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1.20 Aintree – Betfred Racing ‘Follow Us On Twitter’ Novices’ Chase (Class 3)
How About It brings winning chase form into this Novices’ Chase and while the gelding is penalised for that win at Exeter four weeks ago, he sets a decent standard to aim at and should go well in a trappy affair.
If Caracci Apache can translate the best of his hurdles form to fences, he could end up being head and shoulders better than most of these, but he can be a difficult ride at times, pulling hard and it seems like the percentage call to oppose him at likely skinny odds on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut.
One horse who should appreciate the switch to fences is Jonjo O’Neill’s SPOOKYDOOKY as an easy winner of a maiden point-to-point race back in March 2013. The fact that he showed good form in staying hurdles will have been a bonus for connections as he’s always been seen as a chaser and I think he’ll put up a bold show here with Barry Geraghty on board.
Another horse who deserves a mention is Rolling Maul for the Bowens, mostly a tough and consistent character who does have the size and scope for chasing but I think there could be classier performers in this even if he does take to the larger obstacles.
Advice
SPOOKYDOOKY – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Boylesports)
1.30 Wincanton – Wincanton Rising Stars Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)
Trainer Paul Nicholls has farmed this race in recent years having been responsible for six of the last ten winners and the roll of honour includes the likes of Silviniaco Conti and Southfield Theatre. This year he saddles ARPEGE D’ALENE who caused something of a stir last season when winning at 12/1 on his British debut at Ascot. He only had another two races last season, finishing fifth in the Challow Hurdle behind Parlour Games before getting the better of the classy Tea For Two in February. I understand that he had no setback but that connections were always mindful that he would be a better chaser so didn’t feel the need to overrace him last term. The fact that he has never jumped a fence in public is something of a concern but his trainer did the same with Ornais in 2007 and he is a half-brother to Hennessy Gold Cup winner Triolo D’Alene so he should be a natural over the bigger obstacles. The Ditcheat team have begun to fire in the winners in the last couple of weeks and despite this being a big ask on his chasing debut, I fancy him to get off the mark here.
Dan Skelton’s Long House Hall could prove the biggest danger having been well-backed at Cheltenham last time, only for the seven-year-old to fall at the fourth fence before falling again when running loose. Presumably he is none the worse for that run and he certainly looked a smart novice chaser when winning at Bangor in May, although that performance also saw him make a couple of jumping errors. I believe the Skelton team think quite highly of this horse and if he can sharpen up his jumping then he could give the selection most to think about.
I should also mention Warren Greatrex’s Warrantor who has long been touted as a hurdler who would be better over fences. He was first past the post in an Irish point and won twice last season over hurdles before stepping up in class on his final two starts. This test might be too much for him on his chasing debut but I could see him running well and being one to follow in the coming months.
Advice
ARPEGE D’ALENE – 2pts win @ 15/8 (Bet365)
1.55 Aintree – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)
Only eight runners for this Pertemps Qualifier but it certainly isn’t short on quality with last season’s Grand National favourite Shutthefrontdoor making his return to action. He had a light campaign last season winning a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on this weekend last year before heading straight to the Grand National where he could finish only fifth behind Many Clouds. He is reported to be in good form at home but I would be surprised if he was 100% on his reappearance with the eight-year-old likely to have bigger targets as the season goes on. He is rated 6lb lower over hurdles than over fences so he could be well in over the smaller obstacles and it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Another making their return to action is Nicky Henderson’s mare Broxbourne who was last seen finishing sixth in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Last season was her first over hurdles and she did well winning twice as well as being placed at Listed level on another two occasions. Having stayed two miles on the flat I wondered how long it would be before she tried three miles over hurdles and I think she will be well suited to a race with more emphasis on stamina. She will probably have to improve on her hurdles form to date to win here but she had plenty of flat ability and I think the extra half mile can eke out further improvement from her.
However, I fancy race fitness may play a big part in the outcome of this race and with that in mind I am going to go with OUR KAEMPFER who was third over course and distance in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in April. He has to be ridden patiently and in big fields he can often get too far behind so this small field should suit his running style well. His trainer admitted that he would come on for the run before his engagement at Chepstow in October but he still ran well to finish fourth behind Court Minstrel. He was staying on in the closing stages which suggested that the return to three miles should be right up his street. His trainer believes that his current mark of 140 is workable for the six-year-old and with race fitness on his side, he gets the nod.
