King George VI Chase 2012

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Great stat here from Donn McClean's website..

King George cracker

Perhaps it is the same every year, but this year’s King George VI Chase is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races of the season, with an inordinate number of progressive relative youngsters seemingly intent on lining up.

One of the more notable aspects of the race at this stage is the number of horses towards the head of the betting who have not yet won a race over three miles or more. Finian’s Rainbow, Al Ferof and For Non Stop have all won point-to-points, but not one of the trio has ever gone beyond two miles and five furlongs under Rules. Riverside Theatre has won an Ascot Chase over two miles and five and a half furlongs, and he did chase Long Run home in the King George two years ago, but he hasn’t yet won over three miles, while Cue Card, who had the pace to win a bumper over a mile and six furlongs, has never been tried over a distance in excess of two and a half miles.

Even Sizing Europe hasn’t won over three miles. He has shaped like a potential King George horse for a little while now, and he was desperately unlucky not to win the 2011 JNWine.com Chase on his only attempt at three miles, but he is still a maiden at the trip.

The King George is not like the St Leger, in that, if you know beforehand that a horse can stay the St Leger trip, he is probably too slow to win it. The King George is a tougher stamina test than is generally appreciated in which, history tells us, proven form over the trip is a definite asset. You can easily put forward reasons why any of the three-mile virgins should stay the trip, but the fact remains that the 11-year-old Edredon Bleu, the six-year-old Kicking King (like Sizing Europe, runner-up in the JNWine.com Chase) and the ridiculously fortunate Algan are the only three horses who have won the King George in the last 25 years who hadn’t previously won over the trip, and that is a stat that is worth bearing in mind.

[Sizing]

"Riverside Theatre is very good, and the plan was not to run before Kempton," said Henderson.

"I wanted to take him for a racecourse gallop at Newbury on Sunday but that's not going to happen, and I might take him to Kempton early next week."

Long Run appeared none the worse for his first outing of the campaign in last weekend's Betfair Chase as he stood in front of the cameras on a very chilly morning at Seven Barrows near Lambourn.

The 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup hero was beaten two and a half lengths by Silviniaco Conti at Haydock, and his trainer said: "He has come back fine. Ruby Walsh got a good lead on Silviniaco Conti and at least we haven't had a great battle, like we had with Kauto Star last year."

The third member, last season's Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Finian's Rainbow, flopped on his intended prep-race for the King George at Ascot over the weekend.

Henderson said: "He was very disappointing at Ascot. He was the one of my runners I didn't think would be beaten but it went pear-shaped. We looked at his scope and his blood but it hasn't shown anything. Barry (Geraghty) is adamant it was just the ground and he has come back fresh.

"He might run, as where else is there to go?"

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Nice piece from Nick Luck neither kicking swc in the balls or bigging him up ...

At 4-1, Waley Cohen’s jockey enough for me

Monday 3 December 2012

Get Nick Luck's weekly column first in Racing Plus every Saturday, and you can get it for half-price*here!

People have always grumbled about Sam Waley Cohen riding Long Run, but their position on this enduring partnership has rarely been as consistent as the horse.

One thing is for certain: there were precious few dissenting voices after Long Run’s King George and Gold Cup victories, performances ironically peppered with far more minor jumping blemishes than either this year’s Cheltenham third or last weekend’s Haydock submission at the hands of the beautifully ridden Silvianaco Conti.

Still, that hasn’t stopped a slew of pseudo-technical analysis of the horse’s apparently poor fencing, nor the perceived contribution to the decline in that sphere by the jockey.*

Whatever you may believe about Long Run’s ability to maximise his potential under his rider, the bald fact is that the horse loses less ground at his obstacles now than he did when looking so dominant two seasons ago.*

What has been somewhat absent in a few of his subsequent defeats has been his powerful finish; his ability to find that precious extra off the bridle. Surely the balance of evidence, however, suggests that strongest suit can only be played to full effect with the benefit of a relentless championship gallop. This pace scenario is much more likely in next month’s King George, in which most all Long Run’s meaningful rivals are unproven over staying distances.*

You are familiar enough with the habitual dynamics of that race by now to know that its searching tempo leaves very few in the mix by the third last, after which the horse with the most potent stamina/class combination comes to the fore.*

When viewed in that light, the 4-1 currently available makes considerable appeal.

And, of course, the jockey’s putative disadvantage is built into that generous quote. But let us consider exactly how big a detriment to the horse’s chance he is.

