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4.05 Keeneland – 14 Hands Winery Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (Dirt)
The first of nine races on Saturday evening is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and it was won last year by 66/1 shot Take Charge Brandi. This year’s renewal looks likely to centre around the two unbeaten fillies in the lineup, Songbird and Rachel’s Valentina.
The first named is three from three and was last seen landing a second Grade 1 in the Chandelier Stakes at Santa Anita in September. Having been sent off the 1/5F she didn’t disappoint her supporters, stretching clear inside the final four furlongs to win by four and a half lengths at the line. She looks one of the most exciting juveniles in the US at the moment and looks likely to be ridden prominently by Mike Smith here. He could have some problems getting over from his wide draw in stall 10 to lead but he looks to be riding a very good filly and it is hard to see to see her being out of the frame.
Her main rival looks to be the Todd Pletcher-trained RACHEL’S VALENTINA who is the first foal of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra to reach the racecourse. She has won her first two starts including a Grade 1 over seven furlongs last time where she stayed on strongly in the closing stages suggesting that the step up to the extended mile should be in her favour. What might also work in her favour is that she doesn’t have to lead so if a few take each other on for the lead, she could be the one to benefit. On bare form she needs to step up to tackle Songbird but at around 4/1 I think she is the one to go with.
Of the rest, with the weather having been unkind to the area in the last week, it might be worth having a look at Nickname who won when it was sloppy at Belmont last time. She was well beaten by Rachel’s Valentina on her debut in August but looks to have improved since and could offer some each-way value at around the 8/1 mark.
Advice
RACHEL’S VALENTINA – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Coral, BetVictor, SkyBet)
4.45 Keeneland – Twinspires Breeders´ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (Turf)
Having been narrowly denied in this race twelve months ago with No Nay Never, Wesley Ward and Frankie Dettori team up again this year with the five-year-old Undrafted who won the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June. He has only been seen once since then when he finished second to Tourist over a mile at the beginning of September. However it is something of a concern that he doesn’t have as strong a record at home as you would expect and that would lead me to think that it might be worth taking him on at around the 3/1 mark.
In terms of dangers there are a number of interesting runners including last year’s winner Bobby’s Kitten who was dropped back to sprinting to good effect that day. Chad Brown’s colt has been restricted to just two runs since then and was keen early on over a mile at Keeneland at the beginning of the month. He doesn’t come into this year’s race in as good a form as last year but the return to sprinting should see him to good effect and with him likely to be held up, he could run into a place.
Thomas Albertrani’s Ready For Rye also deserves a mention having won his last three starts albeit at a lower level to what he is racing at here. He beat another of today’s rivals The Great War at Saratoga in August before following up in fine style at Belmont next time. That latest performance came in muddy conditions on the turf so he looks worth a place on the shortlist considering the rain they have had.
However, I am going to go with Kathleen O’Connell’s LADY SHIPMAN who has never finished outside of the first three in eleven starts. She was second to Ageless over course and distance in September but was only collared close home and since then she has reportedly thrived on her work. Prior to that she had only been beaten once in turf sprints and with her conqueror not contesting this race, she looks to have strong claims. She receives a handy weight allowance as a filly and at around 6/1; she looks the one to be with.
Advice
LADY SHIPMAN – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports)
5.25 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt]
The filly and mare sprint looks an open contest with a number of the runners arriving here in top form including La Verdad who is five from five this season. The five-year-old has yet to win at Grade 1 level or over seven furlongs but she sat behind the leaders last time which suggests that the latter may not be too much of an issue. This is likely to be her last run before heading to the breeding shed and she looks to have a strong chance of extending her winning sequence.
Kiaran McLaughlin has been very complimentary about his Cavorting in the lead up to the race and he has every reason to be bullish as the filly has won her last three starts. She landed her sole Grade 1 victory over seven furlongs at Saratoga in August and has since warmed up for this with a ready success in a Grade 2 at Saratoga. She likes to come from behind so her wide draw shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience and with the pace likely to be frantic early on, she looks one of the more likely fillies to benefit from it.
