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Daring Article and She's got grit are amongst 5 that I can find that fulfill the recent trends criteria for this race so I'll take both of these each way, around 25/1 and 40/1
Daring Article and She's got grit are amongst 5 that I can find that fulfill the recent trends criteria for this race so I'll take both of these each way, around 25/1 and 40/1
I am happy to be riding Perfect Gentleman in the BoyleSports Irish Grand National on Monday. I think he has the right profile for the race and 10-10 is a lovely weight.
He ran a blinder in the four-miler in Cheltenham. He was prominent all the way and probably just got run out of it close home. He jumps really well.
It’s a competitive race but I think a novice might win it, something like Lots Of Memories or Perfect Gentleman.
A lot of the handicappers in it are exposed and plenty of them want better ground than we’re likely to get either.
So, you’ll want to be going for a horse that has shown some bit of form on winter ground.
Perfect Gentleman has plenty of age for a novice as a 10-year-old. I’ve only ridden him once, when he beat Sadler’s Risk in Cork last November. That’s not bad form.
He fell in the Drinmore after that and was second to Gilgamboa at Christmas before being fourth in Cheltenham. He stays and has shown enough pace to win over 2½ miles so, with luck in running, has a great chance.
Speaking of which, Nationals and trends that is, the age trend in the Irish Grand National is not at all strong. History tells you that a minor or a senior can win it.
In the last 10 renewals, a six-year-old has won once, a seven-year-old three times, an eight-year-old three times, a nine-year-old once and a 10-year-old twice. In the 10 years before that, a seven-year-old won three times, an eight-year-old won twice, a nine-year-old twice, a 10-year-old twice and an 11-year-old once.
But the weight stat is similar to Aintree’s: lower is better.
The last horse to carry more than 11st to victory in the Irish National was Commanche Court, and he was so good he won the Grade 1 Heineken Gold Cup at Punchestown on his next run. Before Comanche Court, it was subsequent Aintree National winner Bobbyjo, and the two before Bobbyjo were Flashing Steel and Desert Orchid. Shows you how good you have to be to carry big weights to victory.
Nine of the last 10 winners carried 10st 8lb or less. The only one who carried more was last year’s winner Shutthefrontdoor, who is now favourite for the Aintree National, despite the fact that he will have to race off an 11lb higher mark than last year’s Irish National mark. And eight of the last 10 winners carried 10st 5lb or less. So start at the bottom of the handicap and work your way up.
"Now that he has decided which horse he is going to ride, people are going to back him no matter what. It will be one of those occasions where people will tell their children and grandchildren they were there and backed AP McCoy's final winner of the Boylesports Irish Grand National. He probably will be a little shorter tomorrow evening than the current 8-1," Blanche said.
Grand Nationals are the stuff of racing fairy tales, from the fictional Pie with a young Elizabeth Taylor racing to glory, to the family successes of the Walshs and Carberrys, and Blanche thinks the farewell to McCoy might not be the only source of a magical ending at Fairyhouse tomorrow.
"We saw a bit of money for Vics Canvas before the McCoy announcement on Friday and he could spoil the party," Blanche said. "He ran a very good race at Leopardstown over Christmas and this race seems to have been the plan since then. He is trained locally by Dermot McLoughlin, which would be a fantastic success in itself, and I just think that if anyone was going to do it, it might be him."
If the sporting fates prefer their fairy tales in the mould of David slaying Goliath then Paul Fahey is hoping they turn a benevolent gaze on Lots Of Memories tomorrow evening.
The eight-year-old claimed the biggest success of his career at Fairyhouse last Easter when winning a three-mile handicap hurdle impressively. Since then, his form has been given added lustre with placed performances behind the likes of Don Poli and Beat All in Grade One races and a success over fences. Twice Fahey has brought Lots Of Memories to Fairyhouse and a second place and victory have been the results.
"We said we would go down the top route with him, but he was well beaten at Leopardstown over Christmas and we thought there was no point chasing those horses around Cheltenham, so we decided to find a handicap for him and this was it," explains Fahey, who also trained his half brother He'llberembered to finish eighth in the race, but Lots Of Memories is a better horse.
