Cheltenham November meeting

[mayo]

The Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham is among a number of options considered for Orgilgo Bay following his front-running demolition job in the Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle.
The dual-purpose gelding was recording the fourth, and by far the most significant, win of his career when beating Annagh Haven by a convincing five lengths.

Trainer John McConnell said: "He's come out of Listowel well and took the race fine. We have no immediate specific plans yet. There are a number of handicap hurdles to look at before Christmas. He will probably have one more run and have a break then."

McConnell went on: " He was put up 8lb for winning at Listowel, which seems about right.

"He won well, but it was against his own age group. It was a very nice race to win and the style he did it in was great. Hopefully he can keep improving.

"We thought he wanted soft ground when he was a baby but as he's got older he seems to handle better ground really well, and we'd nearly be staying away from soft ground at this point.

"He is a beautiful mover so he does handle top of the ground very well, and he's probably able to jump out of quick ground even better than soft.

"His next run will more than likely be over hurdles and then we'll probably give him a break.

"The Greatwood at Cheltenham in November is an obvious race he could go for, but we might even go for something a little less ambitious and then let him off and bring him back for the spring."

[mayo]

Balthazar King is actually a good price at 5/4 tomorrow.

Geraghty has a nice book of rides tomorrow and riding out of his skin.

However, I’m in three of the remaining four contests on Friday and they would all have realistic chances of hitting the target.

Perhaps the most interesting of the trio is PARLOUR GAMES (3.00) in the Grade 2 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs.

I’ve had a good bit of success this season for his trainer, John Ferguson, and this one was a rare reversal when I rode him at Kempton three weeks ago.

We were travelling very well turning for home in a listed two-mile novice hurdle but he could only stay on at one pace and was beaten four lengths by Blue Heron.

He’d been off for two and a half months and he gave a very heavy blow afterwards and in hindsight he was probably in need of the run.

John knows exactly where he stands with his jumpers and I’m certain that Parlour Games will be much more tuned up for this.

There are another couple of plus points, firstly the ground which should be decent – and I think he wants that – second he’s moving up from two miles to two miles five.

Although this horse has pace, he also has stamina, too, and as a three-year-old on the flat won the mile and six Melrose Handicap at York.

The extra trip should allow him to travel into the race and produce his pace up the hill. I think there’s plenty to like about his chances and a hood for the first time should help him relax.

Nicky Henderson has never really had a clear run with CUP FINAL (4.05), who I ride for the first time in the two miles and five furlong Michael Scudamore Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.

He showed potential in his three runs last season when the best was probably his first when he finished four lengths second to Irving at Taunton.

He was beaten by the same horse next time in a Grade 2 and his only other run was in the Neptune at Cheltenham in March so taking in a Class 3 handicap off a debut rating of 125 doesn’t look an impossible task by any means. In fact, this could be a good starting point to make up for lost time.

I start the day on FESTIVE AFFAIR (1.50) for Jonjo in the two-mile Paddy Power Handicap Chase and he’s another that I’ll be riding for the first time.

Having looked over his form it is apparent that he took time to find himself last season but won well over two miles at Newbury in January and was given a debut mark of 134 in the two mile five furlong Rewards4Racing Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

He didn’t quite last at that first attempt at the trip having led at the eleventh. He has been on the pace in his races but it’s possible that he’ll have relaxed a bit more which will give him a better chance of getting it right this season.

