 80

2 of 10 winners ran in last year’s Lincoln, finishing 62

3 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous September to November



Trainers

Richard Fahey (2-5-24) trained the winner in 2012 & 2015 and saddled 2 placed finishers in 2013.

William Haggas (2-1-5) trained the winner in 2007 & 2010 and also the 3rd in 2012 & 5th in 2015.

John Quinn (2-1-9) trained the winners in 2006 & 2013.

John Ryan (1-0-4) & Michael Dods (1-0-3) have both saddled the winner in past 5 years.

David O’Meara (0-3-7) trained the 3rd & 4th in 2014 and also the runner-up in 2015.

Julie Camacho (0-2-2) saddled Rio Riva to be placed in 2007 & 2008.



Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2004-2015)

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 3-11-70

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 4-8-70

Horses drawn 15 or higher: 3-11-72

No strong trends on the draw, though the last 4 runnings at Doncaster on ground described as soft were all won by horses drawn in stalls 1 to 3, while the last 7 runnings here, on good to soft or firmer, were won by horses drawn 9 or higher. The Spring Mile, which takes place earlier on the Lincoln card, can often give pointers as where best to be drawn.



Price

No strong trends on prices, 5 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 while the other 5 winners have gone to horses priced 16/1 or higher.

Favourites (2-1-12) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 1.67.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 to 6

- Carrying 8-9 to 9-4

- Officially rated 95 to 104

- Finished in first 3 last time out

- Having first run of the season (or has run at Meydan this year)

- Won over 1M+ (or placed in this race last year)

- Previously gained 3 to 6 career wins

- Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps

- Previously won at listed to 3 level (but no higher)

- Won a race worth 11K+

- Finished in first 5 from discovernewmarket.co.uk at Newmarket in October

- Trained by William Haggas, John Quinn, David O’Meara or Richard Fahey

- If run on soft or heavy ground, drawn 1 to 3 (otherwise drawn 9 or higher)

[dazzler]

The one that I like at a bigger price is heavens guest 25-1 for an ew play in the race.
Long shot bet twist forecast.
Heavens guest
Lord of the land.

Good luck every1

[Istabraq]

Great stats racecaller....

[loveracing]

Gonna take a punt on Secret Brief 20/1. I think the slower ground will suit and was staying on well behind Udodoontu at Meydan.

[Istabraq]

The weight trend is something of a red herring this year, just 8lb between the lot and bottom weight carries 9st 2lb.
I like the look of Storm Rock and as he'd drawn bang in the middle David Probert will have the choice of moving across if there's any significant draw bias....