Advice
OUR KAEMPFER – 2pts win @ 3/1 (Bet365)
2.05 Wincanton – Badger Ales Trophy (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race)
The Badger Ales Trophy is perennially one of the most competitive staying handicap chases on the calendar and this year is no different. Paul Nicholls may hold all the aces though as he saddles a pair that hold leading claims. Last year’s fourth, Benvolio, returns here on a 6lb higher mark but he improved throughout last season and the eight-year-old will benefit from another season chasing under his belt. Following his run at Wincanton, he headed to Chepstow for the Welsh National and was only narrowly beaten in a ding-dong battle up the run-in. He can be forgiven his next start given he made a mistake early on and was never going a yard thereafter. Any rain will be a massive plus as he seems to relish ploughing through the mud.
His stablemate, THE OULD LAD, however, looks the one to beat on his debut for Nicholls having left Tom George over the summer. The winning Irish pointer came into his own over fences last campaign, finishing second in a valuable Grade 3 handicap chase as a novice at Cheltenham last December. The unexposed seven-year-old disappointed a couple of times after that over inadequate trips and found the Kim Muir at the Festival a step too far at that stage of his career. His move to a new yard promises to freshen him up this campaign and he is of great interest carrying a featherweight (10st 2lb) now 2lb lower than his Cheltenham second.
In contrast, Carole’s Destrier has the burden of top weight but he does boast the best form in the book and cannot be ruled out. The seven-year-old easily landed a similar contest to this at Ascot in February and is now inly 7lb higher than when coasting home that day by eight lengths. He hails from the in-form Neil Mulholland yard, who have proven themselves most adept at winning these sort of races over the years with the likes of The Druids Nephew and last year’s disqualified winner of this The Young Master. He was sent off as a 4/1 shot in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at the Aintree Festival which tells you everything you need to know about his potential.
Advice
THE OULD LAD – 1pt win @ 7/2 (General)
2.30 Aintree – Betfred Hurdle
A number catch the eye in this select field and it looks to be a tricky race to master. 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth makes his first start over hurdles since landing the Albert Bartlett at the 2011 Festival in what looks sure to be a prep-run for either the Betfair Chase or Hennessy Gold Cup at the end of the month. He undoubtedly has ability but question marks surround him after last season’s disappointments and he doesn’t look as though he has the toe for two and a half miles these days.
This race also looks to be a stepping stone for his stablemate SIMONSIG, who arrives at Aintree having not been seen on a race track for the past two seasons since his victory in the 2013 Arkle. Undoubtedly, this spin over hurdles will just be used to blow away the cobwebs but this has been the plan with him and it would be no surprise to see him in the thick of it at the finish. Few can forget his imperious display in the 2012 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and, if the vibes emanating from Seven Barrows are true, he could well be up to taking this.
Royal Boy is another that has had a long lay-off having not appeared since landing the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle in January 2014. He looked an exciting prospect but his long absence and the fact he was sold out of the Henderson stable for only £8,000 in May, supports the belief that he is nowhere near the force of old.
A pair of John Ferguson inmates complete the field and while Commissioned will be race-fit, Purple Bay looks to hold the strongest credentials of the two. The well-bred six-year-old flourished last season, landing the Listed Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen and taking the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton before finishing runner-up to Champion Hurdler Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at Kemton on Boxing Day. He had a niggling injury after that and hasn’t been seen since but rates an interesting contender in the top-level hurdles this year. The Fighting Fifth at Newcastle had been mooted as an early season target for him and he may strip fitter for his run here but even with giving 5lb to the rest of the field, he must be considered as a leading contender.
Advice
FORECAST – SIMONSIG TO BEAT PURPLE BAY – 1pt
2.40 Wincanton – Bruton Mares´ Handicap Hurdle
Harry Fry took this race two years ago with Highland Retreat and hit the post twelve months ago with Blue Buttons and this time around he saddles Desert Queen. The seven-year-old won her first two starts over hurdles last March and she was pulled up when stepped into Grade 1 company on her last run of the season. The point winner is lightly-raced and her trainer believes that she can improve on what she did last year with that experience under her belt. This race is obviously one her trainer targets and given his fine recent record in the race, she looks worth a place on the shortlist.