While McCoy has the pick of JP McManus' blue bloods to chose from, Paul Fahey and his team have more earthy sorts to work with. Lots Of Memories is owned by the trainer's wife, Siobhain, and their neighbour, John Breen, who comes into ride work for them most mornings before heading off to his actual job. The horse was bred by Mary Lett in Wexford, who Fahey, part of the renowned farrier family from outside Monasterevin, has worked for and known for 30 years. If they are to poop the McCoy party, then an even better celebration after years of toil will erupt.
"The horses are reared here, Mary breeds them and to have a horse good enough to even line up against so many expensively-bought horses with a chance is good, but from cheap stallions to get one to land in graded races is a fair achievement. We can compete against the big boys. We might not be able to beat them all the time, but to get one over them once in while would be brilliant," he smiles.
Most may be hoping for a fairy tale farewell for a champion who has graced his sport, but in the place where fairies once dwelt, there are some for whom magic would be a different storybook ending to the Irish Grand National.
The Boylesports Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse always takes place on Easter Monday, which falls on the 6th April. So, unlike last year’s race, this year’s renewal takes place 6 days before the Aintree equivalent, which means there may be fewer raiders travelling over from Great Britain. Lesser exposed chasers have dominated the race in recent years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-18
7yo: 3-5-52
8yo: 3-9-71
9yo: 1-7-62
10yo: 2-4-43
11yo: 0-2-15
12yo+: 0-1-5
Horses aged 6 to 8: 7-16-141
Horses aged 9 or older: 3-14-125
7 of last 9 winners have been aged 6 to 8
There has been no winners aged over 10 in past 10 years. There have been 3 winners aged 11+ in past 30 years, all 3 were trained in Great Britain.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-6 or more: 2-12-108
Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 8-18-158
9 of last 10 winners have all carried 10-8 or less (exception carried 10-13)
Of the 34 horses to carry 11-0+ in last 10 years (0-1-34), none have won and only 1 has made the places.
Record of top weight: PPPPFFP8P8 (0-0-10), only 2 of the 10 horses to be allotted top weight have completed the course.
2 of 10 winners were racing from out of the handicap, none by more than 7lbs.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 137 or higher: 1-9-85
Horses rated 125 to 136: 9-18-171
Horses rated 124 or lower: 0-3-10
9 of 19 winners were officially rated 125 to 136.
Since 2007 all 7 winners and 30 of 32 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142.
Breeding
Irish bred: 9-23-205
French bred: 1-4-32
British bred: 0-3-22
German bred: 0-0-1
USA bred: 0-0-6
9 of 10 winners have been Irish bred though they have represented 77% of the total runners.
4 of 5 French-bred horses were aged 6 or 7 (exception aged 8)
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last chase start (2 exceptions were unplaced in a grade A h’cap chase & 3 others unplaced at Cheltenham Festival)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 131+ on last completed chase start
9 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track (exception had yet to run right-handed over fences but won 2 of 3 hurdles racing RH)
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a 3M point to point)
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 12 chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 chases
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (5 had yet to win one)
7 of 7 Irish-trained winners had won a chase at Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
5 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in a Grade A or B Leopardstown H'cap Chase since Christmas (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in Ten Up Novice Chase)
9 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (exception had had just 3 chase starts before that season)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (2 exceptions were placed in a class 2 or higher chase)
7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 20K+ (2 exceptions placed in a race worth 19K+)
10 of 10 winners had first start in a hurdle, bumper or point to point
Other Races
4M NH Novice Chase winner (Cause Of Causes): 1 (1-0-1)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Very Wood): 0F1 (1-0-3)
Nas Na Riogh Novice H'cap Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): 4 (0-1-1)
Cheltenham Cross Country Chase winner (Rivage D'Or): P4 (0-1-2)
Cork Grand National winner (Vics Canvas): P3 (0-1-2)
Porterstown H'cap Chase winner (Embracing Change): 4P0 (0-1-3)
Woodlands Park Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 00 (0-0-2)
Daily Mirror Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): RP (0-0-2)
Mercury Engineering Handicap Chase winner (She's Got Grit): 58 (0-0-2)
At The Races Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): PR (0-0-2)
Midlands National winner (Goonyella): PP (0-0-2)
Porter & Co. Beginners Chase winner (Gold Bullet): PFP (0-0-3)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final winner (Heathfield): U5P (0-0-3)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Embracing Change): 80P5 (0-0-4)
4 of 10 winners had finished in the first 6 in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham that season or the previous season
3 of 3 British-trained winners ran in 4M NH Novice Chase last time, finishing 186
2 of 2 Jonjo O'Neill winners won a 2M 4F chase at Aintree meeting in October
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Paddy Power Handicap Chase, finishing 07
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Thyestes Chase, finishing 10
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Munster National, finishing 0P
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 31
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Ten Up Novice Chase, finishing 1F
2 of 7 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Hugh McMahon Memorial Novice Chase, finishing 41
Trainers
British trained runners (3-3-25) have won 4 renewals in past 11 years.
