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The Peter Marsh Chase has been abandoned three times in recent years which makes it slightly more difficult race to analyse over a ten year period.
However the trends still hold their own when it comes to selecting winners of this race. In terms of age, the success of Wychwoods Brook last year meant that an eight or nine-year-old had been successful in seven of the last ten renewals. Only four of this year’s field of 13 sit within the desired bracket, the eight-year-old Splash Of Ginge and the trio of nine-year-olds Third Intention, Seventh Sky and Presenting Junior. Whilst horses older than this have done well in recent years, you have to go back to 1996 to find the last seven-year-old to land this prize, which doesn’t bode well for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Algernon Pazham.
Eight of the last ten renewals have been run on ground described as no better than ‘soft’ and with eighteen fences to face over a 3m trip, ground conditions must be brought into consideration. Looking back to all of the past ten winners, every single one had previously showed winning ability on soft or heavy ground. This year’s renewal looks to be no different with conditions described as heavy at the time of writing but all of this year’s field appear to have shown a liking for these conditions in the past.
As I mentioned above the Peter March can often turn into a bit of a slog and therefore there is no point taking a chance on a horse’s stamina. In fact, seven of the last ten winners had previous winning form over three miles or further. Third Intention and Splash Of Ginge are the only ones with stamina to prove having won over as far as 2m4f in the past.
The weight carried can often have a significant impact on the result especially in testing conditions as we saw last year when Samstown carried a low weight to victory. The ceiling in this case looks to be 11st 1lb as only three recent winners have carried more than that to success. When applying that to this year’s field it spells trouble for supporters of Virak, Third Intention (11st 10lb) and Seventh Sky (11st 5lb) despite the top two having 7lb claimers on their back.
Our Vic was a previous Grade 1 winner when he battled to success here in 2010 and while that is a slight extreme, the race can now boast the fact that seven of the last ten winners had previously been successful at Class 2 level or better. There is a quintet of runners without this on the resume, Algernon Pazham, Gas Line Boy, Man With Van, Universal Soldier and Fingal Bay although it is worth noting that the last named is a Class 1 winner over hurdles.
When looking at trainers, Sue Smith and Venetia Williams have both won this race twice in recent years and they are represented by Cloudy Too and Katenko respectively here. Both trainers have a fine record in the race and will be hoping they can add to that this year.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and with Lord Transcend the only winning favourite in the last ten renewals it is fair to say that this is not a race in which following the market leader has proved successful. Recent winning SPs of 33/1, 20/1 and 16/1 also suggest that it shouldn’t put us off taking a chance on an outsider.
Shortlist
CLOUDY TOO – 6/7
Katenko – 6/7
Presenting Junior – 6/7
Conclusion
In a race in which all of the runners miss at least one of our key trends, we are left with a trio of runners to pick from and the one who gets the nod is CLOUDY TOO. A former winner of the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby, Sue Smith’s ten-year-old has struggled for form since finishing second to Captain Chris in Grade 1 company in 2014 but the handicapper has slowly relented and there were signs of encouragement at Haydock last time. He now sits 11lb below his last winning mark and given his trainer’s fine record in the race I fancy him to run a big race.
Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Katenko who on his best form would have a leading chance in this contest. He was touted as a potential Gold Cup horse at one time but a bout of colic set him back and his only run of note in the last couple of years was in this race two years ago where he finished fourth. There wasn’t much to take from his return to action in December where he made a couple of bad jumping errors before being pulled up. The conditions on Saturday should suit him but he would need to step forward on his recent form to get his head in front.
The final member of the shortlist is Presenting Junior who races from 5lb out of the handicap for trainer Martin Todhunter. The only trend he misses is the trainer one but otherwise he has a strong profile, having won a Listed chase at Ayr back in April. He is probably a little too high in the handicap at present and although he has won on soft ground in the past, a lot of his better form has come on a sounder surface. However the trends have proved a good guide to this race in recent years and he could outrun his sizeable odds.