Towards the foot of the weights, Philip Hobbs has an interesting representative in the shape of Kayf Willow who made a winning return to action at Newton Abbot in October. She ran on strongly to get the better of Lady Of Longstone and despite a 5lb rise in the weights, there could be more to come from here. That was only her fourth start over hurdles and having seemingly improved for the step up to 2m4f last time, she could run a big race in receipt of weight from most of her main rivals.
However, there could be a potentially top-class mare in the field in the shape of KALANE who won two of her four starts last term including a valuable Listed handicap at Newbury in March. She was far from disgraced when no match for Annie Power at Punchestown in May and with another summer under her belt, I expect she has improved physically. Her trainer has reported her to be in good form ahead of her return to action and he expects her to be contesting Graded races for much of the rest of the campaign. She does have to concede weight to all of her rivals here but she is entitled to do so and I fancy her to make a winning return to action.
Advice
KALANE – 1pt win @ 3/1 (Bet365)
3.05 Aintree – Betfred ‘Scoop6Soccer’ Handicap Chase
A race where it’s difficult to discount too many, but a few stand out for me, starting with Dan Skelton’s Upepito, who ran well on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, just being edged out by Village Vic in the closing stages. The seven-year-old can be expected to have come on for that and should go well off just 2lb higher.
Ballygarvey was highly tried by Philip Hobbs last season, but despite some average-looking form, could still have more to come in handicaps. He goes well in testing ground and will strip fitter after his run at Chepstow three weeks ago.
Hobbs’ other runner, Bincombe will be able to run effectively with 10st after 7lb claimer Conor Smith was booked, and could be a threat. The last time Smith rode the horse, he won a handicap chase at Chepstow, so expect a prominent showing from this improver.
Pepite Rose has to carry top weight but she is definitely the classiest performer in the field and should run well enough, but the ground could go against her.
But it is MINELLA FORFITNESS who takes my eye most, after a good seasonal debut at Fakenham, chasing home the potentially smart novice Katgary, the eight-year-old should be spot on for this and if reaching something like his useful hurdles form, may be on a lenient chasing mark. The ex-Nicky Henderson inmate now resides at Charles Pogson’s yard and although he has taken a while to hit the right notes there, it looks as if he is ready to resume his earlier progress and could well be worth taking a chance on.
Advice
MINELLA FORFITNESS – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
3.15 Wincanton – StanJames.com Elite Hurdle (Grade 2)
A decent-looking renewal of the Elite Hurdle and as John Ferguson won this race last year with Purple Bay, his first string runner, Francis Of Assisi, looks a good place to start. The Danehill Dancer gelding is unbeaten over hurdles in three starts and the form of his latest win over Ch’Tibello was boosted last weekend when the Skelton inmate pushed the well-regarded Altior all the way at Ascot. The worry for me is his lack of experience in what looks a fairly hot race. He’s clearly talented but this might be too much to ask.
One whose experience is not in question is IRVING, who, despite giving weight to all rivals here, has to go into the race with a big chance. Conditions should suit – his record over two miles in soft ground is 1112 – and it wasn’t long ago that this horse was considered a genuine Champion Hurdle contender. Last season didn’t go to plan for the Paul Nicholls horse, but he’s always been good on seasonal reappearances (was running well when falling at the last in this last year) and I think there could well be more to come if he has brushed up his jumping.
Nicholls’ other runner in the race is the promising All Yours, whose fifth in the Fred Winter and win in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree read as good juvenile form, especially in the latter when defeating smart types such as Devilment, Bristol De Mai and Hargam. With 7lb less to carry than his stablemate, he could be well-handicapped but I have a feeling he may just need the run.
Another horse who will enjoy the likely testing conditions is Melodic Rendezvous, who returns to hurdles after four spins over fences. On his best form, he would hold real claims and he has won this race before (in 2013) carrying 3lb more than he has to today. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he outran his current 10/1 odds under Richard Johnson and ran into a place.