However, it is hard to ignore Wesley Ward’s JUDY THE BEAUTY who finished second in this race in 2013 before going one better twelve months ago. She hasn’t managed to get her head in front this term but it looks as though her entire campaign has been geared towards this race and as we know her trainer Wesley Ward is more than capable of executing such a plan. She has won here three times including a Grade 1 over course and distance and with Frankie Dettori onboard, I find it hard to see her out of the frame.
Advice
JUDY THE BEAUTY – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)
6.10 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (Turf)
Whilst in recent years the home challenge has been a little stronger in this race, history tells us that if a top-class European filly is sent over here then a lot of the time she is too good for her opposition. This year, David Wachman sends over LEGATISSIMO who won the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in May and has also won her last two starts in the Nassau Stakes and the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. It is also worth noting that she has been beaten a short-head in two more Group 1s so there is no doubt that she is a top-class performer. Her latest win was arguably her most impressive and given how she travels and quickens, I see no reason why she won’t be suited to this style of racing. She is a short-priced favourite at the time of writing but I can’t see any reason to oppose her and I firmly believe that she is the one to beat.
Her main danger could also come from Europe in the shape of Andre Fabre’s Miss France who has been restricted to just two runs this season. She won the 1000 Guineas in 2014 before being narrowly beaten in the Prix Rothschild and the Sun Chariot Stakes at the end of last season. She arrives here with less miles on the clock than most of her rivals and she could just be a little bit fresher at the end of a long campaign for some of them. However, she will have to turn in a career best to turn Legatissimo over and I think she could find it tough.
Of the home challenge, last year’s runner-up Stephanie’s Kitten deserves a mention having won well at Belmont on her latest outing. She is trained by Chad Brown who has won two of the last three renewals of this race. Also Photo Call who represents the Graham Motion stable and has looked a filly firmly on the up on her last two starts, especially when winning at Santa Anita last time.
Advice
LEGATISSIMO – 2pts win @ 5/4 (SkyBet)
6.50 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt)
The favourite with many for this race is the Jorge Navarro-trained Private Zone who has won four of his six starts this season. The latest of those victories came at Saratoga in August when he was allowed to dominate at the head of affairs before stretching clear in the closing stages to win by three and three-quarter lengths. That was over seven furlongs and whilst he has more than enough pace to drop back to six, my concern would be that he won’t be able to get a free run on the lead and he may have to go half a stride faster than is ideal. He will also have to overcome a wide draw in stall 13 and with all of that in mind I am happy to take him on.
His nearest rival in the betting is RUNHAPPY and whilst the three-year-old has yet to hit the heights of his rival, I think he is fast on the upgrade. The pair actually ran over the same course and distance at Saratoga in August in separate races and it is worth noting that Runhappy’s time was faster than his rivals. He has run only once since then as he gained some valuable course experience at Keeneland when winning the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes in sloppy conditions. He is drawn towards the inside in stall 5 and unlike his rival, he is comfortable coming from off the pace which gives his jockey more options. I think he is heading the right way and on the back of his course and distance win, I feel he is the one to beat.
Of the rest, Wild Dude looks likely to run well having won two of his last three starts including when getting the better of another of today’s rivals Kobe’s Back at Santa Anita last time. He tends to sit off the pace and whilst I’m not sure he has the ability of the first two I mentioned, the race is likely to be run to suit him and he could run into a place.
Advice
RUNHAPPY – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Boylesports)
7.30 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (Turf)
This looks one of the more open contests of the evening and I’m sure when the connections of Time Test decided to send him to the Breeders’ Cup they would have been hoping for fast ground and a good draw and sadly it appears they have neither. The rain that has fallen is bound to inconvenience this colt who was so impressive when winning on fast ground at Ascot in June. The draw in 12 also means that he will have to either be ridden for luck or use too much petrol getting to the front, so I am happy to rule him out.
