Originally posted by Zachx02
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Kentucky/Guineas Yankee
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Originally posted by Zachx02 View PostI'm on too, played a cheeky SP fav and forever young KY Derby too, will have be in a nice position with sierra leone and him on side provided he wins
Three of the four previous runnings of the $1.5-million G3 Boutique Group Saudi Derby had been decided by less than a length, including a them-versus-us showdown last year when the locally based Commissioner King (Commissioner) outlasted America's Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) by a head in a real war of attrition. Susumu Fujita's Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel
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Originally posted by parimutuel View Post
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Right, it's time for the penultimate yankee and after an action packed weekend of international racing I've decided on the below.
2000 Guineas
City of Troy
Short but has to be in one of these and the only other runner I actually like is Rosallion who's made it in to two of these so far. Time will tell whether he's as good as they say he is but we've all heard the hype and seen the form so not much else to say really.
1000 Guineas
Fallen Angel
Real shame regarding the news about Opera Singer, i thought the February yankee was looking pretty good until then. Knee jerk was to include Ylang Ylang as the substitute but I'm not as keen on her form as I was Opera Singer or indeed the selection Fallen Angel. She's made it in before so case has been made already and she's beaten YY going away at the Curragh although obviously not Ylang's true running. If O'Brien trained Fallen Angel I think she'd have been antepost fav all year and the 9/2 without Opera Singer now is still fair.
Kentucky Oaks
Our Pretty Woman
Ran a great race on only her second start behind Tairfa recently and although beaten fair and square by the winner she didn't go down by much and has the potential to progress and improve nicely going into Kentucky. Without too many in behind the fav to get excited about I think she's a reasonable shout at 12/1 with potential to improve enough to get her head in front. Had a 91 beyer on debut and posted a 98 behind Tairfa (99) last time out. Thorpedo Anna was an impressive winner of the fantasy stakes at the weekend and she put some decent horses away easily recording a career best 91. Said to have needed time between races to see her at her best I wouldn't be so sure she'd be able to back that win up or improve sufficently upon that run in 5 weeks time so being a similar price to Our Pretty Woman I've opted to chance her this month at 12/1.
Kentucky Derby
Sierra Leone
Some great racing in Dubai and the States at the weeknd with regards to the Derby and two impressive winners in Forever Young and Fierceness both of whom have made it into a yankee so far.
Fierceness was great and I've always liked him but he needs so much to go right for him and is now not a backable price for Kentucky especially before the post draw. If on song and drawing well, breaking well, getting an uncontested lead he could romp home but it's too many ifs and buts at this stage, I'm happy to leave him be now.
Forever Young ran a cracker in Dubai, drew wide although helped slightly by a couple on non runners, he stalked the pace and stayed out of the kick back to come round the bend and take things up off the home turn. Jock always looked happy and once he got upsides the leader it was never in doubt he'd stretch out to win. Much like Fierceness the reluctance to take the kick back is a concern as he'd do well to go 4 wide all the way round and still have enough in the tank to power up the home stretch but he's definitely a classy individual and if he can get a plum draw and nice position he has the class to give Japan a first KD.
Sierra Leone is this month's selection, winner of the Risen Star he looks a cut above the likes of Track Phantom, Catching Fredom and Honor Marie. Could well have been unbeaten if not bumping into a resilient Dornoch back in December but I'd forgive him that on only his second start and would expect him to reverse that form easily if they met again. He did lose out in a battle there but hopefully that was just down to inexperience rather than anything lack of fight. Can handle the slop and with the other two winning at the weekend his price has stayed not terrible at 6/1
Still a real puzzle but there's a big big chance the winner comes from one of those three. Post draws will have a major effect so its possible that whoever draws best will make it into the final yankee next month. If it were also to be a sloppy track I'd be interested in Mystik Dan at 25's+
March Yankee
CITY OF TROY 4/6
FALLEN ANGEL 9/2
OUR PRETTY WOMAN 12/1
SIERRA LEONE 6/1
Prices with 365
Good luck.
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Originally posted by Monty's Pass View PostRight, it's time for the penultimate yankee and after an action packed weekend of international racing I've decided on the below.
2000 Guineas
City of Troy
Short but has to be in one of these and the only other runner I actually like is Rosallion who's made it in to two of these so far. Time will tell whether he's as good as they say he is but we've all heard the hype and seen the form so not much else to say really.
1000 Guineas
Fallen Angel
Real shame regarding the news about Opera Singer, i thought the February yankee was looking pretty good until then. Knee jerk was to include Ylang Ylang as the substitute but I'm not as keen on her form as I was Opera Singer or indeed the selection Fallen Angel. She's made it in before so case has been made already and she's beaten YY going away at the Curragh although obviously not Ylang's true running. If O'Brien trained Fallen Angel I think she'd have been antepost fav all year and the 9/2 without Opera Singer now is still fair.
Kentucky Oaks
Our Pretty Woman
Ran a great race on only her second start behind Tairfa recently and although beaten fair and square by the winner she didn't go down by much and has the potential to progress and improve nicely going into Kentucky. Without too many in behind the fav to get excited about I think she's a reasonable shout at 12/1 with potential to improve enough to get her head in front. Had a 91 beyer on debut and posted a 98 behind Tairfa (99) last time out. Thorpedo Anna was an impressive winner of the fantasy stakes at the weekend and she put some decent horses away easily recording a career best 91. Said to have needed time between races to see her at her best I wouldn't be so sure she'd be able to back that win up or improve sufficently upon that run in 5 weeks time so being a similar price to Our Pretty Woman I've opted to chance her this month at 12/1.