Current favourite Zarib sneaks into the race under a featherweight, but despite the market vibes being very positive and a pull in the weights with All Yours on Fred Winter form, I’d be surprised if he could turn the tables on that rival, let alone the two more experienced runners
Advice
IRVING – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
How About It brings winning chase form into this Novices’ Chase and while the gelding is penalised for that win at Exeter four weeks ago, he sets a decent standard to aim at and should go well in a trappy affair.
If Caracci Apache can translate the best of his hurdles form to fences, he could end up being head and shoulders better than most of these, but he can be a difficult ride at times, pulling hard and it seems like the percentage call to oppose him at likely skinny odds on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut.
One horse who should appreciate the switch to fences is Jonjo O’Neill’s SPOOKYDOOKY as an easy winner of a maiden point-to-point race back in March 2013. The fact that he showed good form in staying hurdles will have been a bonus for connections as he’s always been seen as a chaser and I think he’ll put up a bold show here with Barry Geraghty on board.
Another horse who deserves a mention is Rolling Maul for the Bowens, mostly a tough and consistent character who does have the size and scope for chasing but I think there could be classier performers in this even if he does take to the larger obstacles.
Advice
SPOOKYDOOKY – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Boylesports)
1.30 Wincanton – Wincanton Rising Stars Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)
Trainer Paul Nicholls has farmed this race in recent years having been responsible for six of the last ten winners and the roll of honour includes the likes of Silviniaco Conti and Southfield Theatre. This year he saddles ARPEGE D’ALENE who caused something of a stir last season when winning at 12/1 on his British debut at Ascot. He only had another two races last season, finishing fifth in the Challow Hurdle behind Parlour Games before getting the better of the classy Tea For Two in February. I understand that he had no setback but that connections were always mindful that he would be a better chaser so didn’t feel the need to overrace him last term. The fact that he has never jumped a fence in public is something of a concern but his trainer did the same with Ornais in 2007 and he is a half-brother to Hennessy Gold Cup winner Triolo D’Alene so he should be a natural over the bigger obstacles. The Ditcheat team have begun to fire in the winners in the last couple of weeks and despite this being a big ask on his chasing debut, I fancy him to get off the mark here.
Dan Skelton’s Long House Hall could prove the biggest danger having been well-backed at Cheltenham last time, only for the seven-year-old to fall at the fourth fence before falling again when running loose. Presumably he is none the worse for that run and he certainly looked a smart novice chaser when winning at Bangor in May, although that performance also saw him make a couple of jumping errors. I believe the Skelton team think quite highly of this horse and if he can sharpen up his jumping then he could give the selection most to think about.
I should also mention Warren Greatrex’s Warrantor who has long been touted as a hurdler who would be better over fences. He was first past the post in an Irish point and won twice last season over hurdles before stepping up in class on his final two starts. This test might be too much for him on his chasing debut but I could see him running well and being one to follow in the coming months.
Advice
ARPEGE D’ALENE – 2pts win @ 15/8 (Bet365)
1.55 Aintree – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)
Only eight runners for this Pertemps Qualifier but it certainly isn’t short on quality with last season’s Grand National favourite Shutthefrontdoor making his return to action. He had a light campaign last season winning a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on this weekend last year before heading straight to the Grand National where he could finish only fifth behind Many Clouds. He is reported to be in good form at home but I would be surprised if he was 100% on his reappearance with the eight-year-old likely to have bigger targets as the season goes on. He is rated 6lb lower over hurdles than over fences so he could be well in over the smaller obstacles and it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Another making their return to action is Nicky Henderson’s mare Broxbourne who was last seen finishing sixth in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Last season was her first over hurdles and she did well winning twice as well as being placed at Listed level on another two occasions. Having stayed two miles on the flat I wondered how long it would be before she tried three miles over hurdles and I think she will be well suited to a race with more emphasis on stamina. She will probably have to improve on her hurdles form to date to win here but she had plenty of flat ability and I think the extra half mile can eke out further improvement from her.
However, I fancy race fitness may play a big part in the outcome of this race and with that in mind I am going to go with OUR KAEMPFER who was third over course and distance in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in April. He has to be ridden patiently and in big fields he can often get too far behind so this small field should suit his running style well. His trainer admitted that he would come on for the run before his engagement at Chepstow in October but he still ran well to finish fourth behind Court Minstrel. He was staying on in the closing stages which suggested that the return to three miles should be right up his street. His trainer believes that his current mark of 140 is workable for the six-year-old and with race fitness on his side, he gets the nod.
