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The Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase takes place at Navan on Sunday 24th November and is one of the highlights of Navan’s National Hunt calendar. A grade B handicap chase run over 3 miles it is a very strong trends race with the majority of winners being unexposed chasers prominent in the market.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-2
6yo: 1-3-21
7yo: 3-9-49
8yo: 2-5-48
9yo: 2-7-38
10yo: 1-2-11
11yo+: 0-0-7
Horses aged 5 to 7: 5-13-72
Horses aged 8+: 5-14-104
All 3 winners aged 9+ had run in 10 or fewer chases (and 3 or fewer handicap chases).
Breeding
Irish bred: 9-24-144
French bred: 1-1-13
British bred: 0-2-17
Other: 0-0-2
Irish bred horses have won 9 of 10, though they represented almost 81.8% of total runners.
Both French bred horses to make the frame were aged 7.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10+: 2-10-69
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-17-107
2008 winner, Notre Pere, and last year’s winner, Tofino Bay, have been the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9. Notre subsequently won the Welsh National and the grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup while Tofino Bay won a grade 2 novice chase and finished runner-up in the 4M novice chase at Cheltenham and the 3M grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown.
Top Weight: 37055349456 (0-4-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 133 or higher: 2-6-35
Horses rated 118 to 132: 7-14-111
Horses rated 97 to 117: 1-7-30
7 of last 8 winners were officially rated between 118 and 134.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had last run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last chase start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (9 had won over 2M 6F+)
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Navan
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had previously run in 10 or fewer chases (exceptions had run in 14 & 16)
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 6 & 9 handicaps)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 handicap chases)
8 of 10 winners were second season chasers (exceptions were 1st & 3rd season chasers)
7 of 10 winners had run in a Grade B or higher chase (2 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Tofino Bay): 37 (0-1-2)
Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Sweeney Tunes): 043 (0-2-3)
Cork National winner (Sword Fish): 722 (0-2-3)
Red Mills Chase winner (Chicago Grey): 3 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (Panther Claw): P0 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Munster National winner (Raz De Maree): 80 (0-0-2)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Tofino Bay): 09P50 (0-0-5)
2 of last 11 winners ran in the EBF Novice Handicap Chase here in March, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Kerry National, both unseating
4 of last 7 ran in a handicap chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing P1P3 (last year’s winner had won a hurdle at that year’s Punchestown festival)
Trainers
Tony Martin (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 places in past 6 runnings.
Dessie Hughes (1-1-9) trained the winner last year and 3rd in 2010.
Willie Mullins (1-1-10), Ted Walsh (1-0-2), Christy Roche (1-0-3) & Jim Dreaper (1-0-3) have all trained the winner once in past 10 years.
Terrence O’Brien (0-2-2) has saddled Glenquest to be placed in 2010 & 2012.
Noel Meade (0-2-18) has managed just 2 places from his 18 representatives.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
There have been no major shocks since 2003 with all 10 winners coming from first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 4.33.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 8 (or aged 9+ but run in fewer than 3 handicap chases)
- Carrying 10-9 or less (or finished in first 4 in a graded chase last time)
- Officially rated 118 to 134
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed chase start (posted RPR of 125+)
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Won over 2M 6F+
- Course winner
- Run in 10 or fewer chases (winning 1 to 4)
- Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than 1)
- Second season chaser
- Previously contested a Grade B or higher chase
- Ran in a handicap chase at 2013 Punchestown Festival
- Trained by Tony Martin, Dessie Hughes or Willie Mullins
- Priced 10/1 or below
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....Y6xktvhY.dpuf
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-1-2
6yo: 1-3-21
7yo: 3-9-49
8yo: 2-5-48
9yo: 2-7-38
10yo: 1-2-11
11yo+: 0-0-7
Horses aged 5 to 7: 5-13-72
Horses aged 8+: 5-14-104
All 3 winners aged 9+ had run in 10 or fewer chases (and 3 or fewer handicap chases).
Breeding
Irish bred: 9-24-144
French bred: 1-1-13
British bred: 0-2-17
Other: 0-0-2
Irish bred horses have won 9 of 10, though they represented almost 81.8% of total runners.
Both French bred horses to make the frame were aged 7.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10+: 2-10-69
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-17-107
2008 winner, Notre Pere, and last year’s winner, Tofino Bay, have been the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9. Notre subsequently won the Welsh National and the grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup while Tofino Bay won a grade 2 novice chase and finished runner-up in the 4M novice chase at Cheltenham and the 3M grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown.
Top Weight: 37055349456 (0-4-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 133 or higher: 2-6-35
Horses rated 118 to 132: 7-14-111
Horses rated 97 to 117: 1-7-30
7 of last 8 winners were officially rated between 118 and 134.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had last run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last chase start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (9 had won over 2M 6F+)
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Navan
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had previously run in 10 or fewer chases (exceptions had run in 14 & 16)
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 6 & 9 handicaps)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 handicap chases)
8 of 10 winners were second season chasers (exceptions were 1st & 3rd season chasers)
7 of 10 winners had run in a Grade B or higher chase (2 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Tofino Bay): 37 (0-1-2)
Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Sweeney Tunes): 043 (0-2-3)
Cork National winner (Sword Fish): 722 (0-2-3)
Red Mills Chase winner (Chicago Grey): 3 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (Panther Claw): P0 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Munster National winner (Raz De Maree): 80 (0-0-2)
Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Tofino Bay): 09P50 (0-0-5)
2 of last 11 winners ran in the EBF Novice Handicap Chase here in March, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in Kerry National, both unseating
4 of last 7 ran in a handicap chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing P1P3 (last year’s winner had won a hurdle at that year’s Punchestown festival)
Trainers
Tony Martin (1-2-7) has trained the winner and 2 places in past 6 runnings.
Dessie Hughes (1-1-9) trained the winner last year and 3rd in 2010.
Willie Mullins (1-1-10), Ted Walsh (1-0-2), Christy Roche (1-0-3) & Jim Dreaper (1-0-3) have all trained the winner once in past 10 years.
Terrence O’Brien (0-2-2) has saddled Glenquest to be placed in 2010 & 2012.
Noel Meade (0-2-18) has managed just 2 places from his 18 representatives.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
There have been no major shocks since 2003 with all 10 winners coming from first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 4.33.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 8 (or aged 9+ but run in fewer than 3 handicap chases)
- Carrying 10-9 or less (or finished in first 4 in a graded chase last time)
- Officially rated 118 to 134
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed chase start (posted RPR of 125+)
- Ran in the last 30 days
- Won over 2M 6F+
- Course winner
- Run in 10 or fewer chases (winning 1 to 4)
- Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than 1)
- Second season chaser
- Previously contested a Grade B or higher chase
- Ran in a handicap chase at 2013 Punchestown Festival
- Trained by Tony Martin, Dessie Hughes or Willie Mullins
- Priced 10/1 or below
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....Y6xktvhY.dpuf
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