Open Meeting Friday Thread

[mayo]

Hopefully bitchy will do something better but in meantime

1305 2m Handicap Chase

The Pipe hotpot could be anything. Henderson trained 3 in a row between 2009-11 but still hard to back his chasers. If I play might try Astracad at 14s.

1340 2,4f Novice Chase

More of that is plenty short for a horse that has been off the course for as long as he has. Money for might bite and a few twitter shrewdies have tipped him. The Henderson chase thing still puts me of. As De Mee is my pick.

1415 Neptune Trial

PP has plenty of admirers and agree that he looks the real deal. Tom Scudamore raved about Champer on Ice on C4 last week and Shantou Flyer has a lofty reputation too. Fascinating race.

1450 Cross Country

Uncle Junior ew

1525 2m handicap hurdle

Ruby and Tony Martin will be backed but Eco Warrior might offer a bit of value of bottom weight from an in form yard.

16:00 Amateur Chase

Definite Ruby went close at the Showcase but Our Sox gets weight all around and will do me.

GL all.

[bitchy]

1.05 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Handicap Chase


The Open meeting gets underway with a competitive two miles handicap chase and having finished third in this race with Monetaire twelve months ago, the Pond House team look likely to saddle the market leader this time around in the shape of La Vaticane. A dual winner over fences in her native France, she lost nothing in defeat on her British bow when chasing home Theinval at Kempton in March, with the winner going on to land a Grade 3 at Aintree before the end of the season. Clearly having had only one run in Britain and having been off the track for 244 days, there is plenty to be taken on trust alone but the yard have forged a reputation for such coups in the past and she is respected on her British chasing debut. Having said that, she is currently the 7/2 market leader and I think that is short enough given the nagging concerns that I have mentioned.

In terms of early season form, the run of Pearls Legend behind Cold March a couple of weeks ago looks pretty strong, having led for much of the way before being collared on the run to the final fence. The switch to a left-handed track should suit John Spearing’s eight-year-old as he had a slight tendency to edge to his left at Ascot last time. The fact that he has won twice at Sandown suggests that the undulations and stiff finish shouldn’t hold any fears for him and a reproduction of his reappearance run would see him right in the shake-up once again tomorrow.

Of the less-exposed members of the field, cases can be made for the likes of The Clock Leary and Minella Present who both have pieces of form which suggest that they can go well here. Both also represent yards in form which can be a significant factor especially at this time of year when some of the big yards are yet to get their horses into top gear.

However, it is Nicky Henderson’s LOUGH KENT who gets my vote having won so impressively on his chasing debut at Warwick in May. That was the first time he had got his head in front since moving from France although he had solid pieces of hurdling form behind the likes of Theinval and Gassin Golf. He was turned out two days later under a penalty but the combination of a recent run and the step up to 2m4f didn’t see him to best effect and he has been off the track since then. He wasn’t beaten that far and the return to two miles should be right up his street. The Seven Barrows stable is starting to fire the winners in with four in the last week and in a competitive heat, I think he is worth an each-way bet at around the 7/1 mark.


Advice

LOUGH KENT – 0.5pt e/w @ 7/1 (General)




1.40 Cheltenham – Steel Plate And Sections Novices“ Chase


In recent years this race has thrown up more than a few smart performers including the likes of Imperial Commander, Denman and Grands Crus and given the quality of the line-up for this year’s renewal, we might yet see another smart winner of the race.

If we consider the betting market, then it all seems to centre around the chasing debutant More Of That who won the World Hurdle here in 2014 at the end of a campaign which saw him win five races consecutively. Sadly we only saw him once last season in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury where he was a shadow of his former self and having been niggled for much of the way could finish only third. A breathing problem was subsequently identified and has been operated on and the signs are that he has been pleasing his connections in the lead up to this race. The yard took this race with Taquin Du Seuil two years ago and whilst I expect him to run well, I wouldn’t be too keen on taking 7/4 about him especially given the depth of the opposition he faces.

