Tweet
saturday 5/9/2015
2.00 Haydock – Betfred.Com Superior Mile (Group 3)
This Group 3 would appear by the betting at least to be a good opportunity for Ivawood to get back to winning ways following a couple of below-par efforts in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Prix Maurice De Gheest in France last time. Frankie Dettori never really looked happy on him on his latest outing and although he was only beaten two and a half lengths at the line, he never really looked like landing a telling blow on the leaders. In the early part of this year, his performances in both the English and Irish versions of the 2,000 Guineas were good but having been such a fast two-year-old, I have a niggling doubt at the back of my mind that his best days are behind him. With that in mind I don’t think I can be taking 5/2 in a race like this for all that if he produces his best, he will be very hard to beat.
Of the older horses in the line-up Balty Boys looks likely to go well for the in-form Brian Ellison team, having finished a narrow second in the International Stakes at Ascot in July. He looked to be running down the winner Heaven’s Guest with every stride that day but just failed to get up and steps back up to a mile here. On official ratings he doesn’t have a lot to find with Ivawood and having won on everything from good to firm to soft, he looks pretty versatile in terms of ground.
However, I slightly prefer the chances of David Nicholls’ SOVEREIGN DEBT who has been a model of consistency this season and bolted up in a Listed race at the Curragh back in June. He was third behind Home Of The Brave and Gordon Lord Byron at the same venue last time over seven furlongs where he they always seemed to be going a shade too quick for him and the return to a mile should be in his favour here. He is likely to be in the shake-up and at the prices, I am happy to side with him.
2.20 Kempton – Totepool London Mile Handicap (Series Final)
The Final of this Mile series looks a competitive one with several of the runners having already proven themselves over this course and distance.
One such performer is Mutawathea who has been something of a flagbearer for trainer Simon Crisford in his first season with a license. The four-year-old has won twice this term and has turned in two fine efforts in defeat on turf on his last two starts. His latest second at Goodwood came over seven furlongs and having made most of the running before being collared late on, a return to a mile should be to his benefit. The fast-improving Tom Marquand takes a valuable 5lb off his back but the biggest hurdle he will need to overcome is the draw, having been given stall 13. He doesn’t need to lead but it can be tricky to get a good position from such a wide draw here and for that reason, there may be better candidates to concentrate on.
James Fanshawe’s Spirit Raiser was fitted with a visor for the first time for her latest assignment here in August and it seemed to do the trick as she ran on strongly in the closing stages to win going away from her rivals. She has gone up 8lb on the back of that effort but is clearly thriving at present and should be able to run well again here. I’m sure her jockey Hayley Turner will be keen to finish the season in style and she gets on well with this filly having won three times on her. She clearly enjoys the surface and can go close on her return to familiar surroundings.
Having said that, I marginally prefer the chances of Henry Candy’s ANYA who got up in the shadow of the post to beat Strong Steps here back in June. She showed a potent turn of foot on the surface that day under top weight and having gone up 7lb on the back of that effort, she has been kept back with this race in mind. She hasn’t had loads of racing in the past twelve months but has continued to improve and on the back of her latest effort, I think she is the one to beat.
2.35 Haydock – Betfred Mobile Old Borough Cup (Handicap)
This 1m6f contest has tended to go the way of an improving performer in recent times and I like the chances of that pattern continuing with one such horse, PRESSURE POINT catching the eye. Keith Dalgleish’s five-year-old has continued to improve this term having started the season on a mark of 70 and races here off a mark of 97. He tends to enjoy racing prominently and from stall 1 he looks well-placed to do so again here, I fancied him to run well at York last time but he was a non-runner although the form was boosted as his conqueror Libran dead-heated for first. It is difficult to know how much more there is to come from him but he never wins by too far so the handicapper hasn’t been overly harsh. This looks a suitable race for him and whilst it is competitive I think he has strong each-way claims in the race.
Of the others, one to note is Pearl Castle who ran well on his first start for the Karl Burke yard at York last time. He seems to like it at York and despite being well beaten by the winner, there was plenty of encouragement to be taken from the run. A pretty good hurdler, he has often looked as though there is a bit more to come on the flat and a mark of 89 looks dangerously low. Paul Hanagan has been booked to ride which is a positive and he will need to overcome a bad draw in stall 16 but it would be no surprise to see him run well.
