Paddypower Gold Cup Saturday 14th November.

[Liam301287]

Surprise there ain't a thread up yet. One of biggest hcps for jumps this early in season as well. There one horse I like look of next week is generous ransom ran course distance before. Won at Cheltenham. Around 16/1 - 25/1. Will be having few quid on this one before next Saturday.I reckon he get in.

[Istabraq]

This is a meeting I always look forward to, attend every year, but can't ever remember having the PP winner or having a winning day so steer clear of me !
I was keen to get with Present View after a good effort last year and positive comments on this 'ere forum, but he was too bad to be true last week and somnething is clearly a miss, unlikely to line up.
.
One I like at a price is Double Ross, loves soft ground (in fact he needs it), ran very well off 150 last time (same race as Present View) to finish 2nd on seasonal debut, escapes a rise.

The Nichols winner from last week, Vibrato Valtat has to enter calculations too...

[bitchy]

The below trends are posted with permission from the author:


PADDY POWER GOLD CUP TRENDS 2015


The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 14th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 13th to 15th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-3-13

6yo: 2-6-34

7yo: 6-9-50

8yo: 1-4-42

9yo: 0-8-25

10yo: 0-0-12

11yo+: 0-0-7

Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-18-97

Horses aged 8+: 1-12-86

None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 6-11-75

Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 4-19-108

Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more from less than 41% of total runners.

Top Weight: 4FPP65PPP42 (0-3-11)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 150 or higher: 1-9-46

Horses rated 139 to 149: 9-12-94

Horses rated 138 or less: 0-9-43

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 139 to 149 from 51.4% of total runners.



Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham (1 exception placed at previous 2 Cheltenham Festivals)

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 3F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point wand was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F)

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better

5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle, one other placed in listed handicap chase)

4 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 6 had run once that season, 4 winning, 1 finished 2nd and other 7th in Galway Plate)

5 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences

10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

8 of last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree



Other Races

Winner.co.uk Handicap Chase winner (Boondooma): 43F285312 (1-5-9)

CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): 1F3P53 (1-2-6)

Record of first 7 from CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P521063 (3-5-18)

Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 1 (1-0-1)

Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 3 (0-1-1)

Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Gitane Du Berlais): 64 (0-1-2)

Dipper Novice Chase winner (Ptit Zig): 94 (0-1-2)

Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Clarcam): 846 (0-1-3)

Grand Annual winner (Next Sensation): 90 (0-0-2)

Greatwood Gold Cup winner (Sound Investment): 96 (0-0-2)

Freebets.co.uk Trophy H'cap Chase winner (Annacotty): 706 (0-0-3)

Timeform Novice H'cap Chase winner (Generous Ransom): 6UF0 (0-0-4)

BetBright Best For Cheltenham Handicap Chase winner (Splash Of Ginge): PPPP (0-0-4)

Brown Advisory Plate winner (Darna): 7PP600 (0-0-6)

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 167

2 of 2 third season chaser winners ran in previous year's December Gold Cup, finishing F2

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in John Smith's H'cap Chase, finishing 63

6 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival



Trainers

Jonjo O’Neill (2-2-12) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006 & John’s Spirt to win it in 2013 and finish 2nd in 2014.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-13) trained the winner in in 2008 & 2010 and a placed finisher in 2007 & 2009.

Paul Nicholls (2-2-19) saddled the winner in 2012 & 2014.

The Pipe stable (2-1-15) have accounted for 4 of the last 13 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-13) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011.

Nicky Henderson (0-7-20), Alan King (0-4-10) & Phillip Hobbs (0-3-9) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2005.

Jamie Snowden (0-1-1) & Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-3) have both saddled a placed finisher in last 2 years.

Irish based trainers (1-2-19) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.



Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 9/2 and 10/1

The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.

Favourites (2-3-10) have gained 2 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2005 and show a £1 level stakes profit of £2.00.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7

- Officially rated 139 to 149

- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase

- Had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree

- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F

- Second or third season chaser (preferably 2nd season chaser)

- Previously run less than 10 times over fences

- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

- First 3 in 2014 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup

- Ran in a chase at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival

- Finished in first 7 in CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novice Handicap Chase

- Trained in Great Britain

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Jonjo O’Neill.

[dazzler]

ANNACOTTY now with Alan King looks an interesting entry!

"Annacotty is new to me this season. He is doing well and would be ready to run the first half of November, but we will chat to the owners and see where we go with him.

"He is possibly a horse that may be better caught fresh, but we are still learning. From what we've seen so far, we are happy. He is a very likeable horse that has a good attitude.”

[Istabraq]

They clearly rate the horse dazzler, he has Hennessy and King George entries.
Just 3lb higher than when winning on Trials day last year too....

[Istabraq]

Ptit Zig is of interest if he runs.
Plenty of confidence behind him when over in Ireland last week where he slammed Clarcam almost 10l suggests connections think the horse has Summered well and improved on his novice season, he didn't always jump fluently in the race but won convincingly, 16s would seem a nice price for a horse we know acts on the track, although he hasn't tackled the Old Course fences yet he was 3rd in the Fred Winter and only 14l behind Jezki in the champion hurdle on the Old Course hurdles track and won the Novices Chase on New Years Day last season

[Faugheen_Machine]

The ones I'm interested in are Splash of Ginge, Kings Palace and Monetaire. Splash of Ginge has another big handicap in him and I'm hoping it's this Saturday.

In the Greatwood - I'm all over Mick Jazz, just hope he gets a run.

[mayo]

howdi folks

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham (1 exception placed at previous 2 Cheltenham Festivals)

so cheltenham winning form would give us

Ptit Zig
Johns Spirit
Kings Palace
Boondooma
Double Ross
New Sensation
Cloudy Creeper
Splash of ginge
Buywise
Art Murusuque
Annacotty
Darna
Present View
Generous Ransom
Astracad


Have as may previous course winners ever been in one race ?