Arthur Moore (1-2-10) trained the winner in 2011 and also saddled 4 other placed finishers since 2004.
Thomas Gibney (1-0-2) & Mouse Morris (1-0-5) have also both trained the winner in past 10 years.
The Sandra Hughes yard (0-4-15) were responsible for the winner in 2003 and have seen 4 of his 15 runners in last 10 runnings make the places.
Ted Walsh (0-1-1), Gordon Elliot (0-1-5) & Jim Dreaper (0-1-6) have saddled 1 placed finisher.
Several Irish trainers have done poorly in this race in the past decade such as Willie Mullins (0-2-20), Noel Meade (0-0-15), Tony Martin (0-1-13), Paul Nolan (0-1-11) & Tom Taaffe (0-0-6).
Racing Tactics
7 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division early on
3 of 10 winners tracked leaders
Price
It has been a race for outsiders, with 6 of last 10 winners priced between 20/1 & 50/1, although last year, Shutthefrontdoor became first winning favourite this century.
Favourites (1-2-11) have gained 1 win and 2 places in past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 1.00. Prior to last year, you had to go back to 1999 for last winning favourite.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred (or French bred aged 6 or 7)
- Aged 6 to 10 (ideally 6 to 8)
- Carrying 10-8 or less (no more than 10-13)
- Officially rated 128 to 142
- Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
- Posted an RPR of 133+ over fences this season
- Won over 3M+
- Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
- Won a chase at right-handed track
- Previously won a chase Fairyhouse, Navan or Clonmel
- Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
- Contested no more than 7 handicap chases (& won no more than 2)
- Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
- Ran in this season’s Munster National, Paddy Power and/or Thyestes Chase
- Ran in a Grade A or B h’cap chase at Leopardstown since Christmas Day
- Finished in first 4 in 2014 or 2015 Ten Up Novice Chase
- Finished in first 5 in 2014 or 2015 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham
- Trained in Great Britain or
- Trained by, Arthur Moore, Michael Hourigan or a smaller Irish
I have a strong fancy for The Job is Right, missed the 20's with the High St but managed to back the win at 20 on Betfair and 4.5 place.
Two others who could go well at big prices, Rogue Angel and Usuel Smurfer, if there's a race in the calendar where you shouldn't be afraid to back at big prices this is it.
I have a strong fancy for The Job is Right, missed the 20's with the High St but managed to back the win at 20 on Betfair and 4.5 place.
Two others who could go well at big prices, Rogue Angel and Usuel Smurfer, if there's a race in the calendar where you shouldn't be afraid to back at big prices this is it.
the job is right ticks a lot of boxes. Novice - trainer - prep. Weight a small concern.
I had overlooked Rogue Angel but seems a big price - could be a big week for Nina and Mouse.
I had overlooked Rogue Angel but seems a big price - could be a big week for Nina and Mouse.
He ran a cracker in the Cheltenham 4 miler last season beaten 4.5l and had horses like Foxrock and Milborough behind, runs well fresh and been off since January, his form this season isn't great but maybe the break will work.
I'm sure there'll be worse 50/1 shots running tomorrow....
So here we are, National week. One of those unusual years in which days rather than weeks separate the Crabbie’s Aintree Grand National and the BoyleSports Irish one.
There are many differences between the two versions. There are the fences for starters, big and spruce and green but softer these days at Aintree, most of them named; smaller but still big, and black and birch and tough at Fairyhouse, and none of them named, with the possible exception of the ‘one at Ballyhack’.
There is the age thing too. Like, if you are a seven-year-old at Aintree, you are trying to build a bridge back to the war years (Bogskar, 1940) and if you are eight you are talking of Bindaree in 2002, just the third eight-year-old winner since Red Rum’s first in 1973. Even if you are nine, you are looking back six year’s to the last one. (National archive.) It is an older horse’s race.