I should also mention Brian Ellison’s Totalize who looks a little overpriced at 20/1 having never really got into the race in the Northumberland Plate last time. He was poorly drawn that day and was dropped in towards the rear and couldn’t land a blow on those at the head of affairs. However the time before that he was second to stablemate Seamour at Haydock over two miles and that sort of performance would give him a chance here. He comes from stall 12 here which isn’t nearly as bad as he got at Newcastle and he might be worth a small each-way bet.
2.50 Ascot – Fly London Southend Airport Handicap
There haven’t been many horses who have progressed as much as John Best’s Mullionheir this season having started off running in a handicap off 55 in April and he now finds himself racing off 94. I think he won by more than the winning margin suggested last time and he is clearly heading in brilliant form at present. He has snuck in at the bottom of the weights here in what looks an open contest and it is no surprise to see him towards the head of the market.
Another horse on the up has been Chris Wall’s Mr Win who has won his last two races over seven furlongs on Newmarket’s July course. He beat two good rivals on both occasions that day including Farlow last time, who went on to frank the form at Doncaster subsequently. He has only been raised 4lb for that latest success so shouldn’t be handicapped out of it and is likely to play a big part in the outcome once again here.
Brian Meehan’s Windfast did us a good turn earlier this year when winning at Newbury and although he carries top weight here. He seems to enjoy quick ground which looking at the forecast he seems unlikely to get so I prefer the chances of his stablemate FOX TROTTER who got no run last week at Goodwood having been caught in a pocket inside the final couple of furlongs. He seemed to finish full of running and here at Ascot, it looks less likely that he will encounter such problems. He was pretty smart as a two-year-old and looks to have retained plenty of that ability. Jimmy Fortune would be struggling to do 8st 9lb so I don’t think he has necessarily got off him and if he can continue to improve, I think he will go very close at around 12/1.
At a slightly bigger price, I would not be surprised to see the veteran Hawkeyethenoo run well having finished third over course and distance in the Victoria Cup earlier in the season. He also ran here in July over the trip, shaping better than the result suggested and was far from disgraced over 5f last time. He likes it here at Ascot and a return to anything like his best form would give him a chance.
3.10 Haydock – Betfred TV Be Friendly Handicap
As far as sprint handicaps on a Saturday go I don’t think there will be many more open than this one with just about half of the field having a fair chance.
Kickboxer gave the three-year-olds a success twelve months ago and the pick of this year’s crop appears to be Maljaa who has yet to out of the first three in four starts this term. He finally got his head in front last time when fitted with blinkers for the first time and held off the challenge of Chilworth Icon in the closing stages to land the spoils. He has gone up 5lb on the back of that effort but the way he travelled through the race suggested that he was a bit better than the winning margin suggested. That was only his sixth run so there should be more to come but whether he runs into a more streetwise rival we will have to wait and see.
Towards the bottom of the weights is Lexington Place who has already won four times this season including over course and distance back in June. Ruth Carr’s five-year-old likes to be held up and deliver his challenge late and did so to good effect last time to win with just a neck to spare. He has only gone up another 4lb subsequently although the way he races, it is hard to tell how much more there is to come.
David Barron’s FAST TRACK also deserves a mention having finished sixth in the Stewards Cup consolation race the last time that we saw him. He won over six furlongs at Newmarket back in July and was not far away over five furlongs in June when second in the Scottish Sprint Cup. He was the best finisher of those drawn high at Goodwood and his performance needs marking up on the back of that. He races here off the same mark and he gets the narrow nod as the selection.
I would also not be surprised to see Silvanus run well again having just failed to last home over the extended five furlongs at York last time. The ten-year-old is in the form of his life and is of interest dropping back to the minimum trip here. He too races off the same mark as his latest run here and I fancy him to show up well.
