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1.45 Ascot – Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase.
This looks a pretty competitive early season novice and, with four of the field tackling fences for the first time, it may pay to side with those with greater affinity of the larger obstacles. Gary Moore’s Vikekhal boasts the most chasing experience in the field and arrives at Ascot searching for the hat-trick following a couple of convincing wins at Fontwell. His latest victory was most impressive as he took the race by the scruff of the neck from the front (albeit racing rather freely in the early stages) and never looked like being caught after that. His jumping has improved markedly since he embarked on a chasing career and this well-bred six-year-old will have a leading chance if afforded an easy lead up front.
However, the lightly-raced VOIX D’EAU is potentially a steep improver and if building on his latest Ffos Las rout, he could well be a blot on the handicap. His win at the Welsh track was only his fourth run in Britain since leaving Emmanuel Clayeux and only his second run over fences. Harry Fry’s charge rounded off last campaign with a fine effort in a Stratford handicap hurdle to finish third behind subsequent Aintree Festival winner Astre De La Cour. He looked like he needed his run back at the Midlands track when finishing second on his chase debut in September and duly made amends on his following start. He has gone up 8lb for that success but has talented amateur Michael Legg in the saddle to take 7lb off and negate the rise.
Of those making their chasing debuts, Padge appeals most given that he is a winning Irish pointer (a race in which he accounted for subsequent Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 winner Very Wood in the process) and ran a cracking race to finish runner-up over the hurdles course at Ascot back in February. Evan Williams’ six-year-old has always had the scope to be a force over fences and promises to be a most interesting recruit to the chasing ranks.
Advice
VOIX D’EAU – 1pt win on @ 4/1 (bet365 & Betvictor)
2.00 Wetherby – Bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade 2).
The West Yorkshire Hurdle boasts a sublime roll of honour and with World Hurdle winner Cole Harden taking last year’s renewal, the season’s premier staying hurdle will be on the agenda for whoever triumphs here. Perhaps the best equipped to deal with the conditions is ROCK ON RUBY. The former Champion Hurdler threatened to make a World Hurdle appearance last season but Harry Fry put his plans on hold for another year. A pair of two and a half mile Cheltenham wins last campaign, including in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle, showed that he remains a top-quality campaigner and the ten-year-old could well be a class above the rest of the field. The veteran has been a grand hurdler for some time now with his strong travelling style and relaxed nature sure to help with the step up to three miles.
Although only officially 1lb inferior to his more illustrious rival, Kilcooley requires a big step up on what he has shown in his career to date, but that might not be completely out of the question. He ran away with a Haydock handicap hurdle last December before achieving his greatest success to date when landing the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. He has been described by connections as ‘an out-and-out’ galloper so should be well suited to three miles. Charlie Longsdon’s string have been in flying form and if the six-year-old is ready to go first time up, he could give Harry Fry’s stable-star a fright.
One with proven form at the trip is Closing Ceremony, who landed a shock win in the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock in February. He proved to be highly progressive last term and there could well be more to come from him. However, he does carry an 8lb penalty for his latest win and may have something to find on these terms.
Advice
ROCK ON RUBY – 2pts win @ 3/1 (bet365, Coral, Skybet & Boylesports)
2.15 Ascot – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race).
This looks a competitive race for the time of year and the first place to start is with Bellenos who has continued to frustrate his connections in the last eighteen months. He had his wind operated on last winter and the fitting of blinkers seemed to bring about some improvement from the seven-year-old in the spring as he ran well to finish fourth in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree in April. He also raced a little keenly next time at Kempton although it is worth noting that he would have finished closer to the principals had he not made a bad mistake at the second last. He was fourth in the race last year off a 7lb higher mark and if he can cut out the jumping errors, he could be a lively contender.
The same can probably be said for Sgt Reckless who has won two of his three starts over fences with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival. He should be fit having had a run on the flat in September and although he is light on experience, we know from his hurdles days that he isn’t short of ability. Personally I think his mark over fences is a little high at the moment and whilst I think he can win some races this year, he may have a tough task conceding weight to all but two of his rivals here. The ground should suit him and I fancy him to give a solid display but I have the suspicion that he might find one or two to be too good on the day.
