QIPCO 2000 Guineas 2013

[flatman]

Right I'Ll have a go again

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group 1 winner, that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas or won Irish Derby
· Born before 07/04/2010
· Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 86+
· Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)
· Previously won at least 2 races
· Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)
· Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
· Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)
· Won a group race
· Won the Dewhurst and/or National Stakes
· Won over 7F or 8F
· Trained in Ireland (especially by Aidan O’Brien)

[Lester]

Not a betting race for me ..good analysis from Pat Keane

So, are you a player or a layer when it comes to Dawn Approach in this afternoon’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket?
BIG DANGER: Toranado provides stiff opposition to Dawn Approach.
Pat Keane: THE VOICE OF RACING
Have no doubt about it, this will be a savage betting race on the exchanges. Those who want to have a major wager on Dawn Approach will be accommodated for literally any amount.

There will be no messing, no hassle, just a press of a button or a phone call and, as soon as first Classic of the season can be muttered, you will be on.

There will be thousands and thousands of sterling and euro lined up to lay Dawn Approach.

Many will take the view that he is perfectly beatable and a ridiculous price.

Our old friends, Ladbrokes, and indeed Boylesports, were at it this week, asking punters to come out to play at evens, when 11-8 was freely available.

Or, perhaps, they were telling punters not to come out to play, at least not with them, and to please go elsewhere.

I have long been a big fan of Dawn Approach and he certainly did us a few favours last season.

He is obviously the most likely winner, with all the word emerging from Jim Bolger’s more than positive.

This game, however, is all about value and, at least as far as I’m concerned, it has long evaporated when it comes to the son of New Approach.

He was a bit of a monster last season, winning all six of his starts and is a colt of real courage and determination.

But there are one or two reasons to be worried about him here.

The first is the level of opposition, headed by Richard Hannon’s Toronado, who looked a quality horse when scoring on his reappearance at Newmarket last month.

There are others who have a life as well and you just don’t know what the Ballydoyle inmates might produce.

The biggest worry for me, though, is the surface. I believe, given cut in the ground, that Dawn Approach would be almost impossible to beat.

He showed a distinct liking for such a surface last season, but it doesn’t look as if he is going to get it now.

At say 6-4 or less, on ground good or even better, one is inclined to be a layer. At bigger odds then watching the race for educational purposes seems the best course to take.