Kentucky/Guineas Yankee

[Monty's Pass]

2025 Selections

November Yankee
Muhimma 25/1 Barnes 25/1
Lion in winter 6/1
Lake victoria 3/1

(Individual best price)



Starting this thread with a view to getting some selections put up for the 1000/2000 Guineas and the Kentucky Derby and Oaks. If you fancy a horse for any of these races then drop a comment with a bit of reasoning and at the end of each month I'll narrow it down to four selections to put in a Yankee and hopefully come May we'll have six live bets heading into Kentucky and Newmarket

November Yankee
ROSALLION 12/1
SEE THE FIRE 20/1
CANDIED 12/1
LOCKED 25/1

December Yankee
ROSALLION 10/1
ONE LOOK 12/1
LIFE TALK 16/1
EL CAPI 40/1

January Yankee
WHITE ABARRIO 8/1
FALLEN ANGEL 8/1
CANDIED 12/1
FIERCENESS 10/1

February Yankee
TARIFA 12/1
FOREVER YOUNG 20/1
OPERA SINGER 5/1
OCEAN OF DREAMS 20/1

March Yankee
CITY OF TROY 4/6
FALLEN ANGEL 9/2
OUR PRETTY WOMAN 12/1
SIERRA LEONE 6/1

April Yankee
CITY OF TROY 4/6
RAMATUELLE 10/1
JUST FYI 11/2
SIERRA LEONE 11/4

[Morley Street]

City of Troy takes a massive chunk out of the guineas market and whilst I have him in the book at bigger, even money is stupidly short this far out. Rosallion at 12s represents each way value and a viable alternative imo. Form looks rock solid after the performances of Ancient Wisdom and Unquestionable and we know that Hannon will be training him with one race in mind.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'd make a case for see the fire in the 1000 guineas

Ran a cracker in the fillies mile, looking the horse with the most natural ability to me but not streetwise enough and lost due to greeness

should progress plenty over the winter being by sea the stars out of a dubawi mare

looks good value at 20/1 to me

[Zachx02]

One Look for the 1000 guineas, effortless victory in the goffs million on debut, has an entry in the Irish equivalent already, whether twomey will send her over is another matter but he's sent a fair few over for the big meets in recent years

[Monty's Pass]

No suprise that Fierceness (12/1) heads the betting for the KD after bouncing back from a dissapointing run in the champagne stakes to dominate his rivals in the Breeders cup Juvenille scoring comfortably by 6 1/4 lengths. Given a 105 beyer for that win which is the biggest in the last 10 years and made several G1 winners in behind look average who seemed to run to form albeit not improving much matching their beyers from Lto. Pletcher is confident he'll stay the trip and will likely take the same route as Forte on the way to Kentucky by taking in the Fountain of youth (March 2nd) and Florida Derby (March 30th) so we're not likely to see him again until then although the Holy Bull (Feb 3rd) was also mentioned.
Given there's 6 Yankees to pick between now and early May there's no rush to get him in although I think 12/1 is decent as I think Forte opened at 10/1 this time last year and I see Fierceness being a more promising animal.
Would like to have him in at least 2 come May but it's very early days on the Derby trail.

Worth noting that Pletchers more fancied runner Locked was a fast finishing 3rd having been shuffled back and not dealing with the kick back (currently 20's) I was impressed with his attitude and willingness to go by horses and that despite having to get to work on him early he still was able to stay on in the straight and quicken and didn't throw in the towel.

Nysos (33's) mentioned by a couple already looked impressive in his debut win but would need to move barns to earn Derby points so that's something to keep an ear out for in the new year along with Bafferts other potentials.

[Monty's Pass]

Going on holiday tomorrow for a couple of weeks so going to put this up a few days early.
Not too much to go off this month which is understable given how far out we are.

Decided on the below,

2000 Guineas
ROSALLION
As Morley mentioned the market is dominated by City of Troy but he's not a yankee proposition at that price this far out, Rosallion makes a suitable selection at around 12/1 for the Hannon team and looked good in France when last seen, arguably unlucky not to be undefeated and with a winter under his belt the son of Blue Point could have a big say come May 4th.

1000 Guineas
SEE THE FIRE
Tough call between the selection and One Look, I'm sure the latter will make it into one of these when we see an entry.
As FinalFurlong said she was green in the fillies mile and just hung left under pressure but ran a great race only going down late on to Ylang Ylang. The 20/1 available for See The Fire looks very fair considering her narrow conquerer in the Fillies Mile is half the price. Connections will know what it takes having had Alcohol Free go off joint fav for the 2021 edition and she could well be steered by Oisin Murphy on May 5th.

Kentucky Oaks
CANDIED
I don't have a strong opinion on this race at the moment but liked the way the Pletcher runner stayed on for 3rd in the Juvenile Fillie's after having to go wide around the bend. Would have liked a little bigger than 12/1. She should be on the premises come Oaks day.

Kentucky Derby
LOCKED
I'm a big fan of Fierceness and I think 12/1 is very fair after his dominant win at the Breeder's Cup but I thought it was a good opportunity to get his stable mate and more fancied runner on the day in this Yankee at 25/1.
Didn't show great speed out of the gate in that race and ate a lot of kick back as a consequence when he had to settle at the rear and come wide to make his bid, made up a fair amount of ground albeit in vain as the winner was long gone. The 2nd horse Muth also ran very well being up with the pace throughout but just couldn't live with Fierceness' turn of foot off the bend. All in all an extremely difficult race to find the winner of on the day let alone 6 months out but I like the price and expect Locked and Fierceness not to meet again until Kentucky Derby day so he could well head there unbeaten in his 3yr old season.

All odds with PP.

November Yankee
ROSALLION 12/1
SEE THE FIRE 20/1
CANDIED 12/1
LOCKED 25/1

I'm sure everyone is aware but best to check the max payout for international antepost/future bets with whichever bookie you use. I'll be putting on a win and e/w yankee for this month. Good luck all.

[Morley Street]

Nice one MP… like the each-way play this far out, I’m in!

[Morley Street]

For the next Yankee shall we open it up to all races… might get more opinion?

[parimutuel]

I like it MP, cheers

Have a nice holiday, hope you're going somewhere hot!

[Monty's Pass]

For the next Yankee shall we open it up to all races… might get more opinion?

Yeah that's a good shout, I think November and December were always going to be slim pickings but should heat up towards the end of January, I do like the idea of having the yankee settled over the same weekend but if anyone has a strong fancy for another flat race domestic or international then feel free to put forward and if we're struggling for a pick it could definitely be included

[Monty's Pass]

I like it MP, cheers

Have a nice holiday, hope you're going somewhere hot!

Cheers certainly am! Off to Bahrain with the wife for some guaranteed sun.

[parimutuel]

Lovely, no snow on the forecast there then, enjoy!

[Zachx02]

missed this, im on!

[Zachx02]

Might be worth keeping an eye out in the coming weeks for some of the KY derby qualifying races at oaklawn in the coming weeks, could use one or 2 of the winners in the here.

[Monty's Pass]

Might be worth keeping an eye out in the coming weeks for some of the KY derby qualifying races at oaklawn in the coming weeks, could use one or 2 of the winners in the here.

Definitely, be some good ones to come out of them surely. What did you make of Mage's brother Dornoch last weekend?