[Morning Glory]

Morning Mayo et al


Winning trainers at Cheltenham this season with runners today:

2/6--Nigel Twiston-Davies (10/1 & 5/4)--6 runners today
Benbens (1.15)--Astracad & Hollow Blue Sky (1.50)--Splash Of Ginge (2.25)--Blaklion (3.00)--Rally (4.05)

2/9--Jonjo O'Neill (9/4 & 5/1*)--3 runners today
The Nephew (1.15)--Festive Affair (1.50)--Champagne Present (3.00)

1/2--Neil Mulhalland (9/1)--2 runners today
Minella Present (3.00) & Commitment (4.05)

1/3--John Ferguson (4/9*)--1 runner today
Parlour Games (3.00)

1/3--Evan Williams (6/4*)--4 runners today
De Faoithesdream & Going Concern (1.50)--Bullett Street (2.25)--Upsanddowns (3.00)

1/6--Paul Nicholls (7/2)--3 runners today
Port Melon (3.00)--Sire Collonges (3.35)--Morito Du Berlais (4.05)

1/6--David Pipe (11/4*)--4 runners today
Broadway Buffalo (1.15)--Montaire (1.50)--Dell' ARca (2.25)--Knight Of Noir (4.05)

1/8--Philip Hobbs (8/1)--5 runners today
Bold Henry (1.50)--Colour Squadron & Champagne West (2.25)--Balthazar King (3.35)--River Deep (4.05)

[Morning Glory]

Going to oppose the two big shorties blaklion and cup final. Fancy Ruby for a double.

[Old Vic]

Have gone through the stats for the Paddy Power http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/...d-Cup-2014-305 and taken the 7/1 each way 5 places with the sponsors for Buywise.

[Old Vic]

Paddy Power Racing @pphorseracing 32s32 seconds ago

We are money back as a free bet all fallers in every race at Cheltenham's @paddypower Meeting #PPGC #moneybackspecial

[racecaller13]

The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle is the highlight on day 3 of Cheltenham’s November meeting, on Sunday 16th November. It is a 2M 110y handicap hurdle and is open to 4yos and upwards. It usually attracts a high class field and recent winners include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim and Menorah.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 3-7-36

5yo: 4-9-48

6yo: 2-5-31

7yo: 1-1-19

8yo: 0-3-13

9yo+: 0-1-12

4 & 5 year olds have won 7 of last 10 from just over 52% of total runners.

Of the ten 4yos to make the frame, 8 had run on the flat, with 6 of those rated 80+ on the level and the other 2 were winners in France with no rating in Britain or Ireland. 4 of the 10 ran in Triumph Hurdle that year (including 2 winners) and 2 had run in Fred Winter.

In the past 15 years the only two winners that were aged over 6 were Khyber Kim in 2009 (went on to finish 2nd in Champion Hurdle and win grade 1 Aintree Hurdle that season) & Rooster Booster in 2002 (who won Champion Hurdle later that season).



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 5-6-42

Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 1-9-51

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-11-66

Preference is for higher weights, horses carrying 11-4+ have won 5 of 10 from less than 27% of total runners.

Top Weight: 4012820318087 (2-3-12) have a good record, having won 4 of the last 12.

Horses carrying a penalty (0-3-4) have gained 5 places from 6 runners since 2003.



Official Ratings

Horses rated 140 or more: 6-11-55

Horses rated 130 to 139: 2-11-77

Horses rated 129 or less: 2-4-27

Horses officially rated 140+ have won 6 of last 10 from approximately 34.6% of total runners.

9 of 10 winners were racing off a career high mark in a handicap hurdle (although 7 of 10 winners were making their handicap hurdle debut)



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed hurdles start (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded hurdle)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last two hurdles runs

8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (1 exception was Olofi who was 5th & 2nd in two previous runnings)

9 of 10 winners had run no more than 9 times over hurdles (8 of 10 had run in 3 to 6 hurdles)

9 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles (exception had run in 8 previously)

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (9 had yet to win a handicap hurdle)

7 of 10 winners were running in their first handicap hurdle

6 of 10 winners had run on the flat (5 who had run in Britain were rated 94+ on the level, other had only run in France on flat)

3 of 10 winners had won a bumper in Ireland

9 of 10 winners had run in a listed or graded hurdle on their previous NH start

7 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better hurdle (1 exception was a group 2 winner on the flat)