Kentucky Derby
Sierra Leone
Some great racing in Dubai and the States at the weeknd with regards to the Derby and two impressive winners in Forever Young and Fierceness both of whom have made it into a yankee so far.
Fierceness was great and I've always liked him but he needs so much to go right for him and is now not a backable price for Kentucky especially before the post draw. If on song and drawing well, breaking well, getting an uncontested lead he could romp home but it's too many ifs and buts at this stage, I'm happy to leave him be now.
Forever Young ran a cracker in Dubai, drew wide although helped slightly by a couple on non runners, he stalked the pace and stayed out of the kick back to come round the bend and take things up off the home turn. Jock always looked happy and once he got upsides the leader it was never in doubt he'd stretch out to win. Much like Fierceness the reluctance to take the kick back is a concern as he'd do well to go 4 wide all the way round and still have enough in the tank to power up the home stretch but he's definitely a classy individual and if he can get a plum draw and nice position he has the class to give Japan a first KD.
Sierra Leone is this month's selection, winner of the Risen Star he looks a cut above the likes of Track Phantom, Catching Fredom and Honor Marie. Could well have been unbeaten if not bumping into a resilient Dornoch back in December but I'd forgive him that on only his second start and would expect him to reverse that form easily if they met again. He did lose out in a battle there but hopefully that was just down to inexperience rather than anything lack of fight. Can handle the slop and with the other two winning at the weekend his price has stayed not terrible at 6/1
Still a real puzzle but there's a big big chance the winner comes from one of those three. Post draws will have a major effect so its possible that whoever draws best will make it into the final yankee next month. If it were also to be a sloppy track I'd be interested in Mystik Dan at 25's+
March Yankee
CITY OF TROY 4/6
FALLEN ANGEL 9/2
OUR PRETTY WOMAN 12/1
SIERRA LEONE 6/1
Prices with 365
Good luck.
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Originally posted by Zachx02 View Post
I'm on, I think maybe after May we focus on the Breeders Cup races? There's great value to be had on them, I know flightline was double figures for a while for the classic, last year I snagged elite power before his reappearance, can't remember what though upon plenty others
I'm hoping the Kentucky/Guineas yankees yield a couple of winners at least and a profit would be nice but I think next season I'll start it at the end of December and maybe rotate the strike as it were, have members that want to select one month each and pick final selections for that month. I'm sure yourself and Parimutuel would be up for picking us some winners
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Originally posted by Monty's Pass View Post
Absolutely, love the old BC. Classic market has been up for a while but I don't think the other races get priced up until maybe late August? If someone wants to do a Royal Ascot yankee that would be good too, probably be able to get a couple of months in and could even do a daily yankee if there's interest.
I'm hoping the Kentucky/Guineas yankees yield a couple of winners at least and a profit would be nice but I think next season I'll start it at the end of December and maybe rotate the strike as it were, have members that want to select one month each and pick final selections for that month. I'm sure yourself and Parimutuel would be up for picking us some winners
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The KY Oaks picture should become clearer for the April Yankee too after the Ashland. Just FYI returning after five months ( looks like she's working well ) against a pretty strong field, should be a great race.
Monty's Pass More than happy to do a shift or two for next year's yankee, really enjoyed it
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Last Yankee where we need to just pick the winners.
Easier said than done
City Of Troy and Content for me in the English guineas.
American racing isnt my forte but trying to get into it but will leave those to Zachx02Monty's Pass and parimutuel
Firceness and Tarifa look solid.
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Originally posted by HoldenTheReins View PostLast Yankee where we need to just pick the winners.
Easier said than done
City Of Troy and Content for me in the English guineas.
American racing isnt my forte but trying to get into it but will leave those to Zachx02Monty's Pass and parimutuel
Firceness and Tarifa look solid.
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Final yankee and the pressure is on!
Post draws for Kentucky will be on 27th I believe, could make a big difference to the likes of Fierceness who wouldn't want to be too wide or too low and get shuffled back down the rail or go 5 wide most of the way. I think Sierra Leone would be the least inconvenienced by a 'bad' draw given his run style.
Personally only City of Troy and Rosallion are sticking out for me in the 2000. Rosallion is in a couple already although the ones he's in have taken a hit with non runners. Leaning towards adding Troy again at the moment.
The Kentucky Oaks has always been a difficult one for me personally to find the winner, seems to be something from left field that always crops up and improves markedly on the day but Leslie's Rose was impressive last time out and Just FYI is entitled to come on from her run too. Tarifa has been very solid if not spectacular. Might just come down to price with 3 or 4 you could make a solid case for.
1000 guineas wouldn't be a confident pick from me, I read that Brilliant will be aimed there now but for me it's another race where you could have 10 different winners if run 10 times. Hoping Fallen Angel goes well though.
With that said how about we all take a race each for this final yankee? I'd be happy to take the 2000.. (sorry) HoldenTheReins would you be OK to take the 1000? and Zachx02 parimutuel take one of the Kentucky races?
Could put our selections in after the post draws on Saturday night or Sunday 28th and hopefully we'll have ourselves a payday with 4 winners!
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