Advice
OUR KAEMPFER – 2pts win @ 3/1 (Bet365)
2.05 Wincanton – Badger Ales Trophy (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race)
The Badger Ales Trophy is perennially one of the most competitive staying handicap chases on the calendar and this year is no different. Paul Nicholls may hold all the aces though as he saddles a pair that hold leading claims. Last year’s fourth, Benvolio, returns here on a 6lb higher mark but he improved throughout last season and the eight-year-old will benefit from another season chasing under his belt. Following his run at Wincanton, he headed to Chepstow for the Welsh National and was only narrowly beaten in a ding-dong battle up the run-in. He can be forgiven his next start given he made a mistake early on and was never going a yard thereafter. Any rain will be a massive plus as he seems to relish ploughing through the mud.
His stablemate, THE OULD LAD, however, looks the one to beat on his debut for Nicholls having left Tom George over the summer. The winning Irish pointer came into his own over fences last campaign, finishing second in a valuable Grade 3 handicap chase as a novice at Cheltenham last December. The unexposed seven-year-old disappointed a couple of times after that over inadequate trips and found the Kim Muir at the Festival a step too far at that stage of his career. His move to a new yard promises to freshen him up this campaign and he is of great interest carrying a featherweight (10st 2lb) now 2lb lower than his Cheltenham second.
In contrast, Carole’s Destrier has the burden of top weight but he does boast the best form in the book and cannot be ruled out. The seven-year-old easily landed a similar contest to this at Ascot in February and is now inly 7lb higher than when coasting home that day by eight lengths. He hails from the in-form Neil Mulholland yard, who have proven themselves most adept at winning these sort of races over the years with the likes of The Druids Nephew and last year’s disqualified winner of this The Young Master. He was sent off as a 4/1 shot in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase at the Aintree Festival which tells you everything you need to know about his potential.
Advice
THE OULD LAD – 1pt win @ 7/2 (General)
2.30 Aintree – Betfred Hurdle
A number catch the eye in this select field and it looks to be a tricky race to master. 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth makes his first start over hurdles since landing the Albert Bartlett at the 2011 Festival in what looks sure to be a prep-run for either the Betfair Chase or Hennessy Gold Cup at the end of the month. He undoubtedly has ability but question marks surround him after last season’s disappointments and he doesn’t look as though he has the toe for two and a half miles these days.
This race also looks to be a stepping stone for his stablemate SIMONSIG, who arrives at Aintree having not been seen on a race track for the past two seasons since his victory in the 2013 Arkle. Undoubtedly, this spin over hurdles will just be used to blow away the cobwebs but this has been the plan with him and it would be no surprise to see him in the thick of it at the finish. Few can forget his imperious display in the 2012 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and, if the vibes emanating from Seven Barrows are true, he could well be up to taking this.
Royal Boy is another that has had a long lay-off having not appeared since landing the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle in January 2014. He looked an exciting prospect but his long absence and the fact he was sold out of the Henderson stable for only £8,000 in May, supports the belief that he is nowhere near the force of old.
A pair of John Ferguson inmates complete the field and while Commissioned will be race-fit, Purple Bay looks to hold the strongest credentials of the two. The well-bred six-year-old flourished last season, landing the Listed Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen and taking the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton before finishing runner-up to Champion Hurdler Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at Kemton on Boxing Day. He had a niggling injury after that and hasn’t been seen since but rates an interesting contender in the top-level hurdles this year. The Fighting Fifth at Newcastle had been mooted as an early season target for him and he may strip fitter for his run here but even with giving 5lb to the rest of the field, he must be considered as a leading contender.
Advice
FORECAST – SIMONSIG TO BEAT PURPLE BAY – 1pt
2.40 Wincanton – Bruton Mares´ Handicap Hurdle
Harry Fry took this race two years ago with Highland Retreat and hit the post twelve months ago with Blue Buttons and this time around he saddles Desert Queen. The seven-year-old won her first two starts over hurdles last March and she was pulled up when stepped into Grade 1 company on her last run of the season. The point winner is lightly-raced and her trainer believes that she can improve on what she did last year with that experience under her belt. This race is obviously one her trainer targets and given his fine recent record in the race, she looks worth a place on the shortlist.