Not so the Irish one. Shutthefrontdoor last year was seven, Liberty Counsel and Lion Na Bearnai were both 10, Organisedconfusion was six, Bluesea Cracker and Niche Market were eight. Indeed, in the last decade, every age from six to 10 inclusive was represented in the winner’s enclosure. In the last 20 years, the race has been won by a six-year-old once, a seven-year-old six times, an eight-year-old five times, a nine-year-old three times, a 10-year-old four times and even an 11-year-old once. From an age perspective, it’s anybody’s race. (National lottery.)
The weight factor in the Irish National is big, however, possibly even bigger than it is at Aintree. While Hedgehunter pushed through the 11st barrier at Aintree in 2005, and Don’t Push It and Neptune Collonges have both proven since that a high weight does not rule you out, the percentage call at Aintree is still to look for a horse with a low(ish) weight.
A low weight is even more important at Fairyhouse. Only one horse (Shutthefrontdoor last year) has carried more than 10st 8lb to victory in the last decade, and only two have carried more than 10st 5lb. In the last 20 years, only the top class Flashing Steel, subsequent Aintree National winner Bobbyjo and subsequent Heineken Gold Cup winner and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Commanche Court have carried big weights to victory in the Irish National. You really should start your search at the bottom of the handicap.
Take Empire to solve National riddle
Empire Of Dirt’s handicap rating of 132 sees him set to carry just 10st 2lb, and highly-talented Luke Dempsey’s 5lb claim takes his weight down to 9st 11lb, a weight that he can easily do. That gives Gigginstown House horse a real chance.
He is a nicely progressive novice chaser, the type of horse who can do really well in the Irish National. He was a good novice hurdler last season, just below top class, but he is built to jump fences and he has been steadily progressive all season since tackling the larger obstacles.
He looked certain to win a two-mile-six-furlong handicap chase at Thurles in January when he bounded clear off the home turn, but he came down at the tricky second last fence. He actually jumped the fence well, but the ground runs away from you a little on the landing side, and that just caught him out.
He made amends next time at Naas, however, in a good two-and-a-half-mile novices’ handicap chase. Always handy, he eased his way to the front as they embarked on their final circuit, he jumped well and he stayed on well all the way to the line to beat Champagne James by a length, the pair of them clear.
The handicapper raised him 7lb for that, but that was not harsh, it was strong form. Also, it brings him up to a mark of just 132, just 1lb higher than his hurdles mark. Given his size and scope, you have to think that the Colm Murphy-trained gelding will be a better chaser than a hurdler. He is just eight and he has raced just six times over fences, so he has the potential to go a fair way beyond that rating now over fences.
The step up to three miles and five furlongs will be a big step into the unknown. He has never raced over a distance in excess of two miles and six furlongs over fences and, on his only attempt at three miles over hurdles, he disappointed.
That said, he is built and bred to be a staying chaser. By top stayer Westerner, he is a half-brother to staying chaser Panther Claw, and he is out of a mare who won over two miles and six furlongs, a half-sister to Thyestes Chase winner Be My Belle. He should stay three miles at least, and there is every chance that he will stay further. In fact, it is probable that he will improve for the step up to staying trips now. He looks over-priced at 14/1.
There are many others with chances. (It is an Irish National after all.) The Ted Walsh-trained Champagne James has a similar profile to Empire Of Dirt’s, and Barry Connell’s horse could run a big race, although he is another who has to prove his stamina for this extreme trip, and his pedigree is not as stamina-oriented as Empire Of Dirt’s.
The Job Is Right and Perfect Gentleman, from the Michael Hourigan and Willie Mullins yards respectively, represent strong form from the National Hunt Chase, a race that can be a good pointer to the Irish National, while last season’s Thyestes Chase runner-up, the Jim Dreaper-trained Los Amigos, could easily make amends for last year, when he was ruled out of the Irish National at the 11th hour. (National disaster.)
Grand Jesture has more weight than ideal, but Henry de Bromhead’s horse won his beginners’ chase at the track and he ran a cracker to finish second to The Druids Nephew at the Cheltenham Festival. And then there is Cantlow. If Cantlow happened to win it, if AP McCoy could sign off in Ireland with victory in the Irish Grand National, well that would be a strong argument for the instigation of a National holiday.
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