Inside him in stall 11 is last year’s surprise winner Karakontie who having had only two starts this term looks to have been aimed at a return to this race. He probably needed the run on his return to action in August but turned in a much better effort in the Prix du Moulin next time when third behind Ervedya. He should be able to handle the ground having won the French 2000 Guineas on good to soft as a three-year-old and whilst he has a wide draw, he could run better than his odds of 12/1 suggest.
Of the two Andre Fabre runners, I prefer the filly Esoterique who in her last four runs has been narrowly beaten by two top-class performers in the shape of Solow and Muhaarar before landing two Group 1 successes of her own. She seems to be thriving at present and in terms of ground and distance she looks quite versatile which suggests to me that she should be able to adapt to the way that they race in America. For me she brings the best form into the race but I just wonder whether this may be one run too far for her at the end of a long season.
Instead I am going to take a chance on IMPASSABLE who has been progressing nicely this term and overcame an absence to win the Prix Daniel Wildenstein at the beginning of the month. She was ridden confidently that day before quickening up smartly in the closing stages to get the better of Andre Fabre’s Miss France. She hasn’t had a lot of racing but looks an exciting filly and it is interesting that her connections have decided to send her here. She should handle whatever ground comes up at Keeneland and in an open contest I think backing her at 8/1 looks the best option.
I would also like to mention one of the home contingent who I think is way overpriced and that is Grand Arch. He holds course and distance winning form having got the better of Arlington Millon winner The Pizza Man at the beginning of the month and he also had Dutch Connection behind him that day. The ground had a bit of give in it that day and I think at 25/1 he looks worth a small each-way bet as well.
Advice
IMPASSABLE – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Boylesports)
Grand Arch – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor, SkyBet)
8.10 Keeneland – Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (Dirt)
There are a number of colts who come into this year’s juvenile with strong form to their name including Doug O’Neill’s Nyquist. The Uncle Mo colt is currently four from four in his career to date and was last seen when winning the Grade 1 Frontrunner Stakes at Santa Anita in September. This was his second victory at the top level and he was pushed out to score by three-quarters of a length at the line. The one thing I would mention is that his last three starts have seen him beat the same horse Swipe and the winning margins have been getting smaller as the season has gone on. He looks a very smart performer and looks likely to be in the shake-up but some of the others may hold better form.
One such horse could be Greenpointcrusader who seemed to appreciate the step up to a mile for the first time when winning the Champagne Stakes at Belmont at the beginning of the month. What I should also mention is that the conditions were sloppy on that occasion which bodes well should the conditions turn out to be similar on Saturday evening. He was ridden off the pace that day and stayed on strongly before stretching clear under Joe Bravo to win by four and a half lengths at the line.
However the one I am going to side with is BRODY’S CAUSE who has course and distance winning form to his name courtesy of his victory in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last time. He was ridden off the pace to good effect on that occasion and with the fractions likely to be quick early on here, the race could set up nicely for him. That too was in the mud which should stand him in good stead if the rain continues to fall. In truth it is hard to split the main contenders but I give more weight to the course and distance form and so Dale Romans’ colt gets the nod.
Advice
BRODY’S CAUSE – 1pt win @ 5/1 (BetVictor)
8.50 Keeneland – Longines Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (Turf)
We get to the main turf event on the evening and this race looks likely to centre around the Arc winner Golden Horn who aside from his narrow reverse in the Juddmonte International earlier in the season would be unbeaten in eight starts. I was a little sceptical that he was coming to the end of a long season on that occasion but he turned in a career best effort on the day and it is very sporting of his connections to send him over here. He was been drawn on the inside in stall1 which shouldn’t be too much of a problem as long as he can break quickly. My bigger concern would be the soft ground as his two narrowest successes have come with cut in the ground this year. In truth I think he is the best horse in the race but with a couple of concerns in the back of my mind I don’t think backing him at 8/13 would be sensible.