With that in mind I am going to go with last year’s winner ULCK DU LIN to repeat the fete despite racing here off a 15lb higher mark. He gave a promising 7lb claimer by the name of Sean Bowen a good spin last year and he looks to have another good young pilot on his back in Harry Cobden this time around. The seven-year-old was last seen winning at Wincanton in April under Cobden and the good ground on offer here should be ideal for him. He has won here twice as well as running well in defeat last December and on the back of that course form, he gets the nod.
Advice
ULCK DU LIN – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill)
2.30 Wetherby – Olbg.Com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race).
Nicky Henderson’s Ma Filleule is likely to be popular in the betting considering that she was taking part at a lot of the big festivals last season, finishing second in Grade 1 company on more than one occasion. However those runs were over 2m4f over fences and she switches back to two miles over hurdles for the first time since finishing second to Doyly Carte in April 2013. She does get a significant weight allowance from her two main rivals at the head of the field but she hasn’t been seen since April and at the prices, I wouldn’t be too keen on taking a short price about her on her first start back.
Harry Fry’s Blue Buttons is no stranger to races such as this and the seven-year-old got her head in front over 2m4f at Wincanton last January. She is not likely to be too far away and could well set the pace in the hands of Noel Fehily although I have a sneaking suspicion that she could find this two miles a little sharp for her.
However, Karl Burke’s INTENSE TANGO was not far from the head of the juvenile ranks last season and having won a Grade 2 at Doncaster in January she ran well in very good company on her final two starts. She has had three runs on the flat over the summer which compared to her old form suggest she may have improved over the summer and with the ground not likely to be too soft, she looks to have a good chance. As I mentioned she has to concede 8lb to Nicky Henderson’s mare but she has the benefit of fitness on her side and with that rival having raced over further, I think Karl Burke’s filly may just have too much toe for her in the closing stages so she gets the vote.
Advice
INTENSE TANGO – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
2.50 Ascot – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race].
An intriguing Listed Handicap Hurdle, with last year’s winner Sign Of A Victory returning to try and follow up 2014’s success, but it looks a tougher task this time around carrying top weight of 11st 12lb, a full 15lb more than any other horse in the race. While the Nicky Henderson inmate has the best form in the race, including a close second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in his last start in April, and should run well, he could well find it difficult to give so much weight to some unexposed competition, especially considering he seems to enjoy good ground and it could well be getting towards soft come post time.
Jolly’s Cracked It looked a very promising hurdler early last season for Harry Fry’s stable, but seemed to lose his way towards the end of the campaign, albeit in the face of some competitive races. His second to L’Ami Serge in the Tolworth Hurdle and staying-on fifth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury look fairly solid bits of form, while the Cheltenham Festival’s two and a half mile Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle stretched his stamina too much after going well for much of the race, so a return to Ascot’s two miles will suit. If the six-year-old can return to his promising early novice hurdle form, he could go well at a track he has a 2-2 record at.
Unanimite was highly regarded as a juvenile hurdler early on last season for the Pipe team, finishing a six-length eighth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, but his form tailed off as the season went on and it may be the case that he is better fresh. I expect that he’ll outrun his odds of 12/1, but there could end up being a few too good.
I think this has shaped up to be a good race to take a chance on the in-form John Ferguson’s unexposed NABUCCO, who may have escaped with a lenient assessment from the handicapper after winning on the bridle in a novices’ hurdle at Huntingdon. It might have been a fairly poor race, but the way the once 109-rated flat performer cruised through the race under a confident ride oozed quality. On his first start over hurdles, Nabucco was a seven length second to Cardinal Palace, who went on to be short-headed in the Grade 2 Persian War hurdle at Chepstow, so a mark of 132 could underestimate the Dansili gelding’s potential. Any deterioration in the ground shouldn’t inconvenience him and a good run is expected.
Advice
NABUCCO – 1pt win @ 10/3 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor, SkyBet)
3.05 Wetherby – Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)
A superb renewal of the Charlie Hall Chase with seven high-class chasers contesting, including Philip Hobbs’ winner from 12 months ago, Menorah, who faces a tougher task to take the spoils this time around. The 10-year-old has an excellent record outside of Grade 1 company in the last couple of years, winning all three starts, but even though this is a Grade 2 in name, the opposition is worthy of a Grade 1 and may be just too hot for the veteran of the race given that he runs off 11st 10lb and has to give 10lb to some very classy rivals.
