2013 King George Chase Thread

[Old Vic]

Barry Geraghty sounds hopeful enough for Riverside Theatre but Al Ferof " is a potential gold cup horse"

The King George VI Chase is a real jumping classic and I’ve been on the winner twice with Kicking King in 2004 and 2005.

I’m back this year for another crack on RIVERSIDE THEATRE (3.10, Thursday) who was 12 lengths second to Long Run two years back and once again I can see him doing very well in what is an extremely open and highly-competitive race where it’s pretty hard to leave any of the nine runners out of calculations.

The biggest plus for my horse could well be the application of a hood and blinkers. When I rode him to win at Huntingdon last time it was pretty hard work over a trip that’s now on the short side but he showed plenty of heart to win.

It was decided afterwards that he was worth a try in blinkers and when I schooled him in them last week he was electric and felt very sharp and focused.

Huntingdon would have bought him on and he has no issues with ground. With the blinkers sharpening him up I honestly believe that we can figure in this.

I have plenty of respect for Cue Card on his Haydock win when he had Dynaste, Silviniaco Conti and Long Run behind.

But I am also a big Al Ferof fan. To my eye he is a potential Gold Cup horse and he’ll love this trip which he’ll be getting for the first time. I think that the Paddy Power he won in 2012 was as good a running of the race as there’s been in recent years.

Of those that ran at Haydock I’d expect plenty of improvement from Silviniaco Conti and likewise Dynaste who were both having their first outings whereas Cue Card and Long Run had been out before. The gap is definitely going to shrink.

If the visor first time sparks Long Run then he becomes a player, too, given his form in this race reads 121.

[Old Vic]

Timeform View

Timeform run the rule over the runners for the big race on Boxing Day...

Al Ferof won the 2011 Supreme Novices' (Cue Card fourth) and even better as a chaser, showing top-class form when taking Paddy Power Gold Cup on reappearance last season. Perfect return at Ascot and an exciting prospect.

Champion Court is high-class on his day, as he showed when runner-up to Riverside Theatre in the Peterborough Chase recently, when he might well have won but for his saddle slipping after the last. This is a lot tougher, though.

Cue Card is a top-class chaser (triple Grade 1 winner) and showed he's fully effective at 3m with decisive success in the Betfair Chase at Haydock from Dynaste. Disappointing in this in 2012 but better coming now.

Dynaste was the leading staying novice in Britain last term, his four wins including a runaway success in the Feltham over C&D. Sound return behind Cue Card at Haydock and still low mileage. Strong claims.

Long Run won the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup and has a fine record in this race, winning two of the last three renewals and second to Kauto Star on the other occasion. Has a cloud hanging over him heading into this year's running, though, after two low-key runs this term.

Menorah is often let down by jumping but capable on his day, winning the Peterborough Chase last season and also runner-up in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree and Silver Trophy at Cheltenham. Looks up against it on this first run since April.

Mount Benbulben put up a big effort when winning the 3m Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown in April by a wide margin, but jumping problems resurfaced on his return and he won't get away with mistakes here.

Riverside Theatre gained his first win since the 2012 Ryanair when landing the Peterborough Chase earlier this month from Champion Court. Favoured by race conditions that day though (received weight from most) and this race is tougher.

Silviniaco Conti was one of the leading stayers last term, the Betfair Chase among his three wins, and yet to be asked for effort when falling three out in the Gold Cup. Sound return at Haydock and should be spot on here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Al Ferof
2. Dynaste
3. Cue Card

Timeform view: Cue Card clearly has plenty going for him, but it's expected that he'll be hassled more in front here than he was in the Betfair Chase. A race-fit Dynaste may well give him more to think about this time, but the vote goes to Al Ferof, whose sound jumping and high cruising speed should see him thrive around this track.

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[racecaller13]

oxing Day or St Stephens Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and the last 9 renewals of the race have been won by shared between just 3 horses, Kicking King, Kauto Star & Long Run.



Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:



Age (for age purposes we will assume the race run in 2010-11 season was run in 2010)

5yo: 1-0-2

6yo: 2-4-14

7yo: 3-6-24

8yo: 1-3-25

9yo: 1-2-15

10yo: 0-3-9

11+: 2-0-9

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 6-10-40

Compare that to horses aged 8 or older of 4-8-58.

Kauto Star has accounted for 3 of the 4 winners aged 8+.



Breeding

French bred: 8-10-44

Irish bred: 2-5-35

GB bred: 0-3-16

German bred: 0-0-3

French-bred horses have won last 7 and have accounted for 18 of 28 places in last 10 runnings from approximately 44.9% of total runners.



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners won on their last completed start (3 exceptions placed)

8 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 170+ last time

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)

8 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases

7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD (2 others having first course start)



Other Races

Previous year's winner (Long Run): 0111132 (4-2-7)

Highest placed finisher from previous King George: 4501411132 (4-2-10)

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 1112 (3-1-4)

Highest placed finisher from Cheltenham Gold Cup: F514112P (3-1-9)

Record of horses that finished in first 3 in Cheltenham Gold Cup: 1311121P1 (6-1-9)

Betfair Chase winner (Cue Card): P11711 (4-0-6)

Highest placed finisher from Betfair Chase: P1171511 (5-0-8)

Denman Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): F121 (2-1-4)

Ascot Chase winner (Cue Card): 216 (1-1-3)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Sir Des Champs): 315 (1-1-3)

Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Roi Du Mee): P13P (1-1-4)

Feltham Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): P61 (1-0-3)

Peterborough Chase winner: 4334P (0-2-5)

RSA Chase winner (Lord Windermere): 2 (0-1-1)

Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 3 (0-1-1)

Amlin1965 Chase winner (Al Ferof): 6P2 (0-1-3)*

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Harry Topper): 6P4 (0-0-3)

Ryanair Chase winner (Cue Card): PP5P6 (0-0-5)

7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U112

6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing 111132

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21

2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 1P

2 of 10 winners ran in Denman Chase, finishing 11

6 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 112133

10 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at previous season's Cheltenham Festival

2 of 2 second season chasers to win this had placed in Arkle or RSA



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (5-2-14) has won 5 of the last 7 renewals with Kauto Star.

Nicky Henderson (2-3-11) saddled Long Run to finish 1st-2nd-1st in last 3 runnings.

David Pipe (0-3-10) & Philip Hobbs (0-2-5) have both saddled multiple placed finishers in past 10 years, and saddled the 3rd & 2nd respectively last year.

Irish-trained runners (2-0-4) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, both Kicking King. Willie Mullins hasn’t had a runner in this in past 10 years but he did saddle Florida Pearl to finish 2nd & 1st in the first 2 runnings of the race this century.



Price

The last 9 winners came from first 2 in the betting.

Edredon Bleu at 25/1 in 2003 has been only winner to be sent off greater than 9/2 since 2003.

7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 6.06.


Conclusion:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 or 7

- French bred

- Has run 1 to 3 times this season

- Won last time out in the past 40 days (posting RPR of 170+)

- Won over 3M+

- Won 2 or more Grade 1 chases

- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over this CD

- Finished in first 3 in last season’s King George and/or Gold Cup or

- Second season chaser who placed in 2013 Arkle or RSA Chase

- Finished in first 3 in the 2013 Betfair Chase

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson

- From first 2 in the betting (priced no bigger than 8/1)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....tuat7bh5.dpuf