Towards the foot of the weights, Philip Hobbs has an interesting representative in the shape of Kayf Willow who made a winning return to action at Newton Abbot in October. She ran on strongly to get the better of Lady Of Longstone and despite a 5lb rise in the weights, there could be more to come from here. That was only her fourth start over hurdles and having seemingly improved for the step up to 2m4f last time, she could run a big race in receipt of weight from most of her main rivals.
However, there could be a potentially top-class mare in the field in the shape of KALANE who won two of her four starts last term including a valuable Listed handicap at Newbury in March. She was far from disgraced when no match for Annie Power at Punchestown in May and with another summer under her belt, I expect she has improved physically. Her trainer has reported her to be in good form ahead of her return to action and he expects her to be contesting Graded races for much of the rest of the campaign. She does have to concede weight to all of her rivals here but she is entitled to do so and I fancy her to make a winning return to action.
Advice
KALANE – 1pt win @ 3/1 (Bet365)
3.05 Aintree – Betfred ‘Scoop6Soccer’ Handicap Chase
A race where it’s difficult to discount too many, but a few stand out for me, starting with Dan Skelton’s Upepito, who ran well on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, just being edged out by Village Vic in the closing stages. The seven-year-old can be expected to have come on for that and should go well off just 2lb higher.
Ballygarvey was highly tried by Philip Hobbs last season, but despite some average-looking form, could still have more to come in handicaps. He goes well in testing ground and will strip fitter after his run at Chepstow three weeks ago.
Hobbs’ other runner, Bincombe will be able to run effectively with 10st after 7lb claimer Conor Smith was booked, and could be a threat. The last time Smith rode the horse, he won a handicap chase at Chepstow, so expect a prominent showing from this improver.
Pepite Rose has to carry top weight but she is definitely the classiest performer in the field and should run well enough, but the ground could go against her.
But it is MINELLA FORFITNESS who takes my eye most, after a good seasonal debut at Fakenham, chasing home the potentially smart novice Katgary, the eight-year-old should be spot on for this and if reaching something like his useful hurdles form, may be on a lenient chasing mark. The ex-Nicky Henderson inmate now resides at Charles Pogson’s yard and although he has taken a while to hit the right notes there, it looks as if he is ready to resume his earlier progress and could well be worth taking a chance on.
Advice
MINELLA FORFITNESS – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
3.15 Wincanton – StanJames.com Elite Hurdle (Grade 2)
A decent-looking renewal of the Elite Hurdle and as John Ferguson won this race last year with Purple Bay, his first string runner, Francis Of Assisi, looks a good place to start. The Danehill Dancer gelding is unbeaten over hurdles in three starts and the form of his latest win over Ch’Tibello was boosted last weekend when the Skelton inmate pushed the well-regarded Altior all the way at Ascot. The worry for me is his lack of experience in what looks a fairly hot race. He’s clearly talented but this might be too much to ask.
One whose experience is not in question is IRVING, who, despite giving weight to all rivals here, has to go into the race with a big chance. Conditions should suit – his record over two miles in soft ground is 1112 – and it wasn’t long ago that this horse was considered a genuine Champion Hurdle contender. Last season didn’t go to plan for the Paul Nicholls horse, but he’s always been good on seasonal reappearances (was running well when falling at the last in this last year) and I think there could well be more to come if he has brushed up his jumping.
Nicholls’ other runner in the race is the promising All Yours, whose fifth in the Fred Winter and win in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree read as good juvenile form, especially in the latter when defeating smart types such as Devilment, Bristol De Mai and Hargam. With 7lb less to carry than his stablemate, he could be well-handicapped but I have a feeling he may just need the run.
Another horse who will enjoy the likely testing conditions is Melodic Rendezvous, who returns to hurdles after four spins over fences. On his best form, he would hold real claims and he has won this race before (in 2013) carrying 3lb more than he has to today. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he outran his current 10/1 odds under Richard Johnson and ran into a place.
Current favourite Zarib sneaks into the race under a featherweight, but despite the market vibes being very positive and a pull in the weights with All Yours on Fred Winter form, I’d be surprised if he could turn the tables on that rival, let alone the two more experienced runners
Advice
IRVING – 2pts win @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
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