Kentucky/Guineas Yankee

[HoldenTheReins]

"Kentucky Derby 2025: First Resort has stress fracture, will miss Triple Crown"

[HoldenTheReins]

I can't remember if We've put him up before, I've lost count
but definitely worth backing with that 101 Beyer.

Any thoughts on Twain for the 2000 Guineas?
I've already backed him just in case and I know everyone's predicting he'll be going to France but whilst his odds are still pretty decent it might be worth a shot to nothing.

I've been looking at Aidan's string outside of The Lion In Winter and he's of interest but so is Expanded.

Hard to know how he'll split his pack at this moment.

[HoldenTheReins]

I assume Journalism has a 4lb penalty in the San Felipe?

[HoldenTheReins]

Opera Ballo certainly looks a group horse.

How they split him, Shadow Of Light and Ancient Truth i don't know.

[Zachx02]

I assume Journalism has a 4lb penalty in the San Felipe?

Where you seen that mate?

[parimutuel]

Opera Ballo certainly looks a group horse.

How they split him, Shadow Of Light and Ancient Truth i don't know.

He looked the part, hope he keeps on improving

[HoldenTheReins]

Where you seen that mate?

Equibase has him on 124 weight and the others are on 120 so assuming it's a graded penalty

[Zachx02]

Some trader at 365 in a WhatsApp chat I'm in is saying LV and TLIW won't run in the guineas, no idea what he's seen but he's fairly reliable

[HoldenTheReins]

Some trader at 365 in a WhatsApp chat I'm in is saying LV and TLIW won't run in the guineas, no idea what he's seen but he's fairly reliable

Sort of lines up with Aidan's early comments on taking it slow with those two.

Lake Victoria has been drifting of late also.

Aidan seemed to indicate Expanded and Fairy Godmother would be his guineas horses.

[Morley Street]

Can’t stop feeling the Godolphin Yankee is the way to go this year… the tough one to call is the 2000 but as Ancient Truth was the first horse I’ve backed ante post for it and he now seems to be in favour judging by the recent betting moves, I’ve opted for him:
Ken Oaks - Good Cheer
Ken Derby - Sovereignty
2000 - Ancient Truth
1000 - Desert Flower
around 800/1 for the acca

[FinalFurlong91]

Just watching back the big 2yo uk races to jog my memory

the ones that impressed me were

Shadow of light super impressive winning the middle park and won the dewhurst despite being on the wrong side of the track

but given how much speed he showed in the middle park, will he stay in the guineas and will he train on? He's a half brother to earthlight who also won the middle park but didn't hit the heights at 3

Commonwealth cup? Or even the jersey if he dissapoints beforehand

Don't really like the form lines featuring Henri matisse and camile pissaro

The obrein horse i like the look of is Twain who won his maiden then won a group 1 8 days later. Hed have won that race in france by miles had he not been so green. Perhaps he could be more of a Derby horse than a guineas one though as he got outpaced for a few strides before getting going in france and you can't do that in a guineas.

Hotazhell won the racing post trophy from delacroix which again looks fairly muddling form.

Really struggling to pin one down atm

Shadow of light looks the best on 2yo form but a mile might be a furlong to far for him.

Ancient truth has vital course experience but hes not shown me quite enough and his dam didnt train on from 2 to 3.

A puzzle this year me thinks

Will watch the fillies races now

[FinalFurlong91]

We have a shortie for the 1000

Desert flower who won the fillies mile and the may hill beating obrein filly January both times

The question here is does obrein have something better than January

The answer is obviously yes in lake victoria who won the moyglare, the Cheveley park and the breeders cup juvenile fillies

If she were to run id be strong on her but that doesn't sound all that likely

He also has Fairy Godmother who won at Royal ascot rattling home but then got injured and never got the chance to run over further

Exactly is another one of his and he's won this with several similar types who ran loads of times at 2 didn't look anything special then won the guineas. She definitely has that mother earth/hermosa type of profile (love was similar too but she did win the moyglare)

Another puzzle

Think il wait and if lake victoria doesn't run will surely get a nice price on exactly

[HoldenTheReins]

Just watching back the big 2yo uk races to jog my memory

the ones that impressed me were

Shadow of light super impressive winning the middle park and won the dewhurst despite being on the wrong side of the track

but given how much speed he showed in the middle park, will he stay in the guineas and will he train on? He's a half brother to earthlight who also won the middle park but didn't hit the heights at 3

Commonwealth cup? Or even the jersey if he dissapoints beforehand

Don't really like the form lines featuring Henri matisse and camile pissaro

The obrein horse i like the look of is Twain who won his maiden then won a group 1 8 days later. Hed have won that race in france by miles had he not been so green. Perhaps he could be more of a Derby horse than a guineas one though as he got outpaced for a few strides before getting going in france and you can't do that in a guineas.

Hotazhell won the racing post trophy from delacroix which again looks fairly muddling form.

Really struggling to pin one down atm

Shadow of light looks the best on 2yo form but a mile might be a furlong to far for him.

Ancient truth has vital course experience but hes not shown me quite enough and his dam didnt train on from 2 to 3.

A puzzle this year me thinks

Will watch the fillies races now

Twain's form isn't stacking up.

What I don't understand is Expanded getting Newmarket experience last year but might go to the Irish guineas, hmmm....

[FinalFurlong91]

Twain's form isn't stacking up.

What I don't understand is Expanded getting Newmarket experience last year but might go to the Irish guineas, hmmm....

I was looking at him then went to the derby market expecting 14s-20s and he's 8/1 lol

Wouldn't expect the form of that saint cloud race to be strong

He was miles the best really but he was very green. The question is was it greeness or is he a dodgepot as he was throwing his head all over the place when he hit the front

not many horses win a group 1 8 days after their racecourse debut he could be a big improver at 3

I'm not sure obreins colts are much good with a view to the guineas (queue him having the 1-2-3)

[Morley Street]

Twain's form isn't stacking up.

What I don't understand is Expanded getting Newmarket experience last year but might go to the Irish guineas, hmmm....

Doesn’t make sense does it, unless Twain is working the house down… Hills sticking at 8s for now