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my thoughts and bets for saturday 8/8/2015

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  • my thoughts and bets for saturday 8/8/2015

    12.55 Ascot- Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap)

    Roger Varian’s Double Up has shot up the handicap this season, winning three times and only found one rival too strong at Goodwood a couple of weeks ago. He beat the rest pretty convincingly despite carrying top weight and you would have to think it won’t be long before he steps into pattern company. He has gone up another 4lb on the back of his latest effort but the compressed nature of this race means he isn’t conceding too much weight to his rivals here. He won here in July and despite running off a career high mark, I see him as the most likely winner here.

    David Elsworth’s JUSTICE DAY has long been campaigned in Listed and Group races and drops back into handicap company having finished seventh in the Group 2 King George at Goodwood last time. He was a little slowly away and found everything happening a bit quickly for him but was only beaten three lengths at the line. He likes it here having won the Listed Rous Stakes over course and distance in October and he has been in pretty good form this season considering the company he has kept. He is drawn against the stands’ rail and I would not be surprised to see him jump and try and make all. I don’t think there is much between him and the favourite but at the prices I think he is worth siding with.

    Of the rest, Gary Moore’s Dutch Masterpiece showed signs of a return to form at Newmarket last time and considering he won off this mark only a couple of years ago, his current rating could be workable. He is far from the easiest to predict but if Pat Smullen can keep him sweet, I would not be surprised to see him hit the frame.


    ADVICE BACK - Justice Day E/WAY



    1.30 Ascot – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap)

    The course and distance form of Hassle in the Brown Jack Handicap suggested that his current handicap rating may not be beyond him. He stayed on well under a patient ride that day but had been off the track since April so perhaps he will come on for the run. He looked to be beaten by two better handicapped horses on the day but this looks a slightly weaker contest and he can’t be dismissed with any certainty.

    Andrew Balding’s Communicator has his first run back for the yard since going jumping with Jonjo O’Neill. That experiment proved fruitless and whilst he is far from the most prolific winner on the level, there are pieces of his old form which suggest he can make his presence felt if he is ready to go. He was third in the Chester Cup in 2014 off a mark of 93 and was also third in the 1m4f race on this card last year off a mark of 94. The trip should be no problem for him and if he can find his form, he shouldn’t be too far away.

    However, David Evans’ WORDINESS was progressing well before just getting too far behind at Goodwood last time out. He likes to be ridden patiently but despite staying on in the closing stages he was never troubling those towards the head of proceedings. He shouldn’t get as far behind in a smaller field and he gets the assistance of top French jockey Vincent Cheminaud in the saddle. Had he not run at Goodwood, I fancy he would be a bit shorter in the market and could offer some each-way value at around the 9/1 mark.

    ADVICE BACK -- Wordiness e/w



    2.05 Ascot – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap)

    Charlie Hills’ Xinbama turned in a career best effort when winning on his seasonal reappearance at Leicester a few weeks ago. He won by more than the half a length winning margin suggested which gives him a chance of defying an 8lb rise in the weights. This looks a better race but this strong traveller was one of the last to come off the bridle which suggests that he should be able to cope with this step up in class. The yard’s horses continue to run well and with Jamie Spencer already familiar with the six-year-old I can see him running well under a big weight.

    David Simcock’s Majeed has been in fine form since coming back from a lengthy absence in March, winning twice on the all-weather before running behind Watersmeet in a competitive race at Newmarket in May. He returned to the all-weather at the beginning of last month but was unable to peg back those more prominently ridden and could finish only third. The form has since been boosted with the runner-up Noble Gift running well at Goodwood last week and although this five-year-old needs to prove he can do it on turf as well, he looks a player.

    However, William Haggas has been in search of blacktype with MY SPIRIT of late and she was far from disgraced when finishing fourth at York last time. She was beaten a long way in the end by some smart fillies but this contest should be a little more straight forward. She won off a mark of 85 last season and runs off 93 here but this extra couple of furlongs could well bring about further improvement and having been flying high of late, in an open race, she could be worth taking a chance on.