One such rival and favourite at the time of writing, Cue Card, makes his first start since finishing a well-beaten fourth to Don Cossack in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April after well-documented issues with a stress-fracture and a persistent wind problem. He hasn’t reached the heights of his seven-year-old campaign, when winning the Ryanair Chase and the Betfair Chase, since and it’s tough to imagine him instantly returning to that level. I think he might just need the run, but trainer Colin Tizzard is hopeful about his charge’s chance and it wouldn’t surprise at all to see a performance better than last season’s offerings. However, 7/2 (Bet365) isn’t a price I’d want to take about one with so many doubts.
Holywell is undoubtedly better in the spring than at this time of year, and has always needed a couple of runs to get into top form, failing to win a race before Christmas since 2011. His best form would give him a decent chance off 11st 6lb, but this is likely to be a stepping stone to the big chases of 2016.
Sam Winner carries the maximum weight, and has a good record after a break, but it’s questionable whether he will have the class to challenge the best in this race. Sean Bowen takes the ride for Paul Nicholls as Sam Twiston-Davies is at Down Royal to ride Ptit Zig, a pointer in itself.
Grand National hero Many Clouds is another horse who is making his seasonal reappearance, but while it’s clear he is a tough, classy chaser, it would be some effort to win a race such as this first time out even though his record when fresh is excellent. I expect the eight-year-old to run a perfectly decent race and maybe even plug on for a place, but the fact he carries 10lb more than Dynaste, Ballynagour and Cue Card dampens enthusiasm for what would be a hugely popular win for Oliver Sherwood’s stable star.
The only horse in the field with something approaching a ‘prep run’ is David Pipe’s DYNASTE, who finished a staying-on ninth in the Prix Carmarthen, a Grade 3 Hurdle at Auteuil three weeks ago. After beginning his 2014/15 campaign in the Betfair Chase, it seems a significant change of strategy from the Pipe yard, making sure that the striking grey is a little more race-fit than he has been for his early-season targets in the past. It looks a hint worth taking for a horse that has performed well at Grade 1 level over the past two years, especially given that he is so well treated at the weights here, escaping a penalty and running off 10lb lower than many of his rivals. An effort similar to his good second to Silviniaco Conti in the 2014 King George VI Chase would give the gelding a huge chance and I think he’s the best bet here. Conor O’Farrell takes the ride due to Tom Scudamore’s injury, but I don’t think that is a major worry.
Interestingly, Pipe has two horses in the race, and Ballynagour joins his stablemate in running off 11st. The nine-year-old improved hand over fist last season, pushing Silviniaco Conti all the way in the Betfred Bowl Chase at Aintree and looked to be going well when falling four out in the Punchestown Gold Cup. However, his record first time out in the last two seasons is uninspiring to say the least – PU PU. The gelding could be an improving chaser to follow this season and has a real chance on his best form, but could just need the run here under Noel Fehily.
Advice
DYNASTE – 2pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet, Betfred, Stan James)
3.25 Ascot – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase.
Perennially one of the top staying handicap chases on the calendar and the last two year’s winners are in the field as Houblon Des Obeaux and What A Warrior take their chance once again. LE REVE skipped this contest last year in favour of the Silver Cup over course and distance in December and ran with great credit to finish a close-up third behind the well-treated The Young Master. From that moment forward, the seven-year-old went from strength to strength, landing a valuable handicap at Sandown in January before registering two further career-bests when second in the Betbright Chase and third in the bet365 Gold Cup. Lucy Wadham’s charge has been successful on his seasonal debut for each of the last two years so must have a leading chance in this afternoon’s contest.
Pendra has proven frustrating to follow over fences but he does remain relatively unexposed in that sphere so can be granted another chance. He was lightly-raced last campaign and the plan almost came to fruition as he was well-fancied at the Cheltenham Festival where he finished fifth, only losing two places on the run-in. Connections have always believed him to be a stayer and even threw him in at the deep end as a novice when having a crack at the Irish National. With Charlie Longsdon’s string in such imperious form, it would be folly to ignore him and, although his recent form figures don’t suggest a win is necessarily on the cards, he is just the type to prove everyone wrong.
