Ayr Scottish National 2015

[Istabraq]

I also noted today that Cape Tribulation is now 23lb lower than his Gold Cup run 2 years ago.
He ran in a G3 race at Wetherby on Boxing Day, gave Broadway Buffalo 7lb and beat him 16l, he now gives BB just 1lb.
Obviously their careers are heading in very different directions but if CT could find some of the zest that saw him win back to back festival handicaps 3 years ago he'd be a big player, but he wouldn't be high on anyones 'trust' list these days....

[Morning Glory]

I also noted today that Cape Tribulation is now 23lb lower than his Gold Cup run 2 years ago.
He ran in a G3 race at Wetherby on Boxing Day, gave Broadway Buffalo 7lb and beat him 16l, he now gives BB just 1lb.
Obviously their careers are heading in very different directions but if CT could find some of the zest that saw him win back to back festival handicaps 3 years ago he'd be a big player, but he wouldn't be high on anyones 'trust' list these days....

he seems to be a horse who is either up for it or not.

I am going to end up backing two 11 year olds.

[Faugheen_Machine]

CT might be one to play win only on the exchanges at a big price. Either he wins or bombs out completely.

[mayo]

Benovilo a Non runner.

Having a small interest on these today

3:25 Ayr 17th Apr
Fascino Rustico
Win
7/1
14:00 Ayr 17th Apr
Its A Mans World
Win
10/1
14:30 Ayr 17th Apr
Special Agent
Win
6/1
15:05 Ayr 17th Apr
Presenting Junior
Win
11/2

Lucky 15 (£0.78 x 15)
EW

Bet Ref: O/0934394/0000174
£5,194.8

[racecaller13]

The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday 18th April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. It often pays to avoid horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National, especially where there has only been a 7 day gap between the 2 races.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-3-9

7yo: 1-9-43

8yo: 3-5-56

9yo: 3-5-51

10yo: 1-4-46

11yo+: 2-4-44

Age of the winners has been fairly spread out.

In 2009 Hello Bud (aged 11) became the first horse aged over 10 to won the race since 1996. Merigo followed up that feat when winning the race for a second time in 2012, also at age 11. Both 11yo winners won their previous start, in a handicap chase over 3M+, posting an RPR of 140 in the process.



Breeding

Irish Bred: 4-18-139

French Bred: 4-7-62

British Bred: 2-4-42

American Bred: 0-1-4

NZ Bred: 0-0-2

French bred horses have won 4 of last 10 from less than 25% of total runners.

In the past 7 years French bred horses have won 4 and Irish breds have won other 3.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 0-1-19

Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-3-14

Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 1-10-58

Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-6: 5-14-124

Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 3-2-34

8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, though they represented 63.5% of total runners.

The last 3 winners to carry more than 10-6 to victory were Irish bred chasers.

Top Weight: P0P2PP6PP7 (0-1-10)

The 2 top weights to make the frame since 2004 had both previously finished in first 5 in the race.

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 3-11-101

Horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins from 3 runners (exception unseated).



Official Ratings

Horses rated 144 or higher: 1-7-45

Horses rated 132 to 143: 7-21-159

Horses rated 131 or below: 2-2-41

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower

The last 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out, and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start but only carried 10-4. Both had posted a career high RPR of 149+ on previous start.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (exception unplaced over hurdles last time)

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 137+ in one or all of their last 3 completed chase starts

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M 4F+ (one exception did so in a 3M chase and had yet to run over 3M 4F+)

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season

9 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days

8 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (2 exceptions placed in a chase worth 45K+)

8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (1 exception was Merigo in 2012, having won the 2010 grade 3 Scottish National, other had won a class 4 chase but also a grade 3 hurdle)

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was 2nd on only run over 3M+)

7 of 10 winners had run in 10 to 20 chases (3 exceptions ran in a novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)

3 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (6 others were having first course start)

10 of 10 winners had first career run in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race



Aintree Festival

In the last 10 years 20 horses that ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, finishing P4PPP000PU695P00PPP7 (0-1-20)

Since 2000 2 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, on both those occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals, unlike this year, where there is just one.



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Al Co): 422 (0-3-3)

Money Back Faller Insurance at Titanbet.co.uk Novice Chase winner (Cogry): 1 (1-0-1)

Grimthorpe chase winner (Wayward Prince): 33P (0-2-3)

Midlands National winner (Goonyella): 7P2 (0-1-3)

Previous year's Weatherbys Private Banking Novice H'cap Chase winner (Samstown): FF (0-0-2)

Best Prices for 4 Seasons Bet Victor H'cap Chase winner (Yes Tom): PP (0-0-2)

Murphy Group Handicap Chase winner (Sam Winner): PP (0-0-2)

Eider Chase winner (Milborough): 60 (0-0-2)

Highest placed finisher from last year's race to return: 5040221P2 (1-4-9)

Record of placed finishers from previous Scottish National: 50UP62071PP (1-1-13)

Record of first 3 from 4M NH Challenge Cup Novice Chase: PPP1P1 (2-0-6)

The Weatherbys Private Banking Novice H'cap Chase has thrown up some horses that have run well in this, in 2008 it was won by Merigo (Scottish National winner in 2010 & 2012) and in 2010 it was won by Auroras Encore (2012 Scottish National runner-up).