Instead it might be best to side with FOUND who hasn’t been too far behind Golden Horn on a couple of occasions and has arguably shown her best form when the ground has been soft. She ran well in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last time under a waiting ride and as she is drawn a little wider in nine, she should be able to settle towards the rear and stay clear of any trouble. Another important factor is that Found will be running on Lasix for the first time which has been shown to improve performance in the past. She will need to improve to beat the favourite but she looks more appealing at around the 7/2 mark.
Of the home contingent, there isn’t a lot between Big Blue Kitten and The Pizza Man on their runs in the Arlington Millon where the latter came out on top. The ground was on the soft side that day so a case can be made for both on the ground although they have plenty to find in order to concede weight to the front two in the market.
Advice
FOUND – 1pt win @ 7/2 (William Hill)
9.35 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (Dirt)
The final race on Saturday night is the Breeders’ Cup Classic and it is fair to say that all eyes are on American Pharoah who became the first American Triple Crown for some time this season. He was beaten the last time that we saw him in the Travers Stakes but that was his fifth race since the beginning of May and it was probably a challenge too far for him. He has since been freshened up and prepared for this assignment and all signs are that he is ready to show his best on Saturday evening. However a feature of his wins earlier in the year were that he led from the front and when pressed for the lead last time, he didn’t have the same finishing burst as before and in this race he is not likely to get an easy lead on the front.
With that in mind I am going to go with TONALIST to go well having spoiled one party when landing the Belmont Stakes last season. He looked to be in fine form when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup for a second time at the beginning of the month and if the race turns into a stamina test, there aren’t many better equipped than Christophe Clement’s four-year-old. There is one less horse to worry about with Beholder having withdrawn and having run well in the race last year, I think he go a little closer off a stronger pace.
As for Gleneagles it will be interesting to see how he gets on tackling this new surface for the first time. I don’t think the 1m2f will be any problem for him but it is interesting that the connections of the American runners are not too keen to right him off. It would be quite something were he to win but I think in all likelihood he is likely to fall short against these proven dirt performers.
Advice
TONALIST – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, Coral)
The first of nine races on Saturday evening is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and it was won last year by 66/1 shot Take Charge Brandi. This year’s renewal looks likely to centre around the two unbeaten fillies in the lineup, Songbird and Rachel’s Valentina.
The first named is three from three and was last seen landing a second Grade 1 in the Chandelier Stakes at Santa Anita in September. Having been sent off the 1/5F she didn’t disappoint her supporters, stretching clear inside the final four furlongs to win by four and a half lengths at the line. She looks one of the most exciting juveniles in the US at the moment and looks likely to be ridden prominently by Mike Smith here. He could have some problems getting over from his wide draw in stall 10 to lead but he looks to be riding a very good filly and it is hard to see to see her being out of the frame.
Her main rival looks to be the Todd Pletcher-trained RACHEL’S VALENTINA who is the first foal of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra to reach the racecourse. She has won her first two starts including a Grade 1 over seven furlongs last time where she stayed on strongly in the closing stages suggesting that the step up to the extended mile should be in her favour. What might also work in her favour is that she doesn’t have to lead so if a few take each other on for the lead, she could be the one to benefit. On bare form she needs to step up to tackle Songbird but at around 4/1 I think she is the one to go with.
Of the rest, with the weather having been unkind to the area in the last week, it might be worth having a look at Nickname who won when it was sloppy at Belmont last time. She was well beaten by Rachel’s Valentina on her debut in August but looks to have improved since and could offer some each-way value at around the 8/1 mark.
Advice
RACHEL’S VALENTINA – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Coral, BetVictor, SkyBet)
4.45 Keeneland – Twinspires Breeders´ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (Turf)
Having been narrowly denied in this race twelve months ago with No Nay Never, Wesley Ward and Frankie Dettori team up again this year with the five-year-old Undrafted who won the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June. He has only been seen once since then when he finished second to Tourist over a mile at the beginning of September. However it is something of a concern that he doesn’t have as strong a record at home as you would expect and that would lead me to think that it might be worth taking him on at around the 3/1 mark.
