National hunt selections for 21/11/2015

[MrMcGoldrick]

Rock on Ruby going over half a mile less looks a solid option, possibly coupled with Top Notch from a resurgent Hendo yard to beat Irving, a horse that doesn't seem capable of putting in back to back winning performances. Nichols bullish though so you never can write one of his off. I also find it interesting that STD goes to Ascot rather than take the SC ride, are they thinking they can turn over Vautour first time out, I wouldn't be backing the latter at 1/3, I will be watching to see if he gets bogged down in the mud, assuming they have such a thing at Ascot.
Another one I like the look of is Lackamon from the Sue Smith yard, this horse will be in the mud as soon as he steps foot out of the stable at home, and most of his galloping probably takes place on it, with 3 runs under his belt he won't be lacking for fitness, he's an ew price to in the Haydock 12.40

[bitchy]

National hunt selections for 21/11/2015

12.55 Ascot – The BAM Construct UK Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (

A trappy looking affair with most of the main contenders possibly swerving the contest due to the likely testing conditions. However, that is likely to suit Astigos who was an eye-catching finisher when coming from way off the pace to finish fourth behind Padge at Ascot last month. He has a great deal of experience over fences which will undoubtedly hold him in good stead and he has shown his best form in Britain over three miles in testing conditions. Venetia Williams has made a name for herself with staying chasers and races of this ilk are right up her street. The major sticking point is the fact that he hasn’t won for 3 ½ years since landing a Compiegne handicap hurdle and that really does ring alarm bells when it comes to win purposes.

A safer bet may be Rebecca Curtis’ unexposed chaser RELENTLESS DREAMER who finished a respectable second in a similar contest at Worcester last month. It was a decent run on chase debut and the form of it has since been franked with Doctor Phoenix, who finished last of the seven runners, landing a handicap chase off a mark of 132 and the winner Upswing finishing a close second in the valuable Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase at the Paddy Power meeting last weekend. Despite a 2lb rise for his last run, a mark of 123 looks very favourable on paper. He remains lightly-raced and another plus is the fact that he showed his best form last season at this very time of year. Couple that with Champion Jockey elect Richard Johnson in the plate and he must have a leading chance.

Baku Bay is well worth a mention on his chasing debut. He is a former Irish pointer with two wins to his name in that discipline and looks like he will stay all day which could come into play here. He didn’t quite progress as expected as a hurdler but chasing was always going to be his game. The only downside is that he slipped up early on at Cheltenham last month so may strip fitter for this in time.

Advice

RELENTLESS DREAMER – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)


1.15 Haydock Park – The Better Odds With Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle.


Despite only the ten runners, this could be a fascinating affair with a number of unexposed types in the field with a realistic chance. Stilletto was pitched into pattern company on his last start for Philip Hobbs and starts here for Paul Nicholls off a fair mark. His fitness needs to be taken on trust though and the former Irish point winner will undoubtedly be a chaser in the making. The same can be said of Rock The Kasbah who was a good second in the Grade 3 Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow in early October but had been set for a season novice chasing prior to that. Vendor is on his last winning mark and is more than capable of snagging the win if on a going day.

Nevertheless, the eyes are drawn to the top and tail of the field. GUNNER FIFTEEN is an unknown quantity having not been seen for a year since coasting home in a Uttoxeter novice hurdle for Fergal O’Brien. Now with Harry Fry, the bottom weight could well be on a lenient mark and has acted on testing conditions in the past so does have a lot going for him and the slight step up in trip should only be to his benefit giving his Irish point win. His long absence is a concern giving he has had his problems at home in the past but he is a leading contender if ready to fire at the first time of asking.

Top weight Hunters Hoof goes in search of a four-timer but seems to act best on a sounder surface than he is likely to encounter at Haydock. He has always been highly thought of by connections and is currently unbeaten over hurdles. His latest win at Aintree was eye-catching as he disposed of a potentially well-in rival of Dan Skelton’s with a solid staying performance. He will stay further than the extended 2 ¼ miles in front of him here but Nicky Henderson may have dropped him in trip to counter the testing conditions. With 11st 12lb a hefty burden to carry, especially if it turns out to be very soft on the day, he may be set for only a supporting role.

Advice

GUNNER FIFTEEN – 1pt win @ 5/2 (General)


1.50 Haydock Park – The Betfair Price Rush Hurdle.


Won by The New One last year, it usually needs a smart hurdler to take this race and we could be looking at two pretty useful ones in this year’s renewal.

