Epsom Derby 2013

[Lester]

Lets get straight to it ... will Dawn Approach stay?

[Lester]

Lets get straight to it ... will Dawn Approach stay?

Is talking to yourself a sign of madness ?

The case for and against was put by Donn McClean in sportinglife

There are plenty of pointers to the negative. For starters, Jim Bolger's horse won the first juvenile race of the 2012 turf Flat season at The Curragh over five furlongs. You would never think that a colt who had the pace and the precocity to win that race, in March 2012, would go on to be a Derby horse in June 2013.

Secondly, he won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Have a look down through the recent roll of honour for the Coventry Stakes: Power, Strong Suit, Canford Cliffs, Art Connoisseur, Henrythenavigator. All milers and seven-furlong horses and sprinters. Top-class horses for sure, but if they were Classic horses, they were Guineas horses, not Derby horses. Go back further, through Royal Applause and Dilum and Mac's Imp and Rock City and Chief Singer, and you will struggle to find a horse who wanted to go further than a mile.

Thirdly, his dam, Hymn Of The Dawn, raced five times for Jim Bolger: three times over six furlongs, once over seven furlongs and once over a mile. She never went beyond a mile. Her only other winner to date, Comadoir, is a six-to-seven-furlong horse, and she is by Phone Trick, a top class sprinter whose progeny are generally precocious and fast.

And fourthly, Jim Bolger says that if Sheikh Mohammed hadn't bought into the horse, he might not have even been entered in the Derby, that he wasn't viewing him last year as a mile-and-a-half horse.

That said, there are also plenty of pointers to the positive. There is the very fact that he is set to be Jim Bolger's sole representative in the race. That is significant, given that the trainer has a ready-made Derby horse in Trading Leather, who still holds a precautionary Derby entry, and another in Loch Garman, who doesn't.

And dig a little deeper into Dawn Approach's pedigree. His second dam is by Pleasant Colony, sire of Jim Bolger's Irish Derby and King George winner St Jovite and an influence for stamina. His third dam is by Alydar, the horse who would have been a Triple Crown winner were it not for the fact that he was born in the same year as Affirmed, and sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Alysheba, and broodmare sire of Arc winner Peintre Celebre. And Dawn Approach's fourth dam is by Sea-Bird, just about the best Derby winner ever.

Then there is his sire, New Approach, a dual Guineas runner-up but also a Derby winner, Champion Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes winner, by Galileo, one of the most prolific stallions of the modern era and a stamina influence.

There is also his class and his demeanour. Unlike his sire, Dawn Approach is relaxed at home, relaxed on the racecourse. If he wasn't so talented, you could describe him as lazy. New Approach pulled Kevin Manning's arms out for the first four furlongs of the 2008 Derby, yet still had enough in reserve to repel Tartan Bearer. There should be no such issue with Dawn Approach. His rider should be able to ease him down around Tattenham Corner, conserve his energy, and wait until the two-furlong pole has passed him by before asking his horse for his effort.

There is no doubting Dawn Approach's ability. He is unbeaten in seven races now, he won the Coventry Stakes, the Irish National Stakes and the Dewhurst Stakes last year, and he won the 2000 Guineas by five lengths on his only run to date this year. His trainer was a little worried that he hadn't packed quite enough work into him before the Guineas, his seasonal debut, and he expects him to have improved for the run. If he stays the trip, he will almost certainly win.

The Guineas is back in vogue these days as a Derby trial, insofar as a Classic can be a Classic trial, after about a decade and a half in the wilderness. Four of the last seven Derby winners came to Epsom via Newmarket, and there is a big chance that Dawn Approach will make it five from eight.

Id be in the Ryan Moore camp

Anyway, believe the evidence of your own eyes, is all that I am saying. And that evidence is that Dawn Approach goes into the Investec Derby next week as very much the one to beat.

But would I back him at even money? No.

I have never ridden a horse that has gone straight from a Guineas to a Derby, but it is clearly a massive ask. And the extra problem that connections of Dawn Approach have is that he goes into the race as so much the best horse in it form-wise that he has a big target on his back.

But I've always found that if people ride their race, or races, to beat others, they invariably get themselves beaten.

I have a lot of respect for Dawn Approach but I wouldn't be in a rush to take evens, given the stamina unknown. It found out Hawk Wing, who went from an unlucky second in the Guineas to finish runner-up to High Chaparral at Epsom, and it may do with him.