2 of 3 novice chaser winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31

3 of 3 novice chaser winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, (1 pulled up in Cheltenham Club Novice Handicap chase and other two placed in 4M Novice Chase)

Since 2000 three winners had finished in first 7 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup



Trainers

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-3-8) trained the winner in 1992 & 1994 and more recently in 2009. He has seen 4 of his 8 runners in past 10 years make the places.

Alan King (1-3-10) trained Godsmejudge to win this in 2013 and also finish 2nd last year. He also saddled the 2nd & 4th in 2008.

Peter Bowen (1-1-12) won this with Al Co last year, and has him entered again after early fall at Aintree last time.

Philip Hobbs (0-4-10) has seen 4 of his 10 runners get placed.

Paul Nicholls (0-2-17) has saddled several fancied runners in the past 10 years, yet he has not won the race and only gained 2 places from 17 runners.

Tim Easterby (0-1-1), Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-3), Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-5), David Pipe (0-1-9), Venetia Williams (0-1-10) & Sue Smith (0-1-12) have all saddled a placed finisher since 2005.

Irish trained runners: 3F000BP8PF8P0PP9 (0-1-16) have a poor record, gaining just 1 place from 16 runners since 2005. Last Irish-trained winner was back in 1869.

Tony Martin (0-0-1) trained the runner-up in 1999 and his one runner in past 10 years was Patsy Hall (brought down).



Racing Tactics

2 of 10 winners made all (or virtually all)

3 of 10 winners ran behind the leader(s)

1 of 10 winners raced in midfield

4 of 10 winners were held up

4 of the last 8 winners led from before halfway.



Price

No strong trends on prices, there have been a few big shocks in past 10 years with a 40/1 winner in 2014, 66/1 winner in 2008 and 33/1 in 2006.

Favourite (0-4-14) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 7 to 9 (or a 10/11yo that won last time, posting an RPR of 140+)

- French bred horses have done well recently

- Carrying 10-6 or less

- Officially rated 143 or lower

- Respect any horse carrying a penalty

- Run 3 to 6 times this season

- Finished in the first 6 last time

- Posted an RPR of 140+ in one or all of last 3 chase starts

- Won over 3M+

- Posted their career high RPR of 140+ in a chase over 3M 4F+

- Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher (or a previous winner of this race)

- Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)

- Run in at least 10 chases (or ran in novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)

- Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)

- Had first career start in a point to point, bumper or hurdles race

- Bypassed 2015 Aintree Grand National

- Respect horses that finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

- Ran in the Grimthorpe, 4M NH Novice Chase or Somerset National last time

- Trained in Great Britain (ideally by N Twiston-Davies, P Hobbs or A King)

- Irish trained runners have not fared well (last winner in 1869)

[racecaller13]

Scottish Champion Hurdle



The QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle takes place at Ayr on Saturday, 18th April, on the supporting card of the Scottish Grand National. Unlike its Cheltenham equivalent, the Scottish Champion Hurdle is a grade 2 handicap, which means less classy hurdlers are given a chance to taste glory in the race, and higher rated horses have found it tough to concede weight in this in the past 10 years.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-4

5yo: 3-8-25

6yo: 5-3-27

7yo: 1-6-27

8yo: 0-2-8

9yo: 1-0-11

10yo+: 0-1-8

Horses aged 4 to 6: 8-12-56

Horses aged 7 or older: 2-9-54

The last 2 winners aged 8+ had previously won a handicap hurdle worth 50K+ and had made the places in a graded handicap hurdle in one of last two starts.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-9-46

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-11-64

Horses carrying lower weights are strongly favoured. There has only been one winner who carried more than 10-11 and that was in 2012 when 8 of 10 runners carried 10-12+. Both winners to carry 10-10+ had won a big field listed handicap hurdle earlier in the season.

Top Weight: 897946F3343 (0-3-11) has a poor record in this, gaining just 3 places from 11 runners despite representing the favourite in 3 of last 10 runnings.



Official Ratings (based on horses’ actual ratings not on what they ran off)

Horses rated 145 or higher: 0-6-29

Horses rated 134 to 144: 9-13-64

Horses rated 133 or lower: 1-2-17

Horses officially rated 134 to 144 have won 9 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 58.2% of total runners.