IRVING, who has already been in the money for the service this season after, despite giving weight to all of his rivals, an impressive win in the Elite hurdle two weeks ago. He looked a much improved performer on his seasonal reappearance, especially in the hurdling department – the seven-year-old showed no signs of the jumping frailties that have affected him in the past. It may also be the case that soft ground is now essential to seeing the best of him (form of 11121) and you can be sure it’ll be testing at Haydock on Saturday. A wind operation in the summer seems to have worked wonders and Irving looks to be better than ever, a big run seems nailed-on.

Nicky Henderson saddles what should be his main rival, the talented four-year-old Top Notch, who also appreciates a softer surface and has been mooted as a Champion Hurdle contender this year. The form of his neck (and only career) defeat by Peace & Co, arguably the Henderson stable’s best hurdler, in the Triumph Hurdle seems strong enough with horses like Hargam, Devilment, Petite Parisienne and subsequent Greatwood winner Old Guard in behind, but it is difficult for four-year-olds to take on their elders at this stage in their career, and in this ground, the extra experience of Irving could tell. Top Notch could be one that may just need the run en-route to better things later on in the season.

Melodic Rendezvous looks the other one that could come into contention, but while he will love the deep ground, he has a lot to find with Irving, both on form and with the swing in the weights.

Advice

IRVING – 2pts win @ 5/4 (General)


2.05 Ascot – The Stella Artois 1965 Chase (Grade 2)


This is a race that undoubtedly revolves around the majestic winner of the JLT Novices’ Chase at last year’s Cheltenham festival, VAUTOUR. The six-year-old has got everyone at the Mullins stable very excited and is being spoken of as a genuine contender for the Gold Cup in March, so you would hope that if he was fit and anywhere near his best form, he would win this and win it well.

However, it won’t be a walk in the park for Vautour, with Paul Nicholls’ smart second-season chaser Ptit Zig in attendance. His reappearance defeat of Clarcam in the Grade 2 Powers Irish Whiskey Chase at Down Royal was impressive and he looks primed to put up a good showing. The worries I have with Ptit Zig are a tendency to jump a little left-handed at times, something that doesn’t help at Ascot, the 5lb he has to give to Vautour and the memory of how far the same horse beat him off level weights in the JLT is still fresh in the memory.

The returning O’Faolains Boy adds some more interest to proceedings, but despite his good level of form for Rebecca Curtis, including his Reynoldstown Chase and brave RSA Chase wins in 2014, it would be a big shock if he was in tip-top form at this level after a massive 596-day lay-off.

So in conclusion, this race is at Vautour’s mercy and even though he won’t be much of a price, he should win on the way to much bigger things.

Advice

VAUTOUR – 3pts win @ 2/5 (Paddy Power)


2.25 Haydock Park – The Betfair ‘Tap Tap Boom’ “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

As always, a fiendishly difficult puzzle to solve in the ‘Fixed Brush’ Hurdle, so we’ll start with the performers towards the head of the weights – Shantou Bob looks to hold strong claims in the race, the form of his second to Vyta Du Roc and sixth in the Albert Bartlett at last season’s Cheltenham festival is fairly solid and it’s reasonable to expect more to come from Warren Greatrex’s seven-year-old, he should go well.

Nick Williams has won the race twice in the last six years, including with Aubusson last year, and Tea For Two, once again benefitting from Lizzie Kelly’s 5lb claim, is his latest assault on the pot. A most impressive winner of the Lanzarote Hurdle in January, the six-year-old had an encouraging prep run, finishing sixth in Chepstow’s Silver Trophy and as the market confirms, holds a definite chance. The worry is the ground, the trainer has been on-record saying the horse would prefer a sounder surface than they’re likely to get at Haydock.
Charlie Longsdon will saddle in-form and progressive contender Our Kaempfer, who has plenty of ability, and whose hold-up style could well pay off in races like this. However, like a couple here, I’m not sure he wants soft ground and can be saved in the notebook for another day.

There are a couple lurking towards the bottom of the weights here that look unexposed and could hold big claims. Yala Enki is the horse that punters have latched onto as the ‘plot’ of the race, Venetia Williams bringing him over from France and putting up a very useful performance at Exeter defeating Philip Hobbs’ Duke Des Champs, whom he rates highly. A mark of 130 could be letting the five-year-old in very lightly, considering the step up to almost three miles will suit and the ground should hold no fears.