Further behind him at Cheltenham was Ned Stark who was sent off the well-backed 6/1 favourite but could only manage to finish a well-beaten eighth in the end. However, that was an admirable effort given he was still a novice and it was by far the biggest field he had encountered over fences. He remains one of the top handicap chasing prospects for this season and, with few miles on the clock, could be a step ahead of the assessor at this stage of the season.
Bettrends Advice
LE REVE – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (SkyBet)
4.00 Ayr – Tennent´s Cup Handicap Hurdle.
Our final race of the day sees a familiar name in the shape of GLINGERBURN who won his first four starts over hurdles last season including a Grade 2 at Kelso in February in which he got the better of Bristol De Mai and Intense Tango. He failed to justify favouritism when attempting to double up at Aintree in April but he nevertheless had a smart novice campaign. He didn’t travel as well as normal on his latest outing and his rider suggested that it may have been one dance too far for him at the end of a long season. This is obviously a handicap so he has to concede weight all around but he was bordering on Grade 1 class at the end of last term and off a mark of 149, he looks hard to oppose on his return to action.
His main danger looks likely to be Brian Ellison’s Forest Bihan who was purchased following a nine lengths success in France last November. His trainer is reported to be very keen on this individual and whilst we have yet to see him on a racecourse in England, the 17lb he receives from the market leader is likely to bring the pair very close together. He obviously needs to step forward on what he has done so far but I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to give the favourite a bit of a fright.
Of the rest, this time of year looks likely to be the time to catch Lightening Rod who was second on his return to action last season before winning twice at Wetherby, the last of which came off a 2lb lower mark than he races off here. He lost his form somewhat after that but Harry Bannister gets a good tune out of him and I could see the ten-year-old bouncing back and running well on his first start since April.
Advice
GLINGERBURN – 1pt win @ 11/4 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
This looks a pretty competitive early season novice and, with four of the field tackling fences for the first time, it may pay to side with those with greater affinity of the larger obstacles. Gary Moore’s Vikekhal boasts the most chasing experience in the field and arrives at Ascot searching for the hat-trick following a couple of convincing wins at Fontwell. His latest victory was most impressive as he took the race by the scruff of the neck from the front (albeit racing rather freely in the early stages) and never looked like being caught after that. His jumping has improved markedly since he embarked on a chasing career and this well-bred six-year-old will have a leading chance if afforded an easy lead up front.
However, the lightly-raced VOIX D’EAU is potentially a steep improver and if building on his latest Ffos Las rout, he could well be a blot on the handicap. His win at the Welsh track was only his fourth run in Britain since leaving Emmanuel Clayeux and only his second run over fences. Harry Fry’s charge rounded off last campaign with a fine effort in a Stratford handicap hurdle to finish third behind subsequent Aintree Festival winner Astre De La Cour. He looked like he needed his run back at the Midlands track when finishing second on his chase debut in September and duly made amends on his following start. He has gone up 8lb for that success but has talented amateur Michael Legg in the saddle to take 7lb off and negate the rise.
Of those making their chasing debuts, Padge appeals most given that he is a winning Irish pointer (a race in which he accounted for subsequent Cheltenham Festival Grade 1 winner Very Wood in the process) and ran a cracking race to finish runner-up over the hurdles course at Ascot back in February. Evan Williams’ six-year-old has always had the scope to be a force over fences and promises to be a most interesting recruit to the chasing ranks.
Advice
VOIX D’EAU – 1pt win on @ 4/1 (bet365 & Betvictor)
2.00 Wetherby – Bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade 2).
The West Yorkshire Hurdle boasts a sublime roll of honour and with World Hurdle winner Cole Harden taking last year’s renewal, the season’s premier staying hurdle will be on the agenda for whoever triumphs here. Perhaps the best equipped to deal with the conditions is ROCK ON RUBY. The former Champion Hurdler threatened to make a World Hurdle appearance last season but Harry Fry put his plans on hold for another year. A pair of two and a half mile Cheltenham wins last campaign, including in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle, showed that he remains a top-quality campaigner and the ten-year-old could well be a class above the rest of the field. The veteran has been a grand hurdler for some time now with his strong travelling style and relaxed nature sure to help with the step up to three miles.