3.25 Ascot – Appletiser Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Sir Michael Stoute’s Dartmouth continued his improvement with a taking display at Goodwood back in August and looked a Group horse in the making with the way that he travelled and then quickened once he got a gap. He has now won four of his last six starts and this could prove to be his toughest assignment yet as the handicapper put him up 13lb following his latest win. It is fair to say that he was probably worth more than the two lengths winning margin suggested last time but that is quite a rise and it won’t make things easy for him. The ground is also likely to be soft which will be new for him and considering that he has won three times on ground described as good to firm, it would have to be a worry. Overall I think he is a very interesting runner here and is likely to be in the shake-up but there may be horses who enjoy the ground and have little weight on their back and he could get turned over here.
The runner with least experience in the race is William Haggas’ Wonder Laish who has not been seen on a racecourse since bolting up in a Lingfield maiden back in May. He made all that day before powering clear and I don’t think the handicapper has been too harsh giving him a rating of 87 to start with. The fact that he has been off for so long suggests that he may have had an issue or two but the Haggas team continue to fire in the winners and I don’t think he will be in need of the run on his return to action.
However at a big price I am going to take a chance on Andrew Balding’s DURETTO who won over course and distance in testing conditions back in July. That was a much weaker race than this one but he stayed on strongly in the soft ground having been ridden patiently and an 8lb rise seems fair enough. I think there is a chance that a few of his rivals may not enjoy the ground and with horses racing on it today as well it could cut up a little. The yard have always thought pretty highly of him and will be hoping that he can continue his progression with another big run here.
3.45 Haydock – Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1)
The feature race on Saturday is the Haydock Sprint Cup won last year by the three-year-old G Force and the Classic generation look to hold many of the cards this time around as well. Tim Easterbys’ Mattmu for one ran a cracker in the Nunthorpe to finish third behind Mecca’s Angel and Acapulco over an inadequate five furlongs and the return to six should be in his favour. I’m not sure how soft the ground is going to be on Saturday but the softer it is the better for this colt who really likes to get his toe in. I think he is up to this sort of class having backed him for the Champions Sprint on Champions Day and I think he can run well here.
William Haggas has always had a high opinion of Adaay and it is easy to forget that he was sent off favourite for the Coventry Stakes during his juvenile campaign. His form tailed off after that but he has done nothing but improve this year, winning at Newbury before winning Group 2 prizes over course and distance here and back at Newbury. He really seems to be starting to fulfil his potential and as long as the ground is not too soft I think he will play a big part in the outcome of the race.
I do however like TWILIGHT SON who remains unbeaten after four starts and comes here having won a competitive three-year-old handicap with a bit in hand at York last time. As he had in lesser company, he travelled really well in the hands of Fergus Sweeney before being asked to extend inside the final furlong and blowing his rivals away. This is obviously a big step up from handicap company to Group 1 level but it is worth remembering that he beat the likes of Magical Memory (who reopposes here) with some ease earlier in the season and he looks to be coming to the boil at just the right time. He does need a big step forward but his trainer has plenty of good sprinters in the yard so he should know where he stands roughly. He fits the profile of many of the recent winners of this race and could offer some each-way value in an open race.
I can’t mention the whole field as I would be here all day but one other who I think is worthy of a mention is Watchable who could be overpriced at around 25/1. He has run on fast ground all summer and although he has won on it, I think ground with a bit of cut in it should suit him better. He finished fourth in the Prix Maurice De Gheest last time behind Muhaarar and was only beaten two lengths and in a similar race I am surprised to see him at such a big price.
5.30 Haydock – Betfred “Be Part Of The Action” Handicap
Our final race this week has been won by the likes of Motivado and Mizzou in recent years so it will be interesting to see who comes out on top this time around.
The reason that I have chosen to cover this race is that I feel the return to 1m6f should bring about a return to form for Brian Meehan’s SENRIMA. The gelding was not suited by the track at Goodwood last time and dropping back in trip, he never really looked like going close and folded tamely in the end. They probably went a stride quicker than he would have liked that day and going back up to 1m6f, the tempo of the race should be more suitable for him. He gets the assistance of the excellent Jack Garritty in the saddle who takes off a valuable 3lb and I can’t believe he is as big as 14/1.
His main danger could be William Haggas’ Dawn Missile who is three from four in his career to date and won in the style of a fast improving performer last time. He really motored home over 1m4f that day and was not stopping at the line, suggesting that the extra two furlongs should be in his favour. The Haggas team remain in good form and he looks the biggest threat to our selection.