Aside from the aforementioned jumping ‘issue’, the two most popular theories based on Haydock are Waley Cohen’s lack of tactical acumen relative to Walsh, Geraghty etc and a loss of confidence.

To deal with the first point, nobody in their right mind believes an amateur could ever be as complete or accomplished as some of the finest horsemen ever to have graced the game.*

That said, Waley Cohen’s failure to alter plan ‘A’ when faced with a pedestrian gallop last weekend may yet prove a blessing.

If you believe that this is a horse whose natural game is to make the running, you haven’t watched much racing.*

His edginess in the preliminaries and a naturally onward-bound, fresh and keen demeanour tell you that he is far too likely to expend too much energy too early in his race. And it was ever thus: remember those of us who believed him to be most unlikely ever to stay beyond a bare three miles?

On the issue of Waley Cohen’s confidence, this too has garnered plenty of cod-psychology.*

The truth is that he may lack many attributes of a 21st century professional jumps jockey, but he lacks nothing in confidence or self-belief, qualities that have played an enormous part in guiding his admittedly talented clutch of horses to victories on the most high-profile occasions.
Indeed, it is a fair bet that he has a good bit more confidence in the complex Long Run than you or I at this stage.*

As such, that 4-1 looks even better.*

[ABU]

Sizing Europe pricewised ..

[Old Vic]

Geraghty has the choice of the two and Henderson would rather have his plans in place.

"Riverside worked at Kempton on Monday and went very well with Darlan and Grandouet, who comes out this weekend (in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham), Darlan will probably wait for the Christmas Hurdle," Henderson told At The Races.

"We've always planned to send Riverside straight to the King George as he goes so well fresh, he's won first time out every time. He's in great order.

"Finian's Rainbow will also join the party and Long Run seems very well in himself now. He had a race at Haydock but he was in great form yesterday, so those three almost certainly head to the King George.

"I would have to leave the decision on jockeys to Barry. We'll have to discuss it sooner rather than later as we'll have to make alternative plans (for either Riverside Theatre or Finian's Rainbow)."

[JohnC]

Kempton trip unlikely for Sizing Europe


SIZING EUROPE is more likely to run at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting than tackle the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton on December 26.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of the six-time Grade 1-winning ten-year-old, said on Sunday: "We won't be making a final decision about Sizing Europe's Christmas target for another few days but at this stage we're probably leaning away from the King George and looking more at Leopardstown.

"We have a choice of races there - the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase over two miles one furlong and the Lexus Chase over three miles, and chances are he'll be staying at home. Taking the weather into account it might make more sense than travelling."

He added: "He's in good form and you'd imagine the Dial-A-Bet might be the race for him if the ground is really testing, while we have the Lexus as an alternative if it was yielding or thereabouts."

Sizing Europe has won both his starts this season, landing the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase on his reappearance over 2m4f at Gowran Park and the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase over the same trip last month.

He is a general 7-1 for the King George and 6-1 with Boylesports for the Lexus, for which Paddy Power quote 5-1 with a run.

[Sprinter]

DAVID PIPE on Monday declared himself pleased with the progress Grands Crus is making from his wind operation, with hopes still alive that the seven-year-old could make the field for the William Hill King George VI at Kempton on December 26.

Following a bitterly disappointing run as 7-4 favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham last month, with Tom Scudamore pulling the horse up before two out, Grands Crus had his soft palate cauterised, and Pipe tweeted on Monday he was happy with the chaser's recovery.

Speaking to the Racing Post, he said: "He just had a routine gallop and everything is fine, I just wanted to keep everyone informed with his progress. He will be left in at the five-day stage and a decision on the King George will be made very late, as I've always said it will be."

Grands Crus is as short as 10-1 for the King George, for which Long Run is the general 7-2 favourite.

[Old Vic]

Sir Des Champs could yet travel to Kempton to contest the William Hill King George VI Chase on Boxing Day with trainer Willie Mullins describing his decision as to whether to run in that race or the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown as "a 50/50 call".

A winner at both of the last two Cheltenham Festivals, Mullins' charge met with his first defeat over fences when outpointed by Flemenstar at Punchestown earlier this month.

That defeat left Mullins feeling slightly dejected, the trainer saying that his charge "never really looked like winning". But his faith in the six year old remains strong and the trainer is looking forward to getting him back on track over the Christmas period.

