Betfair Chase 2013

[Guest]

Gold Cup without Sir Des Champs

The Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 23rd November. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti won the race last year and may look to win it again.



Below we take a look at the trends for the 8 previous runnings:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 2-1-3

7yo: 1-2-12

8yo: 1-2-15

9yo: 2-2-14

10yo: 1-1-4

11yo+: 1-0-3

Horses aged 6 have gained 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runners.

3 of 4 winners aged 9+ had finished 1st or 2nd in a previous Betfair Chase, exception was Snoopy Loopy who benefitted from a final fence fall from Kauto Star.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 8 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start

6 of 8 winners posted an RPR of 168+ on last completed start

6 of 8 winners had run in 6 to 15 times over fences (2 exceptions were Kauto Star winning it for 3rd & 4th time)

7 of 8 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was Kauto Star on winning it for first time)

7 of 8 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 chase



Other Races

Previous year's winner (Silviniaco Conti): 61U (1-0-3)

Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 31112 (3-1-5)

Highest placed finisher from Gold Cup to run in this: 331U1123 (3-1-8)

King George winner (Long Run): 31U12 (2-1-5)

Highest placed finisher from King George to run in this: 331U1422 (2-2-8)

Denman Chase winner (Silviniaco Conti): 132 (1-1-3)

Previous season's Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): 1 (1-0-1)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Harry Topper): 76431 (1-0-5)

Lexus Chase winner (Tidal Bay): 225 (0-2-3)

Ryanair Chase winner (Cue Card): 2 (0-1-1)

Argento Chase winner (Cape Tribulation): 2 (0-1-1)

Aintree Bowl Chase winner (First Lieutenant): 235 (0-1-3)

Previous year's Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Bobs Worth): 34 (0-0-2)

5 of 8 winners ran in previous season's King George, finishing 21153

4 of 8 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 1113

3 of 8 winners ran in Old Roan Chase, finishing 123

3 of 8 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase last time, finishing 231

2 of 8 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 4P



Trainers

Paul Nicholls (5-0-8) saddled Kauto Star to win it 4 times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it last year.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) has saddled Imperial Commander to finish 1st & 2nd.

Nicky Henderson (0-2-2) saddled Long Run to finish 2nd in past 2 years.

David Pipe (0-1-2) trained the 2nd in 2008 and 3rd in 2009.



Price

7 of 8 winners were priced 8/1 or below

The only winner not to come from the first 3 in the betting was Snoopy Loopy, who was a slightly fortuitous winner.

The favourite (4-2-8) have won 4 of the 8 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 0.52.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- 6yos do well

- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start

- Posted an RPR of 168+ last time

- Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)

- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase

- Won over 3 miles or further

- Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time

- Finished in first 3 in 2012 King George & 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup

- Priced 8/1 or shorter

- Trained by Paul Nicholls
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....0Cb9nSBa.dpuf

[Old Vic]

It looks like being a brillant renewal.

Looking at field

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 21/11- Bobs Worth253 8 11-7 Nicky Henderson59 Barry Geraghty 180 171 188
2 1103-1 Cloudy Too20 7 11-7 Sue Smith53 150 141 167
3 5112-3 Cue Card18 7 11-7 Colin Tizzard33 Joe Tizzard 172 162 185
4 11121- Dynaste232 7 11-7 David Pipe56 Tom Scudamore 159 134 174
5 2132-5 Long Run21 8 11-7 Nicky Henderson59 171 143 181
6 1/12-3 Prince De Beauchene21 10 11-7 W P Mullins73 155 42 165
7 11-F21 Roi Du Mee21 8 11-7 Gordon Elliott57 168 129 173
8 111F3- Silviniaco Conti233 7 11-7 Paul Nicholls72 Noel Fehily 173 162 182
9 3P247- The Giant Bolster233 8 11-7 David Bridgwater29 Denis O'Regan 164 153 175
10 121-1 Tidal Bay21 12 11-7 Paul Nicholls72 171 174 181

Prince De Beauchene a NR so matching remaining horses to those stats

- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start

- Posted an RPR of 168+ last time

- Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)

- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase

- Won over 3 miles or further

- Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time

- Finished in first 3 in 2012 King George & 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup

- Priced 8/1 or shorter

Bobs Worth matches 8
Tidal Bay 7
Silvi Conti 6?
Dynaste 5?
Long Run 4?

My niggle with Bobs Worth is that somehow I dont see the Betfair Chase as being anything like as important for connections to win as the Hennessy was first time out last year. Dynaste won the fixed brush around here and the Pipe stable seems to be in better form than either that of Henderson or Nicholls. Unless Bobs Worth drifts out to something like 3/1 it might be a race to watch imo.

[Terry]

Bobs worth pretty weak on betfair this evening ?

[mayo]

A few tipsters have put up SC.

[Sizing]

great field but not a race that excites me. Not enough history

[Sizing]

Bobs wins Btw.

[mayo]

Delighted for Tizzards. They have done well with that horse. Not sure what to make of it from a form perspective. Last years Gold Cup might have taken its toll but woudnt be writing of BW just yet.