In terms of dangers there are a number of interesting runners including last year’s winner Bobby’s Kitten who was dropped back to sprinting to good effect that day. Chad Brown’s colt has been restricted to just two runs since then and was keen early on over a mile at Keeneland at the beginning of the month. He doesn’t come into this year’s race in as good a form as last year but the return to sprinting should see him to good effect and with him likely to be held up, he could run into a place.
Thomas Albertrani’s Ready For Rye also deserves a mention having won his last three starts albeit at a lower level to what he is racing at here. He beat another of today’s rivals The Great War at Saratoga in August before following up in fine style at Belmont next time. That latest performance came in muddy conditions on the turf so he looks worth a place on the shortlist considering the rain they have had.
However, I am going to go with Kathleen O’Connell’s LADY SHIPMAN who has never finished outside of the first three in eleven starts. She was second to Ageless over course and distance in September but was only collared close home and since then she has reportedly thrived on her work. Prior to that she had only been beaten once in turf sprints and with her conqueror not contesting this race, she looks to have strong claims. She receives a handy weight allowance as a filly and at around 6/1; she looks the one to be with.
Advice
LADY SHIPMAN – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports)
5.25 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt]
The filly and mare sprint looks an open contest with a number of the runners arriving here in top form including La Verdad who is five from five this season. The five-year-old has yet to win at Grade 1 level or over seven furlongs but she sat behind the leaders last time which suggests that the latter may not be too much of an issue. This is likely to be her last run before heading to the breeding shed and she looks to have a strong chance of extending her winning sequence.
Kiaran McLaughlin has been very complimentary about his Cavorting in the lead up to the race and he has every reason to be bullish as the filly has won her last three starts. She landed her sole Grade 1 victory over seven furlongs at Saratoga in August and has since warmed up for this with a ready success in a Grade 2 at Saratoga. She likes to come from behind so her wide draw shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience and with the pace likely to be frantic early on, she looks one of the more likely fillies to benefit from it.
However, it is hard to ignore Wesley Ward’s JUDY THE BEAUTY who finished second in this race in 2013 before going one better twelve months ago. She hasn’t managed to get her head in front this term but it looks as though her entire campaign has been geared towards this race and as we know her trainer Wesley Ward is more than capable of executing such a plan. She has won here three times including a Grade 1 over course and distance and with Frankie Dettori onboard, I find it hard to see her out of the frame.
Advice
JUDY THE BEAUTY – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)
6.10 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (Turf)
Whilst in recent years the home challenge has been a little stronger in this race, history tells us that if a top-class European filly is sent over here then a lot of the time she is too good for her opposition. This year, David Wachman sends over LEGATISSIMO who won the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in May and has also won her last two starts in the Nassau Stakes and the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. It is also worth noting that she has been beaten a short-head in two more Group 1s so there is no doubt that she is a top-class performer. Her latest win was arguably her most impressive and given how she travels and quickens, I see no reason why she won’t be suited to this style of racing. She is a short-priced favourite at the time of writing but I can’t see any reason to oppose her and I firmly believe that she is the one to beat.
Her main danger could also come from Europe in the shape of Andre Fabre’s Miss France who has been restricted to just two runs this season. She won the 1000 Guineas in 2014 before being narrowly beaten in the Prix Rothschild and the Sun Chariot Stakes at the end of last season. She arrives here with less miles on the clock than most of her rivals and she could just be a little bit fresher at the end of a long campaign for some of them. However, she will have to turn in a career best to turn Legatissimo over and I think she could find it tough.
Of the home challenge, last year’s runner-up Stephanie’s Kitten deserves a mention having won well at Belmont on her latest outing. She is trained by Chad Brown who has won two of the last three renewals of this race. Also Photo Call who represents the Graham Motion stable and has looked a filly firmly on the up on her last two starts, especially when winning at Santa Anita last time.