"I won't be making up my mind until much nearer the time and I am very open-minded at this stage," he told Sportinglife.com. "I wouldn't be worried about going to Kempton if that's what I decided was the best route. I'll take a look at what's going where and how the ground is shaping up and make a decision.

"I had never been worried about the ground for him before his last run and I certainly thought he could handle a quick surface and soft ground as well.

"He's come out of the race in good form and the run should have brought him on."

[JohnC]

Ian Ogg preview...

Monday's news of the tendon injury sustained by Al Ferof saw Long Run harden at the head of the betting for the William Hill King George VI Chase and there will be many who believe that odds of around 5/2 represent very fair value about Nicky Henderson's charge.

After all, he produced a brilliant display to win the race in 2011 and beat all bar the recently retired Kauto Star by 17 lengths and upwards 12 months ago. He went into that race on the back of a defeat at Haydock and comes into this year's edition off the back of a similar effort on Merseyside.

There are very few negatives despite the overall feeling that during last season he failed to match the heights set in his 2010/11 campaign.

In that respect, a comparison can be drawn with Master Minded who never matched the visually brilliant performance of his 2008 Champion Chase win but he did still go on to win another seven Grade One races so it was hardly downhill all the way.

Cue Card is second favourite following his brilliant win at Exeter but there have to be doubts about his staying the three mile trip and it's hard to argue that those concerns are built into his price.

Sir Des Champs is more likely to be lining up at Leopardstown, Grands Crus is in a race against time following his breathing operation, Finian's Rainbow ran like a drain last time and there was nothing in Captain Chris' Ascot win to suggest he's a significantly better horse than the one who was thrashed last year.

That just leaves Kauto Stone and Riverside Theatre of the market leaders.

The former suffered a frustrating first season in Britain but there was a lot to like about his Down Royal defeat of First Lieutenant who, don't forget, beat Rock On Ruby in the Neptune at Cheltenham and also finished second to Bob's Worth in the RSA.

Riverside Theatre finished a fine second to the favourite in the 2010/11 season and went on to win his next three starts, all in Grade Ones.

He goes well fresh, acts on the track and has been trained for the race but his price is probably about right.

Paul Nicholls made no secret of the fact that Al Ferof was his number one contender for the race but, equally, heralded Kauto Stone as holding live claims and there is such strength at Ditcheat that the number two hope in that yard would be a star in the majority of others.

Ruby Walsh rides and, things being what they are, his price is sure to contract in the run up to Boxing Day but, for all their claims, neither horse has me excited about their chance.

Long Run may not have delivered the performances that we'd all hoped he would following his King George and Gold Cup double of 2011.

His jumping still leaves plenty to be desired (although he's never fallen or unseated) and he lacks the charisma of Kauto Stone's half-brother - or even Cue Card - and he doesn't thrill in the manner of Denman but he is still a decent horse.

Yes, there are more exciting runners in the field, runners with untapped potential but there are no doubts about Long Run - trip, ground, course, class; he ticks all of those boxes - and the generally available 5/2 (11/4 in places) seems a very fair price indeed.

[Old Vic]

NICKY HENDERSON on Tuesday moved to dispel any uncertainty surrounding the participation of Finian's Rainbow in the William Hill King George VI at Kempton on December 26

Concerns were raised on Twitter that the nine-year-old would not be lining up next Wednesday, as his price had drifted to 60 on Betfair in recent days.

Finian's Rainbow was last of four when sent off odds-on for his seasonal reappearance at Ascot in the Amlin Chase last month, and Henderson reported all subsequent checks of the Queen Mother Champion Chase winner had been clear and he was an intended starter.

"Everything went right," he said. "He worked very well on Saturday and very well this [Tuesday] morning. All three [Finian's Rainbow, Long Run and Riverside Theatre] are intended runners."**

On Tuesday evening, Finian's Rainbow was back into 24-1 on Betfair for the King George.

Paul Nicholls, whose hand for the Grade 1 was severely weakened on Monday with the news that Al Ferof has been ruled out for the season with a tendon injury, confirmed in his Betfair blog that Ruby Walsh will now take the ride on Kauto Stone.

"Al Ferof is potentially so good that we will take our time with him, and he will have the same recovery schedule as Big Buck's [month's box rest then given 2-3 hours walking daily until the ground is better in April before being turned out], then go to Pat and John's for the summer," Nicholls said.