    ADVICE BACK --My Spirit E/WAY


    2.20 Haydock – Betfred Goals Galore Handicap

    This race looks a typically competitive Saturday handicap and the place to start is with the Mark Johnston runners of which there are three. Zand was well fancied to show up well on his debut for the yard at Goodwood last time but may not have handled the track as ran a bit awkwardly in the closing stages. Master Of Finance is a consistent performer but continues to creep up the handicap but probably runs better with cut in the ground. The same could be said for Sennockian Star who perhaps found the Goodwood ten furlongs a bit sharp last time and this track should suit him better. He was second in the Wolferton Handicap off a 1lb lower mark and although I don’t necessarily think he is improving, he tends to run his race most of the time and is a useful yardstick to base the race around.

    David Lanigan’s Rembrandt Van Rijn didn’t always look the easiest last year but having been gelded he rattled off a hat-trick of victories including at Sandown last time. He doesn’t tend to win too far so he hasn’t been crucified by the handicapper and having had a short break, it would be no surprise to see him continue his progression.

    A three-year-old has won four of the last seven renewals of this race and the two members of the Classic generation in this year’s field both look to have strong chances. Richard Hannon’s BASATEEN had some good form as a two-year-old and there was plenty to like about his return from an eleven-month absence at York in July. He was settled towards the rear of the field and stayed on well in the closing stages to finish eighth beaten just over five lengths. That was over a mile and this extra couple of furlongs should suit him well and he should also strip a lot fitter for that return to the racecourse. He has only had four starts and stepped up in trip, he looks a major player.

    Festive Fare drops into handicap company having been well beaten in Listed and Group 2 company on his last two starts. Those came over a 1m3f and 1m4f respectively and certainly last time in soft ground, he looked as though his stamina reserves were tested too far. He also has a tendency to race keenly which can cost him in the closing stages of races, although this strongly-run handicap could play into his hands. His connections clearly think quite a bit of him and despite being drawn out wide in stall 12, I fancy him to show up well following this drop in class.

    ADVICE BACK -Basateen WIN


    2.40 Ascot – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap)

    Clive Cox’s Unforgiving Minute landed a hat-trick of successes on the all-weather over the winter and made his first start this term in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last month. The ground was given as an excuse for his poor run that day so I wouldn’t want to see the ground be too fast on Saturday. He was dropped 3lb on the back of that effort which I feel could have been quite generous on the back of just one run. He might just have needed that first run back and with further improvement not ruled out, he could be thereabouts in the closing stages.

    In terms of a pace angle in the race, having run over further than a mile on his last two starts, I would not be surprised to see Pat Smullen grab the bull by the horns from stall 2 aboard Master The World. He won on his penultimate start at Newmarket and prior to that he was third behind the smart Basem at Sandown. This drop back in trip shouldn’t be a problem and conceding at the most 5lb to his rivals, he can’t be ruled out with any certainty.

    One trainer whose reputation continues to soar is David O’Meara, who saddles Earth Drummer who hasn’t been seen since running at Meydan in January. He won a valuable handicap at Wolverhampton on his final start in Britain back in December and races off just a 3lb higher mark here. His fitness has to be taken on trust having been off the track for nearly 200 days but the yard are flying and if pushed for a selection, I would be siding with this five-year-old.

    ADVICE BACK - Earth Drummer WIN



    2.55 Haydock – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3)

    A high-class three-year-old has been turned over in the last two renewals of this race with Telescope and True Story both being beaten but I find it hard to see past this year’s Classic representative INTILAAQ. Apart from his run in the 2,000 Guineas which probably came a bit soon for him, he has looked a high-class colt, most notably when running down Consort in Listed company at Newbury last month. In truth I was a little surprised to see him declared here as he has entries for both the Great Voltigeur and the Juddmonte International in a couple of weeks’ time. Having said that this looks a good opportunity for him to gain a first Group success and he looks the class horse in the race. He did get better the further he went last time so a dawdling pace would not be ideal for him but he has made the running in the past and if there was no gallop I could see Paul Hanagan taking control of the race. Without being rude to the opposition they are largely consistent high-class handicappers and I believe this colt could well be a Group 1 horse before long, so they will struggle to concede 9lb to him here.

    The one to follow him home could be Master Carpenter who won the John Smith’s Cup at York last time under a fine ride from Phillip Makin. He was game that day to hold off his rivals and land the spoils and he won a Group 3 last season in France. I doubt he has the class of the main selection but he is clearly in fine form with himself and could be the one to pick up the pieces if he fails to fire.