2.00 Haydock – Betfred.Com Superior Mile (Group 3)
This Group 3 would appear by the betting at least to be a good opportunity for Ivawood to get back to winning ways following a couple of below-par efforts in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Prix Maurice De Gheest in France last time. Frankie Dettori never really looked happy on him on his latest outing and although he was only beaten two and a half lengths at the line, he never really looked like landing a telling blow on the leaders. In the early part of this year, his performances in both the English and Irish versions of the 2,000 Guineas were good but having been such a fast two-year-old, I have a niggling doubt at the back of my mind that his best days are behind him. With that in mind I don’t think I can be taking 5/2 in a race like this for all that if he produces his best, he will be very hard to beat.
Of the older horses in the line-up Balty Boys looks likely to go well for the in-form Brian Ellison team, having finished a narrow second in the International Stakes at Ascot in July. He looked to be running down the winner Heaven’s Guest with every stride that day but just failed to get up and steps back up to a mile here. On official ratings he doesn’t have a lot to find with Ivawood and having won on everything from good to firm to soft, he looks pretty versatile in terms of ground.
However, I slightly prefer the chances of David Nicholls’ SOVEREIGN DEBT who has been a model of consistency this season and bolted up in a Listed race at the Curragh back in June. He was third behind Home Of The Brave and Gordon Lord Byron at the same venue last time over seven furlongs where he they always seemed to be going a shade too quick for him and the return to a mile should be in his favour here. He is likely to be in the shake-up and at the prices, I am happy to side with him.
2.20 Kempton – Totepool London Mile Handicap (Series Final)
The Final of this Mile series looks a competitive one with several of the runners having already proven themselves over this course and distance.
One such performer is Mutawathea who has been something of a flagbearer for trainer Simon Crisford in his first season with a license. The four-year-old has won twice this term and has turned in two fine efforts in defeat on turf on his last two starts. His latest second at Goodwood came over seven furlongs and having made most of the running before being collared late on, a return to a mile should be to his benefit. The fast-improving Tom Marquand takes a valuable 5lb off his back but the biggest hurdle he will need to overcome is the draw, having been given stall 13. He doesn’t need to lead but it can be tricky to get a good position from such a wide draw here and for that reason, there may be better candidates to concentrate on.
James Fanshawe’s Spirit Raiser was fitted with a visor for the first time for her latest assignment here in August and it seemed to do the trick as she ran on strongly in the closing stages to win going away from her rivals. She has gone up 8lb on the back of that effort but is clearly thriving at present and should be able to run well again here. I’m sure her jockey Hayley Turner will be keen to finish the season in style and she gets on well with this filly having won three times on her. She clearly enjoys the surface and can go close on her return to familiar surroundings.
Having said that, I marginally prefer the chances of Henry Candy’s ANYA who got up in the shadow of the post to beat Strong Steps here back in June. She showed a potent turn of foot on the surface that day under top weight and having gone up 7lb on the back of that effort, she has been kept back with this race in mind. She hasn’t had loads of racing in the past twelve months but has continued to improve and on the back of her latest effort, I think she is the one to beat.
2.35 Haydock – Betfred Mobile Old Borough Cup (Handicap)
This 1m6f contest has tended to go the way of an improving performer in recent times and I like the chances of that pattern continuing with one such horse, PRESSURE POINT catching the eye. Keith Dalgleish’s five-year-old has continued to improve this term having started the season on a mark of 70 and races here off a mark of 97. He tends to enjoy racing prominently and from stall 1 he looks well-placed to do so again here, I fancied him to run well at York last time but he was a non-runner although the form was boosted as his conqueror Libran dead-heated for first. It is difficult to know how much more there is to come from him but he never wins by too far so the handicapper hasn’t been overly harsh. This looks a suitable race for him and whilst it is competitive I think he has strong each-way claims in the race.
Of the others, one to note is Pearl Castle who ran well on his first start for the Karl Burke yard at York last time. He seems to like it at York and despite being well beaten by the winner, there was plenty of encouragement to be taken from the run. A pretty good hurdler, he has often looked as though there is a bit more to come on the flat and a mark of 89 looks dangerously low. Paul Hanagan has been booked to ride which is a positive and he will need to overcome a bad draw in stall 16 but it would be no surprise to see him run well.