Although only officially 1lb inferior to his more illustrious rival, Kilcooley requires a big step up on what he has shown in his career to date, but that might not be completely out of the question. He ran away with a Haydock handicap hurdle last December before achieving his greatest success to date when landing the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell. He has been described by connections as ‘an out-and-out’ galloper so should be well suited to three miles. Charlie Longsdon’s string have been in flying form and if the six-year-old is ready to go first time up, he could give Harry Fry’s stable-star a fright.
One with proven form at the trip is Closing Ceremony, who landed a shock win in the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock in February. He proved to be highly progressive last term and there could well be more to come from him. However, he does carry an 8lb penalty for his latest win and may have something to find on these terms.
Advice
ROCK ON RUBY – 2pts win @ 3/1 (bet365, Coral, Skybet & Boylesports)
2.15 Ascot – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race).
This looks a competitive race for the time of year and the first place to start is with Bellenos who has continued to frustrate his connections in the last eighteen months. He had his wind operated on last winter and the fitting of blinkers seemed to bring about some improvement from the seven-year-old in the spring as he ran well to finish fourth in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree in April. He also raced a little keenly next time at Kempton although it is worth noting that he would have finished closer to the principals had he not made a bad mistake at the second last. He was fourth in the race last year off a 7lb higher mark and if he can cut out the jumping errors, he could be a lively contender.
The same can probably be said for Sgt Reckless who has won two of his three starts over fences with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival. He should be fit having had a run on the flat in September and although he is light on experience, we know from his hurdles days that he isn’t short of ability. Personally I think his mark over fences is a little high at the moment and whilst I think he can win some races this year, he may have a tough task conceding weight to all but two of his rivals here. The ground should suit him and I fancy him to give a solid display but I have the suspicion that he might find one or two to be too good on the day.
With that in mind I am going to go with last year’s winner ULCK DU LIN to repeat the fete despite racing here off a 15lb higher mark. He gave a promising 7lb claimer by the name of Sean Bowen a good spin last year and he looks to have another good young pilot on his back in Harry Cobden this time around. The seven-year-old was last seen winning at Wincanton in April under Cobden and the good ground on offer here should be ideal for him. He has won here twice as well as running well in defeat last December and on the back of that course form, he gets the nod.
Advice
ULCK DU LIN – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill)
2.30 Wetherby – Olbg.Com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race).
Nicky Henderson’s Ma Filleule is likely to be popular in the betting considering that she was taking part at a lot of the big festivals last season, finishing second in Grade 1 company on more than one occasion. However those runs were over 2m4f over fences and she switches back to two miles over hurdles for the first time since finishing second to Doyly Carte in April 2013. She does get a significant weight allowance from her two main rivals at the head of the field but she hasn’t been seen since April and at the prices, I wouldn’t be too keen on taking a short price about her on her first start back.
Harry Fry’s Blue Buttons is no stranger to races such as this and the seven-year-old got her head in front over 2m4f at Wincanton last January. She is not likely to be too far away and could well set the pace in the hands of Noel Fehily although I have a sneaking suspicion that she could find this two miles a little sharp for her.
However, Karl Burke’s INTENSE TANGO was not far from the head of the juvenile ranks last season and having won a Grade 2 at Doncaster in January she ran well in very good company on her final two starts. She has had three runs on the flat over the summer which compared to her old form suggest she may have improved over the summer and with the ground not likely to be too soft, she looks to have a good chance. As I mentioned she has to concede 8lb to Nicky Henderson’s mare but she has the benefit of fitness on her side and with that rival having raced over further, I think Karl Burke’s filly may just have too much toe for her in the closing stages so she gets the vote.