    ADVICE BACK - Intilaaq WIN



    3.15 Ascot – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap)

    Andrew Balding’s Havisham was an expensive yearling purchase at 330,000 euros and despite still being a maiden after seven starts, he has been fairly highly-tried on his last few starts. He has run at Ascot on his last three starts including over this course and distance a month ago when he chased home the smart pair of Dartmouth and Space Age. He has looked a little one-paced over 1m4f in the past and probably just didn’t stay over two miles last time so it easy to see why he is dropping back in trip. He is still lightly-raced so there should be more to come and I don’t think it will be long before he gets himself off the mark.

    Mark Johnston’s Polarisation finished just behind Havisham here in July and was last seen finishing fifth at Goodwood last weekend. He was a little unlucky not to finish a little closer having been hampered inside the final furlong, although he was no match for the winner on the day. He stays a bit further than this and should be on the premises once again.
    Another runner who has been a little slow to come to hand is Henry Candy’s Perestroika but having shed her maiden tag at Windsor in June, she recorded a second success at the same venue last month. She was a four-length winner on her latest start and I’m not sure that an 8lb rise is going to be enough to stop her. Her jockey suggested that she was still learning and although she is stepping up in class here, she is progressive and shouldn’t be too far away.

    Overall this looks a tough race to focus on one and if pushed I would have probably have a small each-way bet on HAVISHAM who could just have a bit more progression in him than some of his rivals and at 13/2 if he is placed we haven’t lost anything.

    ADVICE BACK - Havisham E/WAY



    3.35 Newmarket – German-Thoroughbred.Com Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3)

    Having won five of the last six renewals, Godolphin fillies need respecting in this contest and they have a nice one on their hands this year in the shape of Bint Al Reem. She won on debut over course and distance overcoming inexperience to win well at the line by three-quarters of a length. The form has been boosted with the third Notary coming out and winning at Goodwood last week and this filly is clearly open to further improvement. She was slowly away last time and took a while to pick up the bridle but ran on strongly at the line and this looks the next logical step.

    Another impressive winner on debut was Hawksmoor who scooted clear in the closing stages to win by three and a half lengths at Kempton. The form of that race doesn’t look particularly strong but she looked a smart filly and the reports were that her homework had been excellent in the run up to the race. Her jockey Harry Bentley said how professional she was on debut and despite racing towards the rear, she really picked up in the closing stages and could be anything.

    Having said that, they could both have their work cut out with Brian Meehan’s BLUE BAYOU who Brian Meehan described as ‘as good a 2yo filly as I´ve trained’ following her narrow defeat in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes here last month. She was a little slowly away but came with a sustained run once the penny dropped and she was only beaten a nose and a short-head at the line. The runner-up Besharah has since won the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot in impressive fashion and this filly could do the same here. The extra furlong should also suit her and given how well she ran with such little experience last time, she could be tough to beat.

    ADVICE BACK - Blue Bayou WIN



    3.50 Ascot – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap)

    Roger Charlton’s Acolyte is clearly a sprinter on the up having won his last two starts at Kempton and Wolverhampton. He was smartly away last time and having made the running, scooted clear on the run to the line to win by two and a half lengths in convincing fashion. I would expect him to race prominently once again here and despite all of his wins to date having come on a synthetic surface, I still think he can show up well. He does have to contend with another rise in the weights but this will be only his ninth start and there could be more to come, especially given his handler.

    Moonraker won a five furlongs maiden here at Ascot on debut last year with the likes of Mubtaghaa and Indescribable behind him. He raced wide in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and probably tried to take Ivawood on and he paid for it in the closing stages. Having finished runner-up in the Listed Roses Stakes at York, his form tailed off after that and he hasn’t been seen on the racecourse since October. Clearly he has a bit to prove but he was highly thought of by the yard last year and a return to any such form would put him in the mix.

    However, the handicapper may just have given last year’s Norfolk Stakes winner BAITHA ALGA a chance having dropped him 8lb from his career high mark of 108. He failed to show much in the second half of last year but that was on good ground or slower and it might just be that he wants fast ground. The hood and blinkers combination seemed to bring about a degree of improvement last time and a return to this track on quick ground could be just what he needs. If that is the case, the 16/1 currently available with Coral could be on the big side.

    ADVICE BACK - Baitha Alga E/WAY
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