Advice
LEGATISSIMO – 2pts win @ 5/4 (SkyBet)
6.50 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt)
The favourite with many for this race is the Jorge Navarro-trained Private Zone who has won four of his six starts this season. The latest of those victories came at Saratoga in August when he was allowed to dominate at the head of affairs before stretching clear in the closing stages to win by three and three-quarter lengths. That was over seven furlongs and whilst he has more than enough pace to drop back to six, my concern would be that he won’t be able to get a free run on the lead and he may have to go half a stride faster than is ideal. He will also have to overcome a wide draw in stall 13 and with all of that in mind I am happy to take him on.
His nearest rival in the betting is RUNHAPPY and whilst the three-year-old has yet to hit the heights of his rival, I think he is fast on the upgrade. The pair actually ran over the same course and distance at Saratoga in August in separate races and it is worth noting that Runhappy’s time was faster than his rivals. He has run only once since then as he gained some valuable course experience at Keeneland when winning the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes in sloppy conditions. He is drawn towards the inside in stall 5 and unlike his rival, he is comfortable coming from off the pace which gives his jockey more options. I think he is heading the right way and on the back of his course and distance win, I feel he is the one to beat.
Of the rest, Wild Dude looks likely to run well having won two of his last three starts including when getting the better of another of today’s rivals Kobe’s Back at Santa Anita last time. He tends to sit off the pace and whilst I’m not sure he has the ability of the first two I mentioned, the race is likely to be run to suit him and he could run into a place.
Advice
RUNHAPPY – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Boylesports)
7.30 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (Turf)
This looks one of the more open contests of the evening and I’m sure when the connections of Time Test decided to send him to the Breeders’ Cup they would have been hoping for fast ground and a good draw and sadly it appears they have neither. The rain that has fallen is bound to inconvenience this colt who was so impressive when winning on fast ground at Ascot in June. The draw in 12 also means that he will have to either be ridden for luck or use too much petrol getting to the front, so I am happy to rule him out.
Inside him in stall 11 is last year’s surprise winner Karakontie who having had only two starts this term looks to have been aimed at a return to this race. He probably needed the run on his return to action in August but turned in a much better effort in the Prix du Moulin next time when third behind Ervedya. He should be able to handle the ground having won the French 2000 Guineas on good to soft as a three-year-old and whilst he has a wide draw, he could run better than his odds of 12/1 suggest.
Of the two Andre Fabre runners, I prefer the filly Esoterique who in her last four runs has been narrowly beaten by two top-class performers in the shape of Solow and Muhaarar before landing two Group 1 successes of her own. She seems to be thriving at present and in terms of ground and distance she looks quite versatile which suggests to me that she should be able to adapt to the way that they race in America. For me she brings the best form into the race but I just wonder whether this may be one run too far for her at the end of a long season.
Instead I am going to take a chance on IMPASSABLE who has been progressing nicely this term and overcame an absence to win the Prix Daniel Wildenstein at the beginning of the month. She was ridden confidently that day before quickening up smartly in the closing stages to get the better of Andre Fabre’s Miss France. She hasn’t had a lot of racing but looks an exciting filly and it is interesting that her connections have decided to send her here. She should handle whatever ground comes up at Keeneland and in an open contest I think backing her at 8/1 looks the best option.
I would also like to mention one of the home contingent who I think is way overpriced and that is Grand Arch. He holds course and distance winning form having got the better of Arlington Millon winner The Pizza Man at the beginning of the month and he also had Dutch Connection behind him that day. The ground had a bit of give in it that day and I think at 25/1 he looks worth a small each-way bet as well.
Advice
IMPASSABLE – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Boylesports)
Grand Arch – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor, SkyBet)
8.10 Keeneland – Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (Dirt)
There are a number of colts who come into this year’s juvenile with strong form to their name including Doug O’Neill’s Nyquist. The Uncle Mo colt is currently four from four in his career to date and was last seen when winning the Grade 1 Frontrunner Stakes at Santa Anita in September. This was his second victory at the top level and he was pushed out to score by three-quarters of a length at the line. The one thing I would mention is that his last three starts have seen him beat the same horse Swipe and the winning margins have been getting smaller as the season has gone on. He looks a very smart performer and looks likely to be in the shake-up but some of the others may hold better form.