The only year a horse rated below 134 to win it was Overturn, in 2010, off a mark of 130. He was having only his 7th run over hurdles and was clearly very well in on the day, especially considering he placed in the race the following year off 30lbs higher.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since August 1st

8 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ in 1 or both of last 2 starts (8 did so last time)

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts (5 won last time)

10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdlers

4 of 10 winners had run in a novice hurdle that season

10 of 10 winners had 4 to 14 previous hurdles starts

10 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap hurdles

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles

6 of 6 winners that ran on flat were rated 80+ on the level

3 of 4 winners that made debut under NH rules had won a bumper (other made debut in a listed novice hurdle in France)



Other Races

Highest place finisher from previous Scottish Champion Hurdle: U4687352 (0-2-8)

Carter Jonas H'cap Hurdle winner (Gassin Golf): 2 (0-1-1)

Big Buck's Bob Champion Cancer Trust Hurdle winner (Bertimont): 3 (0-1-1)

Fighting Fifth winner (Irving): 93 (0-1-2)

Previous season's Dovecote Novices' Hurdle winner (Irving): 84 (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 20

2 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Hurdle, finishing 03

2 of 10 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 40

2 of 10 winners ran in the Ladbroke Hurdle, finishing 01



Previous season’s Anniversary Hurdle

The grade 1 4yo hurdle at the previous season’s Aintree Festival has proved an amazingly good guide to this race. Since 2005, 8 of 10 horses that ran in the previous season’s Anniversary Hurdle made the places in this race the following season, Calipto (3rd), Violet Dancer (9th) & Handiwork (13th) all ran in the 2014 renewal.

Highest placed finisher from previous season's Anniversary Hurdle: 32331247 (1-5-8)

Record horses that ran in previous season's Anniversary Hurdle: 3321331247 (2-6-10)

2 of 3 winners aged 5 ran in previous season's Anniversary Hurdle, finishing 93 (the other won a 2M class 2 handicap hurdle at previous year's Aintree Festival)



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (1-4-11) has gained 1 win and 4 places from his 11 runners since 2005.

Donald McCain (1-1-6), John Quinn (1-0-2), Philip Hobbs (1-0-6) & Alan King (1-0-7) have all trained the winner in past 10 years.

Steve Gollings (0-2-4) has trained the runner-up twice in past 10 years.

James Lambe (0-1-1) saddled Silk Hall finish 3rd in 2013, entered again.

Nicky Henderson (0-1-10) has gained just 1 place from his 10 runners (6 were sent off shorter than 7/1).

Irish trained runners (1-1-6) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 6 runners.



Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners were held up

2 of 10 winners trackers leaders

1 of 10 winners made all (Overturn in 2010)



Price

8 of 10 winners were sent off shorter than 9/1

No very strong trends on prices for this race, the one big shock was Border Castle at 40/1 in 2008.

Favourites (3-4-11) have fared well enough, gaining 3 wins & 4 places, showing a level stakes profit of 1.25.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 or a 5yo that ran in the 2014 Anniversary Hurdle

- Carrying 10-11 or less

- Officially rated 134 to 144

- Run 3 to 6 times since 1st August 2014

- Ran in past 40 days

- Posted an RPR of 135+ in one or both of last 2 starts

- Finished in first 3 in one or both of last 2 starts

- 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdler (novice hurdlers have done well)

- Run in 9 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 3)

- Officially rated 80+ on the flat (or won a bumper)

- Finished in first 4 in County, Betfair and/or Swinton Hurdle

- Hold-up horses favoured

[Old Vic]

Thanks RC

Top Weight: 897946F3343 (0-3-11) has a poor record in this, gaining just 3 places from 11 runners despite representing the favourite in 3 of last 10 runnings.

That actually looks like a very credible show from top weight - place bets landed in last 3/4 renewals ?

EDIT:

Only realised now this is the hurdle :o

Top weight in National
Top Weight: P0P2PP6PP7 (0-1-10)

now that is horrible for Sam Winner backers.

[Old Vic]

Backed the Sue Smith trained bottom weight. Going to blame MrMcGoldrick if he doesnt win.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Backed the Sue Smith trained bottom weight. Going to blame MrMcGoldrick if he doesnt win.

We'll sink or swim together OV, I'm also top and tailing the race by backing Sam Winner too, there must be method in the madness for Paul Nicholls to skip the English version to carry top weight here, I reckon he's thinking class may tell.

[Morning Glory]

Tom seagal copying my Wayward Prince tip.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Tom seagal copying my Wayward Prince tip.

Classy horse with a good weight, not sure if he's a confirmed stayer though, I can't remember seeing him in a race of this type, did he run here last year

[Thomas Shelby]

I think Wayward Prince can run a big race too.

He will like the ground.

[Old Vic]

Scottish National winners

Our thread

http://t.co/ACqce7p3Tw pic.twitter.com/3woKTdmgTS

— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) April 18, 2015

[mayo]

Gone with Broadway Buffalo as main poke. Had to back Vintage Star at the price and in those colours.

[Istabraq]

I've gone with the 3:
Sego Success
Broadway Buffalo
Houblon Des Obeaux

Good luck alll