2015 Hennessy

[mayo]

A different race without Coneygree ? If he misses it cant see any of those immediately below running so Saphir De Rheu could easily be top weight ? Methinks I need to find something lurking outside of current handicap.

Sausalito Sunrise (IRE) and Pendra might be likely types ?



Sara Bradstock, wife and assistant to the Oxfordshire handler, said: "A nail slightly pricked his foot and he has spread a plate.

"These things can resolve themselves, though, and it might be that by Wednesday he is back all signing, all dancing.

"If it doesn't resolve itself he will get an abscess and it will take longer to heal.

"We need to warn people about the Hennessy as he needs to be doing a proper gallop on Saturday.

"It's only something very small, but you cannot take any risks with a horse of his magnitude."

[mayo]

Sara Bradstock, assistant trainer to husband Mark, said: "We've got the shoe on and things are looking a lot rosier.

"I'm not promising anything, but it (Hennessy) is now a live possibility.

"The bruise has gone, but there is still a chance some pus could come out of the foot.

"There is also a chance the bruise could come back after we gallop him.

"He'll gallop on Sunday and we'll see how he is after that.

"We're not out of the woods yet, but we've made a step in the right direction and if things keep going as they are then hopefully we'll get there."

[MrMcGoldrick]

Bobsworth must come into the reckoning if his form holds up

[Old Vic]

Bobsworth must come into the reckoning if his form holds up

If Coneygree runs he would be may fancy ..less confident if weights go up. Will Geraghty be free to ride ? It sounds if MTOY might not be ready for fighting fifth.

[mayo]

Do you fancy bobs or Coneygree OV ?

[Old Vic]

Do you fancy bobs or Coneygree OV ?

Bobs Worth but only with nico or baz.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've backed If In Doubt and Sausalito Sunrise. However I'm worried that the jumping of both horses will fall to pieces if Coneygree runs and he turns the screw early in the race.

[Old Vic]

Had a good look at SS but think Hobbs said something about it coming too soon. One to follow for sure.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agreed OV. Backed SS before Chepstow for this but he had a hard race on Saturday. I'd be surprised if he turns up too.

[dazzler]

Richard jhonson- fignal bay 25-1 ?

All eyes are on Newbury at the end of the week for the Hennessy meeting and I look set to ride Fingal Bay for Philip Hobbs in the big one.

I sat on him on Monday morning and he felt in great nick - I’m sure he’s ready to put up a bold show.

He’ll come on for his reappearance blow out at Kempton and meets Smad Place on much healthier terms come Saturday.

Yes, we were beaten eight lengths at Kempton, but we were upsides two out and I don’t think there will be too much between the pair come Saturday.

I’ve got the rest of the week to get myself down to 10 stone and you can mark my words that I only do that for the good ones!

I’ve got 6lbs to lose between now and then, so at least I can do it gradually over the week - no seconds for me!

[Istabraq]

Interesting, I've been keen on Smad Place for a while but DJ is always a jockey I listen to (he sits in the preview evening panel Monday of Chelt week and given some great info over the years.
The idea of an extremely fit man with very little body fat losing 6lb in 5 days defies belief and what does that take out of him ?

Another I'm keen on is The Druids Nephew, if that run over hurdles the other week has blown away enough cobwebs I think he could run a big race....

[Morning Glory]

25s on Fingal Bay seems fair and is my first bet in it. Dickies betway column is a good read.

[Yeehaa]

Dickie can tuck in Coneygree out

"I'm afraid we're not running. He just didn't school well enough. He overreached which he's never done before which suggests he's not comfortable," said Sara Bradstock.

"He didn't jump badly but for him, it wasn't him. We've always said if there was any residual pain left we weren't going to take a risk.

"He definitely wasn't himself.

"Obviously the prime thing is to get him feeling absolutely on top of the world and not worrying about his foot.

"We've got a month to either the King George or the Lexus.

"I think all will be well. It's a timing thing. We're just worried about it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we haven't flared it and he wasn't lame on it again tonight.

"It's just his foot, it's not structural damage."

[Super Bobs]

That will be Nico on Bobs now.

[Old Vic]

Key trend - focus on the 6 & 7yos

with seven of the last ten winners of the hennessy taking part in their second season over fences, it is advisable to follow this group of horses.

These horses tend to improve between their first and second season chasing and are often able to exploit their handicap mark at this time of year. This applies to many of those towards the head of the market with the likes of saphir du rheu, the young master and if in doubt all embarking on their second season over the bigger obstacles.

This also means that younger horses have tended to do well here over the years. To narrow it down, six and seven-year-olds have been the group to follow having been successful in eight of the last ten renewals, with the seven-year-olds accounting for six of those victories.

Only six of this year's field fall into the desired bracket, the quartet of seven year-olds (splash of ginge, if in doubt, urano and ned stark) and the two six-year-olds in the field, saphir du rheu and the young master.

Highest placed RSA finisher to run in this: 161P22P185 (3-2-10) 6 and 7 year olds have the best record (combined 8-17-92) which compares well to all others ages (combined 2-12-90).

Diamond Edge in 1981 is only horse aged over 9 to have won this in the last 40 years while Denman (in 2009) is the only horse aged older than 8 to have won this in past 10 years, when winning it for second time.