One such horse could be Greenpointcrusader who seemed to appreciate the step up to a mile for the first time when winning the Champagne Stakes at Belmont at the beginning of the month. What I should also mention is that the conditions were sloppy on that occasion which bodes well should the conditions turn out to be similar on Saturday evening. He was ridden off the pace that day and stayed on strongly before stretching clear under Joe Bravo to win by four and a half lengths at the line.
However the one I am going to side with is BRODY’S CAUSE who has course and distance winning form to his name courtesy of his victory in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last time. He was ridden off the pace to good effect on that occasion and with the fractions likely to be quick early on here, the race could set up nicely for him. That too was in the mud which should stand him in good stead if the rain continues to fall. In truth it is hard to split the main contenders but I give more weight to the course and distance form and so Dale Romans’ colt gets the nod.
Advice
BRODY’S CAUSE – 1pt win @ 5/1 (BetVictor)
8.50 Keeneland – Longines Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (Turf)
We get to the main turf event on the evening and this race looks likely to centre around the Arc winner Golden Horn who aside from his narrow reverse in the Juddmonte International earlier in the season would be unbeaten in eight starts. I was a little sceptical that he was coming to the end of a long season on that occasion but he turned in a career best effort on the day and it is very sporting of his connections to send him over here. He was been drawn on the inside in stall1 which shouldn’t be too much of a problem as long as he can break quickly. My bigger concern would be the soft ground as his two narrowest successes have come with cut in the ground this year. In truth I think he is the best horse in the race but with a couple of concerns in the back of my mind I don’t think backing him at 8/13 would be sensible.
Instead it might be best to side with FOUND who hasn’t been too far behind Golden Horn on a couple of occasions and has arguably shown her best form when the ground has been soft. She ran well in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last time under a waiting ride and as she is drawn a little wider in nine, she should be able to settle towards the rear and stay clear of any trouble. Another important factor is that Found will be running on Lasix for the first time which has been shown to improve performance in the past. She will need to improve to beat the favourite but she looks more appealing at around the 7/2 mark.
Of the home contingent, there isn’t a lot between Big Blue Kitten and The Pizza Man on their runs in the Arlington Millon where the latter came out on top. The ground was on the soft side that day so a case can be made for both on the ground although they have plenty to find in order to concede weight to the front two in the market.
Advice
FOUND – 1pt win @ 7/2 (William Hill)
9.35 Keeneland – Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (Dirt)
The final race on Saturday night is the Breeders’ Cup Classic and it is fair to say that all eyes are on American Pharoah who became the first American Triple Crown for some time this season. He was beaten the last time that we saw him in the Travers Stakes but that was his fifth race since the beginning of May and it was probably a challenge too far for him. He has since been freshened up and prepared for this assignment and all signs are that he is ready to show his best on Saturday evening. However a feature of his wins earlier in the year were that he led from the front and when pressed for the lead last time, he didn’t have the same finishing burst as before and in this race he is not likely to get an easy lead on the front.
With that in mind I am going to go with TONALIST to go well having spoiled one party when landing the Belmont Stakes last season. He looked to be in fine form when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup for a second time at the beginning of the month and if the race turns into a stamina test, there aren’t many better equipped than Christophe Clement’s four-year-old. There is one less horse to worry about with Beholder having withdrawn and having run well in the race last year, I think he go a little closer off a stronger pace.
As for Gleneagles it will be interesting to see how he gets on tackling this new surface for the first time. I don’t think the 1m2f will be any problem for him but it is interesting that the connections of the American runners are not too keen to right him off. It would be quite something were he to win but I think in all likelihood he is likely to fall short against these proven dirt performers.
Advice
TONALIST – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, Coral)
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