However the trends still hold their own when it comes to selecting winners of this race. In terms of age, the success of Wychwoods Brook last year meant that an eight or nine-year-old had been successful in seven of the last ten renewals. Only four of this year’s field of 13 sit within the desired bracket, the eight-year-old Splash Of Ginge and the trio of nine-year-olds Third Intention, Seventh Sky and Presenting Junior. Whilst horses older than this have done well in recent years, you have to go back to 1996 to find the last seven-year-old to land this prize, which doesn’t bode well for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Algernon Pazham.
Eight of the last ten renewals have been run on ground described as no better than ‘soft’ and with eighteen fences to face over a 3m trip, ground conditions must be brought into consideration. Looking back to all of the past ten winners, every single one had previously showed winning ability on soft or heavy ground. This year’s renewal looks to be no different with conditions described as heavy at the time of writing but all of this year’s field appear to have shown a liking for these conditions in the past.
As I mentioned above the Peter March can often turn into a bit of a slog and therefore there is no point taking a chance on a horse’s stamina. In fact, seven of the last ten winners had previous winning form over three miles or further. Third Intention and Splash Of Ginge are the only ones with stamina to prove having won over as far as 2m4f in the past.
The weight carried can often have a significant impact on the result especially in testing conditions as we saw last year when Samstown carried a low weight to victory. The ceiling in this case looks to be 11st 1lb as only three recent winners have carried more than that to success. When applying that to this year’s field it spells trouble for supporters of Virak, Third Intention (11st 10lb) and Seventh Sky (11st 5lb) despite the top two having 7lb claimers on their back.
Our Vic was a previous Grade 1 winner when he battled to success here in 2010 and while that is a slight extreme, the race can now boast the fact that seven of the last ten winners had previously been successful at Class 2 level or better. There is a quintet of runners without this on the resume, Algernon Pazham, Gas Line Boy, Man With Van, Universal Soldier and Fingal Bay although it is worth noting that the last named is a Class 1 winner over hurdles.
When looking at trainers, Sue Smith and Venetia Williams have both won this race twice in recent years and they are represented by Cloudy Too and Katenko respectively here. Both trainers have a fine record in the race and will be hoping they can add to that this year.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and with Lord Transcend the only winning favourite in the last ten renewals it is fair to say that this is not a race in which following the market leader has proved successful. Recent winning SPs of 33/1, 20/1 and 16/1 also suggest that it shouldn’t put us off taking a chance on an outsider.
Shortlist
CLOUDY TOO – 6/7
Katenko – 6/7
Presenting Junior – 6/7
Conclusion
In a race in which all of the runners miss at least one of our key trends, we are left with a trio of runners to pick from and the one who gets the nod is CLOUDY TOO. A former winner of the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby, Sue Smith’s ten-year-old has struggled for form since finishing second to Captain Chris in Grade 1 company in 2014 but the handicapper has slowly relented and there were signs of encouragement at Haydock last time. He now sits 11lb below his last winning mark and given his trainer’s fine record in the race I fancy him to run a big race.
Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Katenko who on his best form would have a leading chance in this contest. He was touted as a potential Gold Cup horse at one time but a bout of colic set him back and his only run of note in the last couple of years was in this race two years ago where he finished fourth. There wasn’t much to take from his return to action in December where he made a couple of bad jumping errors before being pulled up. The conditions on Saturday should suit him but he would need to step forward on his recent form to get his head in front.
The final member of the shortlist is Presenting Junior who races from 5lb out of the handicap for trainer Martin Todhunter. The only trend he misses is the trainer one but otherwise he has a strong profile, having won a Listed chase at Ayr back in April. He is probably a little too high in the handicap at present and although he has won on soft ground in the past, a lot of his better form has come on a sounder surface. However the trends have proved a good guide to this race in recent years and he could outrun his sizeable odds.
wd Bitchy
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