I should also mention Brian Ellison’s Totalize who looks a little overpriced at 20/1 having never really got into the race in the Northumberland Plate last time. He was poorly drawn that day and was dropped in towards the rear and couldn’t land a blow on those at the head of affairs. However the time before that he was second to stablemate Seamour at Haydock over two miles and that sort of performance would give him a chance here. He comes from stall 12 here which isn’t nearly as bad as he got at Newcastle and he might be worth a small each-way bet.
2.50 Ascot – Fly London Southend Airport Handicap
There haven’t been many horses who have progressed as much as John Best’s Mullionheir this season having started off running in a handicap off 55 in April and he now finds himself racing off 94. I think he won by more than the winning margin suggested last time and he is clearly heading in brilliant form at present. He has snuck in at the bottom of the weights here in what looks an open contest and it is no surprise to see him towards the head of the market.
Another horse on the up has been Chris Wall’s Mr Win who has won his last two races over seven furlongs on Newmarket’s July course. He beat two good rivals on both occasions that day including Farlow last time, who went on to frank the form at Doncaster subsequently. He has only been raised 4lb for that latest success so shouldn’t be handicapped out of it and is likely to play a big part in the outcome once again here.
Brian Meehan’s Windfast did us a good turn earlier this year when winning at Newbury and although he carries top weight here. He seems to enjoy quick ground which looking at the forecast he seems unlikely to get so I prefer the chances of his stablemate FOX TROTTER who got no run last week at Goodwood having been caught in a pocket inside the final couple of furlongs. He seemed to finish full of running and here at Ascot, it looks less likely that he will encounter such problems. He was pretty smart as a two-year-old and looks to have retained plenty of that ability. Jimmy Fortune would be struggling to do 8st 9lb so I don’t think he has necessarily got off him and if he can continue to improve, I think he will go very close at around 12/1.
At a slightly bigger price, I would not be surprised to see the veteran Hawkeyethenoo run well having finished third over course and distance in the Victoria Cup earlier in the season. He also ran here in July over the trip, shaping better than the result suggested and was far from disgraced over 5f last time. He likes it here at Ascot and a return to anything like his best form would give him a chance.
3.10 Haydock – Betfred TV Be Friendly Handicap
As far as sprint handicaps on a Saturday go I don’t think there will be many more open than this one with just about half of the field having a fair chance.
Kickboxer gave the three-year-olds a success twelve months ago and the pick of this year’s crop appears to be Maljaa who has yet to out of the first three in four starts this term. He finally got his head in front last time when fitted with blinkers for the first time and held off the challenge of Chilworth Icon in the closing stages to land the spoils. He has gone up 5lb on the back of that effort but the way he travelled through the race suggested that he was a bit better than the winning margin suggested. That was only his sixth run so there should be more to come but whether he runs into a more streetwise rival we will have to wait and see.
Towards the bottom of the weights is Lexington Place who has already won four times this season including over course and distance back in June. Ruth Carr’s five-year-old likes to be held up and deliver his challenge late and did so to good effect last time to win with just a neck to spare. He has only gone up another 4lb subsequently although the way he races, it is hard to tell how much more there is to come.
David Barron’s FAST TRACK also deserves a mention having finished sixth in the Stewards Cup consolation race the last time that we saw him. He won over six furlongs at Newmarket back in July and was not far away over five furlongs in June when second in the Scottish Sprint Cup. He was the best finisher of those drawn high at Goodwood and his performance needs marking up on the back of that. He races here off the same mark and he gets the narrow nod as the selection.
I would also not be surprised to see Silvanus run well again having just failed to last home over the extended five furlongs at York last time. The ten-year-old is in the form of his life and is of interest dropping back to the minimum trip here. He too races off the same mark as his latest run here and I fancy him to show up well.
