Galway races 2015

[Old Vic]

Landed some place monies today. think Hidden cyclone the each way value tomorrow. deep race.

[Ballybeen]

Well predicted BOF, Gangster as short as 8/15, Bay of Freedom as big as 25/1. Good luck.

[Old Vic]

Ruby


I thought there were only three or four horses in the Galway Plate that were unexposed and it was easy to put a line through a number of them, but I think it’s very hard to rule horses out of the Galway Hurdle.

Of Willie’s five runners, you’d have to think the two-mile trip would be too sharp for Thousand Stars. He looks to be a better horse over further, but the other four have their chances. Aminabad won well last week at Ballinrobe, and got the penalty he needed to get into this race. He’ll love the ground, and should go well.

Max Dynamite’s Northumberland Plate form looks very good, but his jumps form has not been as strong. He needs to jump slicker than he has in the past if he’s to get competitive.

Wicklow Brave was stunning in the Country Hurdle, at the Cheltenham Festival, and his few runs on the flat have been very good. Obviously he didn’t stay in Ascot, but you can’t hold that against him, and he has an outstanding chance.

But I’ve gone for Diakali. I think he probably has the ability to be placed in a Champion Hurdle, which means running to a rating of 163 or 164, and he’s running in today’s race off a mark of 153.

I would have loved it to have started raining about six o’clock yesterday evening. That would suit down to the ground, as he handles soft ground, and plenty of them wouldn’t. But, he won on fast ground at Tipperary, and so we won’t be using that as an excuse.

I know he has top weight, but it’s a limited handicap (11-07 to 10-01), so I won’t be too worried about that either, and he’s in great form. I’m very hopeful of a big run.

Of the others, Thomas Edison has to be respected. When you look at the replay of last year’s race, you see he bolted in. He came off the bend and AP (McCoy) had to take a pull on him. Barry (Geraghty) rides him today, and he definitely has a chance.

Quick Jack scooted home in the GPT (Qualified Riders’ race) here last year, and he, too, has a massive chance, off a low weight. Marchese Marconi also has a life, but there is an unbelievable number of horses with a chance. It’s a race with €300,000 in prize-money, and great to see it has the field to back it up.

Elsewhere on the card, I get the opportunity to ride two horses I wouldn’t otherwise be on, as Gigginstown House’s retained rider, Bryan Cooper, is still sidelined. One of those is As De Ferbet, who runs in the beginners’ chase, over two mile six.

On form he’d have a really good chance, but whether or not he really wants ground as fast as he’ll have to contend with today is the concern. He was placed in a similar race at Punchestown on New Year’s Day, but that was on really testing ground. He made his comeback at Kilbeggan a couple of weeks ago and, while he went on the quicker ground there, I’m not sure it’s exactly what he wants.

He jumped really well at Kilbeggan and should run a good race.

In the Guinness Novice Hurdle, Gangster was very impressive when he won in Roscommon. We think he’s a really nice horse, and our other novices this week won well so we’d be hopeful he could keep that going. I rode him in work earlier in the week and he gave me a nice feel. He’s definitely going the right direction, and should go very close.

[racecaller13]

The Guinness Galway Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth day of the Galway Festival on Thursday 30th July. A Grade A Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles, it is always highly competitive and in recent years it has paid to look for a less exposed type that had won recently over hurdles.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-3-14

5yo: 2-7-42

6yo: 5-10-56

7yo: 3-5-44

8yo: 0-3-25

9yo+: 0-2-15

The last 10 winners were aged 5 to 7



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 7-11-94

Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 3-19-102

Horses carrying 10-7+ have won 7 of the last 10 runnings despite only representing less than half of the total runners.

Top Weight: 66P0028707 (0-1-10)

Horses carrying a penalty (1-2-8) have gained 1 win and 2 places from 8 runners.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 131 or higher: 5-13-93

Horses rated 120 to 130: 5-14-91

Horses rated 119 or less: 0-3-12

The shape of the ratings for this race has changed in recent years, with higher rated horses contesting the race, so the figures over past 10 years have less relevance.

Over past 5 years:

Horses rated 135 or higher: 4-9-51

Horses rated 134 or lower: 1-6-48

Horses rated 135+ have won 4 of last 5 and filled 13 of 20 places in last 5 runnings.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts

6 of 10 winners won last time out (4 flat, 2 over hurdles)

10 of 10 winners posted their career high hurdles RPR on one of last 3 starts

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last hurdles start (8 of last 9 posted RPR of 133+ in one or both of last 2 runs)

10 of 10 winners had had 6 to 15 previous hurdle starts

8 of 10 winners had run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (2 exceptions ran in 10 or 11)

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over hurdles

6 of 10 winners had their previous start on the flat

8 of 10 winners had won a NH race worth 10K+



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Thomas Edison): F029 (0-1-4)

Grimes Hurdle winner (Diakali): 6281 (1-1-4)