However, BATAVIR is another unexposed contender with French form and with David Pipe’s superb recent record in this race, it would be mad not to consider a potentially well-handicapped contender from his yard. Defeats of useful types like Bear’s Affair and Spartan Angel in soft ground handicaps last year look good form and despite a mid-field finish, weakening from a prominent position two out, in a listed handicap at Cheltenham on his reappearance last week, it could well have put him spot on for this race. Pipe’s form hasn’t been great recently, but Katkeau’s chasing debut victory at Fakenham midweek could indicate a turning of the tide. 20/1 far underestimates Batavir’s chance and he fits the profile of the embryonic three mile chasing type that often does well in this, so with four places on offer, I’ll roll the dice in a tricky race.

Advice

BATAVIR – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (General)


2.40 Ascot – The Coral Hurdle (Grade 2)

This looks to be a slightly sub-standard renewal given the like if Annie Power and Faugheen have won this in the last two years. With no Irish challenge to worry about, ROCK ON RUBY can regain the winning the thread despite conceding weight all round. He wasn’t seen to best effect over three miles in stamina-sapping conditions at Wetherby last time but will find the drop in trip more favourable here. Despite fading away at the finish in the West Yorkshire Hurdle, he had travelled into the race strongly, a trait that sets him in god stead for what could well turn out to be a steadily run affair. There was a slight concern that the Wetherby run may have taken a lot out of him but Harry Fry believes he is ready to go and that is good enough for me. The only nagging doubt will be the ground as rain (and possibly snow) is expected.

If the going does deteriorate then he likely won’t run and Brother Tedd can pick up the pieces. He progressed nicely as a novice last season and rounded off the campaign with a convincing win in a Sandown handicap hurdle on the last day of the season. He carried that form through to this season and he landed a Pertemps Qualifier at Kempton earlier this month in fine style, accounting for Silviniaco Conti in the process. Connections have mooted that the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival would be his long term aim, which raises question marks as taking a Grade 2 on the way wouldn’t be the usual route. He has got form in the book on soft going but may well be a better operator on the top of the ground, which is another variable to consider.

Advice

ROCK ON RUBY – 1pt win @ 13/8 (Betfred & Totesport)



3.00 Haydock Park – The Betfair Chase (Grade 1)


Paul Nicholls has dominated the Betfair Chase in recent years courtesy of Kauto Star and the hat-trick seeking SILVINIACO CONTI. The superstar chaser once again failed to fire in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but races such as this, the King George and the Aintree Bowl are his bread and butter and see him run to best effect. Conditions are likely to suit the nine-year-old as forecast rain will promise to make the three miles around Haydock a thorough stamina test. Somewhat surprisingly, the favourites have been out of luck in this race over the last four years but we can rely on the 2012 & 2014 winner to buck that trend this time round.

He was beaten by Cue Card in the 2013 renewal but that was on his seasonal debut and he has perennially stripped fitter for the run, with a nice spin over hurdles under his belt this campaign. Colin Tizzard’s flagship chaser warrants a great deal of respect and his front-running style could be conducive to him nicking it from the front. However, as we have seen many times over the years, he doesn’t quite stay the three miles in truly testing conditions and may well be a sitting duck for the proven stayers as they enter the home straight. That being said, his performance in the Charlie Hall Chase was full of grit and determination and he was capably holding off the Pipe pair in the closing stages.

Both Ballynagour and Dynaste are very well matched on that run at Wetherby at the end of October and will undoubtedly run their race once more. The latter just pipped his stablemate for the runners-up spot and looks the first string on jockey bookings but he has flattered to deceive in this the last couple of years. The former progressed into a top-class performer last campaign and was only narrowly held by Silviniaco Conti in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree as he finished well on the run-in. Similar tactics could be employed and he could be one to keep an eye on staying on late.

Holywell is a Grade 1 winner in his own right but was well behind some of these in the Charlie Hall and only tends to show his best form in the spring. Nevertheless, he deserves his place in the field given his fourth-place finish in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Advice

SILVINIACO CONTI – 2pts win @ 5/6 (Coral)



3.15 Ascot – The Shawbrook Handicap Chase.

Looking at this race, I can’t help but think the winner will come from the top-rated half of the field as there is a lack of progressive contenders lower down the weights. Henry De Bromhead’s Crown Theatre may prove the only one capable of improving significantly on what he’s shown before, but I have doubts whether he can bridge the gap to some useful performers.
Cold March and Dresden seem to fall into the same boat here, both winning very nicely last time out, especially Venetia Williams’ charge in a decent race, but having been hit by the handicapper (10lb and 9lb hikes respectively), it may be best to look elsewhere for this, despite them being in-form contenders.