I know they wont all make it but I am tempted to be contrary and back something that hasnt won on the course. 40% of last 10 races won without a course win ?

The 6/7 year old stat

Cant ignore this in my view - have won 80% of races having made up less than 46% of the field.

139-149 Rating

Won 90% of races from less than 52% of field..so ignoring the 150+ and going with 6/7 and illogically going against the course form angle

leaves me with

Monetaire
Easter Day
Shanpallas

will hang on for ground and probably decs but thats my list

[Istabraq]

Have to say that having spent some time on this race earlier I am starting to warm to Buywise.
Watched last years race and he kicked half the fences out the ground and was only beaten 3l staying on better than everything apart from the winner, similar rating and fit from run already this season, 16s is a nice price....

[Istabraq]

I note one of those that hits the trends is Generous Ransom and there's blue across the board for this one on Oddschecker today.
On a line through festival form with Irish Cavalier he has to finish in front of that horse being over a stone better off for 3l, I'll forgive the horse his Sandown run which was too bad to be true but I was there that day and it was false ground after overwatering, something to may remember Warren Greatrex having strong words about as the chances of his mount in the Whitbread/Bet365, Paint the Clouds, were all but ruined by the false ground.
As for Generous Ransom that was his 7th run of the season and he may have been over the top.
A reintroduction over timber at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago would have blown away the cobwebs and he could be ready to run a big race, one slight concern would be the form of Nick Gifford who hasn't exactly flown out of the traps this season....

[mayo]

I note one of those that hits the trends is Generous Ransom and there's blue across the board for this one on Oddschecker today.
On a line through festival form with Irish Cavalier he has to finish in front of that horse being over a stone better off for 3l, I'll forgive the horse his Sandown run which was too bad to be true but I was there that day and it was false ground after overwatering, something to may remember Warren Greatrex having strong words about as the chances of his mount in the Whitbread/Bet365, Paint the Clouds, were all but ruined by the false ground.
As for Generous Ransom that was his 7th run of the season and he may have been over the top.
A reintroduction over timber at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago would have blown away the cobwebs and he could be ready to run a big race, one slight concern would be the form of Nick Gifford who hasn't exactly flown out of the traps this season....

if you can forgive the last run looks a good shout.

[Morning Glory]

I can never pick the winner of this race

Little Jon is the one I fancy as an ew poke.

[mayo]

I can never pick the winner of this race

Little Jon is the one I fancy as an ew poke.

are we all looking at the festival novice handicap for the winner

Record of first 7 from CHAPS Restaurant Barbados Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P521063 (3-5-18)

[mayo]

Taken 25s about Shanpallas now decs are out. Not sure he will run and would prefer the rain to stay away but 1lb lower than last year when 6th on soft. 7 year old now and hopefully can see out finish a bit better now.

Next Sensation also over priced at 40s - he is probably more likely to run Sunday but money back now if he doesnt show.

GL all.

[bitchy]

Paddy Power Gold Cup – 2.25 Cheltenham – Saturday 14th November


One of the strongest trends associated with this race is the one related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 136 and 150. This accounts for all but one of the last ten winners, with Al Ferof having won off a mark of 159 three years ago. In terms of this year’s field it eliminates the top eight as they appear on the racecard (from Sound Investment down to Double Ross).

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last ten renewals. They account for just under half of the field this time around with some of the main names including Cocktails At Dawn, Present View and Kings Palace. Of the other four races in the last decade two have gone the way of six-year-olds which is a positive for supporters of Irish Cavalier.

Weight can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this and the Paddy Power is no exception. Of the last ten renewals only two horses have carried more than 11st 5lb to victory which confirms that Sound Investment down to Cocktails at Dawn are up against it.

Strong form on their most recent start is something that always seems to crop up as a positive in these sorts of races and the Paddy Power is no different. Seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fourth on their last start, something that just under half of this year’s field have in common. However, this stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt as many of these horses will be making their seasonal debuts on Saturday so recent form may be as far back as March or April.

In terms of trainers, there are three yards which have tasted success more than once in the last decade, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2006 & 2013), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008 & 2010) and the Pipe yard (2005 & 2011). It is therefore worth taking a second look at runners from the yards above.

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and historically this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a big price. In fact seven of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs with Little Josh (20/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. David Pipe’s Kings Palace currently leads the market with Boondooma and Irish Cavalier also available at single figure prices.


Shortlist

KINGS PALACE – 3/6

Double Ross – 3/6

Buywise – 3/6

Present View – 3/6


Conclusion


It isn’t often that you don’t get a standout in terms of the trends but we appear to have something of a stalemate between four here and all of them have their own obstacles to overcome.

KINGS PALACE gets the narrow preference on account of his yard’s record in the race as well as the strong record of fancied horses in the race in the past. He has won at this meeting for the last two years and if anything his form is strongest at this time of year, with his few disappointments having come in the Spring. He is a high-class graded chaser in my eyes and considering his relatively high handicap mark he gets weight from a few of his rivals here. He loves it here at Cheltenham and in a wide open heat, it is hard to look past the market leader.

Double Ross is no stranger to success here at Cheltenham and has won twice over course and distance as well as finishing third in the JLT Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2014. It is fair to say that he lost his way a little last season but he seemed to be back to his best when chasing home Pendra on his return to action at the end of last month. He should benefit from that run and it would be no surprise to see him outrun his sizeable odds.

Last year’s renewal is also represented with several runners returning for more but Present View and Buywise fare best when it comes to the trends. Both have had runs to get them ready for this early season assignment and having not been beaten far in the race last year, there is no reason why they can’t go well again this time around.