One such runner is Paul Nicholls As De Mee who made a solid start over the larger obstacles when chasing home second season chaser Cocktails At Dawn at Chepstow in October. He was receiving 8lb from the winner that day but he was in the vanguard for much of the contest and stuck to his task well to hold on for second in the closing stages. He had some excellent form over hurdles last season winning the EBF Final at Sandown and has always been viewed as a chaser in the making.

Ian Williams’ Ballyalton finds himself coming here on something of a retrieval mission having unseated on his return to action at Warwick last week. The eight-year-old chased home Faugheen in the Neptune in 2014 but missed all of last season and until departing at Warwick, looked to be finding the tight two miles a little sharp for him. The step up to 2m4f will definitely suit him and ironically I felt his jumping was getting better as the round went on before getting rid of Will Kennedy at the third last. His trainer has reported him to be none the worse for his tumble and I fancy he will run well here although as I have mentioned the opposition is stiff.

The final one of the main protagonists that I wish to mention is Nicky Henderson’s Might Bite who having been beaten on his sole start in a bumper in January, won both of his first two starts over hurdles. The six-year-old is a close relative of the yard’s Beat That and the expectations are that he will make a fine chaser in time. It may surprise you to learn that Nicky Henderson had just eight novice chase wins to his name last season although he has a much stronger team of novice chasers to go to war with this year.

Overall, I am finding it hard to nail one horse down and in truth I think we will be looking back at this race at the end of the season and highlighting what strong form it produces. If I was pushed, at the prices I would have a small win bet on Ballyalton at 13/2 as I feel he will be better for that initial experience and the step up in trip.


Advice

BALLYALTON – 1pt win @ 13/2 (SkyBet)




2.15 Cheltenham – Neptune Investment Management Novices“ Hurdle (Grade 2)


Onto our third race and having gone the way of John Ferguson’s Parlour Games twelve months ago, the stable have another well-fancied runner in the shape of PENGLAI PAVILION. Like most of the yard’s horses he is a high-class recruit from the flat having finished fifth in the Arc behind Treve in 2013 and he has made an excellent start to his new career this season. A winner of his first two starts at Hexham and Stratford, he put aside any concerns about stepping up in trip when winning over course and distance in October in impressive fashion. He has lots of tactical speed as well as an ability to jump hurdles quickly and accurately and he looks likely to take high rank in the novice hurdling division this term. This looks a potentially tougher test than he has faced so far but despite conceding weight all around, he is still very much the one to beat.

The remaining three contenders come in here on the back of last time out successes and the bottom two Shantou Village and Champers On Ice both come in here with lofty reputations. The former is an Irish point winner who has won his first two starts under rules including a nineteen length demolition of his rivals at Carlisle last time and his shrewd trainer thinks he can develop into a top-class prospect. Similarly, Champers On Ice was an expensive purchase at £205,000 in March on the back of an Irish point win but justified strong market support to land a Punchestown bumper in April. He too could prove a top-class recruit to the novice hurdling division but I think flat speed could prove crucial in this four-runner affair and I therefore find it hard to get away from the favourite.


Advice

PENGLAI PAVILION – 2pts win @ 6/4 (Paddy Power)






2.50 Cheltenham – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase


Depending on your view on these races will largely depend on whether you have a bet on the race or not and whilst I feel that the races are more than a novelty, they are certainly something of a specialist discipline and therefore proven form over the course or in similar conditions is likely to carry a lot of weight in my mind.

Six of the first seven home in the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival are present in today’s line-up and although there is a slight pull in the weights, the winner Rivage D’Or looks worthy of plenty of respect. Some of you might recall the carnage on the final turn at the Festival but there is no doubt that the winner was going well at the time and would have gone close regardless. It is worth noting that he has disappointed in his last two runs in the Irish Grand National and the La Touche Cup but it would be no surprise to see him return to form here.