Other Races

Record of horses that finished in first 9 in Triumph Hurdle: 251850712 (2-2-9)

Highest placed finisher from Anniversary 4YO Hurdle: 272170 (1-2-6)

Share.com More People H'cap Hurdle winner (Existas): 20 (0-1-2)

AP Security Juvenile Handicap Hurdle winner (Raven's Tower): 09 (0-0-2)

Giftofracing.co.uk Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle winner (Roman Flight): 708 (0-0-3)

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Top Novices' Hurdle, finishing 29

2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 19

3 of last 4 winners aged 6+ ran in County Hurdle, finishing 100

6 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (22nd & 16th in County Hurdle, 13th & 1st Supreme and 1st & 9th Triumph)



Trainers

Philip Hobbs (2-0-15) has trained the winner in 2002, 2006 & 2010.

Paul Nicholls (1-3-11) has gained 2 wins and 3 places from his 12 runners since 2003.

Gary Moore (1-2-8) saddled the winner in 2008 and also had 2 other placed finishers since 2004.

Tom George (1-1-3), David Pipe (1-1-7) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) have also trained the winner once in past 10 years.

Venetia Williams (0-1-1), Willie Mullins (0-1-3) and Nicky Henderson (0-1-5) have all saddled a placed finisher in past 10 years.

Irish based trainers (2-3-32) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals. Both Irish-trained winners were NH bred 5yos that had won a Punchestown Hurdle in April/May and were having their first run in a handicap hurdle.



Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners were held up early on (the two winners that raced prominently throughout were top class grade 1 hurdlers Detroit City & Sizing Europe).



Price

10 of 10 winners were sent off at 12/1 or lower

Generally this is a race in which market leaders dominate, 6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting.

Favourites (2-3-12) have won 2 of last 10 renewals & show a level stakes loss of 3.47.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 or a 4yo that is rated 80+ on flat & ran in 2014 Triumph or Fred Winter Hurdle

- Officially rated 140+ over hurdles (racing off career high mark)

- Official rated 94+ on the flat (or won an Irish bumper)

- Finished in the first two on last NH start (ideally in a class 1 hurdle)

- First or second season hurdler (or placed in this last year)

- Previously run 3 to 6 times over hurdles

- Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (handicap debutante favoured)

- Yet to win a handicap hurdle

- Won a hurdle at class 2 level or better

- Ran in a class 1 hurdle at 2014 Cheltenham Festival

- Tends to be held up

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Tom George or Gary Moore

- Priced 12/1 or shorter


- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....EPX1EdZs.dpuf

[racecaller13]

The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 15th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 14th to 16th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-3-13

6yo: 3-5-33

7yo: 6-9-50

8yo: 1-5-42

9yo: 0-7-22

10yo+: 0-0-19

Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-17-96

Horses aged 8+: 1-12-83

None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-8-67

Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 5-21-112

Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 5 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more from less than 38% of total runners.

Top Weight: 04FPP65PPP (0-1-10)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 150 or higher: 1-7-46

Horses rated 139 to 149: 8-12-88

Horses rated 138 or less: 1-10-45

8 of 10 winners were officially rated 139 to 149 from less than 50% of total runners.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point wand was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F)

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better

5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle, one other placed in listed handicap chase)

5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)

5 of 5 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences

10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Johns Spirit): 0 (0-0-1)

Marie Curie Cancer Handicap Chase winner (Johns Spirit): 43F28531 (1-4-8)

Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Present View): 1F3P5 (1-1-5)

Record of first 7 from Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P521 (3-4-15)

Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novice Chase winner (Oscar Whisky): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous year's Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (Taquin De Seuil): 1P (1-0-2)

Molson Coors H'cap Chase winner (Lamool): 4 (0-1-1)

Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Uzixandre): 846 (0-1-3)

Greatwood Gold Cup winner (Shangani): 96 (0-0-2)

Silver Trophy Chase winner (Buywise): PU7 (0-0-3)