Dunraven Storm has plied his trade in company a little better than this recently and if he appreciates the drop back in grade, could go well at a decent price with Richard Johnson on board, but the handicapper is proving slow to relent on his mark and he could be a few pounds too high still.

After going up only 4lb for an encouraging three length Cheltenham second to Boondooma, Workbench looks an intriguing contender for Dan and Harry Skelton. The bare form of that run would give him a very decent chance here and he’s clearly an improver to keep on the right side of, but I worry about the underfoot conditions as he’s shown very little on soft ground before.
But the one I want to be on here is FAGO for the Nicholls yard, who will relish any testing conditions and cruised through most of his reappearance race at Wetherby before running out of petrol in the closing stages. He is entitled to come on a lot for that run and looked as if he would appreciate the drop back to two miles as he travelled so well. The seven-year-old was raised just 3lb for that run, and is still on a winning mark compared to this time two years ago, so if Nicholls has managed to get him back to anything like that form, he could be a strong bet this weekend.


Advice

FAGO – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Ladbrokes & BetVictor)

[mayo]

Bitchy

Having backed gunner15 for the fixed brush earlier in the week will be trying to recover my losses at Ascot.

I'll watch rather than back Vautour.

Will have a good look at Venetia horses in morning. Gl all.

[mayo]

I think I'll take you on ....


Did Irving have a wind op ?

Also dickie says brother tedd his best chance of winner.

Sue Smiths hoss gets whatever that is worth

[Istabraq]

Will have a good look at Venetia horses in morning. Gl all.

Trend experts will confirm that Venetia horses should be backed in chases but only with Coleman/Treadwell on board, her record with claimers up top is poor....

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think I'll take you on ....


Did Irving have a wind op ?

Also dickie says brother tedd his best chance of winner.

Sue Smiths hoss gets whatever that is worth

I get tips through from time to time and he's taking me on too, he's picking Irving, Silvi, Vautour and, dadada daa, Brother Ted

[Old Vic]

Merged the threads ...

I'm on ROR and SC - Holywell is overpriced and will cover.

[Old Vic]

Added hendersons bumper horse at Ascot - price seems big but really backing his track record

[Istabraq]

Added hendersons bumper horse at Ascot - price seems big but really backing his track record

What stands out for there is the BG booking on Harry Fry's unraced Bags Groove, both have cracking strike rates at the track but I don't remember them pairing up before too often.....

[dazzler]

I like the look of bags groove as well isti looks one to follow for the season,
I've put all Harry fry runners today in lucky 15. Good luck every1


Bags Groove – Unraced 4yo dark horse for trainer Harry Fry. Nicely bred for the National Hunt game being a son of Oscar out of Roselier mare and it’s interesting to see Michael Pescod - flat owner with Roger Charlton and Richard Hannon (Rex Imperator colours) - dip his toe into the jumps waters.

[Istabraq]

Yep, given another year or two Harry fry could have copped a few serious races, will be a top table trainer if not already.

Todays darts:

Ptig Zig e/w - chance the fav underperforms and can't see him finihsing behind the rest
Cold March - Venetia's chasers with Coleman/Treadwell on fire
Irving - odds against is a cracking price, plunge !!!
Baradari e/w - open to improvement but tough race
Royal Paladium - see Cold March
Cue card e/w - think he wins but security of Silvi going past him

Good luck all

[mayo]

I like the look of bags groove as well isti looks one to follow for the season,
I've put all Harry fry runners today in lucky 15. Good luck every1


Bags Groove – Unraced 4yo dark horse for trainer Harry Fry. Nicely bred for the National Hunt game being a son of Oscar out of Roselier mare and it’s interesting to see Michael Pescod - flat owner with Roger Charlton and Richard Hannon (Rex Imperator colours) - dip his toe into the jumps waters.

a good start dazzler

[Old Vic]

some serious tipping on this thread.

Well done winners

[mayo]

Yep, given another year or two Harry fry could have copped a few serious races, will be a top table trainer if not already.

Todays darts:

Ptig Zig e/w - chance the fav underperforms and can't see him finihsing behind the rest
Cold March - Venetia's chasers with Coleman/Treadwell on fire
Irving - odds against is a cracking price, plunge !!!
Baradari e/w - open to improvement but tough race
Royal Paladium - see Cold March
Cue card e/w - think he wins but security of Silvi going past him

Good luck all

Ista superb