If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
paint the clouds fav for foxhunters at cheltenham ground soft did not suit won 6 out of 7 hunter chasing ground if drying up further could be perfect for him
Yep, absolutely, my only question is whether 10s is a fair when there are Gold Cup and Aintree Bowl winners at bigger prices, he has everything going for him so 10s may well be fair I'm just not completely convinced at the minute....
Not sure if I've tipped every runner in this thread already but one I am getting keen on is Tony Martins Guess Again.
Will carry 10st 4lb when the weights rise, was having his first run at Cheltenham since last Sumemr and going well before tipping up when in comntention, he goes to the race fresh and loves quick ground.
I saw some 25s was available earlier today and whilst I agree with Mayo getting stuck heavily into anything at this time of the year is rarely a great plan, he is one of the more likely ones and is fresher than the lot.....
The more I look at the race the more I think it will go to one of the classier horses. I'm finding it hard to see anything in the weights below Grand Jesture/ The Package winning this.
Having said that I took 33/1 on Guess Again for the reasons Istabraq gives above.
I must admit I am ignoring anything that ran at Aintree, a ploy that could easily come back to bite me but I would much prefer a fresh horse for a test like this even if Unioniste barely made it past the Melling Road.
I have no clue about this race. Horses over the top or over the hill everywhere.
I agree mayo, I'm not going to be playing in this race because there are too many big field races with too many unknowns that the bookies steer us towards so they can milk punters on a regular basis. I'ts so easy to spend time trying to analyse these races when the better opportunuties are elsewhere, it's great when you have a winner at big odds in a 30 runner field, but it doesn't happen very often, so, as someone who likes to place a bet thinking I have a good chance of winning I'm going to ignore these in future with having just a watching brief. Rather than have a few quid on this I'll stick a few more on Vautour for next years QM before the rest of the world cotton on and the 6/1 disappears. Then I can concentrate on finding a decent bet for the rest of the card tomorrow, with an eye on Punchy next week.
I agree mayo, I'm not going to be playing in this race because there are too many big field races with too many unknowns that the bookies steer us towards so they can milk punters on a regular basis. I'ts so easy to spend time trying to analyse these races when the better opportunuties are elsewhere, it's great when you have a winner at big odds in a 30 runner field, but it doesn't happen very often, so, as someone who likes to place a bet thinking I have a good chance of winning I'm going to ignore these in future with having just a watching brief. Rather than have a few quid on this I'll stick a few more on Vautour for next years QM before the rest of the world cotton on and the 6/1 disappears. Then I can concentrate on finding a decent bet for the rest of the card tomorrow, with an eye on Punchy next week.
You are more disciplined than me.
I have ended up doing the mug patent for 2mrw Sprinter Sacre Bobs Worth and Box Office.
Sprinter Sacre's second to DB is the best form available in the Celebration Chase imo.
Bobs Worth could be going the wrong way round and could also either be finish or getting handicapped for the Hennessy but 10s was too much against this lot.
Box Office because its the law that retiring jocks win on their last ride.
I have ended up doing the mug patent for 2mrw Sprinter Sacre Bobs Worth and Box Office.
Sprinter Sacre's second to DB is the best form available in the Celebration Chase imo.
Bobs Worth could be going the wrong way round and could also either be finish or getting handicapped for the Hennessy but 10s was too much against this lot.
Box Office because its the law that retiring jocks win on their last ride.
I can see what you mean about Sprinter but you know what, I think the stars are aligned in this race for Mr Mole. The last grade one that AP will ever ride in, carrying the colours of his boss and close friend, and prepared specifically for this race, and occasion, by the king of big races on a Saturday, I can't ignore those portents with a horse that's a very backable price, given that the AP runner in the national traded at 7/1 at one point and this one is 7/2, too much in his favour to ignore. I'd certainly rather play in this race than try to find reasons why 20 or so can't win the 365 chase.
Henderson has had 14 chase winners in the last year (and 89 over Hurdles) hard to see him notching the two biggest chases on the last day of the season.
Nicholls has had 67 chase wins and 59 hurdle successes in the same time. They are completely different operators.
The Henderson stat is amazing. I didn't realise his chasers had been running so badly.
I've thrown a few darts today.
2:00 old guard - friends of mine were at Perth this week and were told to back this today by a reliable source.
3:15 Vilbrato Valtat - I'm giving him on more go. A strongly run 2 miles is what he needs and that's exactly what he'll get today. It's easy to pick holes in every runner so I'm taking a punt that VV is better than his last two runs.
4:25 Box Office - I would usually be keen to take on a 4/1 shot in a 20 runner handicap but this is different. You can be sure Jonjo will have this one trained to the minute today.
Decided to have a small interest after all, ew double on the two Ruby Walsh rides, Vics Canvas and Bayan, Ruby doing 10st 5lb suggests VC is in with a shout.
Another portent regarding Mr Mole is that it was on this horse that AP announced his retirement
Henderson has had 14 chase winners in the last year (and 89 over Hurdles) hard to see him notching the two biggest chases on the last day of the season.
Nicholls has had 67 chase wins and 59 hurdle successes in the same time. They are completely different operators.
Unioniste and Mr Mole for me.
Had noticed that hendo was only averaging one a month earlier this year. I think this is him just reverting back to what he does best. He was considered a trainer of hurdles for years and hadn't won a gold cup before Long Run. The difference between big two probably starts at the sales. Nicholls seems to buy and train types that have longer careers.
Decided to have a small interest after all, ew double on the two Ruby Walsh rides, Vics Canvas and Bayan, Ruby doing 10st 5lb suggests VC is in with a shout.
Another portent regarding Mr Mole is that it was on this horse that AP announced his retirement
Just spoke to a friend at Sandown who spoke to the man PF himself and he said Mr Mole should win.
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
Comment