Timeform Novice H'cap Chase winner (Indian Castle): 6UF (0-0-3)

Fairlawne Chase Handicap winner (Double Ross): PPPP (0-0-4)

Byrne Group Plate winner (Ballynagour): 77PP600 (0-0-7)

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Pulteney Land Investments Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 167

2 of 2 third season chaser winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing F2

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in John Smith's H'cap Chase, finishing 63

7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival



Trainers

The Pipe stable (3-1-15) have accounted for 4 of the last 12 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-11) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-14) trained the winner in in 2008 & 2010 and a placed finisher in 2007 & 2009.

Jonjo O’Neill (2-1-10) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006 & John’s Spirt to win it last year.

Paul Nicholls (1-3-20) saddled the winner & 3 places finishers in the last 10 years.

Nicky Henderson (0-6-19), Phillip Hobbs (0-4-10) and Alan King (0-4-10) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2004.

Irish based trainers (1-2-19) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.



Price

The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.

Favourites (2-3-10) have gained 2 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2004 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 2.00.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7

- Officially rated 139 to 149

- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase

- Had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree

- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F

- Second or third season chaser (preferably 2nd season chaser)

- Previously run less than 10 times over fences

- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

- First 3 in 2013 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup

- Ran in a chase at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival

- Finished in first 7 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase

- Trained in Great Britain

- Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Jonjo O’Neill

- Favourite does well
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....CYpIFw2H.dpuf

[mayo]

A few tips from my old mate the Reinman


16:05 Friday 14th November
Racing Tips - 14/11/2014

Two horses in the McManus colours I put up at the end of last term were Festive Affair and Bold Henry and I like them both today. The latter is certainly well treated but has a bit to prove on his first chase start in 2 years. Festive Affair will certainly appreciate this return to shorter and he's a nice bet at 7/1. He didn't seem to get the trip last time here but ran well and his Newbury win prior to that saw him beat a couple of 140 horses. He was in receipt of weight but 132 makes him well treated today on ground he seems to like. Shangani looks worth support too at a very generous 25/1. He ran well here last year at the festival in the last race on day 1 off 2lb higher over a trip that probably just stretches him. This will be sharp enough but there'll be a good pace and if the rain comes he'll shorten right up for a yard in form.
Cheltenham 13.50 - Festive Affair 1pt e/w
Cheltenham 13.50 - Shangani 1pt e/w

The excellent novice chase on the card looks a fair betting heat given who is favourite and I'll take Champagne West who gets weight from a few of these and who should take some stopping if only slightly improving on his hurdles form as breeding suggests he should. His form, 10 lengths behind Beat That, 1 length ahead of Deputy Dan and not beaten far in the Albert Bartlett, is very strong and the market leader hasn't won for nearly 3 years. Dell' Arca is clearly a danger but I have him a little below Champagne West on hurdles ability and the selection is bigger in the market at 4/1.
Cheltenham 14.25 - Champagne West 1pt win

In the last I like Morito Du Berlais. He had a wind op in the summer and won very well last time beating The Nephew. Whilst that runner is better over fences, his form suggests a mark of 120 for the selection is very fair and there should be more to come. He has the tongue tie reapplied which is worth noting and I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm basing the race around River Deep, who is very likeable, and who is 16lb worse off with Cloudy Beach so he must get a mention. Morito Du Berlais was also in that Newton Abbot race and has a 10lb pull for a thrashing but he was sent off the same price as River Deep so wasn't unfancied. He looks a new horse after a wind-op and hopefully they go a proper gallop here to give him the test he needs at 10/1.
Cheltenham 16:05 - Morito Du Berlais 1pt e/w

[mayo]

Going to oppose the two big shorties blaklion and cup final. Fancy Ruby for a double.

Ruby pair backed here too. Champagne Present on my to follow list and doubt Martin is sending one over for the hell of it.