3.25 Ascot – Appletiser Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Sir Michael Stoute’s Dartmouth continued his improvement with a taking display at Goodwood back in August and looked a Group horse in the making with the way that he travelled and then quickened once he got a gap. He has now won four of his last six starts and this could prove to be his toughest assignment yet as the handicapper put him up 13lb following his latest win. It is fair to say that he was probably worth more than the two lengths winning margin suggested last time but that is quite a rise and it won’t make things easy for him. The ground is also likely to be soft which will be new for him and considering that he has won three times on ground described as good to firm, it would have to be a worry. Overall I think he is a very interesting runner here and is likely to be in the shake-up but there may be horses who enjoy the ground and have little weight on their back and he could get turned over here.
The runner with least experience in the race is William Haggas’ Wonder Laish who has not been seen on a racecourse since bolting up in a Lingfield maiden back in May. He made all that day before powering clear and I don’t think the handicapper has been too harsh giving him a rating of 87 to start with. The fact that he has been off for so long suggests that he may have had an issue or two but the Haggas team continue to fire in the winners and I don’t think he will be in need of the run on his return to action.
However at a big price I am going to take a chance on Andrew Balding’s DURETTO who won over course and distance in testing conditions back in July. That was a much weaker race than this one but he stayed on strongly in the soft ground having been ridden patiently and an 8lb rise seems fair enough. I think there is a chance that a few of his rivals may not enjoy the ground and with horses racing on it today as well it could cut up a little. The yard have always thought pretty highly of him and will be hoping that he can continue his progression with another big run here.
3.45 Haydock – Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1)
The feature race on Saturday is the Haydock Sprint Cup won last year by the three-year-old G Force and the Classic generation look to hold many of the cards this time around as well. Tim Easterbys’ Mattmu for one ran a cracker in the Nunthorpe to finish third behind Mecca’s Angel and Acapulco over an inadequate five furlongs and the return to six should be in his favour. I’m not sure how soft the ground is going to be on Saturday but the softer it is the better for this colt who really likes to get his toe in. I think he is up to this sort of class having backed him for the Champions Sprint on Champions Day and I think he can run well here.
William Haggas has always had a high opinion of Adaay and it is easy to forget that he was sent off favourite for the Coventry Stakes during his juvenile campaign. His form tailed off after that but he has done nothing but improve this year, winning at Newbury before winning Group 2 prizes over course and distance here and back at Newbury. He really seems to be starting to fulfil his potential and as long as the ground is not too soft I think he will play a big part in the outcome of the race.
I do however like TWILIGHT SON who remains unbeaten after four starts and comes here having won a competitive three-year-old handicap with a bit in hand at York last time. As he had in lesser company, he travelled really well in the hands of Fergus Sweeney before being asked to extend inside the final furlong and blowing his rivals away. This is obviously a big step up from handicap company to Group 1 level but it is worth remembering that he beat the likes of Magical Memory (who reopposes here) with some ease earlier in the season and he looks to be coming to the boil at just the right time. He does need a big step forward but his trainer has plenty of good sprinters in the yard so he should know where he stands roughly. He fits the profile of many of the recent winners of this race and could offer some each-way value in an open race.
I can’t mention the whole field as I would be here all day but one other who I think is worthy of a mention is Watchable who could be overpriced at around 25/1. He has run on fast ground all summer and although he has won on it, I think ground with a bit of cut in it should suit him better. He finished fourth in the Prix Maurice De Gheest last time behind Muhaarar and was only beaten two lengths and in a similar race I am surprised to see him at such a big price.
5.30 Haydock – Betfred “Be Part Of The Action” Handicap
Our final race this week has been won by the likes of Motivado and Mizzou in recent years so it will be interesting to see who comes out on top this time around.
The reason that I have chosen to cover this race is that I feel the return to 1m6f should bring about a return to form for Brian Meehan’s SENRIMA. The gelding was not suited by the track at Goodwood last time and dropping back in trip, he never really looked like going close and folded tamely in the end. They probably went a stride quicker than he would have liked that day and going back up to 1m6f, the tempo of the race should be more suitable for him. He gets the assistance of the excellent Jack Garritty in the saddle who takes off a valuable 3lb and I can’t believe he is as big as 14/1.
His main danger could be William Haggas’ Dawn Missile who is three from four in his career to date and won in the style of a fast improving performer last time. He really motored home over 1m4f that day and was not stopping at the line, suggesting that the extra two furlongs should be in his favour. The Haggas team remain in good form and he looks the biggest threat to our selection.
Comment