Win A Meerkat Toy Hurdle winner (Rae's Creek): 2 (0-1-1)

Kilashee Handicap Hurdle winner (Some Article): 300 (0-1-3)

County Hurdle winner (Wicklow Brave): 8 (0-0-1)

Dolores Purcell Memorial Nov H´dle winner (Rich Coast): 000 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Easyfix Rubber Products Novice Hurdle, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in a 2m Cork novice hurdle the previous October

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in Grimes Hurdle on last hurdles start, finishing 61

2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Daily Mail H'cap at Curragh Guineas meeting, finishing 61

2 of 10 winners ran in Ladies Derby at Curragh, finishing 34



Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners led or tracked leaders

3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division

1 of 10 winners were held up in rear



Trainers

Michael Winters (2-0-3) trained Rebel Fitz & Missunited to win back to back runnings in 2012 & 2013.

Tony Martin (1-2-8) won this with Thomas Edison in 2014.

Noel Meade (1-0-13) won this in 2005 with More Rainbows.

Gordon Elliot (0-6-13) has seen 6 of his 13 runners make the places, including the runner-up in 2012, 2013 & 2014 and also the 3rd in 2011 & 2010.

Willie Mullins (0-4-14) has gained 4 places (including 3rd & 4th in 2013) from his 14 runners since 2005.

Jessica Harrington (0-2-5) & Eddie O’Grady (0-2-7) have each saddled a couple of placed finishers in past 10 runnings.

Thomas Mullins (0-1-6) and Dermot Weld (0-1-11) have each managed 1 placed finisher since 2005.

British based trainers (1-1-19) have gained 1 win & 1 place from their 19 runners.



Price

No very strong trends on prices, however 7 of last 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter while the other 3 were priced between 20/1 & 33/1.

Favourites (2-5-10) have won twice in past 10 years giving a zero level stakes return.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7

- Carrying 10-6+

- Officially rated 135 to 147

- Won 1 of last 2 hurdles starts

- Posted a career high RPR of 133+ in last 3 hurdles starts

- Won or placed on last hurdles start (posting an RPR of 125+)

- Run in past 40 days

- Had prep run on flat last time (or finished in first 3 over hurdles)

- Previously run in 7 to 15 hurdles races (winning 1 to 4)

- Has run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)

- Finished in first 2 in Easyfix Rubber Products Novice Hurdle and/or Grimes Hurdle

- Ran well in a Curragh handicap on the flat in 2015

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Michael Winters, Tony Martin or Gordon Elliot
- See more at: http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/h....CttLg0x4.dpuf

[Lester]

Gordon Elliot (0-6-13) has seen 6 of his 13 runners make the places, including the runner-up in 2012, 2013 & 2014 and also the 3rd in 2011 & 2010.

That is an outstanding stat. Bayan has a tidy claimer on in young Jack Kennedy but passed over in favour of The Game Changer at 16s with 5 places.

[mayo]

Bryan Cooper on the ball yesterday. Sweet on Diakali today

t’s an impossible race to solve. But one horse I like, if he returns to his novice form, is Shanahan’s Turn. He jumps, is running over what is probably his ideal trip. He won twice around Punchestown last autumn, including a Grade 2.

He’s racing off a nice weight (10-10), had a run over an inadequate trip in Killarney, and, although he’s been a bit ‘hit and miss’, he should have a cracking each-way chance.

The other Gigginstown runners today are Fill Your Hands in the opening maiden hurdle and Disputed in the 81-123 handicap hurdle.

It’ll be interesting to see how Fill Your Hands fares against Stuccodor and Thomas Hobson. I rode him in work a couple of weeks ago when he went well. And Tony (Martin) has probably had this race in mind for him.

But he tends to be quite free and his habit of jumping out to the left won’t help him around Galway.

I was very impressed by Diakali when he won the recent Grimes Hurdle in Tipperary. And I rate him the horse to beat in tomorrow’s Galway Hurdle.

I know he has joint top-weight. But he’s a graded horse, with a lot of class, running in a handicap.

He has rock-solid Grade 1 form, in Ireland, England and France. And, although he can be keen, he has run well in big fields in both the ‘Triumph’ and ‘County’ in Cheltenham.

You can make cases for plenty of the others, including Quick Jack, at the bottom of the weights. But nothing has the class of Diakali.

[mayo]

Diakali ran no race. Hidden Cyclone seems destined to be permanently placed.

O'Regan actually took a pull on the bend. Quick Jack was well in.

Dont think Thomas Edison was expected to be in the mix at all. Drifted out to 25s on the machine beforehand. Doubt if he would have got past the winner but looked nailed on for a place. Another day in him somewhere.

[mayo]

Going to be a big handicap in Clondaw Warrior back over hurdles.

[The West]

Piri Wango - 3.20

[mayo]

Piri Wango - 3.20

welcome to the board The West.

Keeping an eye on the Wachman/ JP horse in that.