Advice
INTENSE TANGO – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
2.50 Ascot – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race].
An intriguing Listed Handicap Hurdle, with last year’s winner Sign Of A Victory returning to try and follow up 2014’s success, but it looks a tougher task this time around carrying top weight of 11st 12lb, a full 15lb more than any other horse in the race. While the Nicky Henderson inmate has the best form in the race, including a close second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in his last start in April, and should run well, he could well find it difficult to give so much weight to some unexposed competition, especially considering he seems to enjoy good ground and it could well be getting towards soft come post time.
Jolly’s Cracked It looked a very promising hurdler early last season for Harry Fry’s stable, but seemed to lose his way towards the end of the campaign, albeit in the face of some competitive races. His second to L’Ami Serge in the Tolworth Hurdle and staying-on fifth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury look fairly solid bits of form, while the Cheltenham Festival’s two and a half mile Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle stretched his stamina too much after going well for much of the race, so a return to Ascot’s two miles will suit. If the six-year-old can return to his promising early novice hurdle form, he could go well at a track he has a 2-2 record at.
Unanimite was highly regarded as a juvenile hurdler early on last season for the Pipe team, finishing a six-length eighth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival, but his form tailed off as the season went on and it may be the case that he is better fresh. I expect that he’ll outrun his odds of 12/1, but there could end up being a few too good.
I think this has shaped up to be a good race to take a chance on the in-form John Ferguson’s unexposed NABUCCO, who may have escaped with a lenient assessment from the handicapper after winning on the bridle in a novices’ hurdle at Huntingdon. It might have been a fairly poor race, but the way the once 109-rated flat performer cruised through the race under a confident ride oozed quality. On his first start over hurdles, Nabucco was a seven length second to Cardinal Palace, who went on to be short-headed in the Grade 2 Persian War hurdle at Chepstow, so a mark of 132 could underestimate the Dansili gelding’s potential. Any deterioration in the ground shouldn’t inconvenience him and a good run is expected.
Advice
NABUCCO – 1pt win @ 10/3 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor, SkyBet)
3.05 Wetherby – Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)
A superb renewal of the Charlie Hall Chase with seven high-class chasers contesting, including Philip Hobbs’ winner from 12 months ago, Menorah, who faces a tougher task to take the spoils this time around. The 10-year-old has an excellent record outside of Grade 1 company in the last couple of years, winning all three starts, but even though this is a Grade 2 in name, the opposition is worthy of a Grade 1 and may be just too hot for the veteran of the race given that he runs off 11st 10lb and has to give 10lb to some very classy rivals.
One such rival and favourite at the time of writing, Cue Card, makes his first start since finishing a well-beaten fourth to Don Cossack in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April after well-documented issues with a stress-fracture and a persistent wind problem. He hasn’t reached the heights of his seven-year-old campaign, when winning the Ryanair Chase and the Betfair Chase, since and it’s tough to imagine him instantly returning to that level. I think he might just need the run, but trainer Colin Tizzard is hopeful about his charge’s chance and it wouldn’t surprise at all to see a performance better than last season’s offerings. However, 7/2 (Bet365) isn’t a price I’d want to take about one with so many doubts.
Holywell is undoubtedly better in the spring than at this time of year, and has always needed a couple of runs to get into top form, failing to win a race before Christmas since 2011. His best form would give him a decent chance off 11st 6lb, but this is likely to be a stepping stone to the big chases of 2016.
Sam Winner carries the maximum weight, and has a good record after a break, but it’s questionable whether he will have the class to challenge the best in this race. Sean Bowen takes the ride for Paul Nicholls as Sam Twiston-Davies is at Down Royal to ride Ptit Zig, a pointer in itself.
Grand National hero Many Clouds is another horse who is making his seasonal reappearance, but while it’s clear he is a tough, classy chaser, it would be some effort to win a race such as this first time out even though his record when fresh is excellent. I expect the eight-year-old to run a perfectly decent race and maybe even plug on for a place, but the fact he carries 10lb more than Dynaste, Ballynagour and Cue Card dampens enthusiasm for what would be a hugely popular win for Oliver Sherwood’s stable star.