There also aren’t many race in which you will see fourteen-year-old horses lining up but Uncle Junior is still going strong and was last seen winning the La Touche Cup for a second time at the end of April. He won this race in 2011 and 2012 and whilst he may not be the force of old, he is impossible to rule out given his experience.

Martin Keighley saddles two interesting runners with the first Any Currency a regular face in these sorts of events in the last few years. He was fourth in this race last year when it was a conditions race but now that it is a handicap he concedes weight to all but his stablemate. He has had a spin around Aintree to prep him for this outing and given his consistent record at the venue, he looks likely to run another big race. It will also be interesting to see how his stablemate Champion Court gets on having been rejuvenated over the summer, winning twice over fences and once over hurdles since the beginning of May. He wasn’t beaten that far last time and if he can see out the longer test, he could run better than his odds of 16/1 suggest.

However, there is no man better at training a cross-country horse than Enda Bolger who has farmed these sorts of events in recent times and he sends over JOSIES ORDERS for this assignment. The seven-year-old has a few less miles on the clock than some of his rivals and was running well before being unseated in the La Touche Cup in April. He was turned out a few weeks later at Punchestown in a similar event and made amends winning well in the hands of Nina Carberry. His spin over hurdles a few weeks ago should have put him spot on for this and with his trainer having his own cross-country schooling ground, I wouldn’t have thought he will be short of practice. He has a feather weight of 10st 2lb on his back and although this will be his first experience of the cross country course here, I fancy him to go well.


Advice

JOSIES ORDERS – 1pt win @ 6/1 (William Hill)

[Istabraq]

I'm all over Penglai Pavilion once again, even in a small field he's backable odds against, there was some 6/4 earlier which was clipped into 11/8 but both have now gone and 5/4 is the best price you'll find.

Bitchy and I am probably in a minority as I too love cross country races, form generally holds and the first thing I look for is experience over the banks, I'm therefore against Jossies Orders.
Winner of a weak banks race last season having unseated in the La Touch Cup earlier in the week I'm not sure that any horse who has only seen these obstacles in race conditions twice, and failed to finish in one of those, should be such a short price against seasoned cross country challengers.
Of course there's no better horse'man' than Nina around this course and at 7 there's surely plenty of improvement to come from him, but I'm looking at Any Currency who, despite having to give plenty of weight away, he is old hat in these events and can prevail.

Paul Jones once wrote that weight and age isn't an issue in banks races because the lay out of the course means they don't reach racing speed until they come out onto the course proper with around 3f to run, these are specialist obstacles and the quickest horses don't always respect then and therefore don't always win.
I remember seeing Spothedifference winning the festival cross country race at 12 years of age and the performances of Uncle Junior, Hello Bud, Garde Champetre, A New Story amongst others confirms this is the only festival race that can be won by a horse in double digit years (there are a few rare exceptions I accept) so I'm not put off by the weight or age that Any Currency burdens.

Good luck all

[Yeehaa]

Excellent posts gents.

[Old Vic]

Timefirm meeting magazine

https://en.calameo.com/read/000362465cfaa7ad59758?authid=viPQriEKjjgH

[Old Vic]

Thanks to all posters

decent horses out today and really feels like proper winter racing now

[Morning Glory]

Bitchy was along with something better Mayo

Istabraq - I think you are in the minority but love that defence of the X Country.

Anyway good stuff lads.

Minella Rocco , Eco Warrior and Any Currency for an interest on a tricky day for me.

[Morning Glory]

Havent backed them but have a fuuny feeling Henderson Chasers might turn the corner at the meeting.

[Old Vic]

A hare breath has been smashed up in Handicap Hurdle now into 4s. Missed the price but Pauling has his runners flying.

[Lester]

Penglai P is a 2 miler but thats a good hoss.

[Old Vic]

A hare breath has been smashed up in Handicap Hurdle now into 4s. Missed the price but Pauling has his runners flying.

Gamble landed - 5 wins from 13 runners this month for Pauling.