The champion trainer was in need of a jockey for Kauto Stone, winner of the Grade 1 JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal on his last start, with intended partner Daryl Jacob serving out his ten-day suspension for dropping his hands at Wetherby.

[Statto]

Long Run looks the clear stats pick imo.

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 6 or 7
Has run 1 to 3 times this season
Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+)
Won over 3M+
Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases
Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD
Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup
Finished in first 3 in the Betfair Chase
Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1)

Other Races

Previous year's winner: 40111132 (4-2-8)

Highest placed finisher from previous King George: 4501411132 (4-2-10)

Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 11311121 (6-1-8)

6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 211113

6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U11

10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (2 exceptions placed) -

8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 170+ last time

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season - Big Negative for Riverside Theatre

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was 2nd in grade 1 on only run over 3M+) - takes out most of the field !

8 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases

7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (2 others having first course start)

[Old Vic]

Sizing Europe going for Dial a bet in ireland and Junior supplemented...

JUNIOR was on Thursday supplemented for Wednesday's William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton, with connections keen to have a crack at Grade 1 company on softer ground.

Winner of the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time out on heavy ground, the David Pipe-trained nine-year-old was supplemented at a cost of £10,000.

It was a late decision, as Pipe said: "It will obviously be soft ground, which will put the emphasis on stamina and the owners [Middleham Park Racing] were keen to give him an entry. They have paid £10,000 and we only did it at two minutes to 12, but I can see where they're coming from."

The sponsors make Junior a 33-1 chance for the race, with Henry de Bromhead earlier confirming that Sizing Europe will miss the race due to the ground.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Captain Chris (IRE) 8 hammered by LR last year
Champion Court (IRE) 7 hardly up to this
Cue Card (GB) 6 no 3 mile win but a contender
Finian's Rainbow (IRE) 9 poor show LTO,no 3 mile win, ground concerns, might not run
For Non Stop (IRE) 7 not great LTO - easily beaten in jewson
Grands Crus (FR) 7 cant be fully ready - but on Feltham form ?
Hunt Ball (IRE) 7 ground and overhyped
Junior (GB) 9 place chance but surely not good enough
Kauto Stone (FR) 6 Ruby factor will like ground ... was he below par last year ?
Long Run (FR) 7 11 10 obvious chance but SWC factor
Menorah (IRE) 7 11 10 NR ? jumping poor
Riverside Theatre (GB) 8 No winner has won off this kind of break since ...? 20+ years if ever...jumping on this ground ? 2nd place form 2 years ago would be good enough now ?
Sir des Champs (FR) 6 Wins if he shows
The Giant Bolster (GB) 7 Under the radar probably overpriced
Wishfull Thinking (GB) 9 Wind ? Good enough ? NR ?

[mayo]

I can see Kauto Stone starting 2nd favourite for this. Housewives choice etc etc

Agree it looks tailor made for Sir Des Champs and seems a bit firmer on betfair tonight ...not much volume though.

[mayo]

Daqman

great eight for the king george:

daqman surveys the front of the king george market, analyzing the hopes of the top eight for boxing day. The race’s roll of honour seldom has new names on the board but there’s no kauto star this year. His record-breaking reign is over.

Stay with daqman for this boxing-day treat: Can long run regain the crown? Which horses could improve; more importantly, which can stay with him over the three miles? Daqman whets your appetite.

There are just three names on the king george roll of honour since 2003. It seems a long, long time since edredon bleu that year (did he really win it?), perhaps because the memories of five-time winner kauto star are so strong. Or perhaps because no one wants to remember george bush singing ‘i did it my way.’

after kicking king’s back-to-back success (2004-5), there was only one inter regnum to kauto’s reign, when long run beat him into third in 2010. Last year kauto star came back, with long run put in his place in second, yet that defeat was an omen in itself for long run this year.

Longrunlong run before kauto star recaptured kempton’s christmas cracker and broke the race record, and going right back to mandarin in 1957, five horses have regained the king george crown, with additionally, desert orchid, see more business and wayward lad gaining sweet revenge.

That’s one reason why i can’t do my usual abc guide: The stats about age and form don’t make sense because, gold cup or king george, from arkle through to best mate and kauto star, you are so often following a young hero until he becomes a legend and, with only one or two exceptions it’s a young horses’ race this time around.

Long run himself is still only seven. Like mandarin, the fellow, kicking king and kauto star, he opened his account in the race when only six years old, though the 2010 race was delayed until january 2011, so it should have been run when he was just five.