The only horse in the field with something approaching a ‘prep run’ is David Pipe’s DYNASTE, who finished a staying-on ninth in the Prix Carmarthen, a Grade 3 Hurdle at Auteuil three weeks ago. After beginning his 2014/15 campaign in the Betfair Chase, it seems a significant change of strategy from the Pipe yard, making sure that the striking grey is a little more race-fit than he has been for his early-season targets in the past. It looks a hint worth taking for a horse that has performed well at Grade 1 level over the past two years, especially given that he is so well treated at the weights here, escaping a penalty and running off 10lb lower than many of his rivals. An effort similar to his good second to Silviniaco Conti in the 2014 King George VI Chase would give the gelding a huge chance and I think he’s the best bet here. Conor O’Farrell takes the ride due to Tom Scudamore’s injury, but I don’t think that is a major worry.
Interestingly, Pipe has two horses in the race, and Ballynagour joins his stablemate in running off 11st. The nine-year-old improved hand over fist last season, pushing Silviniaco Conti all the way in the Betfred Bowl Chase at Aintree and looked to be going well when falling four out in the Punchestown Gold Cup. However, his record first time out in the last two seasons is uninspiring to say the least – PU PU. The gelding could be an improving chaser to follow this season and has a real chance on his best form, but could just need the run here under Noel Fehily.
Advice
DYNASTE – 2pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet, Betfred, Stan James)
3.25 Ascot – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase.
Perennially one of the top staying handicap chases on the calendar and the last two year’s winners are in the field as Houblon Des Obeaux and What A Warrior take their chance once again. LE REVE skipped this contest last year in favour of the Silver Cup over course and distance in December and ran with great credit to finish a close-up third behind the well-treated The Young Master. From that moment forward, the seven-year-old went from strength to strength, landing a valuable handicap at Sandown in January before registering two further career-bests when second in the Betbright Chase and third in the bet365 Gold Cup. Lucy Wadham’s charge has been successful on his seasonal debut for each of the last two years so must have a leading chance in this afternoon’s contest.
Pendra has proven frustrating to follow over fences but he does remain relatively unexposed in that sphere so can be granted another chance. He was lightly-raced last campaign and the plan almost came to fruition as he was well-fancied at the Cheltenham Festival where he finished fifth, only losing two places on the run-in. Connections have always believed him to be a stayer and even threw him in at the deep end as a novice when having a crack at the Irish National. With Charlie Longsdon’s string in such imperious form, it would be folly to ignore him and, although his recent form figures don’t suggest a win is necessarily on the cards, he is just the type to prove everyone wrong.
Further behind him at Cheltenham was Ned Stark who was sent off the well-backed 6/1 favourite but could only manage to finish a well-beaten eighth in the end. However, that was an admirable effort given he was still a novice and it was by far the biggest field he had encountered over fences. He remains one of the top handicap chasing prospects for this season and, with few miles on the clock, could be a step ahead of the assessor at this stage of the season.
Bettrends Advice
LE REVE – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (SkyBet)
4.00 Ayr – Tennent´s Cup Handicap Hurdle.
Our final race of the day sees a familiar name in the shape of GLINGERBURN who won his first four starts over hurdles last season including a Grade 2 at Kelso in February in which he got the better of Bristol De Mai and Intense Tango. He failed to justify favouritism when attempting to double up at Aintree in April but he nevertheless had a smart novice campaign. He didn’t travel as well as normal on his latest outing and his rider suggested that it may have been one dance too far for him at the end of a long season. This is obviously a handicap so he has to concede weight all around but he was bordering on Grade 1 class at the end of last term and off a mark of 149, he looks hard to oppose on his return to action.
His main danger looks likely to be Brian Ellison’s Forest Bihan who was purchased following a nine lengths success in France last November. His trainer is reported to be very keen on this individual and whilst we have yet to see him on a racecourse in England, the 17lb he receives from the market leader is likely to bring the pair very close together. He obviously needs to step forward on what he has done so far but I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to give the favourite a bit of a fright.
Of the rest, this time of year looks likely to be the time to catch Lightening Rod who was second on his return to action last season before winning twice at Wetherby, the last of which came off a 2lb lower mark than he races off here. He lost his form somewhat after that but Harry Bannister gets a good tune out of him and I could see the ten-year-old bouncing back and running well on his first start since April.
Advice
GLINGERBURN – 1pt win @ 11/4 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
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