[Derby]

Hi Lester,

Been lurkingh for a while and will save you from your madness

But would I back him at even money? No.

Dont have to ...11/10 with Paddys and Victor.

[mayo]

Id give Mars a shout.

[Statto]

Epsom Derby Trends
11/11 - Raced within the last month
11/11 - Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/11 - Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 - Won a Group race before
9/11 - Won from a single-figure draw
8/11 - Placed favourites
8/11 - Won their last race
7/11 - Had run over 1m2f previously
7/11 - Had won a Group One previously
4/11 - Favourites
4/11 - Irish-trained winners
3/11 - Won the Dante Stakes last time out
1/11 - Winners from stall 12 or higher
0/11 - Raced at the track previously
0/11 - Won over 1m4f previously

[flatman]

Id give Mars a shout.

From our man Donn

Mars is the forgotten horse of the race. Promoted to the top of some Derby lists on the back of a maiden win at Dundalk, his sole start last year, the son of - yes you've guessed - Galileo ran more than adequately to finish a staying-on sixth in the Guineas on his only subsequent start to date over a trip that would have been far too sharp for him.

[Lester]

Was a fascinating race. Headgear stat blown out of the water.

Meeting news...




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CROWD FIGURE ON INVESTEC DERBY DAY
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A crowd of 120,000 attended Investec Derby Day at Epsom Downs today.
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That compares with 130,000 people at the 2012 Investec Derby, when festivities surrounding the Queen's Diamond Jubilee boosted the attendance.
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Rupert Trevelyan, Jockey Club Racecourses' Regional Director, London, said: "Both the main grandstands were sold out as well as all the hospitality areas and it has been a fantastic day.
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"Operationally, it ran very smoothly with some marvellous racing on a historic track. St Nicholas Abbey made history by winning a third Investec Coronation Cup and the Investec Derby was a thrilling race.
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"Attendance has been slightly down on the Hill today, but we believe the Diamond Jubilee factor had a role to play in the very high crowd number last year.
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"Investec Derby Day is the highest-attended sporting occasion in Britain each year."
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INVESTEC DERBY FESTIVAL LEADING TRAINER
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TRAINER** Wins** 2nd** 3rd
Richard Fahey* 2** 1** 2
Aidan O'Brien* 2** -** -
David Simcock* 2** -** -
Richard Hannon* 1** 4** -
Ralph Beckett* 1** 1** -
Clive Cox** 1** -** 1
Roger Charlton* 1** -** -
John Gosden* 1** -** -
Stuart Kittow* 1** -** -
Jonathan Portman 1** -** -
Sir Michael Stoute 1** -** -
David O'Meara* -** 2** -
Elaine Burke* -** 1** -
Mick Channon* -** 1** -
Paul Cole** -** 1** -*
Mikel Delzangles* -** 1** -
Jeremy Gask* -** 1** -
Mark Johnston* -** 1** -
Andrew Balding* -** -** 2
David Barron* -** -** 1
Michael Bell** -** -** 1
Marco Botti** -** -** 1
Henry Candy* -** -** 1
Peter Charalambous -** -** 1
Ed Dunlop** -** -** 1
William Haggas* -** -** 1
John Ryan** -** -** 1
David Wachman** -** -** 1
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INVESTEC DERBY FESTIVAL LEADING JOCKEY
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JOCKEY** Wins** 2nd** 3rd
Ryan Moore** 3** -** 2
Richard Hughes* 2** 2** -
Martin Lane** 2** -** -
William Buick* 1** 2** -
Neil Callan** 1** -** -
James Doyle* 1** -** -
Richard Kingscote* 1** - **-
Joseph O'Brien* 1** -** -
Frederik Tylicki* 1** -** -
Jimmy Quinn* 1** -** -
Jamie Spencer* -** 2** 2
Daniel Tudhope* -** 2** -
Jim Crowley* -** 1** -
John Fahy** -** 1** -
Joe Fanning** -** 1** -
Kieran O'Neill* -** 1** -
Tom Queally* -** 1** -
Silvestre de Sousa -** 1** -
Hayley Turner* -** -** 2
Cathy Gannon* -** -** 1
Graham Gibbons* -** -** 1
Paul Hanagan* -** -** 1
Rosie Jessop* -** -** 1
Adam Kirby** -** -** 1
Wayne Lordan* -** -** 1
Kirsty Milczarek* -** -** 1
Dane O'Neill* -** -** 1

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