We were told there was plenty left to work on when long run returned to the racecourse at haydock in the bf chase in november yet time may tell that his close second to silviniaco conti was as good a seasonal debut that he’s ever made.

Long run was only third in a handicap at the start of 2010-11 and was hammered eight lengths by kauto star in the same haydock opening to his 2011-12 season.

Nicky henderson’s son of cadoudal has never been out of the first three in 23 starts, 13 of them wins, five under sam waley-cohen. The only blemish on his record is the decision to drop him 10lb in the ratings since his defeat by kauto star in last year’s race. If only this were a handicap!

Cue card even so, long run’s nearest rival in the market, cue card, is rated 7lb his inferior, and those ratings are for his form up to a maximum of 19.5 furlongs over fences.
He’s never completed in a race beyond 2m 4f and he’s won only one chase outside novice class in his career. But he’s just six years old.

And the world’s at his feet if he can combine stamina with the speed he showed over hurdles or when second to sprinter sacre in this year’s arkle with al ferof more than 25 lengths behind. If..

Riverside theatre a 5lb better animal than cue card, according to the handicapper, but has two more years showing in his teeth, though with only five more starts on his cv.

The reason for that was a pelvic injury which denied him a crack at the 2011 ryanair but he made up for it by slamming albertas run in the same race in march.

He’s not had a prep run for boxing day but why should he when he’s won on his reappearance for the last three seasons. His form at kempton is 11112 but that ‘2’ was a 12-lengths defeat by long run in the delayed 2010 king george in january last year.

Captain chris in the same boat as cue card and riverside theatre in that he’s never won over 3m; in fact, not beyond 2m 3f.

The pendil novices’ chase here at kempton in february last year was the scene of his prep win during a superb piece of training by philip hobbs to get him spot on for the arkle that march. He was. He won it.

But he’s never really been in that top form since and was more than 18 lengths of the winner when third in this king george last december, and was beaten six lengths by riverside theatre in the ryanair.

Sir des champs would have been challenging long run for favouritism on boxing day had he won the john durkan on his reappearance at punchestown.

But the eight-in-a-row winner wasn’t even favourite. He came up against another rising star, flemenstar in fact, and was stuffed five lengths.

However, trainer willie mullins was unperturbed, pointing out that the trip was only 2m 4f and that he would come on the proverbial bundle for the race.

He’d won his previous outing over 3m 1f by 36 lengths and 31, albeit in a novice chase, but, as we’ve seen, with some in front of him in the market seemingly short-runners at 3m, he certainly cannot be written off for that defeat.

Grandscrusgrands crus ditto. Same again. Déjà vu. As with sir des champs, only worse, the grands crus balloon seemed to have burst after his flop, fourth to bobs worth in the rsa and, again (pulled up), on his return at cheltenham last month.

But ditto, same again, déjà vu, this horse is a stout performer at 3m and beat silviniaco conti (see long run) on this kempton boxing day card in last year’s feltham. Can he bounce back to that form?

Finians rainbow what price nicky henderson ‘doing a michael dickinson’, or at least getting the 1-2-3, if the rainbow follows long run and riverside theatre into the line-up and up the hill on the day?

At nine, he’s exposed, but still had to earn his 173 rating, which officially puts him a pound in front of the field. But (ditto etc) that came of success up to a maximum of 2m 4f. He’s never attempted a race under rules beyond 2m 5f.

He blundered out of it behind captain chris at ascot last month but before that had beaten a string of these over shorter trips: Albertas run, al ferof, kauto stone, sizing europe and wishfull thinking, including in the champion chase.

Kauto stone i end with a kauto, which is where i came in. ‘stone’ would not have been uttered in the same breath as ‘star’ until his return – over 3m mark you – at down royal in november when he looked like ‘the real deal’ in his length defeat of first lieutenant.

Perhaps not much wording will change in the ‘past winners’ list, after all, with ruby walsh back on a ‘kauto.’

king george verdict: At the front of the market, long run is facing stable companions or horses untried at 3m. Add the two together and you have every opportunity for team henderson to set it up for a stamina test to bring in long run’s raking finish. The ground is now similar to when he won the penultimate king george.

I look to the new kids on the block as his main dangers, sir des champs and kauto stone, 7-1 and 8-1 respectively with ladbrokes on thursday morning when both were 10.0 value on betdaq.